What are your thoughts? Housing going UP or DOWN?

[sd_matt]

Recast ( or is it reset? ) number two just getting underway. 57% is in CA. No renewal of unemployment benefits.

Aren’t these the 800lb gorilla in the room?

…and interest rates can only get down to 4% if every middleman wants to continue to make a profit…if I’m correct

I vote down for SD.

[sdrealtor]

Recast and reset is a big unknown as many of them will drop the interest rates. so amny things at play its impossible to isolate one or two plus or minus factors as overiding. To me the biggest thing is the psychology out there which is flat to slightly down. Toss in a seasonal slowdown and we could see 5 to 10% down over the next 6 months depending upon submarket.

[sdrealtor]

Recast and reset is a big unknown as many of them will drop the interest rates. so amny things at play its impossible to isolate one or two plus or minus factors as overiding. To me the biggest thing is the psychology out there which is flat to slightly down. Toss in a seasonal slowdown and we could see 5 to 10% down over the next 6 months depending upon submarket.

[sdrealtor]

Recast and reset is a big unknown as many of them will drop the interest rates. so amny things at play its impossible to isolate one or two plus or minus factors as overiding. To me the biggest thing is the psychology out there which is flat to slightly down. Toss in a seasonal slowdown and we could see 5 to 10% down over the next 6 months depending upon submarket.

[sdrealtor]

Recast and reset is a big unknown as many of them will drop the interest rates. so amny things at play its impossible to isolate one or two plus or minus factors as overiding. To me the biggest thing is the psychology out there which is flat to slightly down. Toss in a seasonal slowdown and we could see 5 to 10% down over the next 6 months depending upon submarket.

[sdrealtor]

Recast and reset is a big unknown as many of them will drop the interest rates. so amny things at play its impossible to isolate one or two plus or minus factors as overiding. To me the biggest thing is the psychology out there which is flat to slightly down. Toss in a seasonal slowdown and we could see 5 to 10% down over the next 6 months depending upon submarket.

[bearishgurl]

Just rec’d this msg this afternoon from First Tuesday, a CA RE information and education site that I belong to. It’s a synopsis on the impact boomers will have on RE transactions when they retire en-masse, downsize and move to be more urban, just like I stated last night on this thread.

http://firsttuesdayjournal.com/boomers-retire-and-california-trembles/

[quote=outtamojo]And when I refer to Bay Area, I refer to between San Francisco and all the way to northern San Jose, with the exception to parts of East Bay and East Palo Alto….not off-locations like Gilroy.

My hole in the dump Santa Clara home has a still pretty good sizeable demand if it were to be sold, and it’s currently renting no where near what it could rent down here…And it’s a dump…But up there, people are use to paying a lot for a dump lol….

Great synopsis of Bay Area – I grew up there, Oakland specifically, in fact just spent a week up there . . . the “safer” places are limited to suberbia like Cupertino and Pleasanton so you never know who is next to you on the freeway going to where they live if you know what I mean. You need to include the eastern part of I580 in your definition cause Oracle is out there and the parks in Pleasanton and Dublin are filled with Asians and East Indians and their little kids : )[/quote]

outtamojo, I grew up there as well and was last there and also Lake Tahoe in April. I tend to go up there 2-4 times per yr. I just put my last kid on a plane to SF this afternoon to a sibling for one “last harrah” for their six-week break cuz Sweetwater schools start July 21 this year (ouch). I will be revisiting for the “crush” this fall (purple feet – LOL!). I always drive and will take my dog and like to have my car there as well.

I have considered retiring to Cupertino or Saratoga in four years and working part time at a Silicon Valley law firm to keep busy in the mornings. The pay is VERY GOOD up there. South Lake Tahoe (CA side) is on my list as well.

I, too, grew up in Alameda County until high school, specifically Dublin/San Ramon area. It was a melting pot back then as well but the population for Dublin/SR and Pleasanton combined, was only about 16K when we left in 1970, just as the first tracks were being laid for the BART. There was no I-680 and I-580 as we know it was an alternating two and four-lane road under different names depending on where it went thru (surrounding by golden rolling hills, of course). Dtn. Livermore was just a few blocks long with gangplanks (similar to old SD Embarcadero) for sidewalks and grazing cows everywhere. State trailers would park outside our school twice a year to administer free oral polio, smallpox, tetanus, diptheria, rubella vaccines, etc. City swim lessons were free.

Whenever I have driven the 680 in recent years I am always shocked by the megalopolis it’s become.

I still cherish looking at old photos from SF on up to Mendocino Co., down thru San Jose and the East Bay area because most of my family members in them are now deceased.

[bearishgurl]

Just rec’d this msg this afternoon from First Tuesday, a CA RE information and education site that I belong to. It’s a synopsis on the impact boomers will have on RE transactions when they retire en-masse, downsize and move to be more urban, just like I stated last night on this thread.

http://firsttuesdayjournal.com/boomers-retire-and-california-trembles/

[quote=outtamojo]And when I refer to Bay Area, I refer to between San Francisco and all the way to northern San Jose, with the exception to parts of East Bay and East Palo Alto….not off-locations like Gilroy.

My hole in the dump Santa Clara home has a still pretty good sizeable demand if it were to be sold, and it’s currently renting no where near what it could rent down here…And it’s a dump…But up there, people are use to paying a lot for a dump lol….

Great synopsis of Bay Area – I grew up there, Oakland specifically, in fact just spent a week up there . . . the “safer” places are limited to suberbia like Cupertino and Pleasanton so you never know who is next to you on the freeway going to where they live if you know what I mean. You need to include the eastern part of I580 in your definition cause Oracle is out there and the parks in Pleasanton and Dublin are filled with Asians and East Indians and their little kids : )[/quote]

outtamojo, I grew up there as well and was last there and also Lake Tahoe in April. I tend to go up there 2-4 times per yr. I just put my last kid on a plane to SF this afternoon to a sibling for one “last harrah” for their six-week break cuz Sweetwater schools start July 21 this year (ouch). I will be revisiting for the “crush” this fall (purple feet – LOL!). I always drive and will take my dog and like to have my car there as well.

I have considered retiring to Cupertino or Saratoga in four years and working part time at a Silicon Valley law firm to keep busy in the mornings. The pay is VERY GOOD up there. South Lake Tahoe (CA side) is on my list as well.

I, too, grew up in Alameda County until high school, specifically Dublin/San Ramon area. It was a melting pot back then as well but the population for Dublin/SR and Pleasanton combined, was only about 16K when we left in 1970, just as the first tracks were being laid for the BART. There was no I-680 and I-580 as we know it was an alternating two and four-lane road under different names depending on where it went thru (surrounding by golden rolling hills, of course). Dtn. Livermore was just a few blocks long with gangplanks (similar to old SD Embarcadero) for sidewalks and grazing cows everywhere. State trailers would park outside our school twice a year to administer free oral polio, smallpox, tetanus, diptheria, rubella vaccines, etc. City swim lessons were free.

Whenever I have driven the 680 in recent years I am always shocked by the megalopolis it’s become.

I still cherish looking at old photos from SF on up to Mendocino Co., down thru San Jose and the East Bay area because most of my family members in them are now deceased.

[bearishgurl]

Just rec’d this msg this afternoon from First Tuesday, a CA RE information and education site that I belong to. It’s a synopsis on the impact boomers will have on RE transactions when they retire en-masse, downsize and move to be more urban, just like I stated last night on this thread.

http://firsttuesdayjournal.com/boomers-retire-and-california-trembles/

[quote=outtamojo]And when I refer to Bay Area, I refer to between San Francisco and all the way to northern San Jose, with the exception to parts of East Bay and East Palo Alto….not off-locations like Gilroy.

My hole in the dump Santa Clara home has a still pretty good sizeable demand if it were to be sold, and it’s currently renting no where near what it could rent down here…And it’s a dump…But up there, people are use to paying a lot for a dump lol….

Great synopsis of Bay Area – I grew up there, Oakland specifically, in fact just spent a week up there . . . the “safer” places are limited to suberbia like Cupertino and Pleasanton so you never know who is next to you on the freeway going to where they live if you know what I mean. You need to include the eastern part of I580 in your definition cause Oracle is out there and the parks in Pleasanton and Dublin are filled with Asians and East Indians and their little kids : )[/quote]

outtamojo, I grew up there as well and was last there and also Lake Tahoe in April. I tend to go up there 2-4 times per yr. I just put my last kid on a plane to SF this afternoon to a sibling for one “last harrah” for their six-week break cuz Sweetwater schools start July 21 this year (ouch). I will be revisiting for the “crush” this fall (purple feet – LOL!). I always drive and will take my dog and like to have my car there as well.

I have considered retiring to Cupertino or Saratoga in four years and working part time at a Silicon Valley law firm to keep busy in the mornings. The pay is VERY GOOD up there. South Lake Tahoe (CA side) is on my list as well.

I, too, grew up in Alameda County until high school, specifically Dublin/San Ramon area. It was a melting pot back then as well but the population for Dublin/SR and Pleasanton combined, was only about 16K when we left in 1970, just as the first tracks were being laid for the BART. There was no I-680 and I-580 as we know it was an alternating two and four-lane road under different names depending on where it went thru (surrounding by golden rolling hills, of course). Dtn. Livermore was just a few blocks long with gangplanks (similar to old SD Embarcadero) for sidewalks and grazing cows everywhere. State trailers would park outside our school twice a year to administer free oral polio, smallpox, tetanus, diptheria, rubella vaccines, etc. City swim lessons were free.

Whenever I have driven the 680 in recent years I am always shocked by the megalopolis it’s become.

I still cherish looking at old photos from SF on up to Mendocino Co., down thru San Jose and the East Bay area because most of my family members in them are now deceased.

[bearishgurl]

Just rec’d this msg this afternoon from First Tuesday, a CA RE information and education site that I belong to. It’s a synopsis on the impact boomers will have on RE transactions when they retire en-masse, downsize and move to be more urban, just like I stated last night on this thread.

http://firsttuesdayjournal.com/boomers-retire-and-california-trembles/

[quote=outtamojo]And when I refer to Bay Area, I refer to between San Francisco and all the way to northern San Jose, with the exception to parts of East Bay and East Palo Alto….not off-locations like Gilroy.

My hole in the dump Santa Clara home has a still pretty good sizeable demand if it were to be sold, and it’s currently renting no where near what it could rent down here…And it’s a dump…But up there, people are use to paying a lot for a dump lol….

Great synopsis of Bay Area – I grew up there, Oakland specifically, in fact just spent a week up there . . . the “safer” places are limited to suberbia like Cupertino and Pleasanton so you never know who is next to you on the freeway going to where they live if you know what I mean. You need to include the eastern part of I580 in your definition cause Oracle is out there and the parks in Pleasanton and Dublin are filled with Asians and East Indians and their little kids : )[/quote]

outtamojo, I grew up there as well and was last there and also Lake Tahoe in April. I tend to go up there 2-4 times per yr. I just put my last kid on a plane to SF this afternoon to a sibling for one “last harrah” for their six-week break cuz Sweetwater schools start July 21 this year (ouch). I will be revisiting for the “crush” this fall (purple feet – LOL!). I always drive and will take my dog and like to have my car there as well.

I have considered retiring to Cupertino or Saratoga in four years and working part time at a Silicon Valley law firm to keep busy in the mornings. The pay is VERY GOOD up there. South Lake Tahoe (CA side) is on my list as well.

I, too, grew up in Alameda County until high school, specifically Dublin/San Ramon area. It was a melting pot back then as well but the population for Dublin/SR and Pleasanton combined, was only about 16K when we left in 1970, just as the first tracks were being laid for the BART. There was no I-680 and I-580 as we know it was an alternating two and four-lane road under different names depending on where it went thru (surrounding by golden rolling hills, of course). Dtn. Livermore was just a few blocks long with gangplanks (similar to old SD Embarcadero) for sidewalks and grazing cows everywhere. State trailers would park outside our school twice a year to administer free oral polio, smallpox, tetanus, diptheria, rubella vaccines, etc. City swim lessons were free.

Whenever I have driven the 680 in recent years I am always shocked by the megalopolis it’s become.

I still cherish looking at old photos from SF on up to Mendocino Co., down thru San Jose and the East Bay area because most of my family members in them are now deceased.

[bearishgurl]

Just rec’d this msg this afternoon from First Tuesday, a CA RE information and education site that I belong to. It’s a synopsis on the impact boomers will have on RE transactions when they retire en-masse, downsize and move to be more urban, just like I stated last night on this thread.

http://firsttuesdayjournal.com/boomers-retire-and-california-trembles/

[quote=outtamojo]And when I refer to Bay Area, I refer to between San Francisco and all the way to northern San Jose, with the exception to parts of East Bay and East Palo Alto….not off-locations like Gilroy.

My hole in the dump Santa Clara home has a still pretty good sizeable demand if it were to be sold, and it’s currently renting no where near what it could rent down here…And it’s a dump…But up there, people are use to paying a lot for a dump lol….

Great synopsis of Bay Area – I grew up there, Oakland specifically, in fact just spent a week up there . . . the “safer” places are limited to suberbia like Cupertino and Pleasanton so you never know who is next to you on the freeway going to where they live if you know what I mean. You need to include the eastern part of I580 in your definition cause Oracle is out there and the parks in Pleasanton and Dublin are filled with Asians and East Indians and their little kids : )[/quote]

outtamojo, I grew up there as well and was last there and also Lake Tahoe in April. I tend to go up there 2-4 times per yr. I just put my last kid on a plane to SF this afternoon to a sibling for one “last harrah” for their six-week break cuz Sweetwater schools start July 21 this year (ouch). I will be revisiting for the “crush” this fall (purple feet – LOL!). I always drive and will take my dog and like to have my car there as well.

I have considered retiring to Cupertino or Saratoga in four years and working part time at a Silicon Valley law firm to keep busy in the mornings. The pay is VERY GOOD up there. South Lake Tahoe (CA side) is on my list as well.

I, too, grew up in Alameda County until high school, specifically Dublin/San Ramon area. It was a melting pot back then as well but the population for Dublin/SR and Pleasanton combined, was only about 16K when we left in 1970, just as the first tracks were being laid for the BART. There was no I-680 and I-580 as we know it was an alternating two and four-lane road under different names depending on where it went thru (surrounding by golden rolling hills, of course). Dtn. Livermore was just a few blocks long with gangplanks (similar to old SD Embarcadero) for sidewalks and grazing cows everywhere. State trailers would park outside our school twice a year to administer free oral polio, smallpox, tetanus, diptheria, rubella vaccines, etc. City swim lessons were free.

Whenever I have driven the 680 in recent years I am always shocked by the megalopolis it’s become.

I still cherish looking at old photos from SF on up to Mendocino Co., down thru San Jose and the East Bay area because most of my family members in them are now deceased.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]BG
That sounds about right for the typical Chula Vista elderly couple. Not everyone lives in CV or coastal county. The examples are all over the board. With that said very few of the greatest genration inerited anything at all. Most were immigrants or 1st generation americans. Now inheritances are far more common for boomers than they were for parents of boomers.[/quote]

Very true, but you also have to consider the fact that Boomers tend to have MUCH more debt than the “Greatest Generation,” so instead of adding to their own wealth, they might just be going from negative $300K net worth to zero. That’s certainly better than nothing, but not necessarily enough to make them buy up all kinds of high-end houses.

BTW, even in your example where they have a $1MM estate tax, the kids are SELLING property, not buying it…or, they might sell some and buy some other properties, having a neutral effect on supply/demand/prices.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]BG
That sounds about right for the typical Chula Vista elderly couple. Not everyone lives in CV or coastal county. The examples are all over the board. With that said very few of the greatest genration inerited anything at all. Most were immigrants or 1st generation americans. Now inheritances are far more common for boomers than they were for parents of boomers.[/quote]

Very true, but you also have to consider the fact that Boomers tend to have MUCH more debt than the “Greatest Generation,” so instead of adding to their own wealth, they might just be going from negative $300K net worth to zero. That’s certainly better than nothing, but not necessarily enough to make them buy up all kinds of high-end houses.

BTW, even in your example where they have a $1MM estate tax, the kids are SELLING property, not buying it…or, they might sell some and buy some other properties, having a neutral effect on supply/demand/prices.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]BG
That sounds about right for the typical Chula Vista elderly couple. Not everyone lives in CV or coastal county. The examples are all over the board. With that said very few of the greatest genration inerited anything at all. Most were immigrants or 1st generation americans. Now inheritances are far more common for boomers than they were for parents of boomers.[/quote]

Very true, but you also have to consider the fact that Boomers tend to have MUCH more debt than the “Greatest Generation,” so instead of adding to their own wealth, they might just be going from negative $300K net worth to zero. That’s certainly better than nothing, but not necessarily enough to make them buy up all kinds of high-end houses.

BTW, even in your example where they have a $1MM estate tax, the kids are SELLING property, not buying it…or, they might sell some and buy some other properties, having a neutral effect on supply/demand/prices.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]BG
That sounds about right for the typical Chula Vista elderly couple. Not everyone lives in CV or coastal county. The examples are all over the board. With that said very few of the greatest genration inerited anything at all. Most were immigrants or 1st generation americans. Now inheritances are far more common for boomers than they were for parents of boomers.[/quote]

Very true, but you also have to consider the fact that Boomers tend to have MUCH more debt than the “Greatest Generation,” so instead of adding to their own wealth, they might just be going from negative $300K net worth to zero. That’s certainly better than nothing, but not necessarily enough to make them buy up all kinds of high-end houses.

BTW, even in your example where they have a $1MM estate tax, the kids are SELLING property, not buying it…or, they might sell some and buy some other properties, having a neutral effect on supply/demand/prices.

[Author]

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