You guys check out the stats on bubbleinfo?

[Coronita]

Hot November Sales

Yup….

[Coronita]

Things ain’t looking better in CarmelV

Peak Pricing Coming to CV

[an]

You can look at redfin for those data. I did just that earlier today and for my area in July 2011, there were over 160 houses for sale. Today, there’s 25. That’s a massive decline. Too bad redfin doesn’t have data back further. Would be interesting to see what supply was like at the peak. Price everywhere I look is up as well.

[bearishgurl]

This link was in JTR’s article … these tips by local Broker Kris Berg are so relevant for today’s buyers:

…Multiple offers. Aargh! I have been on both the sending and receiving side too often lately. And believe me when I tell you that “fun” doesn’t begin to describe it, unless you consider watching the hopes and dreams of a dozen first-time buyers being extinguished in casual, reply-to-all fashion to be a real laugh fest.

So what is a would-be buyer to do? There is no magic formula to getting your offer accepted in a multiple situation, of course, but there are some things you should consider in order to have a fighting chance.

1. Do NOT wait until you find your dream home to sit down with your agent and go through the contract. You won’t have time. Do a dry run before you start looking. Familiarize yourself with the forms and the process. That way, when the time comes, you will be ready to point and shoot. Speed counts.

2. Do NOT wait until you find your dream home to begin considering how nice the neighbors are, how great the local school test scores are, and how competitive the prices at the nearest dry cleaner might be. You won’t have time. While you are driving the commute route in the morning, the evening, and on weekends just to “make sure,” while you are canvassing the neighbors about barking dogs and other demographics, and while you are polling your friends and coworkers about the merits of homeownership in light of recent events in Syria, someone else has purchased the darn house.

3. Do NOT wait until you find your dream home to submit all of your documentation to a lender. New listings – the good ones – last hours, not days or weeks. And no one will look at your offer without a solid pre-approval letter tethered to it.

4. Comps, schmomps. Of course you need to understand neighborhood values and comparable sale prices. But do not forget that we are in an (albeit gradually) appreciating market. Granted, there are some external unknowns that may impact our real estate market (rising interest rates, fiscal cliffs). But, for the foreseeable future, prices are not going down. More to point, when there are many, many offers on a home, offering below asking price is not a good strategy, because the fact that this home at it’s current price and condition has attracted numerous interested buyers should tell you something about perceived market value. You aren’t going to steal it. Either you want it or you don’t.

5. A home is worth what it is worth to you. Let me explain. I recently had clients ask me what the “right” price was for a home they were interested in, what it was “worth” – this, a home that already have four offers. A home is ultimately worth what a buyer is willing to pay, and with multiple offers, it will be worth something different to different people. The “right” price in a multiple situation is the price at which you would be happy to consummate the purchase if selected but would be comfortable sleeping nights knowing you gave it your best if your aren’t. In other words, take your best shot. You are not operating from a position of uber-strength here. The whole “let’s leave a little room for negotiating” strategy is not necessarily the best strategy in multiple offer scenarios, as you may never get the chance to don your Donald Trump hat.

6. Do NOT muddy your offer with stupid stuff. If the seller says that their washer and dryer do not convey, do not write an offer asking for the washer/dryer, the pot rack, the sectional sofa and the family schnauzer. And give them stuff that doesn’t cost you anything – shorter timeframes or a larger deposit. Sometimes, it comes down to the devil being in the details.

7. Pick a good – no – a GREAT agent. I cannot emphasize enough the importance of having a seasoned, experienced agent on your side. You see, a whole lot of stuff goes on behind the scenes. A great agent is lobbying for you – groveling, even, on your behalf. They are talking to the listing agent (I know; it’s crazy) — about the seller’s expectations, wants and needs, and about the nature of the competing offers before writing the offer so that yours might have the best chance of standing out. They are following up after submittal – to confirm receipt, yes, and to answer questions and generally ensure that, worst case, you get a counter offer. It is their job to try and keep you in the game. And the offer has to be well written. As a listing agent, I am always amazed at the offers I receive that are incomplete or incorrectly filled out. I am amazed at how many offers mysteriously show up in my inbox with no warning – no call or communication from the agent prior to or after submittal. This kind of stuff puts a buyer at a disadvantage, because no listing agent wants to work with a buyer’s agent that appears to be less than competent. They are going to have to live with them for the next 30 to 45 days…

IMO, ALL are excellent suggestions!

http://www.sandiegocastles.com/sandiegohomeblog/partying-like-its-2003-multiple-offers-aargh/

[carlsbadworker]

We are probably at the beginning of the next CA RE bubble.

[Reality]

[quote=carlsbadworker]We are probably at the beginning of the next CA RE bubble.[/quote]

In your dreams.

[scaredyclassic]

well. maybe a bathtub fart bubble?

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=JohnAlt91941]
In your dreams.[/quote]

Nightmare, you mean? Rising price isn’t doing any people here any good because I haven’t know any flipper here yet. You have to be a seller to benefit. I am just talking about the range of possibility, and this is a big one.

Even Economist is talking about “big long” for hedge funds in property market. CA is a safe bet with population growth.

[Coronita]

Need to mobilize more money…..Lol….

[spdrun]

Problem is that CA has chosen to accommodate overleveraged bum-losers and do everything to keep them in “their” homes. In a just world, they would be in the foreclosure process as we speak.

[carlsbadworker]

Overleveraged bum-losers are actually doing great and could be the seed of the next RE bubble.

Bruce Norris recently told a story happening in Moreno Valley, a person owed $250K on a 2-bedroom house. It went for $57K to one of the Norris Group’s investors, and the owner was given $25,000 to agree to the transaction. After closing costs, the lender netted $23 grand. But the owner who was current on the payment had $25 grand and was able to go buy another house right away since he was just given the money.

And then Bruce gave an example of someone who bought a house back in February for $205,000. This same house has already gone up to $285,000. When they tell this story to their friends who did not receive an $80 grand increase for anything and they began thinking they need to buy something, eventually that’s how the CA RE cycle runs. It almost never stays in a fair value because you will get people migrate into the state when the RE price is rising rather than the other way around. As a rational person, I cannot understand this but that’s how the process goes.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=spdrun]Problem is that CA has chosen to accommodate overleveraged bum-losers and do everything to keep them in “their” homes. In a just world, they would be in the foreclosure process as we speak.[/quote]

spdrun, don’t blame this “squatting into oblivion” phenomenon on “CA.”

This is largely due to the fault of “lender malaise.” And where ARE these lenders? MUCH more often than not, they are located out of state.

If you were successfully able to poll residents of FL, AZ and NV, for example, who managed to “squat” more than 24 months before being foreclosed upon, I think you might be shocked :=0

And the situtation has been infinitely worse in your neck of the woods where foreclosure requires a court order.

For a defaulted property owner/occupier residing in NY, they have been living a “squatter’s dream” in recent years.

[Coronita]

[quote=carlsbadworker]Overleveraged bum-losers are actually doing great and could be the seed of the next RE bubble.

Bruce Norris recently told a story happening in Moreno Valley, a person owed $250K on a 2-bedroom house. It went for $57K to one of the Norris Group’s investors, and the owner was given $25,000 to agree to the transaction. After closing costs, the lender netted $23 grand. But the owner who was current on the payment had $25 grand and was able to go buy another house right away since he was just given the money.

And then Bruce gave an example of someone who bought a house back in February for $205,000. This same house has already gone up to $285,000. When they tell this story to their friends who did not receive an $80 grand increase for anything and they began thinking they need to buy something, eventually that’s how the CA RE cycle runs. It almost never stays in a fair value because you will get people migrate into the state when the RE price is rising rather than the other way around. As a rational person, I cannot understand this but that’s how the process goes.[/quote]

+++ding ding ding…

[NotCranky]

[quote=squat250]well. maybe a bathtub fart bubble?[/quote]
In realtor speak a bathtub fart is called a jacuzzi, squat250. And when people are ready to believe it(again) we will have a bubble.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=carlsbadworker]Overleveraged bum-losers are actually doing great and could be the seed of the next RE bubble.

Bruce Norris recently told a story happening in Moreno Valley, a person owed $250K on a 2-bedroom house. It went for $57K to one of the Norris Group’s investors, and the owner was given $25,000 to agree to the transaction. After closing costs, the lender netted $23 grand. But the owner who was current on the payment had $25 grand and was able to go buy another house right away since he was just given the money.

And then Bruce gave an example of someone who bought a house back in February for $205,000. This same house has already gone up to $285,000. When they tell this story to their friends who did not receive an $80 grand increase for anything and they began thinking they need to buy something, eventually that’s how the CA RE cycle runs. It almost never stays in a fair value because you will get people migrate into the state when the RE price is rising rather than the other way around. As a rational person, I cannot understand this but that’s how the process goes.[/quote]

The MO of the “Norris Group” sounds “strangely similar” to the one a (well-connected) Chula Vista family used last year, which I described here:

http://piggington.com/shortsale_flopping_scams_when_will_it_stop#comment-222190

http://piggington.com/shortsale_flopping_scams_when_will_it_stop#comment-222241

These “enterprising homedebtors” managed to successfully strip ~400K of debt (incl late chgs) from their (prime) property and “squat” for 28 mos by getting a RE agent (relative) to “find” a “straw buyer” (other relative, lol) to purchase their property deeply short and then “rent” it back to them.

And they never even had to move or file for BK!

The ongoing “lender malaise” we have been seeing in the last 5+ yrs is fueled by GOV payments to them for sitting on their hands. This IS the cause of all the SS fraud being perpetuated on taxpayers and surrounding homeowners, IMO. And the fact that many of these lenders and 2nd TD “investors” are located out-of-state makes it easy for local agents and their “sellers” to perpetrate these kinds of fraud undetected.

[Author]

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