When does the current Bull Run end?

[paramount]

Schiff: U. S. Stock Market Correction one thing Not Made In China!

[Reality]

[quote=flyer]

“A lot of people know this is way overdone.”

[/quote]

Overdue is more like it.

[svelte]

I think the stock market will go up and down with an overall upward trend of 10% per year.

ha ha

ha

[paramount]

Excellent Commentary on todays market by Peter Schiff:

[ltsddd]

Major Asian indexes are all down big. China’s leading the way down 7.5%. It’s getting ugly. Let’s see how the US markets going to react.

[spdrun]

.

[utcsox]

[quote=ltsdd]Major Asian indexes are all down big. China’s leading the way down 7.5%. It’s getting ugly. Let’s see how the US markets going to react.[/quote]

S&P futures are down 47 and DOW futures are down 416 (fair value) according to Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures

[paramount]

I’d bet by January we’re in recession.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=paramount]I’d bet by January we’re in recession.[/quote]

Certainly not a declared recession. A recession requires 2 quarters of negative growth.

I’m thinking that a lot of money from emerging markets will seek safety in the USA. In the short term, it’s good for us. If anything, that will hold down mortgage rates and be good for real estate values.

[FlyerInHi]

Maybe it’s time for the US to act like China and take advantage of this opportunity. There is a global glut of steel and construction materials.

We should embark on a grand building spree like we did during the industrial age — new airports, deepwater ports, train stations, high speed rail. 21 century versions of Hoover Dam, Grand Central Station, Golden Gate Bridge, etc…

That would absorb the capacity overhang. We can welcome refugees from around the world to provide the labor. Make America great again!

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=paramount]I’d bet by January we’re in recession.[/quote]

Certainly not a declared recession. A recession requires 2 quarters of negative growth.

I’m thinking that a lot of money from emerging markets will seek safety in the USA. In the short term, it’s good for us. If anything, that will hold down mortgage rates and be good for real estate values.[/quote]

I’m definitely worried about our exports and trade gap in the medium term.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Maybe it’s time for the US to act like China and take advantage of this opportunity. There is a global glut of steel and construction materials.

We should embark on a grand building spree like we did during the industrial age — new airports, deepwater ports, train stations, high speed rail. 21 century versions of Hoover Dam, Grand Central Station, Golden Gate Bridge, etc…

That would absorb the capacity overhang. We can welcome refugees from around the world to provide the labor. Make America great again![/quote]

Considering how hard it was to get the Stimulus package approved when Domestic labor was ridiculously cheap and abundant, I wouldn’t hold my breath on this. Half the country believes the secret to beating a recession is cutting taxes (and also in cutting taxes during a boom). A lot of smart people were arguing for long term infrastructure investment during the crash while labor was at historically low prices, but only a fraction of what probably should have been done was actually executed thanks to austerity.

We probaly won’t see serious infrastructure investment until the next time the branches of government are switched.

[paramount]

According to a forbes analysis, we are not entering a bear market.

Forbes:

My current analysis indicates that it is too early to conclude that we have entered a new bear market. The economy continues to look positive and there are signs that the consumer’s positive outlook will trigger good spending in the months ahead. By the end of the year we need to see better data on manufacturing which is needed to keep the economy in a positive trend.

The stock market will need at least 2-3 weeks of rallies and declines before it could bottom out.

[NotCranky]

WRT to an imminent recession, does it make sense to look at this stuff on Freight? Never hear that talked about on pIggs, but it’s still something that old guys watch.

I don’t know much about this stuff, but I asked an old , very old friend earlier in the year and he said freight was down and that is if doesn’t come back up , we will probably get a recession. I think China has been trending down over that last year or so too.

[paramount]

[quote=Blogstar]WRT to an imminent recession, does it make sense to look at this stuff on Freight? Never hear that talked about on pIggs, but it’s still something that old guys watch.

I don’t know much about this stuff, but I asked an old , very old friend earlier in the year and he said freight was down and that is if doesn’t come back up , we will probably get a recession. I think China has been trending down over that last year or so too.[/quote]

I think this may relate to part of the Dow Theory:

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/25/a-dow-theory-sell-sign-has-the-market-nervous.html

[Author]

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