Why I am leaving San Diego

[paramount]

There is a certain brutality unique to life in Southern California.

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=jpinpb][quote=CA renter]We have seen an unprecedented CREDIT bubble, the size and scope of which we haven’t seen in our lifetimes (if ever). The main beneficiary of all of that credit has been the housing market. The ONLY reason prices are levitating above their fundamental values is because the govt and Federal Reserve have stepped in on so many levels to keep “supply and demand” from setting prices.
[/quote]
Totally agree. I’m scared this may be the new norm. I fear if the government steps back, things will go down. I think they know this. So they can’t. They will continue to prop things up. I just don’t know how long they can. I mean, sooner or later they may run out of bullets. But I agree that were it not for gov intervention, we would be looking at a completely different market and probably be on our way to a real recovery by now. Dragging out the bottom means dragging out a real recovery, IMO. But I guess they decided to rip the bandaid off real slow.[/quote]

Ladies, I understand your frustration with the local market being artificially “propped up.” I believe this is true for MOST of the county. But there are niche markets in this county which have a high incidence of cash buyers, many foreign. Whether they are purchasing a principal residence, a residence for relatives or a vacation residence isn’t important here. Yes, these buyers DO look at recent sold comps before making an offer but there is ONLY ONE DM property available which has its own rock sauna, for example, that they are considering placing an offer on. When buyers with $$ see a certain design or amenities they are looking for in a VERY SPECIFIC locale, they often buy it! Government intervention has no effect on this type of buyer, especially foreign buyers who typically cannot avail themselves of US mortgage loans.

The value of RE in certain CA coastal locales will always be exempt from “fundamentals” simply by virtue of their highly-desireable locations which usually cannot be replicated within the same county. As a consequence, even “fixers” might be cost-prohibitive, as well, when located in that same immediate locale. Brian is right . . . may the best buyer win. It has nothing to do with what a hardworking American deserves and everything to do with the Darwinian method at work . . . in its finest form :=}[/quote]

But those “foreign buyers” absolutely are affected by our govt and Fed’s actions. They can outbid American buyers because the govt/Fed have decided to destroy the dollar.

Also, realize that many of the domestic “all cash” purchases are being made because people with cash are very, very fearful of inflation…AND they have nowhere to put their money where they can earn any kind of yield because of all the Fed/govt intervention. This intervention feeds through the entire system; it’s not just about one specific housing program, etc., they are feeding the bubble (AGAIN!) from every single direction — interest rates, foreclosure moratoriums (including the “new” robo-signing nonsense), tax credits, “toxic asset purchases,” bloated Fed balance sheet, Treasury and mortgage purchases, etc. The amount of intervention is totally unprecedented. How anyone can think this is a “normal” or “healthy” situation is beyond me.

Without all the intervention, the dollar would have gained strength very rapidly over the past few years. After all, it was a ***shortage of dollars*** that caused the downturn. We are having our currency destroyed by the printing/creation of trillions of dollars over the past couple of years with the specific goal of propping up asset prices at the expense of the dollar (savers/dollar holders’ purchasing power). That has absolutely affected our purchasing power — including our ability to purchase houses that foreigners can more easily afford with a stronger currency.

One absolutely cannot underestimate the power of currency wars. IMHO, it’s one of the most powerful financial forces in the world.

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=jpinpb][quote=CA renter]We have seen an unprecedented CREDIT bubble, the size and scope of which we haven’t seen in our lifetimes (if ever). The main beneficiary of all of that credit has been the housing market. The ONLY reason prices are levitating above their fundamental values is because the govt and Federal Reserve have stepped in on so many levels to keep “supply and demand” from setting prices.
[/quote]
Totally agree. I’m scared this may be the new norm. I fear if the government steps back, things will go down. I think they know this. So they can’t. They will continue to prop things up. I just don’t know how long they can. I mean, sooner or later they may run out of bullets. But I agree that were it not for gov intervention, we would be looking at a completely different market and probably be on our way to a real recovery by now. Dragging out the bottom means dragging out a real recovery, IMO. But I guess they decided to rip the bandaid off real slow.[/quote]

Ladies, I understand your frustration with the local market being artificially “propped up.” I believe this is true for MOST of the county. But there are niche markets in this county which have a high incidence of cash buyers, many foreign. Whether they are purchasing a principal residence, a residence for relatives or a vacation residence isn’t important here. Yes, these buyers DO look at recent sold comps before making an offer but there is ONLY ONE DM property available which has its own rock sauna, for example, that they are considering placing an offer on. When buyers with $$ see a certain design or amenities they are looking for in a VERY SPECIFIC locale, they often buy it! Government intervention has no effect on this type of buyer, especially foreign buyers who typically cannot avail themselves of US mortgage loans.

The value of RE in certain CA coastal locales will always be exempt from “fundamentals” simply by virtue of their highly-desireable locations which usually cannot be replicated within the same county. As a consequence, even “fixers” might be cost-prohibitive, as well, when located in that same immediate locale. Brian is right . . . may the best buyer win. It has nothing to do with what a hardworking American deserves and everything to do with the Darwinian method at work . . . in its finest form :=}[/quote]

But those “foreign buyers” absolutely are affected by our govt and Fed’s actions. They can outbid American buyers because the govt/Fed have decided to destroy the dollar.

Also, realize that many of the domestic “all cash” purchases are being made because people with cash are very, very fearful of inflation…AND they have nowhere to put their money where they can earn any kind of yield because of all the Fed/govt intervention. This intervention feeds through the entire system; it’s not just about one specific housing program, etc., they are feeding the bubble (AGAIN!) from every single direction — interest rates, foreclosure moratoriums (including the “new” robo-signing nonsense), tax credits, “toxic asset purchases,” bloated Fed balance sheet, Treasury and mortgage purchases, etc. The amount of intervention is totally unprecedented. How anyone can think this is a “normal” or “healthy” situation is beyond me.

Without all the intervention, the dollar would have gained strength very rapidly over the past few years. After all, it was a ***shortage of dollars*** that caused the downturn. We are having our currency destroyed by the printing/creation of trillions of dollars over the past couple of years with the specific goal of propping up asset prices at the expense of the dollar (savers/dollar holders’ purchasing power). That has absolutely affected our purchasing power — including our ability to purchase houses that foreigners can more easily afford with a stronger currency.

One absolutely cannot underestimate the power of currency wars. IMHO, it’s one of the most powerful financial forces in the world.

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=jpinpb][quote=CA renter]We have seen an unprecedented CREDIT bubble, the size and scope of which we haven’t seen in our lifetimes (if ever). The main beneficiary of all of that credit has been the housing market. The ONLY reason prices are levitating above their fundamental values is because the govt and Federal Reserve have stepped in on so many levels to keep “supply and demand” from setting prices.
[/quote]
Totally agree. I’m scared this may be the new norm. I fear if the government steps back, things will go down. I think they know this. So they can’t. They will continue to prop things up. I just don’t know how long they can. I mean, sooner or later they may run out of bullets. But I agree that were it not for gov intervention, we would be looking at a completely different market and probably be on our way to a real recovery by now. Dragging out the bottom means dragging out a real recovery, IMO. But I guess they decided to rip the bandaid off real slow.[/quote]

Ladies, I understand your frustration with the local market being artificially “propped up.” I believe this is true for MOST of the county. But there are niche markets in this county which have a high incidence of cash buyers, many foreign. Whether they are purchasing a principal residence, a residence for relatives or a vacation residence isn’t important here. Yes, these buyers DO look at recent sold comps before making an offer but there is ONLY ONE DM property available which has its own rock sauna, for example, that they are considering placing an offer on. When buyers with $$ see a certain design or amenities they are looking for in a VERY SPECIFIC locale, they often buy it! Government intervention has no effect on this type of buyer, especially foreign buyers who typically cannot avail themselves of US mortgage loans.

The value of RE in certain CA coastal locales will always be exempt from “fundamentals” simply by virtue of their highly-desireable locations which usually cannot be replicated within the same county. As a consequence, even “fixers” might be cost-prohibitive, as well, when located in that same immediate locale. Brian is right . . . may the best buyer win. It has nothing to do with what a hardworking American deserves and everything to do with the Darwinian method at work . . . in its finest form :=}[/quote]

But those “foreign buyers” absolutely are affected by our govt and Fed’s actions. They can outbid American buyers because the govt/Fed have decided to destroy the dollar.

Also, realize that many of the domestic “all cash” purchases are being made because people with cash are very, very fearful of inflation…AND they have nowhere to put their money where they can earn any kind of yield because of all the Fed/govt intervention. This intervention feeds through the entire system; it’s not just about one specific housing program, etc., they are feeding the bubble (AGAIN!) from every single direction — interest rates, foreclosure moratoriums (including the “new” robo-signing nonsense), tax credits, “toxic asset purchases,” bloated Fed balance sheet, Treasury and mortgage purchases, etc. The amount of intervention is totally unprecedented. How anyone can think this is a “normal” or “healthy” situation is beyond me.

Without all the intervention, the dollar would have gained strength very rapidly over the past few years. After all, it was a ***shortage of dollars*** that caused the downturn. We are having our currency destroyed by the printing/creation of trillions of dollars over the past couple of years with the specific goal of propping up asset prices at the expense of the dollar (savers/dollar holders’ purchasing power). That has absolutely affected our purchasing power — including our ability to purchase houses that foreigners can more easily afford with a stronger currency.

One absolutely cannot underestimate the power of currency wars. IMHO, it’s one of the most powerful financial forces in the world.

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=jpinpb][quote=CA renter]We have seen an unprecedented CREDIT bubble, the size and scope of which we haven’t seen in our lifetimes (if ever). The main beneficiary of all of that credit has been the housing market. The ONLY reason prices are levitating above their fundamental values is because the govt and Federal Reserve have stepped in on so many levels to keep “supply and demand” from setting prices.
[/quote]
Totally agree. I’m scared this may be the new norm. I fear if the government steps back, things will go down. I think they know this. So they can’t. They will continue to prop things up. I just don’t know how long they can. I mean, sooner or later they may run out of bullets. But I agree that were it not for gov intervention, we would be looking at a completely different market and probably be on our way to a real recovery by now. Dragging out the bottom means dragging out a real recovery, IMO. But I guess they decided to rip the bandaid off real slow.[/quote]

Ladies, I understand your frustration with the local market being artificially “propped up.” I believe this is true for MOST of the county. But there are niche markets in this county which have a high incidence of cash buyers, many foreign. Whether they are purchasing a principal residence, a residence for relatives or a vacation residence isn’t important here. Yes, these buyers DO look at recent sold comps before making an offer but there is ONLY ONE DM property available which has its own rock sauna, for example, that they are considering placing an offer on. When buyers with $$ see a certain design or amenities they are looking for in a VERY SPECIFIC locale, they often buy it! Government intervention has no effect on this type of buyer, especially foreign buyers who typically cannot avail themselves of US mortgage loans.

The value of RE in certain CA coastal locales will always be exempt from “fundamentals” simply by virtue of their highly-desireable locations which usually cannot be replicated within the same county. As a consequence, even “fixers” might be cost-prohibitive, as well, when located in that same immediate locale. Brian is right . . . may the best buyer win. It has nothing to do with what a hardworking American deserves and everything to do with the Darwinian method at work . . . in its finest form :=}[/quote]

But those “foreign buyers” absolutely are affected by our govt and Fed’s actions. They can outbid American buyers because the govt/Fed have decided to destroy the dollar.

Also, realize that many of the domestic “all cash” purchases are being made because people with cash are very, very fearful of inflation…AND they have nowhere to put their money where they can earn any kind of yield because of all the Fed/govt intervention. This intervention feeds through the entire system; it’s not just about one specific housing program, etc., they are feeding the bubble (AGAIN!) from every single direction — interest rates, foreclosure moratoriums (including the “new” robo-signing nonsense), tax credits, “toxic asset purchases,” bloated Fed balance sheet, Treasury and mortgage purchases, etc. The amount of intervention is totally unprecedented. How anyone can think this is a “normal” or “healthy” situation is beyond me.

Without all the intervention, the dollar would have gained strength very rapidly over the past few years. After all, it was a ***shortage of dollars*** that caused the downturn. We are having our currency destroyed by the printing/creation of trillions of dollars over the past couple of years with the specific goal of propping up asset prices at the expense of the dollar (savers/dollar holders’ purchasing power). That has absolutely affected our purchasing power — including our ability to purchase houses that foreigners can more easily afford with a stronger currency.

One absolutely cannot underestimate the power of currency wars. IMHO, it’s one of the most powerful financial forces in the world.

[CA renter]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=jpinpb][quote=CA renter]We have seen an unprecedented CREDIT bubble, the size and scope of which we haven’t seen in our lifetimes (if ever). The main beneficiary of all of that credit has been the housing market. The ONLY reason prices are levitating above their fundamental values is because the govt and Federal Reserve have stepped in on so many levels to keep “supply and demand” from setting prices.
[/quote]
Totally agree. I’m scared this may be the new norm. I fear if the government steps back, things will go down. I think they know this. So they can’t. They will continue to prop things up. I just don’t know how long they can. I mean, sooner or later they may run out of bullets. But I agree that were it not for gov intervention, we would be looking at a completely different market and probably be on our way to a real recovery by now. Dragging out the bottom means dragging out a real recovery, IMO. But I guess they decided to rip the bandaid off real slow.[/quote]

Ladies, I understand your frustration with the local market being artificially “propped up.” I believe this is true for MOST of the county. But there are niche markets in this county which have a high incidence of cash buyers, many foreign. Whether they are purchasing a principal residence, a residence for relatives or a vacation residence isn’t important here. Yes, these buyers DO look at recent sold comps before making an offer but there is ONLY ONE DM property available which has its own rock sauna, for example, that they are considering placing an offer on. When buyers with $$ see a certain design or amenities they are looking for in a VERY SPECIFIC locale, they often buy it! Government intervention has no effect on this type of buyer, especially foreign buyers who typically cannot avail themselves of US mortgage loans.

The value of RE in certain CA coastal locales will always be exempt from “fundamentals” simply by virtue of their highly-desireable locations which usually cannot be replicated within the same county. As a consequence, even “fixers” might be cost-prohibitive, as well, when located in that same immediate locale. Brian is right . . . may the best buyer win. It has nothing to do with what a hardworking American deserves and everything to do with the Darwinian method at work . . . in its finest form :=}[/quote]

But those “foreign buyers” absolutely are affected by our govt and Fed’s actions. They can outbid American buyers because the govt/Fed have decided to destroy the dollar.

Also, realize that many of the domestic “all cash” purchases are being made because people with cash are very, very fearful of inflation…AND they have nowhere to put their money where they can earn any kind of yield because of all the Fed/govt intervention. This intervention feeds through the entire system; it’s not just about one specific housing program, etc., they are feeding the bubble (AGAIN!) from every single direction — interest rates, foreclosure moratoriums (including the “new” robo-signing nonsense), tax credits, “toxic asset purchases,” bloated Fed balance sheet, Treasury and mortgage purchases, etc. The amount of intervention is totally unprecedented. How anyone can think this is a “normal” or “healthy” situation is beyond me.

Without all the intervention, the dollar would have gained strength very rapidly over the past few years. After all, it was a ***shortage of dollars*** that caused the downturn. We are having our currency destroyed by the printing/creation of trillions of dollars over the past couple of years with the specific goal of propping up asset prices at the expense of the dollar (savers/dollar holders’ purchasing power). That has absolutely affected our purchasing power — including our ability to purchase houses that foreigners can more easily afford with a stronger currency.

One absolutely cannot underestimate the power of currency wars. IMHO, it’s one of the most powerful financial forces in the world.

[CA renter]

[quote=jstoesz]I am not convinced you will get the same point. Ripping the band aid off quick bankrupts certain companies that are cash poor, while ripping it off real slow bankrupts companies that are unfavored by government policies. In either case we may return to the same GDP level, but more than likely one route will result in a higher GDP.

I and most of you all are of the position that even if it hurts like hell, it is better to rip it off quick. That allows the healthy unleveraged companies to survive on their cash short term and come out with a thinned heard of competition. Long term we will have a healthier more robust economy.
Our current path has resulted in many healthy companies sinking because the recession has lasted so long. We are left with more zombie companies that are subsisting on government cheese. Instead of coming out of the downturn storger, we will be a shadow of our old self.[/quote]

BINGO!!!!!

Dragging this out only means that they are taking the healthy entities/people down with the weak ones. What they are doing is going to cause MORE pain in the long run, and they will run up our deficits to levels that are entirely unsustainable in the process (already done, really).

It is the DURATION of the downturn that will cause the most pain, not the depth.

[CA renter]

[quote=jstoesz]I am not convinced you will get the same point. Ripping the band aid off quick bankrupts certain companies that are cash poor, while ripping it off real slow bankrupts companies that are unfavored by government policies. In either case we may return to the same GDP level, but more than likely one route will result in a higher GDP.

I and most of you all are of the position that even if it hurts like hell, it is better to rip it off quick. That allows the healthy unleveraged companies to survive on their cash short term and come out with a thinned heard of competition. Long term we will have a healthier more robust economy.
Our current path has resulted in many healthy companies sinking because the recession has lasted so long. We are left with more zombie companies that are subsisting on government cheese. Instead of coming out of the downturn storger, we will be a shadow of our old self.[/quote]

BINGO!!!!!

Dragging this out only means that they are taking the healthy entities/people down with the weak ones. What they are doing is going to cause MORE pain in the long run, and they will run up our deficits to levels that are entirely unsustainable in the process (already done, really).

It is the DURATION of the downturn that will cause the most pain, not the depth.

[CA renter]

[quote=jstoesz]I am not convinced you will get the same point. Ripping the band aid off quick bankrupts certain companies that are cash poor, while ripping it off real slow bankrupts companies that are unfavored by government policies. In either case we may return to the same GDP level, but more than likely one route will result in a higher GDP.

I and most of you all are of the position that even if it hurts like hell, it is better to rip it off quick. That allows the healthy unleveraged companies to survive on their cash short term and come out with a thinned heard of competition. Long term we will have a healthier more robust economy.
Our current path has resulted in many healthy companies sinking because the recession has lasted so long. We are left with more zombie companies that are subsisting on government cheese. Instead of coming out of the downturn storger, we will be a shadow of our old self.[/quote]

BINGO!!!!!

Dragging this out only means that they are taking the healthy entities/people down with the weak ones. What they are doing is going to cause MORE pain in the long run, and they will run up our deficits to levels that are entirely unsustainable in the process (already done, really).

It is the DURATION of the downturn that will cause the most pain, not the depth.

[CA renter]

[quote=jstoesz]I am not convinced you will get the same point. Ripping the band aid off quick bankrupts certain companies that are cash poor, while ripping it off real slow bankrupts companies that are unfavored by government policies. In either case we may return to the same GDP level, but more than likely one route will result in a higher GDP.

I and most of you all are of the position that even if it hurts like hell, it is better to rip it off quick. That allows the healthy unleveraged companies to survive on their cash short term and come out with a thinned heard of competition. Long term we will have a healthier more robust economy.
Our current path has resulted in many healthy companies sinking because the recession has lasted so long. We are left with more zombie companies that are subsisting on government cheese. Instead of coming out of the downturn storger, we will be a shadow of our old self.[/quote]

BINGO!!!!!

Dragging this out only means that they are taking the healthy entities/people down with the weak ones. What they are doing is going to cause MORE pain in the long run, and they will run up our deficits to levels that are entirely unsustainable in the process (already done, really).

It is the DURATION of the downturn that will cause the most pain, not the depth.

[CA renter]

[quote=jstoesz]I am not convinced you will get the same point. Ripping the band aid off quick bankrupts certain companies that are cash poor, while ripping it off real slow bankrupts companies that are unfavored by government policies. In either case we may return to the same GDP level, but more than likely one route will result in a higher GDP.

I and most of you all are of the position that even if it hurts like hell, it is better to rip it off quick. That allows the healthy unleveraged companies to survive on their cash short term and come out with a thinned heard of competition. Long term we will have a healthier more robust economy.
Our current path has resulted in many healthy companies sinking because the recession has lasted so long. We are left with more zombie companies that are subsisting on government cheese. Instead of coming out of the downturn storger, we will be a shadow of our old self.[/quote]

BINGO!!!!!

Dragging this out only means that they are taking the healthy entities/people down with the weak ones. What they are doing is going to cause MORE pain in the long run, and they will run up our deficits to levels that are entirely unsustainable in the process (already done, really).

It is the DURATION of the downturn that will cause the most pain, not the depth.

[CA renter]

Also, just want to clarify…I don’t think jp or I are looking for that “special” Del Mar house that everyone else wants to buy.

There is this weird misconception on housing blogs that those of us who complain about the intervention or high prices are simply “whiners” who are looking for million-dollar properties to drop to $200K. That’s not the case with any of the bubble-sitters I’m aware of. We’re looking for very ordinary homes — no McMansions and no granite, please! — and just want prices to go to levels that are aligned with historical norms and price/rent ratios. We want prices to go where they would go without all the unprecedented intervention. That is NOT feeling “entitled” by any stretch of the imagination.

[CA renter]

Also, just want to clarify…I don’t think jp or I are looking for that “special” Del Mar house that everyone else wants to buy.

There is this weird misconception on housing blogs that those of us who complain about the intervention or high prices are simply “whiners” who are looking for million-dollar properties to drop to $200K. That’s not the case with any of the bubble-sitters I’m aware of. We’re looking for very ordinary homes — no McMansions and no granite, please! — and just want prices to go to levels that are aligned with historical norms and price/rent ratios. We want prices to go where they would go without all the unprecedented intervention. That is NOT feeling “entitled” by any stretch of the imagination.

[CA renter]

Also, just want to clarify…I don’t think jp or I are looking for that “special” Del Mar house that everyone else wants to buy.

There is this weird misconception on housing blogs that those of us who complain about the intervention or high prices are simply “whiners” who are looking for million-dollar properties to drop to $200K. That’s not the case with any of the bubble-sitters I’m aware of. We’re looking for very ordinary homes — no McMansions and no granite, please! — and just want prices to go to levels that are aligned with historical norms and price/rent ratios. We want prices to go where they would go without all the unprecedented intervention. That is NOT feeling “entitled” by any stretch of the imagination.

[CA renter]

Also, just want to clarify…I don’t think jp or I are looking for that “special” Del Mar house that everyone else wants to buy.

There is this weird misconception on housing blogs that those of us who complain about the intervention or high prices are simply “whiners” who are looking for million-dollar properties to drop to $200K. That’s not the case with any of the bubble-sitters I’m aware of. We’re looking for very ordinary homes — no McMansions and no granite, please! — and just want prices to go to levels that are aligned with historical norms and price/rent ratios. We want prices to go where they would go without all the unprecedented intervention. That is NOT feeling “entitled” by any stretch of the imagination.

[Author]

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