[quote=seer]Stay away from RE for 3 years.[/quote]
It is official, we are at or have passed the bottom in some markets. Maybe I had always thought it would be the cover of Time magazine, but these days, few people read Time, it is no longer the pulse of society.
This cash is coming out the mattresses for a reason, because as soon as popular opinion is consistent with that statement (which it is) then it’s time to go all in. In 2006, when popular opinion was that r/e always goes up, the translation is=look out below.
BTW seer, I’m somewhat familiar with those condos, I took a look at them as an investment once they started to break below 100k. If I’m not mistaken (which I might be on the complex name but it was on or near madison, an ongoing lawsuit against the builder for something is blocking any financing), it’s cash only, they started to break 100k and they could not participate in the 8k tax deal, because very few 1st time buyers who make less than 75k have that kind of cash on hand. You are applying logic just like r/e always goes up to your theory. It’s peak was 299k, then it fell to 150k, then it fell to 79k. Logic says that it will fall to 35k next year and 17k the year after (while renting for 1k). That same logic was used by bubblers, who saw it go from 150k to 300k so it must go to 600k. Just because a particular investment is a bad idea at one price doesn’t always make it a bad idea at another price, the reverse is also very true. A 70x rent multipler is a good investment, regardless of what the trend has been, those lines on graphs tend to turn onve fundamental values are overshot, and a newer 1k/mo rental is overshot at 79k, three years isn’t going to help, it will hurt. In fact they are probably already gone. The 100k places I was targeting that rented for 1200 and the 135k places that rented for 1500 that I was attempting to buy are all gone, all sold, prives have bumped up 10%. I don’t need 3 years, I need a time machine to get me back to six months ago.
But I don’t really want to talk you out of your position because I need you to think like you do and to share your opinions with others. Contrarians beat the market by moving in the opposite direction, without the herd, there is no prey.
