Well the world is backwards too in Japan… BOJ just went with a negative interest rate…

[Coronita]

Lol….

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-stocks-cautious-oil-bounces-003308884.html

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asian shares jumped on Friday and the yen swooned after the Bank of Japan stunned markets by adopting negative interest rates in its boldest step yet to reinflate the long-languishing economy.

The yen fell across the board and sovereign bonds rallied after Japan’s central bank said it would charge 0.1 percent for excess reserves parked with the institution, an aggressive policy pioneered by the European Central Bank.

It also said rates could go even more negative if needed to ensure inflation gravitated to its long-held, and often missed, target of 2 percent.

The move came as a major surprise to investors, who had thought policy makers too cautious to ever adopt such radical measures. The reaction was immediate with the dollar surging over two yen to 121.14 (JPY=).

The dollar was up 0.44 percent against a basket of currencies (.DXY), while the euro (EUR=) eased back to $1.0911 (EUR=).

Japan’s Nikkei share index (.N225) extended early gains to rise 3.4 percent, and lifted bourses across the region. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 1.3 percent.

The Shanghai benchmark (.SSEC) rose 2.0 percent, attempting to bounce from steep losses early in the week.

The buying spread to U.S. debt markets as investors wagered the BOJ decision would make it even harder for the Federal Reserve to hike rates four times this year, as originally envisioned by its policy board.

Fed fund futures rose to imply a rate of 51 basis points by year end, compared to 90 basis points a month ago. Futures for U.S. 10-year bonds rose 5 ticks.

The promise of extra global stimulus gave an added fillip to oil, which had already risen for three sessions on talk of a possible deal to pare back excess supply.

[Coronita]

I’d like to get a negative mortgage rate please.

[spdrun]

.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=flu]I’d like to get a negative mortgage rate please.[/quote]

LOL, well maybe Low 3’s .

Time to refi again LOL.

[livinincali]

[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=flu]I’d like to get a negative mortgage rate please.[/quote]

LOL, well maybe Low 3’s .

Time to refi again LOL.[/quote]

In Japan 10 year mortgage rates are like 1% and 30 year are somewhere in the 2’s

[FlyerInHi]

Oh, where, where is the expected dollar debasement and hyperinflation that people like Ron Paul were predicting? I have been waiting for 10 years now.

If one had gold bars, the bank would charge to store it in its vault. Why the entitlement that banks should pay to store paper/digital cash? Invest the cash in something.

The idea of capitalism is that one should take the initiative to invest cash in income producing stuff. That spurs the economy. It takes smarts and enterprise to identify good investments. Maybe that’s what we want.

Paradoxically, the dream of owners of capital would be to do nothing and earn interest on money itself.

[FlyerInHi]

Now is one of the best times to hold US Dollars.

If you’re Canadian-American, Russian-American, Iranian-American, Cuban-American, any hyphenated-American, or even plain-old-American, with contacts abroad, maybe now is the time to arbitrage and acquire assets abroad.

The Canadian Dollar is 50% off.

[spdrun]

The good thing is that the turmoil abroad will start hitting US assets as well soon. Not that a ~13% decline in stocks has been such a bad start, in fact, it’s been rather beautiful. GDP last quarter was almost flat as well.

So it might become a good time to become an American with cash, even if not invested abroad, if we finally go into an overdue recession.

Here’s to turmoil! DRINK!

[FlyerInHi]

Auto sales are at all times high.

Low gas prices and mild weather in the north east (notwithstanding the blizzard) combined with low heating-oil prices put real money in people’s pockets. Comes spring, they will be spending the money.

Dow? maybe oil shares getting hit?

Unease in China and the rest of the world is causing people to move money to our red, white and blue shores.

2016 will be a good year. 2017 is yet to be predicted.

[spdrun]

NASDAQ is getting hit too, so it’s not just oil shares. High dollar is actually making US assets more expensive for foreign cattle to buy. And apparently, we’re clamping down on foreign cattle using shell companies to buy high-end property.

Auto sales are indicative of a credit bubble — bumemployment is lagging, and credit will need to be paid off. Or not.

Low oil prices/warm weather are helping the Northeast, but fucking other places like Texas hard.

[FlyerInHi]

US stock market doesn’t track the US economy. US companies are multinationals, and for them to prosper, we need robust world GDP growth which is now lacking.

The US economy is the best performing big economy in the developed world. That speaks volumes to our good economic policies.

low oil prices are hitting oil shares and employment in the oil patch, but employment is in the thousands, not millions. Those are good paying blue collar jobs and low oil prices is tough on them, but good for the rest of us.

Low energy prices always translate to a better economy (gee I sound like a Republican). There is a lag, but we will see it in the spring. Comes spring break, people will traveling and enjoying and feeling better as the sun shines again in the northern part of the country.

Credit bubble spurring auto sales? How about low interest rates, low payments, and pent up demand from years of holding back?

2016 will be a good year. No dollar debasement in sight.

[spdrun]

Oil prices are not always a sign of a good economy. See also 2008-2009, when oil crashed hard.

I’m not speaking about dollar debasement at all. I’m hoping for a strong dollar and a tepid economy. Best of both worlds for investment.

Also, let’s face it: if the average American was doing so well, there wouldn’t be the large-scale hatred of Obama and support for demagogues that there is today.

Someone did a survey, and something like 50% of Americans didn’t have the cash to cover even a $1000 unexpected expense. Those that did have the money just took a 13% bris without anasthesia on their savings if they were in the stock market.

Also, the last auto sales record was in y2k, which was also the year of the NASDAQ peak and just before the 2001-2 ‘cession.

[FlyerInHi]

Vegas and Orlando tourism, very middle-class American destinations, are hitting tourist records. Not for gambling, but adult and family entertainment. I consider that a good indicator.

http://www.reviewjournal.com/business/tourism/visitation-las-vegas-predicted-hit-425m-2016

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2015/12/u-s-travel-spending-spells-good-news-for-orlandos.html

People are better off, but they do feel anxious.

[quote=spdrun]
Also, let’s face it: if the average American was doing so well, there wouldn’t be the large-scale hatred of Obama and support for demagogues that there is today.[/quote]

Since you asked, I think subliminal racism on the part of some Whites, maybe even Hispanics and Asians who associate with historically higher-status Whites. Obama who is highly intelligent, street smart but academic and professorial with a command of the abstracts of policy, thin and athletic, young and didn’t fully pay his dues before rising to the top, is too difficult to process for many people.

Anxiety about fast demographic, tech changes, and continuing education, that require people to constantly keep up or be passed over. Incidentally that’s what a capitalistic, productive, meritocratic economy should be all about — nobody is guaranteed a place in the sun.

But people are tribal and traditional — they say they are for merit, for the smartest to get the best jobs and most money. But they are most comfortable with slow change and for new entrants to slowly pay their dues, work social connections, and rise over generations.

Of course, there’s also the hourglass economy.

[quote=spdrun]
Also, the last auto sales record was in y2k, which was also the year of the NASDAQ peak and just before the 2001-2 ‘cession.[/quote]

Maybe you’re right. I’m not predicting 2017 yet. I’m talking about 2016.

A recession will happen, but a couple of quarters of contraction ain’t bad after years of growth, and maybe good if followed by robust growth afterwards.

Recession is not cataclysm and the press makes too much of it. It’s the long term trend that matters. I’m feeling positive about our policies. If we continue this trend, a couple decades down the road, we will have double the standard of living of Western Europe and Japan. And we’re already ahead.

[spdrun]

Subliminal racism is an issue, but not the whole of the issue. If it were the whole of the issue, Obama would not have been elected twice. This election speaks to the unhappiness of the majority with their situation.

Obama might be a convenient target for irritation (and the attacks on his wife by the webosphere are really upsetting), especially because of his race. But that’s not the whole of the issue.

BTW, I’m not speaking to 2017. I’m saying that:
2015 = 2000
2016 = 2001

I agree with you about the long-term trend mattering. Which is why I’m hoping for a short-term “opportunity” that’s exploitable in the long term.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun]Subliminal racism is an issue, but not the whole of the issue. If it were the whole of the issue, Obama would not have been elected twice. This election speaks to the unhappiness of the majority with their situation..[/quote]

It isn’t the whole issue. But we have an electoral college which give low-population, more traditional states too much power over our politics.

There was a lot of anger in 2012 also. Romney and his supporters were convinced that Obama was elected only because of Iraq and the anyone-but-a-Republican phenomenon.

But demographics are changing… And the American people are generally reasonable and understand merit (though we individuals all suffer from the lake wobegon disease to some extent). I’m saying this to mean about 40% of the population that’s not reasonable.

[quote=spdrun]
BTW, I’m not speaking to 2017. I’m saying that:
2015 = 2000
2016 = 2001

I agree with you about the long-term trend mattering. Which is why I’m hoping for a short-term “opportunity” that’s exploitable in the long term.[/quote]

Ok. we have to differ on this. 2016 is not the “opportunity” you’re seeking. I stuck my neck out and told a friend not to sell his house in 2016.

I’m betting you’re early. You may yet prove me wrong, but, right-now, I’m pretty confident you won’t.

[Author]

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