What is it with all the doomsday predictions

[4plexowner]

“what made the Great Depression so bad was really the chain of bank failures in 1931-32”

two more bank closures friday after the close

that puts us to 25 so far for 2008

add in a handful of credit unions going into receivership

do you define almost 30 as a chain of bank failures or do we have to wait a few more weeks?

~

Keynesian economics were very much in place during the 20’s and 30′ – not sure what you are saying with your comment – you might argue that the electronic financial system of today allows us to pump Keynesian economics more effectively than was possible during the 20’s/30’s but Keynesian economics was alive and well during that time frame

extra credit question: why do Austrian economist never earn the Nobel prize?

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

With the commercials at their largest net short position in the indexes ever this makes this rally unlikely to last too much longer. It is being pushed by the PPT in futures, which has translated into stock arbitrage and combining that with the seasonal tendency, has gotten this little counter trend rally going. I do not believe it can last much longer, mid Jan is about as long as I think it can go, but doubt it goes on for that long. I would only change my mind on this if I found out my gay little stalker friend in here who just reappeared from under his rock was bearish, that would make me bullish.

If those lows get taken out we will be at 5500 in the Dow in a flash. I also have a hard time imagining how employment can increase with everything that is happening. 10% national rate certainly seems possible, although I doubt we get that high, but 8 to 8.5 seems likely. I also agree that the last several years were a mirage, and this needs to be fully unwound. How trillions of government spending and higher taxes on those that have money can solve this is beyond me.

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now, especially now that I see the commercials buying it last week. I also think Gold continues in it’s downtrend for awhile, the seasonal peak on average is January, so a rally into the end of the year sets up a wonderful short sale opportunity in that market, however I could re-short that any day between now and then depending on the patterns. These really high gold predictions are being made by everyone I have heard talk about it, which makes me think that is why it won’t happen.

I have never seen a trade with nobody on the other side of it work in my 25 years of trading. Also, all the selling of GOld coins and pushing of that by the investment community seems very similar to the RE push in 2005, you just can’t lose doing this etc.. I traded through a 20 year Bear market in the metals during which time we had several bad economic cycles that did not rally the metals. However, I look at the next few months in trades, not years, so I am not a great predictor of prices several years down the road, no interest in that. The fundamentals I watch are bearish for the next few months, and that is my focus.

As always, I could be wrong and that is what stops are for.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

With the commercials at their largest net short position in the indexes ever this makes this rally unlikely to last too much longer. It is being pushed by the PPT in futures, which has translated into stock arbitrage and combining that with the seasonal tendency, has gotten this little counter trend rally going. I do not believe it can last much longer, mid Jan is about as long as I think it can go, but doubt it goes on for that long. I would only change my mind on this if I found out my gay little stalker friend in here who just reappeared from under his rock was bearish, that would make me bullish.

If those lows get taken out we will be at 5500 in the Dow in a flash. I also have a hard time imagining how employment can increase with everything that is happening. 10% national rate certainly seems possible, although I doubt we get that high, but 8 to 8.5 seems likely. I also agree that the last several years were a mirage, and this needs to be fully unwound. How trillions of government spending and higher taxes on those that have money can solve this is beyond me.

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now, especially now that I see the commercials buying it last week. I also think Gold continues in it’s downtrend for awhile, the seasonal peak on average is January, so a rally into the end of the year sets up a wonderful short sale opportunity in that market, however I could re-short that any day between now and then depending on the patterns. These really high gold predictions are being made by everyone I have heard talk about it, which makes me think that is why it won’t happen.

I have never seen a trade with nobody on the other side of it work in my 25 years of trading. Also, all the selling of GOld coins and pushing of that by the investment community seems very similar to the RE push in 2005, you just can’t lose doing this etc.. I traded through a 20 year Bear market in the metals during which time we had several bad economic cycles that did not rally the metals. However, I look at the next few months in trades, not years, so I am not a great predictor of prices several years down the road, no interest in that. The fundamentals I watch are bearish for the next few months, and that is my focus.

As always, I could be wrong and that is what stops are for.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

With the commercials at their largest net short position in the indexes ever this makes this rally unlikely to last too much longer. It is being pushed by the PPT in futures, which has translated into stock arbitrage and combining that with the seasonal tendency, has gotten this little counter trend rally going. I do not believe it can last much longer, mid Jan is about as long as I think it can go, but doubt it goes on for that long. I would only change my mind on this if I found out my gay little stalker friend in here who just reappeared from under his rock was bearish, that would make me bullish.

If those lows get taken out we will be at 5500 in the Dow in a flash. I also have a hard time imagining how employment can increase with everything that is happening. 10% national rate certainly seems possible, although I doubt we get that high, but 8 to 8.5 seems likely. I also agree that the last several years were a mirage, and this needs to be fully unwound. How trillions of government spending and higher taxes on those that have money can solve this is beyond me.

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now, especially now that I see the commercials buying it last week. I also think Gold continues in it’s downtrend for awhile, the seasonal peak on average is January, so a rally into the end of the year sets up a wonderful short sale opportunity in that market, however I could re-short that any day between now and then depending on the patterns. These really high gold predictions are being made by everyone I have heard talk about it, which makes me think that is why it won’t happen.

I have never seen a trade with nobody on the other side of it work in my 25 years of trading. Also, all the selling of GOld coins and pushing of that by the investment community seems very similar to the RE push in 2005, you just can’t lose doing this etc.. I traded through a 20 year Bear market in the metals during which time we had several bad economic cycles that did not rally the metals. However, I look at the next few months in trades, not years, so I am not a great predictor of prices several years down the road, no interest in that. The fundamentals I watch are bearish for the next few months, and that is my focus.

As always, I could be wrong and that is what stops are for.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

With the commercials at their largest net short position in the indexes ever this makes this rally unlikely to last too much longer. It is being pushed by the PPT in futures, which has translated into stock arbitrage and combining that with the seasonal tendency, has gotten this little counter trend rally going. I do not believe it can last much longer, mid Jan is about as long as I think it can go, but doubt it goes on for that long. I would only change my mind on this if I found out my gay little stalker friend in here who just reappeared from under his rock was bearish, that would make me bullish.

If those lows get taken out we will be at 5500 in the Dow in a flash. I also have a hard time imagining how employment can increase with everything that is happening. 10% national rate certainly seems possible, although I doubt we get that high, but 8 to 8.5 seems likely. I also agree that the last several years were a mirage, and this needs to be fully unwound. How trillions of government spending and higher taxes on those that have money can solve this is beyond me.

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now, especially now that I see the commercials buying it last week. I also think Gold continues in it’s downtrend for awhile, the seasonal peak on average is January, so a rally into the end of the year sets up a wonderful short sale opportunity in that market, however I could re-short that any day between now and then depending on the patterns. These really high gold predictions are being made by everyone I have heard talk about it, which makes me think that is why it won’t happen.

I have never seen a trade with nobody on the other side of it work in my 25 years of trading. Also, all the selling of GOld coins and pushing of that by the investment community seems very similar to the RE push in 2005, you just can’t lose doing this etc.. I traded through a 20 year Bear market in the metals during which time we had several bad economic cycles that did not rally the metals. However, I look at the next few months in trades, not years, so I am not a great predictor of prices several years down the road, no interest in that. The fundamentals I watch are bearish for the next few months, and that is my focus.

As always, I could be wrong and that is what stops are for.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

With the commercials at their largest net short position in the indexes ever this makes this rally unlikely to last too much longer. It is being pushed by the PPT in futures, which has translated into stock arbitrage and combining that with the seasonal tendency, has gotten this little counter trend rally going. I do not believe it can last much longer, mid Jan is about as long as I think it can go, but doubt it goes on for that long. I would only change my mind on this if I found out my gay little stalker friend in here who just reappeared from under his rock was bearish, that would make me bullish.

If those lows get taken out we will be at 5500 in the Dow in a flash. I also have a hard time imagining how employment can increase with everything that is happening. 10% national rate certainly seems possible, although I doubt we get that high, but 8 to 8.5 seems likely. I also agree that the last several years were a mirage, and this needs to be fully unwound. How trillions of government spending and higher taxes on those that have money can solve this is beyond me.

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now, especially now that I see the commercials buying it last week. I also think Gold continues in it’s downtrend for awhile, the seasonal peak on average is January, so a rally into the end of the year sets up a wonderful short sale opportunity in that market, however I could re-short that any day between now and then depending on the patterns. These really high gold predictions are being made by everyone I have heard talk about it, which makes me think that is why it won’t happen.

I have never seen a trade with nobody on the other side of it work in my 25 years of trading. Also, all the selling of GOld coins and pushing of that by the investment community seems very similar to the RE push in 2005, you just can’t lose doing this etc.. I traded through a 20 year Bear market in the metals during which time we had several bad economic cycles that did not rally the metals. However, I look at the next few months in trades, not years, so I am not a great predictor of prices several years down the road, no interest in that. The fundamentals I watch are bearish for the next few months, and that is my focus.

As always, I could be wrong and that is what stops are for.

[vizcaya]

This recent bounce in the Market is probaly going to be the last chance to get out of the market before we fall to 600 levels in the S&P. I moved all my 401k into goverment securites, and out of equites. I have told anyone that will listen to do the same.

Since this is Christmas, and to better the mood I believe there is some money to be made by buying into SSO, and SDS. Both are ETF’s, and this will payoff once this market retests the lows.

I am invested in both, and if the market still has fools buying to inflate it more, then I will continue to load up on the ETF’s. I may be wrong, but from the data I have seen its a better play.

However, the goverment has been manipulating this market, and I was denied a nice payoff Friday morning with the White House stepping in to bailout the Autos. These bailouts will only delay the inevitable.

[vizcaya]

This recent bounce in the Market is probaly going to be the last chance to get out of the market before we fall to 600 levels in the S&P. I moved all my 401k into goverment securites, and out of equites. I have told anyone that will listen to do the same.

Since this is Christmas, and to better the mood I believe there is some money to be made by buying into SSO, and SDS. Both are ETF’s, and this will payoff once this market retests the lows.

I am invested in both, and if the market still has fools buying to inflate it more, then I will continue to load up on the ETF’s. I may be wrong, but from the data I have seen its a better play.

However, the goverment has been manipulating this market, and I was denied a nice payoff Friday morning with the White House stepping in to bailout the Autos. These bailouts will only delay the inevitable.

[vizcaya]

This recent bounce in the Market is probaly going to be the last chance to get out of the market before we fall to 600 levels in the S&P. I moved all my 401k into goverment securites, and out of equites. I have told anyone that will listen to do the same.

Since this is Christmas, and to better the mood I believe there is some money to be made by buying into SSO, and SDS. Both are ETF’s, and this will payoff once this market retests the lows.

I am invested in both, and if the market still has fools buying to inflate it more, then I will continue to load up on the ETF’s. I may be wrong, but from the data I have seen its a better play.

However, the goverment has been manipulating this market, and I was denied a nice payoff Friday morning with the White House stepping in to bailout the Autos. These bailouts will only delay the inevitable.

[vizcaya]

This recent bounce in the Market is probaly going to be the last chance to get out of the market before we fall to 600 levels in the S&P. I moved all my 401k into goverment securites, and out of equites. I have told anyone that will listen to do the same.

Since this is Christmas, and to better the mood I believe there is some money to be made by buying into SSO, and SDS. Both are ETF’s, and this will payoff once this market retests the lows.

I am invested in both, and if the market still has fools buying to inflate it more, then I will continue to load up on the ETF’s. I may be wrong, but from the data I have seen its a better play.

However, the goverment has been manipulating this market, and I was denied a nice payoff Friday morning with the White House stepping in to bailout the Autos. These bailouts will only delay the inevitable.

[vizcaya]

This recent bounce in the Market is probaly going to be the last chance to get out of the market before we fall to 600 levels in the S&P. I moved all my 401k into goverment securites, and out of equites. I have told anyone that will listen to do the same.

Since this is Christmas, and to better the mood I believe there is some money to be made by buying into SSO, and SDS. Both are ETF’s, and this will payoff once this market retests the lows.

I am invested in both, and if the market still has fools buying to inflate it more, then I will continue to load up on the ETF’s. I may be wrong, but from the data I have seen its a better play.

However, the goverment has been manipulating this market, and I was denied a nice payoff Friday morning with the White House stepping in to bailout the Autos. These bailouts will only delay the inevitable.

[socrattt]

Esmith are you looking for a job? I need to hire a salesman with false sense of reality! Wow, those claims were mighty bold, but I like the enthusiasm.

We can talk numbers, graphs and charts all you want, but in my opinion they mean nothing. Every move made by our government is unprecedented. There is no possible way any one of us can predict what will truly happen because our economic situation is currently controlled. Maybe Esmith is right from the standpoint that we need to hedge our bet on the opposite of our emotions, but my gut tells me to stay in my short ETF positions and ride them like the wind.

I have heard some interesting moves by the FDIC as of late, which leads me to believe they are expecting some serious trouble here in the near future. They recently leased a 200,000sqft building in Orange County to hire some 600 employees. I also heard a rumor that they only have $6 billion left in cash (not sure if that means anything as they are heavily insured themselves).

Unemployment is a ridiculous topic. If you everyone took a moment to see how unemployment was calculated you would laugh (door to door by the census bureau). By almost all normal calculations you would see that we are already over 10% nationally. 6.7% is merely a way of keeping emotions high in this country.

Let’s be honest we are still greedy and until that changes we won’t see any progression with our economy. We try to help the auto makers and the UAW said that laborers were not willing to take a pay cut to save their companies. What kind of world are we in? Our government has offered our tax dollars to save the Big 3 and they balk because they feel that they deserve $65/hour+/- to build a pile a junk!

All arrows point south at this time and even if the Fed pushes the interest rate down it will do nothing but prop home prices up for a little while longer. When the new shift in inventory begins at the end of Q1, beginning of Q2 we should see some additional corrections in home prices. It is possible that things will stabilize for a short period of time if rates do actually make it as low as 4%, but that seems highly unlikely. At the current rate of 5 3/8% a $500K loan with 10% down is still roughly $3,700+/- PITI with MI. So unless everyone moves to Temecula or Santee I can’t imagine prices won’t continue to move downward. Those $100K salaries for $10K of production are long gone.

I am with those that question WHERE America is going to find that next big bubble to rely on. Right now we can’t build a car right, we are too prideful to flip hambugers, yet we aren’t too proud to beg! Let’s make Americans work hard again for the American dream and stop handing everything out on a silver platter!

[socrattt]

Esmith are you looking for a job? I need to hire a salesman with false sense of reality! Wow, those claims were mighty bold, but I like the enthusiasm.

We can talk numbers, graphs and charts all you want, but in my opinion they mean nothing. Every move made by our government is unprecedented. There is no possible way any one of us can predict what will truly happen because our economic situation is currently controlled. Maybe Esmith is right from the standpoint that we need to hedge our bet on the opposite of our emotions, but my gut tells me to stay in my short ETF positions and ride them like the wind.

I have heard some interesting moves by the FDIC as of late, which leads me to believe they are expecting some serious trouble here in the near future. They recently leased a 200,000sqft building in Orange County to hire some 600 employees. I also heard a rumor that they only have $6 billion left in cash (not sure if that means anything as they are heavily insured themselves).

Unemployment is a ridiculous topic. If you everyone took a moment to see how unemployment was calculated you would laugh (door to door by the census bureau). By almost all normal calculations you would see that we are already over 10% nationally. 6.7% is merely a way of keeping emotions high in this country.

Let’s be honest we are still greedy and until that changes we won’t see any progression with our economy. We try to help the auto makers and the UAW said that laborers were not willing to take a pay cut to save their companies. What kind of world are we in? Our government has offered our tax dollars to save the Big 3 and they balk because they feel that they deserve $65/hour+/- to build a pile a junk!

All arrows point south at this time and even if the Fed pushes the interest rate down it will do nothing but prop home prices up for a little while longer. When the new shift in inventory begins at the end of Q1, beginning of Q2 we should see some additional corrections in home prices. It is possible that things will stabilize for a short period of time if rates do actually make it as low as 4%, but that seems highly unlikely. At the current rate of 5 3/8% a $500K loan with 10% down is still roughly $3,700+/- PITI with MI. So unless everyone moves to Temecula or Santee I can’t imagine prices won’t continue to move downward. Those $100K salaries for $10K of production are long gone.

I am with those that question WHERE America is going to find that next big bubble to rely on. Right now we can’t build a car right, we are too prideful to flip hambugers, yet we aren’t too proud to beg! Let’s make Americans work hard again for the American dream and stop handing everything out on a silver platter!

[socrattt]

Esmith are you looking for a job? I need to hire a salesman with false sense of reality! Wow, those claims were mighty bold, but I like the enthusiasm.

We can talk numbers, graphs and charts all you want, but in my opinion they mean nothing. Every move made by our government is unprecedented. There is no possible way any one of us can predict what will truly happen because our economic situation is currently controlled. Maybe Esmith is right from the standpoint that we need to hedge our bet on the opposite of our emotions, but my gut tells me to stay in my short ETF positions and ride them like the wind.

I have heard some interesting moves by the FDIC as of late, which leads me to believe they are expecting some serious trouble here in the near future. They recently leased a 200,000sqft building in Orange County to hire some 600 employees. I also heard a rumor that they only have $6 billion left in cash (not sure if that means anything as they are heavily insured themselves).

Unemployment is a ridiculous topic. If you everyone took a moment to see how unemployment was calculated you would laugh (door to door by the census bureau). By almost all normal calculations you would see that we are already over 10% nationally. 6.7% is merely a way of keeping emotions high in this country.

Let’s be honest we are still greedy and until that changes we won’t see any progression with our economy. We try to help the auto makers and the UAW said that laborers were not willing to take a pay cut to save their companies. What kind of world are we in? Our government has offered our tax dollars to save the Big 3 and they balk because they feel that they deserve $65/hour+/- to build a pile a junk!

All arrows point south at this time and even if the Fed pushes the interest rate down it will do nothing but prop home prices up for a little while longer. When the new shift in inventory begins at the end of Q1, beginning of Q2 we should see some additional corrections in home prices. It is possible that things will stabilize for a short period of time if rates do actually make it as low as 4%, but that seems highly unlikely. At the current rate of 5 3/8% a $500K loan with 10% down is still roughly $3,700+/- PITI with MI. So unless everyone moves to Temecula or Santee I can’t imagine prices won’t continue to move downward. Those $100K salaries for $10K of production are long gone.

I am with those that question WHERE America is going to find that next big bubble to rely on. Right now we can’t build a car right, we are too prideful to flip hambugers, yet we aren’t too proud to beg! Let’s make Americans work hard again for the American dream and stop handing everything out on a silver platter!

[socrattt]

Esmith are you looking for a job? I need to hire a salesman with false sense of reality! Wow, those claims were mighty bold, but I like the enthusiasm.

We can talk numbers, graphs and charts all you want, but in my opinion they mean nothing. Every move made by our government is unprecedented. There is no possible way any one of us can predict what will truly happen because our economic situation is currently controlled. Maybe Esmith is right from the standpoint that we need to hedge our bet on the opposite of our emotions, but my gut tells me to stay in my short ETF positions and ride them like the wind.

I have heard some interesting moves by the FDIC as of late, which leads me to believe they are expecting some serious trouble here in the near future. They recently leased a 200,000sqft building in Orange County to hire some 600 employees. I also heard a rumor that they only have $6 billion left in cash (not sure if that means anything as they are heavily insured themselves).

Unemployment is a ridiculous topic. If you everyone took a moment to see how unemployment was calculated you would laugh (door to door by the census bureau). By almost all normal calculations you would see that we are already over 10% nationally. 6.7% is merely a way of keeping emotions high in this country.

Let’s be honest we are still greedy and until that changes we won’t see any progression with our economy. We try to help the auto makers and the UAW said that laborers were not willing to take a pay cut to save their companies. What kind of world are we in? Our government has offered our tax dollars to save the Big 3 and they balk because they feel that they deserve $65/hour+/- to build a pile a junk!

All arrows point south at this time and even if the Fed pushes the interest rate down it will do nothing but prop home prices up for a little while longer. When the new shift in inventory begins at the end of Q1, beginning of Q2 we should see some additional corrections in home prices. It is possible that things will stabilize for a short period of time if rates do actually make it as low as 4%, but that seems highly unlikely. At the current rate of 5 3/8% a $500K loan with 10% down is still roughly $3,700+/- PITI with MI. So unless everyone moves to Temecula or Santee I can’t imagine prices won’t continue to move downward. Those $100K salaries for $10K of production are long gone.

I am with those that question WHERE America is going to find that next big bubble to rely on. Right now we can’t build a car right, we are too prideful to flip hambugers, yet we aren’t too proud to beg! Let’s make Americans work hard again for the American dream and stop handing everything out on a silver platter!

[Author]

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