What will the bottom look/feel like?

[cr]

You’ll know it’s the bottom when the NAR reports bad news about housing.

[cr]

You’ll know it’s the bottom when the NAR reports bad news about housing.

[cr]

You’ll know it’s the bottom when the NAR reports bad news about housing.

[cr]

You’ll know it’s the bottom when the NAR reports bad news about housing.

[Aecetia]

According to RatherOpinionated on December 2006, this is what it will look like:

“Timing the Bottom
User Forum Topic
Submitted by RatherOpinionated on December 6, 2007 – 10:15am.
Rich,
the same way you know that buying CFC or FNM or FRE or C for any of your clients is one of the smartest things you’ll do all year. Markets go to extremes and get extremely oversold or overbought well before the bottom is ever identified. By the time you “know” you’ve hit bottom, it is already too late.
For example, Countrywide stock with rumors of bankruptcy etc. hit a low of 8.21 recently. Well, it’s trading at 11.49 right now – that’s a 40% bounce. Had you waited for “confirmation” of a bottom or that all their bad news was behind them – you would still be waiting and made nothing. I also recognize you can’t be the one to buy at 8.21, but if you bought anywhere under $10/share, based on knowing there is too much BAD news out there for the thing to be priced correctly, you would still be sitting on a great return.
I’d take this same philosophy to REO’s and the Real Estate market. Everyone KNOWS there are months of inventory and the pipelines are growing, they KNOW there are a bunch of REO’s that haven’t even hit the market yet – and simply because EVERYONE ALREADY KNOWS, the current prices are reflecting that already. “Efficient Market” – I’m sure you remember that from your Series 7 exam last year.
Oh, and what isn’t “priced in” yet is all the ways our nifty government will come to the rescue of lenders and borrowers. This should help support the market as well.
This is fun….”

I wonder if this is fun now?

[Aecetia]

According to RatherOpinionated on December 2006, this is what it will look like:

“Timing the Bottom
User Forum Topic
Submitted by RatherOpinionated on December 6, 2007 – 10:15am.
Rich,
the same way you know that buying CFC or FNM or FRE or C for any of your clients is one of the smartest things you’ll do all year. Markets go to extremes and get extremely oversold or overbought well before the bottom is ever identified. By the time you “know” you’ve hit bottom, it is already too late.
For example, Countrywide stock with rumors of bankruptcy etc. hit a low of 8.21 recently. Well, it’s trading at 11.49 right now – that’s a 40% bounce. Had you waited for “confirmation” of a bottom or that all their bad news was behind them – you would still be waiting and made nothing. I also recognize you can’t be the one to buy at 8.21, but if you bought anywhere under $10/share, based on knowing there is too much BAD news out there for the thing to be priced correctly, you would still be sitting on a great return.
I’d take this same philosophy to REO’s and the Real Estate market. Everyone KNOWS there are months of inventory and the pipelines are growing, they KNOW there are a bunch of REO’s that haven’t even hit the market yet – and simply because EVERYONE ALREADY KNOWS, the current prices are reflecting that already. “Efficient Market” – I’m sure you remember that from your Series 7 exam last year.
Oh, and what isn’t “priced in” yet is all the ways our nifty government will come to the rescue of lenders and borrowers. This should help support the market as well.
This is fun….”

I wonder if this is fun now?

[Aecetia]

According to RatherOpinionated on December 2006, this is what it will look like:

“Timing the Bottom
User Forum Topic
Submitted by RatherOpinionated on December 6, 2007 – 10:15am.
Rich,
the same way you know that buying CFC or FNM or FRE or C for any of your clients is one of the smartest things you’ll do all year. Markets go to extremes and get extremely oversold or overbought well before the bottom is ever identified. By the time you “know” you’ve hit bottom, it is already too late.
For example, Countrywide stock with rumors of bankruptcy etc. hit a low of 8.21 recently. Well, it’s trading at 11.49 right now – that’s a 40% bounce. Had you waited for “confirmation” of a bottom or that all their bad news was behind them – you would still be waiting and made nothing. I also recognize you can’t be the one to buy at 8.21, but if you bought anywhere under $10/share, based on knowing there is too much BAD news out there for the thing to be priced correctly, you would still be sitting on a great return.
I’d take this same philosophy to REO’s and the Real Estate market. Everyone KNOWS there are months of inventory and the pipelines are growing, they KNOW there are a bunch of REO’s that haven’t even hit the market yet – and simply because EVERYONE ALREADY KNOWS, the current prices are reflecting that already. “Efficient Market” – I’m sure you remember that from your Series 7 exam last year.
Oh, and what isn’t “priced in” yet is all the ways our nifty government will come to the rescue of lenders and borrowers. This should help support the market as well.
This is fun….”

I wonder if this is fun now?

[Aecetia]

According to RatherOpinionated on December 2006, this is what it will look like:

“Timing the Bottom
User Forum Topic
Submitted by RatherOpinionated on December 6, 2007 – 10:15am.
Rich,
the same way you know that buying CFC or FNM or FRE or C for any of your clients is one of the smartest things you’ll do all year. Markets go to extremes and get extremely oversold or overbought well before the bottom is ever identified. By the time you “know” you’ve hit bottom, it is already too late.
For example, Countrywide stock with rumors of bankruptcy etc. hit a low of 8.21 recently. Well, it’s trading at 11.49 right now – that’s a 40% bounce. Had you waited for “confirmation” of a bottom or that all their bad news was behind them – you would still be waiting and made nothing. I also recognize you can’t be the one to buy at 8.21, but if you bought anywhere under $10/share, based on knowing there is too much BAD news out there for the thing to be priced correctly, you would still be sitting on a great return.
I’d take this same philosophy to REO’s and the Real Estate market. Everyone KNOWS there are months of inventory and the pipelines are growing, they KNOW there are a bunch of REO’s that haven’t even hit the market yet – and simply because EVERYONE ALREADY KNOWS, the current prices are reflecting that already. “Efficient Market” – I’m sure you remember that from your Series 7 exam last year.
Oh, and what isn’t “priced in” yet is all the ways our nifty government will come to the rescue of lenders and borrowers. This should help support the market as well.
This is fun….”

I wonder if this is fun now?

[Aecetia]

According to RatherOpinionated on December 2006, this is what it will look like:

“Timing the Bottom
User Forum Topic
Submitted by RatherOpinionated on December 6, 2007 – 10:15am.
Rich,
the same way you know that buying CFC or FNM or FRE or C for any of your clients is one of the smartest things you’ll do all year. Markets go to extremes and get extremely oversold or overbought well before the bottom is ever identified. By the time you “know” you’ve hit bottom, it is already too late.
For example, Countrywide stock with rumors of bankruptcy etc. hit a low of 8.21 recently. Well, it’s trading at 11.49 right now – that’s a 40% bounce. Had you waited for “confirmation” of a bottom or that all their bad news was behind them – you would still be waiting and made nothing. I also recognize you can’t be the one to buy at 8.21, but if you bought anywhere under $10/share, based on knowing there is too much BAD news out there for the thing to be priced correctly, you would still be sitting on a great return.
I’d take this same philosophy to REO’s and the Real Estate market. Everyone KNOWS there are months of inventory and the pipelines are growing, they KNOW there are a bunch of REO’s that haven’t even hit the market yet – and simply because EVERYONE ALREADY KNOWS, the current prices are reflecting that already. “Efficient Market” – I’m sure you remember that from your Series 7 exam last year.
Oh, and what isn’t “priced in” yet is all the ways our nifty government will come to the rescue of lenders and borrowers. This should help support the market as well.
This is fun….”

I wonder if this is fun now?

[Anonymous]

I think the bottom is easier to identify than people think.

The middle class makes up the largest majority of home buyers. When the middle class can actually afford an average home, we have a bottom.

I’ve heard and read too many stories, myself included, where people making 6 figure incomes cannot get into a STARTER home.

So if you break the numbers down, a 100k combined family income (ie middle class-upper middle class) = 6k per month after taxes. currently the median sale is at 420. thats a good sign because it means that the mortgage payment is falling in line with a middle class wage.

I think we’re still off on the median sale price by a good 50k, so look for the median to hit mid 300’s on an average home in socal, before we officially have a bottom.

Remember as well that banks are requiring about 10 percent down with good credit, and the middle class will be hard pressed to come up with anything more than 5 percent these days.

The bottom will be hit this year, but it will sit at bottom for a very long time. what we are seeing is a return to the fundamentals that make average living in socal sustainable.

[Anonymous]

I think the bottom is easier to identify than people think.

The middle class makes up the largest majority of home buyers. When the middle class can actually afford an average home, we have a bottom.

I’ve heard and read too many stories, myself included, where people making 6 figure incomes cannot get into a STARTER home.

So if you break the numbers down, a 100k combined family income (ie middle class-upper middle class) = 6k per month after taxes. currently the median sale is at 420. thats a good sign because it means that the mortgage payment is falling in line with a middle class wage.

I think we’re still off on the median sale price by a good 50k, so look for the median to hit mid 300’s on an average home in socal, before we officially have a bottom.

Remember as well that banks are requiring about 10 percent down with good credit, and the middle class will be hard pressed to come up with anything more than 5 percent these days.

The bottom will be hit this year, but it will sit at bottom for a very long time. what we are seeing is a return to the fundamentals that make average living in socal sustainable.

[Anonymous]

I think the bottom is easier to identify than people think.

The middle class makes up the largest majority of home buyers. When the middle class can actually afford an average home, we have a bottom.

I’ve heard and read too many stories, myself included, where people making 6 figure incomes cannot get into a STARTER home.

So if you break the numbers down, a 100k combined family income (ie middle class-upper middle class) = 6k per month after taxes. currently the median sale is at 420. thats a good sign because it means that the mortgage payment is falling in line with a middle class wage.

I think we’re still off on the median sale price by a good 50k, so look for the median to hit mid 300’s on an average home in socal, before we officially have a bottom.

Remember as well that banks are requiring about 10 percent down with good credit, and the middle class will be hard pressed to come up with anything more than 5 percent these days.

The bottom will be hit this year, but it will sit at bottom for a very long time. what we are seeing is a return to the fundamentals that make average living in socal sustainable.

[Anonymous]

I think the bottom is easier to identify than people think.

The middle class makes up the largest majority of home buyers. When the middle class can actually afford an average home, we have a bottom.

I’ve heard and read too many stories, myself included, where people making 6 figure incomes cannot get into a STARTER home.

So if you break the numbers down, a 100k combined family income (ie middle class-upper middle class) = 6k per month after taxes. currently the median sale is at 420. thats a good sign because it means that the mortgage payment is falling in line with a middle class wage.

I think we’re still off on the median sale price by a good 50k, so look for the median to hit mid 300’s on an average home in socal, before we officially have a bottom.

Remember as well that banks are requiring about 10 percent down with good credit, and the middle class will be hard pressed to come up with anything more than 5 percent these days.

The bottom will be hit this year, but it will sit at bottom for a very long time. what we are seeing is a return to the fundamentals that make average living in socal sustainable.

[Anonymous]

I think the bottom is easier to identify than people think.

The middle class makes up the largest majority of home buyers. When the middle class can actually afford an average home, we have a bottom.

I’ve heard and read too many stories, myself included, where people making 6 figure incomes cannot get into a STARTER home.

So if you break the numbers down, a 100k combined family income (ie middle class-upper middle class) = 6k per month after taxes. currently the median sale is at 420. thats a good sign because it means that the mortgage payment is falling in line with a middle class wage.

I think we’re still off on the median sale price by a good 50k, so look for the median to hit mid 300’s on an average home in socal, before we officially have a bottom.

Remember as well that banks are requiring about 10 percent down with good credit, and the middle class will be hard pressed to come up with anything more than 5 percent these days.

The bottom will be hit this year, but it will sit at bottom for a very long time. what we are seeing is a return to the fundamentals that make average living in socal sustainable.

[Pasadena Broker]

Nice and round, hopefully firm if it’s been to the gym at least 3 times a week.

Giggity giggity giggity…oh yeah

Sorry, I know, serious topic, couldn’t resist the release of my inner Quagmire.

[Author]

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