Where rents are headed?

[cv2]

My opinion is that rents will be soft along with the economy, but will track inflation.

Hmm, as we all experienced now, inflation is rampant. Do you mean that actually rents will go up?

BTW, I really do not care about the core inflation posted by the government.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Recent population demographics for San Diego.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20080320-9999-1n20census.html

Net domestic outmigration has declined significantly in 2006-2007 compared to 2003-2006.

Note that that in the past 4 years, while we had net outmigration of about 115,000 people, the net population continued to increase due to births and foreign migration.

I would think that this would result in increased demand for affordable rentals. Low- to mid-range rental rates are not likely to recede under these demographic conditions.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Recent population demographics for San Diego.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20080320-9999-1n20census.html

Net domestic outmigration has declined significantly in 2006-2007 compared to 2003-2006.

Note that that in the past 4 years, while we had net outmigration of about 115,000 people, the net population continued to increase due to births and foreign migration.

I would think that this would result in increased demand for affordable rentals. Low- to mid-range rental rates are not likely to recede under these demographic conditions.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Recent population demographics for San Diego.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20080320-9999-1n20census.html

Net domestic outmigration has declined significantly in 2006-2007 compared to 2003-2006.

Note that that in the past 4 years, while we had net outmigration of about 115,000 people, the net population continued to increase due to births and foreign migration.

I would think that this would result in increased demand for affordable rentals. Low- to mid-range rental rates are not likely to recede under these demographic conditions.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Recent population demographics for San Diego.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20080320-9999-1n20census.html

Net domestic outmigration has declined significantly in 2006-2007 compared to 2003-2006.

Note that that in the past 4 years, while we had net outmigration of about 115,000 people, the net population continued to increase due to births and foreign migration.

I would think that this would result in increased demand for affordable rentals. Low- to mid-range rental rates are not likely to recede under these demographic conditions.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Recent population demographics for San Diego.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20080320-9999-1n20census.html

Net domestic outmigration has declined significantly in 2006-2007 compared to 2003-2006.

Note that that in the past 4 years, while we had net outmigration of about 115,000 people, the net population continued to increase due to births and foreign migration.

I would think that this would result in increased demand for affordable rentals. Low- to mid-range rental rates are not likely to recede under these demographic conditions.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Hmm, as we all experienced now, inflation is rampant. Do you mean that actually rents will go up?

BTW, I really do not care about the core inflation posted by the government.

I agree with you. Government has understated inflation.

That’s why I tend to take inflation-adjusted charts with a grain of salt (My favorite is the inflation adjusted Case-Shiller chart of home prices since 18xx).
Better to compare with actual measures of what people pay to rent a roof over their heads.

You showed that rents increased at a rate of 6% since 1996. This indicates to me that perhaps a truer measure of inflation in San Diego would be closer to 6% annually over that period than whatever the Government reported.
since 1996.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Hmm, as we all experienced now, inflation is rampant. Do you mean that actually rents will go up?

BTW, I really do not care about the core inflation posted by the government.

I agree with you. Government has understated inflation.

That’s why I tend to take inflation-adjusted charts with a grain of salt (My favorite is the inflation adjusted Case-Shiller chart of home prices since 18xx).
Better to compare with actual measures of what people pay to rent a roof over their heads.

You showed that rents increased at a rate of 6% since 1996. This indicates to me that perhaps a truer measure of inflation in San Diego would be closer to 6% annually over that period than whatever the Government reported.
since 1996.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Hmm, as we all experienced now, inflation is rampant. Do you mean that actually rents will go up?

BTW, I really do not care about the core inflation posted by the government.

I agree with you. Government has understated inflation.

That’s why I tend to take inflation-adjusted charts with a grain of salt (My favorite is the inflation adjusted Case-Shiller chart of home prices since 18xx).
Better to compare with actual measures of what people pay to rent a roof over their heads.

You showed that rents increased at a rate of 6% since 1996. This indicates to me that perhaps a truer measure of inflation in San Diego would be closer to 6% annually over that period than whatever the Government reported.
since 1996.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Hmm, as we all experienced now, inflation is rampant. Do you mean that actually rents will go up?

BTW, I really do not care about the core inflation posted by the government.

I agree with you. Government has understated inflation.

That’s why I tend to take inflation-adjusted charts with a grain of salt (My favorite is the inflation adjusted Case-Shiller chart of home prices since 18xx).
Better to compare with actual measures of what people pay to rent a roof over their heads.

You showed that rents increased at a rate of 6% since 1996. This indicates to me that perhaps a truer measure of inflation in San Diego would be closer to 6% annually over that period than whatever the Government reported.
since 1996.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Hmm, as we all experienced now, inflation is rampant. Do you mean that actually rents will go up?

BTW, I really do not care about the core inflation posted by the government.

I agree with you. Government has understated inflation.

That’s why I tend to take inflation-adjusted charts with a grain of salt (My favorite is the inflation adjusted Case-Shiller chart of home prices since 18xx).
Better to compare with actual measures of what people pay to rent a roof over their heads.

You showed that rents increased at a rate of 6% since 1996. This indicates to me that perhaps a truer measure of inflation in San Diego would be closer to 6% annually over that period than whatever the Government reported.
since 1996.

[DWCAP]

While I agree with what FSD has said, we need to be alittle carefull in equating populations. Population demographics are not the same between those moving in and those moving out. Immigrants tend to live more to a house/apt than Americans, so demand is not necessary rising just because population is. Number of households may be a better indicator of overall housing demand than total population. I dont know where to get total number of households, I am sure it is in the gov data, but I dont care to spend much time looking.

[DWCAP]

While I agree with what FSD has said, we need to be alittle carefull in equating populations. Population demographics are not the same between those moving in and those moving out. Immigrants tend to live more to a house/apt than Americans, so demand is not necessary rising just because population is. Number of households may be a better indicator of overall housing demand than total population. I dont know where to get total number of households, I am sure it is in the gov data, but I dont care to spend much time looking.

[DWCAP]

While I agree with what FSD has said, we need to be alittle carefull in equating populations. Population demographics are not the same between those moving in and those moving out. Immigrants tend to live more to a house/apt than Americans, so demand is not necessary rising just because population is. Number of households may be a better indicator of overall housing demand than total population. I dont know where to get total number of households, I am sure it is in the gov data, but I dont care to spend much time looking.

[DWCAP]

While I agree with what FSD has said, we need to be alittle carefull in equating populations. Population demographics are not the same between those moving in and those moving out. Immigrants tend to live more to a house/apt than Americans, so demand is not necessary rising just because population is. Number of households may be a better indicator of overall housing demand than total population. I dont know where to get total number of households, I am sure it is in the gov data, but I dont care to spend much time looking.

[Author]

Posts