Whatever happened to rising interest rates?

[EconProf]

A little over one year ago interest rates were a little over 3% (10-year bond), and the consensus forecast was for them to increase throughout 2014. The average end-of-2014 rate was predicted to be 3.57%. Instead, they fell steadily and today stand at 1.73%.
I predict interest rates will continue to fall for many months, and that some really neat trends will happen as a result:
1. Real estate values–of all categories–will get propped up.
2. Investment real estate cap rates will continue to fall, thus boosting values.
3. A surge of refinancing will occur as homeowners do the math in comparing their existing rates with a newly possible mortgage. Add in their house appreciation and it looks doubly attractive.
4. HELOCs will return, thus boosting consumer spending and the economy.

[The-Shoveler]

I found it interesting that Lennar and KB both came out and said they were being squeezed by higher land and labor costs (basically saying they cannot afford to lower prices and may need to raise them).
This happening at a time when a lot the millennials will finally be looking to strike out on their own.
Commodities I think are being hit because of multiple reasons (unusually good crop yields and lower energy costs as well as slow down in china and Europe).
Will be an interesting year.

[The-Shoveler]

Also saw another report saying they cannot find workers for construction or Transport Job’s

Boomer are retiring and the millennials don’t seem to be interested in Blue collar work.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Also saw another report saying they cannot find workers for construction or Transport Job’s

Boomer are retiring and the millennials don’t seem to be interested in Blue collar work.[/quote]

In maybe 10 years, they won’t be able to fine software/hard engineers because the fear of outsourcing would have eliminated interest in that line of work.. But, hopefully by then I will be either retired or (to more of a bummer)…dead…

[spdrun]

Or we end up with a redux of 2011 and QE-infinity in 2016. Stocks falling = loss of confidence = lower property prices. DOW futures -141 as I write this. Earnings aren’t starting out pretty this quarter.

Personally, I’m hoping for low rates AND a good time to invest in another property. 🙂

[The-Shoveler]

I don’t think software engineers will have any problems LOL.

Now a political science major etc… is another story.

I heard one guy give good advise LOL.

Sure follow your passion, But just be sure it’s a passion that pays well first !!

[FlyerInHi]

It’s now pretty clear that those who predicted skyrocketing rates were wrong.

Considering the low rates, it was a missed opportunity for America to have an even stronger economy today. The government should have done more back to 2009-2011 to help the economy and negate the effects of the financial crisis.

[svelte]

Oh, I definitely thought interest rates would be higher by 2015. No doubt about it.

Luckily I didn’t bet the farm on it. 🙂

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
Considering the low rates, it was a missed opportunity for America to have an even stronger economy today. The government should have done more back to 2009-2011 to help the economy and negate the effects of the financial crisis.[/quote]

Brian, consider your history on this forum, and try to steer well clear of anything that even looks like political threadjacking. (For example: the above).

[flyer]

[quote=flu][quote=The-Shoveler]Also saw another report saying they cannot find workers for construction or Transport Job’s

Boomer are retiring and the millennials don’t seem to be interested in Blue collar work.[/quote]

In maybe 10 years, they won’t be able to fine software/hard engineers because the fear of outsourcing would have eliminated interest in that line of work.. But, hopefully by then I will be either retired or (to more of a bummer)…dead…[/quote]

It’s so true that many people find themselves out of jobs in their 50’s, which is exactly why I’ve always believed retirement goals should be reached by then–“just in case”–whether one ends up retiring or not.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=svelte]Oh, I definitely thought interest rates would be higher by 2015. No doubt about it.

Luckily I didn’t bet the farm on it. :-)[/quote]

In hindsight it all makes sense. I always thought it very unlikely we’d have massive inflation and the Fed “losing control” once the free markets did their free market thingies, given the glut of capacity and all the capacity coming from emerging markets.

I didn’t bet the farm but i do have 2 adjustable rate mortgages. Glad I took the risk. Despite constant predictions of higher rates, rates have been coming down since 1989.

I think econprof is right. We are going to have a prolonged period of low rates.

[svelte]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=svelte]Oh, I definitely thought interest rates would be higher by 2015. No doubt about it.

Luckily I didn’t bet the farm on it. :-)[/quote]

In hindsight it all makes sense. I always thought it very unlikely we’d have massive inflation and the Fed “losing control” once the free markets did their free market thingies, given the glut of capacity and all the capacity coming from emerging markets.

I didn’t bet the farm but i do have 2 adjustable rate mortgages. Glad I took the risk. Despite constant predictions of higher rates, rates have been coming down since 1989.

I think econprof is right. We are going to have a prolonged period of low rates.[/quote]

I’m all right with that. It means things are fairly predictable – high inflation / interest rates makes it harder to determine what things will be like in coming years.

I’m just hoping rates stay long enough for my kids to settle into their long-term homes.

I guess the way I’ve taken advantage of the low rates is by buying big ticket items. I figured that way I locked in a low APR and if rates go up I don’t really care.

Adjustable rate mortgages certainly would have been the way to go the last few years. But I sleep better with my fixed rate. I’m a born worrier so anything that adds stress to my life is not a good thing.

[Hobie]

I leaning toward Heloc rate going up. As equity over time builds, this added value banks can make some profit here.

We also have a Presidential election coming up and me thinks positive news ( higher consumer confidence) will bring out the sidelined money which will help raise interest rates. Might even happen faster than we expect.

[spdrun]

The last few blessed corrections (2007-8, 2000-1, 1991, 1987) have been right around election time 🙂

[Anonymous]

Now that you mention it, it seems that all significant economic events happen within two years before or after a presidential election…

[Author]

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