Worth reading: latest from Robert Prechter

[sjglaze3]

FYI, the British economist Roger Bootle wrote a great book entitled The Death of Inflation back in 1998, long before most people even thought about deflation.

[stockstradr]

At the risk of being ridiculed by this forum’s many “Gold Bugs”, I’ll share that the most recent position I established was last week my double-shorting gold with 10% of my overall portfolio. (ProShares ETF “GLL”)

Later I read this Prechter interview and noticed he also sees rough waters ahead for gold (in the near term).

Since I’ve plugged “GLL” I had better also note I believe all ETF’s must be viewed as HIGH RISK for price instability (read about what happened in the recent “flash crash”) during this next leg down. I will begin to avoid all ETF’s when this ugly final dark stage of the financial depression really gets going – which could have me completely abandon the ETF’s within 12 months.

A classic example is the contrast (in risk) between owning SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD, TYO: 1326, SEHK: 2840, SGX:GLD 10US$), compared to owning Central Gold Trust (TSX: GTU.UN, TSX: GTU.U, NYSE: GTU) where the latter is MANDATED by charter to keep the bulk of net assets in physical gold (and of course the best choice is simply buying physical bullion and storing OUTSIDE the USA). I say to anyone, if you have read the prospectus of SPDR Gold Trust, and you were not FRIGHTENED by the implied risks, then you’ve not understood what you’ve read.

As for being conservative as we now enter this next phase of the economic depression:

See the reference RP makes to “Bernard Baruch” implying that the ones who made money and kept it after the Great Depression, were those who understand they had to be EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE and very carefully diversified (or straight cash) during the second leg of the depression where things really got ugly and chaotic, which is analogous to the period we are today entering.

The implication is that these economic conditions are so EXTREME that entire categories of financial instruments will crash, or exhibit value fluctuations so wild that the chaos can easily wipe out a portfolio. Further, that some of it will be so random and unpredictable, that even smartest bets placed by the brightest can go bad, so careful and smart diversification is a must.

[stockstradr]

At the risk of being ridiculed by this forum’s many “Gold Bugs”, I’ll share that the most recent position I established was last week my double-shorting gold with 10% of my overall portfolio. (ProShares ETF “GLL”)

Later I read this Prechter interview and noticed he also sees rough waters ahead for gold (in the near term).

Since I’ve plugged “GLL” I had better also note I believe all ETF’s must be viewed as HIGH RISK for price instability (read about what happened in the recent “flash crash”) during this next leg down. I will begin to avoid all ETF’s when this ugly final dark stage of the financial depression really gets going – which could have me completely abandon the ETF’s within 12 months.

A classic example is the contrast (in risk) between owning SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD, TYO: 1326, SEHK: 2840, SGX:GLD 10US$), compared to owning Central Gold Trust (TSX: GTU.UN, TSX: GTU.U, NYSE: GTU) where the latter is MANDATED by charter to keep the bulk of net assets in physical gold (and of course the best choice is simply buying physical bullion and storing OUTSIDE the USA). I say to anyone, if you have read the prospectus of SPDR Gold Trust, and you were not FRIGHTENED by the implied risks, then you’ve not understood what you’ve read.

As for being conservative as we now enter this next phase of the economic depression:

See the reference RP makes to “Bernard Baruch” implying that the ones who made money and kept it after the Great Depression, were those who understand they had to be EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE and very carefully diversified (or straight cash) during the second leg of the depression where things really got ugly and chaotic, which is analogous to the period we are today entering.

The implication is that these economic conditions are so EXTREME that entire categories of financial instruments will crash, or exhibit value fluctuations so wild that the chaos can easily wipe out a portfolio. Further, that some of it will be so random and unpredictable, that even smartest bets placed by the brightest can go bad, so careful and smart diversification is a must.

[stockstradr]

At the risk of being ridiculed by this forum’s many “Gold Bugs”, I’ll share that the most recent position I established was last week my double-shorting gold with 10% of my overall portfolio. (ProShares ETF “GLL”)

Later I read this Prechter interview and noticed he also sees rough waters ahead for gold (in the near term).

Since I’ve plugged “GLL” I had better also note I believe all ETF’s must be viewed as HIGH RISK for price instability (read about what happened in the recent “flash crash”) during this next leg down. I will begin to avoid all ETF’s when this ugly final dark stage of the financial depression really gets going – which could have me completely abandon the ETF’s within 12 months.

A classic example is the contrast (in risk) between owning SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD, TYO: 1326, SEHK: 2840, SGX:GLD 10US$), compared to owning Central Gold Trust (TSX: GTU.UN, TSX: GTU.U, NYSE: GTU) where the latter is MANDATED by charter to keep the bulk of net assets in physical gold (and of course the best choice is simply buying physical bullion and storing OUTSIDE the USA). I say to anyone, if you have read the prospectus of SPDR Gold Trust, and you were not FRIGHTENED by the implied risks, then you’ve not understood what you’ve read.

As for being conservative as we now enter this next phase of the economic depression:

See the reference RP makes to “Bernard Baruch” implying that the ones who made money and kept it after the Great Depression, were those who understand they had to be EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE and very carefully diversified (or straight cash) during the second leg of the depression where things really got ugly and chaotic, which is analogous to the period we are today entering.

The implication is that these economic conditions are so EXTREME that entire categories of financial instruments will crash, or exhibit value fluctuations so wild that the chaos can easily wipe out a portfolio. Further, that some of it will be so random and unpredictable, that even smartest bets placed by the brightest can go bad, so careful and smart diversification is a must.

[stockstradr]

At the risk of being ridiculed by this forum’s many “Gold Bugs”, I’ll share that the most recent position I established was last week my double-shorting gold with 10% of my overall portfolio. (ProShares ETF “GLL”)

Later I read this Prechter interview and noticed he also sees rough waters ahead for gold (in the near term).

Since I’ve plugged “GLL” I had better also note I believe all ETF’s must be viewed as HIGH RISK for price instability (read about what happened in the recent “flash crash”) during this next leg down. I will begin to avoid all ETF’s when this ugly final dark stage of the financial depression really gets going – which could have me completely abandon the ETF’s within 12 months.

A classic example is the contrast (in risk) between owning SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD, TYO: 1326, SEHK: 2840, SGX:GLD 10US$), compared to owning Central Gold Trust (TSX: GTU.UN, TSX: GTU.U, NYSE: GTU) where the latter is MANDATED by charter to keep the bulk of net assets in physical gold (and of course the best choice is simply buying physical bullion and storing OUTSIDE the USA). I say to anyone, if you have read the prospectus of SPDR Gold Trust, and you were not FRIGHTENED by the implied risks, then you’ve not understood what you’ve read.

As for being conservative as we now enter this next phase of the economic depression:

See the reference RP makes to “Bernard Baruch” implying that the ones who made money and kept it after the Great Depression, were those who understand they had to be EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE and very carefully diversified (or straight cash) during the second leg of the depression where things really got ugly and chaotic, which is analogous to the period we are today entering.

The implication is that these economic conditions are so EXTREME that entire categories of financial instruments will crash, or exhibit value fluctuations so wild that the chaos can easily wipe out a portfolio. Further, that some of it will be so random and unpredictable, that even smartest bets placed by the brightest can go bad, so careful and smart diversification is a must.

[stockstradr]

At the risk of being ridiculed by this forum’s many “Gold Bugs”, I’ll share that the most recent position I established was last week my double-shorting gold with 10% of my overall portfolio. (ProShares ETF “GLL”)

Later I read this Prechter interview and noticed he also sees rough waters ahead for gold (in the near term).

Since I’ve plugged “GLL” I had better also note I believe all ETF’s must be viewed as HIGH RISK for price instability (read about what happened in the recent “flash crash”) during this next leg down. I will begin to avoid all ETF’s when this ugly final dark stage of the financial depression really gets going – which could have me completely abandon the ETF’s within 12 months.

A classic example is the contrast (in risk) between owning SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD, TYO: 1326, SEHK: 2840, SGX:GLD 10US$), compared to owning Central Gold Trust (TSX: GTU.UN, TSX: GTU.U, NYSE: GTU) where the latter is MANDATED by charter to keep the bulk of net assets in physical gold (and of course the best choice is simply buying physical bullion and storing OUTSIDE the USA). I say to anyone, if you have read the prospectus of SPDR Gold Trust, and you were not FRIGHTENED by the implied risks, then you’ve not understood what you’ve read.

As for being conservative as we now enter this next phase of the economic depression:

See the reference RP makes to “Bernard Baruch” implying that the ones who made money and kept it after the Great Depression, were those who understand they had to be EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE and very carefully diversified (or straight cash) during the second leg of the depression where things really got ugly and chaotic, which is analogous to the period we are today entering.

The implication is that these economic conditions are so EXTREME that entire categories of financial instruments will crash, or exhibit value fluctuations so wild that the chaos can easily wipe out a portfolio. Further, that some of it will be so random and unpredictable, that even smartest bets placed by the brightest can go bad, so careful and smart diversification is a must.

[peterb]

Prechter has had some correct calls, but his timing has been terrible on many of them. I’ve been watching him since the mid 1990s.
This statement by Prechter in this interview leaves me wondering about how well he has accessed the Fed and what it is truely capable of doing.

“Right now, it doesn’t have that ability, and the Fed is somewhat of an independent bank. I don’t think it really wants to own the worst debt on the face of the earth to back its notes. It generally tries to buy things that it believes will hold value. That behavior hasn’t changed. But it might later.”

[peterb]

Prechter has had some correct calls, but his timing has been terrible on many of them. I’ve been watching him since the mid 1990s.
This statement by Prechter in this interview leaves me wondering about how well he has accessed the Fed and what it is truely capable of doing.

“Right now, it doesn’t have that ability, and the Fed is somewhat of an independent bank. I don’t think it really wants to own the worst debt on the face of the earth to back its notes. It generally tries to buy things that it believes will hold value. That behavior hasn’t changed. But it might later.”

[peterb]

Prechter has had some correct calls, but his timing has been terrible on many of them. I’ve been watching him since the mid 1990s.
This statement by Prechter in this interview leaves me wondering about how well he has accessed the Fed and what it is truely capable of doing.

“Right now, it doesn’t have that ability, and the Fed is somewhat of an independent bank. I don’t think it really wants to own the worst debt on the face of the earth to back its notes. It generally tries to buy things that it believes will hold value. That behavior hasn’t changed. But it might later.”

[peterb]

Prechter has had some correct calls, but his timing has been terrible on many of them. I’ve been watching him since the mid 1990s.
This statement by Prechter in this interview leaves me wondering about how well he has accessed the Fed and what it is truely capable of doing.

“Right now, it doesn’t have that ability, and the Fed is somewhat of an independent bank. I don’t think it really wants to own the worst debt on the face of the earth to back its notes. It generally tries to buy things that it believes will hold value. That behavior hasn’t changed. But it might later.”

[peterb]

Prechter has had some correct calls, but his timing has been terrible on many of them. I’ve been watching him since the mid 1990s.
This statement by Prechter in this interview leaves me wondering about how well he has accessed the Fed and what it is truely capable of doing.

“Right now, it doesn’t have that ability, and the Fed is somewhat of an independent bank. I don’t think it really wants to own the worst debt on the face of the earth to back its notes. It generally tries to buy things that it believes will hold value. That behavior hasn’t changed. But it might later.”

[SD Realtor]

stocks very interesting article. I follow another former posters blog who feels the same way about gold (and etfs) that you do. He preaches futures rather then etfs due primarily to liquidity.

One question, is your statement regarding etfs, extending to the negative correlated ones. For instance SQQQ a HIGHLY leveraged and risky etf. Even if it is downside are you saying that in a flash decline the market can simply say tough luck the etf gets nothing. Is that because of the leverage?

[SD Realtor]

stocks very interesting article. I follow another former posters blog who feels the same way about gold (and etfs) that you do. He preaches futures rather then etfs due primarily to liquidity.

One question, is your statement regarding etfs, extending to the negative correlated ones. For instance SQQQ a HIGHLY leveraged and risky etf. Even if it is downside are you saying that in a flash decline the market can simply say tough luck the etf gets nothing. Is that because of the leverage?

[SD Realtor]

stocks very interesting article. I follow another former posters blog who feels the same way about gold (and etfs) that you do. He preaches futures rather then etfs due primarily to liquidity.

One question, is your statement regarding etfs, extending to the negative correlated ones. For instance SQQQ a HIGHLY leveraged and risky etf. Even if it is downside are you saying that in a flash decline the market can simply say tough luck the etf gets nothing. Is that because of the leverage?

[SD Realtor]

stocks very interesting article. I follow another former posters blog who feels the same way about gold (and etfs) that you do. He preaches futures rather then etfs due primarily to liquidity.

One question, is your statement regarding etfs, extending to the negative correlated ones. For instance SQQQ a HIGHLY leveraged and risky etf. Even if it is downside are you saying that in a flash decline the market can simply say tough luck the etf gets nothing. Is that because of the leverage?

[Author]

Posts