World’s biggest real estate binge

[Escoguy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-14/world-s-biggest-real-estate-binge-is-coming-to-a-city-near-you

I’ve touched on this topic some before (4,000 Chinese students at UCSD alone) and while it is not 100% that San Diego will get caught up in the frenzy, Chinese investor activity could provide support to offset any weakness going forward in the next few years.

Last night I drove a Chinese VC investor from Hong Kong to Balboa, she said her entire family was already here but she had resisted coming because of her job which pays very well.

In summary, it would only take a few plane loads of buyers to buy all of the inventory under 700K in San Diego county.

http://www.dailybulletin.com/social-affairs/20161120/census-1-in-5-of-new-arrivals-to-southern-california-came-from-another-nation

[XBoxBoy]

Would Trump’s upcoming immigration reform impact this?

[bearishgurl]

I agree with xboxboy. I think that under a Trump administration, the party will eventually be over for foreign students (from any country) taking coveted seats from our stateside public universities while American freshman applicants get to live in their parents’ back bedroom and duke it out with their local (underfunded) community college registrar for needed classes whilst attempting to get their associate degrees in two years (a nearly impossible feat in many CA CC’s).

Also, Esco has it wrong about UCSD. 4,000 likely represents the amount of FRESHMEN it admits from China every year. When you count ALL its students, including grad students, the number it has from China (foreign students, NOT Chinese American) is more like 15-16K. All these students (and more OOC/OOS students) are taking up seats from CA HS graduates who had an expectation during HS (and rightly so) to attend a public university in their own state which offers their desired program AFTER they did everything necessary to get admitted.

[all]

[quote=bearishgurl] All these students (and more OOC/OOS students) are taking up seats from CA HS graduates who had an expectation during HS (and rightly so) to attend a public university in their own state which offers their desired program AFTER they did everything necessary to get admitted.[/quote]
If they do not get admitted they obviously did not do everything necessary to get admitted. They did what they (and/or you) thought was necessary to get admitted.

[spdrun]

Those foreign/OOS students pay 2-3x the tuition of in-state students: they help pay in-state students’ tuitions.

[gzz]

In Point Loma and Ocean Beach zip codes there is a combined one listing for a SFH under $700,000 and a combined four listings between 700 and 800.

The pace of Chinese buying will only grow as about half of the entire worlds economic growth is in China.

[outtamojo]

Trump has said in the past “we have to keep our talented people.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-bannon-flattered-and-coaxed-trump-on-policies-key-to-the-alt-right/2016/11/15/53c66362-ab69-11e6-a31b-4b6397e625d0_story.html

[Coronita]

Lol.with the way the GOP are getting along with each other, I’d say there probably nothing that is going to get done over the next few years.

Good. The more government can’t agree on what to do, the better off I think most individuals are.

[Escoguy]

bg,

before you make a statement that someone is wrong, please do some basic research as hard data is not difficult to get:

http://studentresearch.ucsd.edu/_files/stats-data/enroll/ughome.pdf

18% are international and 5% are out of state

Please take this the right way but 23% isn’t so unreasonable given it was just 8% 10 years ago.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not really for or against foreign students. I’m just pointing out today’s reality and the impact on real estate. I have met a few of them and they enjoy being here and plan to stay if possible.

If they do stay, then the likelihood of a significant price drop is lower.

[Coronita]

That would be pretty ironic if, because of the hard stance of immigration, border cities that are more sensitive to demand from border crossing immigrants end up plunging in prices as demand falls off the cliff..While, at the same time, mortgage interest rates rises really fast, making people on ARM loans pay a heck of a lot more per month. Especially areas where real estate is not typically purchased by homeowners via cash.

I believe 30 year is now 4%, right?

I wouldn’t mind seeing more inventory personally.

[Coronita]

Speaking of jobs…Looks like while immigrants might not be as popular, robots and automation sure are gaining in popularity…

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/17/news/mcdonalds-steve-easterbrook/index.html

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/17/technology/trump-tech-populism-automation/index.html

Software,hardware, robotics, and mech e’s… You’re going to have a very very promising future as you figure out ways for companies to do more with less human labor.

If you have kids, start them young… Like First Lego League….My team of elementary kids did pretty well, even when they competed against middle school teams.

Oh….And high skilled immigrants have a choice on where they can work now.
Getting laid off at Cisco Systems? No problem… Give Huawei a call. And then we can watch more companies here fall further behind…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-18/china-s-happy-to-take-u-s-tech-immigrants-that-trump-blocks

Silicon Valley’s foreign contingent needn’t consider Canada. If President-elect Donald Trump makes good on campaign promises to bar foreign talent, China will welcome them with open arms.

Robin Li, the billionaire chief executive of China’s largest search engine Baidu Inc., may have voiced the sentiments of many of his compatriots on Friday. He hopes that some of the tens of thousands of highly-skilled, overseas-born workers now plying their trade in the Valley will instead consider a career in the world’s second largest economy.

“I read that an advisor to President-elect Donald Trump complained that three-quarters of engineers in Silicon Valley aren’t Americans,” Li told the World Internet Conference in the historic town of Wuzhen. “So I myself hope that many of these engineers will come to China to work for us.”

Li’s reckoning isn’t far off the mark: in the two Silicon Valley counties of Santa Clara and San Mateo — home to Intel Corp. and Nvidia Corp. — about two-thirds of people working in computing and mathematics fields are foreign-born, according to a study by research firm Joint Venture Silicon Valley using 2014 U.S. government data.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=spdrun]Those foreign/OOS students pay 2-3x the tuition of in-state students: they help pay in-state students’ tuitions.[/quote]

This.

Foreign students paying sticker price is the open secret of how college administrators balance the books at top universities that lack deep pocketed donors.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Escoguy]bg,

before you make a statement that someone is wrong, please do some basic research as hard data is not difficult to get:

http://studentresearch.ucsd.edu/_files/stats-data/enroll/ughome.pdf

18% are international and 5% are out of state

Please take this the right way but 23% isn’t so unreasonable given it was just 8% 10 years ago.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not really for or against foreign students. I’m just pointing out today’s reality and the impact on real estate. I have met a few of them and they enjoy being here and plan to stay if possible.

If they do stay, then the likelihood of a significant price drop is lower.[/quote]Esco, I can’t discern where your page of stats is coming from but assuming those figures are true, how is it that it “isn’t unreasonable” that out of state admissions have gone up at UCSD 198% from 2005 to 2015 and out of country admissions have gone up 684% while San Diego County resident admissions have gone down 5% in the same time frame? I don’t know how old your kids are but do you want them to slave away in HS to get all the requirements to be admitted to UCSD PLUS achieve an overall GPA of over 4.0 to be admitted to UCSD under today’s standards and then get turned down as freshmen applicants in favor of (often lesser-qualified) OOS and OOC applicants?

Do you have any idea how much (required) on-campus housing costs in CA for out-of-area freshmen at a CA public university? Try ~$1500 month each to share a 4-person, 1000 sf unit for nine months (incl utilities) and then your student will be forced to move out in one day (1-2 days before senior graduation). How about off-campus housing? In eastern Los Angeles County, it costs approx $1125 month for an older 1 bdrm apt in an established area (not incl utilities). $1700 month for a shared 2-bdrm apt in the same area (not incl utilities). ~$650 month each (incl utilities) to share a smallish 4 bdrm condo with 3 other students, where only two students can park in the garage and the others must park off the compound (in the street, and remember to move their vehicles on “street sweeping” days). If they get off work after midnight, they must often walk five minutes or more to their unit. And it costs up to $1000 month each (incl utilities and depending on bdrm size) to rent a 4-5 bdrm house with 3-4 other students. Double these rent amounts for similarly-situated units/houses near LA Westside public universities such as UCLA and CSULB or OC coastal campuses such as UCI or SF East Bay campuses such as CSUEB (Hayward). Double and a half these amounts for SF Peninsula public universities such as SFSU and SJSU. In all cases, a one-year lease is mandatory, regardless if your kid stays in the area for summer classes … or not. The vast majority of CA families can’t afford out-of-county housing for their student to attend university (unless they have relatives in the area of the campus willing to put them up for 2-4 years).

UCSD has actually been admitting more than TWICE as many students from LA County as they have been admitting from SD County! All the while many qualified SD County HS graduates who didn’t make it into UCSD or even SDSU are languishing for YEARS in CC and graduating with a “Associate Degrees of Transfer” whilst being again turned down as a Junior applicant to their home-county public universities and thus thrust out into the retail and hospitality work market with a virtually worthless degree (because it was designed for just ONE purpose … CA public university admission for which they can’t get admitted to without paying many thousands per year to live somewhere else).

The Regents and the CSU Board doesn’t owe these coddled OOS and OOC applicants a damn thing. Of course everyone wants to live in SD and wants to stay! But this isn’t the problem of the Native San Diegan HS graduate who can’t get into UCSD, SDSU or CSUSM because an OOS/OOC applicant who had lesser credentials took their seat!

Esco, don’t you think that qualified local students should have the first shot at admission to their CA home county universities so they can live at home for “free” and complete their bachelor’s degrees? I wouldn’t be surprised if the Regents are already facing lawsuits over their egregious admission practices favoring OOS/OOC applicants over in-state and home-county applicants. This is a travesty for both CA HS graduates and their parents because it is happening at ALL UC campuses statewide and the CA state auditor specifically criticized and questioned these practices to the Governor and Legislature in April of this year. I would be interested to see what the UC stats for OOS/OOC freshman admissions look like for Fall 2016.

see: http://piggington.com/dire_climate_ca_public_university_admissions_freshmen#comment-267384

If these OOS/OOC students from well-heeled families are dead set on attending college on the CA coast, they are welcome to apply to CA’s many private universities which don’t use our taxpayer funds which should be set aside for resident applicants (with taxpaying parents). We don’t owe them seats in our ~32 public universities as these campuses don’t even have enough room to accommodate all of the qualified IN-STATE freshman and junior applicants they get! And yes, ALL of CA’s public campuses have their own deep-pocketed donors … including their own respective (very successful) alumni!

[bearishgurl]

The link in the preceding post can be found on page 2 or page 6 of the thread, depending on how you can your Pigg site set up.

[ltsddd]

[quote=all][quote=bearishgurl] All these students (and more OOC/OOS students) are taking up seats from CA HS graduates who had an expectation during HS (and rightly so) to attend a public university in their own state which offers their desired program AFTER they did everything necessary to get admitted.[/quote]
If they do not get admitted they obviously did not do everything necessary to get admitted. They did what they (and/or you) thought was necessary to get admitted.[/quote]

Actually, an audit back in March had this finding:

“The report, issued by state Auditor Elaine Howle in March, won headlines primarily for its explosive finding that UC officials had denied enrollment to 4,300 qualified California students over 10 years while lowering admission standards for out-of-state applicants and sharply increasing their admissions — such students pay triple the tuition that in-state students pay. Those actions contradicted a core goal of the foundational California Master Plan for Higher Education: having UC be dedicated first and foremost to educating Californians.”

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/editorials/sd-uc-tuition-hike-no-way-20161117-story.html

[Author]

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