We are richer when house prices go down

[GoUSC]

Shiller is very pragmatic and I think he makes a lot of good points. I think the last portion of the article really points out to where we need to go:

“In major cities, we see often the service people can’t live there any more, the firemen, school teachers. This is not the way we want our society. We want affordable housing,” he said.

Shiller said it can’t be all or nothing, and that there has been a big misperception that houses will constantly appreciate.

“Some times people will try to imagine that we can have both high home prices and affordable housing. But I can tell you that doesn’t add up,” he said.

“You either have high home prices or lower home prices and lower home prices are what we want, and people shouldn’t be afraid of that,” said Shiller. “Most of us care about our children and grandchildren, and these people have to buy houses so why would we want high home prices. We want economic growth, we don’t want high home prices.”

San Diego is a prime example of this. When you have a market when someone such as myself making well into the 6 digits can’t afford a middle class home you have a real problem that cannot continue going forward.

[kewp]

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

You are making the assumption that prices are going to bottom then take off again. A ‘V’ pattern.

That is highly unlikely to happen. Whats more realistic is that prices drop and then are flat for a *long* time until all the inventory is worked off.

Look at TemeculaGuy, if he misses out on his ‘dream’ house, so what. There are three more of the same model for sale down the street! For even less now that the comps have been set.

Re:Rental markets. I think you are seeing a short-term effect. Once the renters have some money saved and prices fall even more, they are going to stop renting and buy. There will be such a glut of empty homes that rentals are going to have to fall as well to maintain equilibrium.

[kewp]

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

You are making the assumption that prices are going to bottom then take off again. A ‘V’ pattern.

That is highly unlikely to happen. Whats more realistic is that prices drop and then are flat for a *long* time until all the inventory is worked off.

Look at TemeculaGuy, if he misses out on his ‘dream’ house, so what. There are three more of the same model for sale down the street! For even less now that the comps have been set.

Re:Rental markets. I think you are seeing a short-term effect. Once the renters have some money saved and prices fall even more, they are going to stop renting and buy. There will be such a glut of empty homes that rentals are going to have to fall as well to maintain equilibrium.

[kewp]

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

You are making the assumption that prices are going to bottom then take off again. A ‘V’ pattern.

That is highly unlikely to happen. Whats more realistic is that prices drop and then are flat for a *long* time until all the inventory is worked off.

Look at TemeculaGuy, if he misses out on his ‘dream’ house, so what. There are three more of the same model for sale down the street! For even less now that the comps have been set.

Re:Rental markets. I think you are seeing a short-term effect. Once the renters have some money saved and prices fall even more, they are going to stop renting and buy. There will be such a glut of empty homes that rentals are going to have to fall as well to maintain equilibrium.

[kewp]

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

You are making the assumption that prices are going to bottom then take off again. A ‘V’ pattern.

That is highly unlikely to happen. Whats more realistic is that prices drop and then are flat for a *long* time until all the inventory is worked off.

Look at TemeculaGuy, if he misses out on his ‘dream’ house, so what. There are three more of the same model for sale down the street! For even less now that the comps have been set.

Re:Rental markets. I think you are seeing a short-term effect. Once the renters have some money saved and prices fall even more, they are going to stop renting and buy. There will be such a glut of empty homes that rentals are going to have to fall as well to maintain equilibrium.

[kewp]

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

You are making the assumption that prices are going to bottom then take off again. A ‘V’ pattern.

That is highly unlikely to happen. Whats more realistic is that prices drop and then are flat for a *long* time until all the inventory is worked off.

Look at TemeculaGuy, if he misses out on his ‘dream’ house, so what. There are three more of the same model for sale down the street! For even less now that the comps have been set.

Re:Rental markets. I think you are seeing a short-term effect. Once the renters have some money saved and prices fall even more, they are going to stop renting and buy. There will be such a glut of empty homes that rentals are going to have to fall as well to maintain equilibrium.

[EconProf]

BobS
Great point, TemeculaGuy.
A few years ago we homeowners could claim we “earned” money by simply owning a house. Consider: a $500,000 house going up 12% a year (many years the rate was higher) was making us $5000 per month (not compounded). We could justify to our spouse buying toys and vacations with that ammunition. “Honey, I’m going fishing at Cabo with the money we made last month”. Or, “Yesterday our house made $166.67 for us, let’s go out to that french restaurant.”
Now TemeculaGuy and other smart renters are “capitalizing” their future earnings, gained by waiting to buy, translating their future growing purchasing power into current wealth. Ya gotta love it.

[EconProf]

BobS
Great point, TemeculaGuy.
A few years ago we homeowners could claim we “earned” money by simply owning a house. Consider: a $500,000 house going up 12% a year (many years the rate was higher) was making us $5000 per month (not compounded). We could justify to our spouse buying toys and vacations with that ammunition. “Honey, I’m going fishing at Cabo with the money we made last month”. Or, “Yesterday our house made $166.67 for us, let’s go out to that french restaurant.”
Now TemeculaGuy and other smart renters are “capitalizing” their future earnings, gained by waiting to buy, translating their future growing purchasing power into current wealth. Ya gotta love it.

[EconProf]

BobS
Great point, TemeculaGuy.
A few years ago we homeowners could claim we “earned” money by simply owning a house. Consider: a $500,000 house going up 12% a year (many years the rate was higher) was making us $5000 per month (not compounded). We could justify to our spouse buying toys and vacations with that ammunition. “Honey, I’m going fishing at Cabo with the money we made last month”. Or, “Yesterday our house made $166.67 for us, let’s go out to that french restaurant.”
Now TemeculaGuy and other smart renters are “capitalizing” their future earnings, gained by waiting to buy, translating their future growing purchasing power into current wealth. Ya gotta love it.

[EconProf]

BobS
Great point, TemeculaGuy.
A few years ago we homeowners could claim we “earned” money by simply owning a house. Consider: a $500,000 house going up 12% a year (many years the rate was higher) was making us $5000 per month (not compounded). We could justify to our spouse buying toys and vacations with that ammunition. “Honey, I’m going fishing at Cabo with the money we made last month”. Or, “Yesterday our house made $166.67 for us, let’s go out to that french restaurant.”
Now TemeculaGuy and other smart renters are “capitalizing” their future earnings, gained by waiting to buy, translating their future growing purchasing power into current wealth. Ya gotta love it.

[EconProf]

BobS
Great point, TemeculaGuy.
A few years ago we homeowners could claim we “earned” money by simply owning a house. Consider: a $500,000 house going up 12% a year (many years the rate was higher) was making us $5000 per month (not compounded). We could justify to our spouse buying toys and vacations with that ammunition. “Honey, I’m going fishing at Cabo with the money we made last month”. Or, “Yesterday our house made $166.67 for us, let’s go out to that french restaurant.”
Now TemeculaGuy and other smart renters are “capitalizing” their future earnings, gained by waiting to buy, translating their future growing purchasing power into current wealth. Ya gotta love it.

[felix]

I’m not advocating anything. I’m pointing out that down markets turn around without every body who wants to buy getting filled. In fact, that is what creates the turnaround.

I’m also pointing out that the “losses” holders of real estate are suffering are really only affecting the few who have to sell or those who have used their home as a bank. The vast majority of home owners are doing neither.

I’m also pointing out that very few people relatively will get homes at or near the bottom ticks.

Lastly, I’m pointing out that, even right now, one can buy real estate as an investment and get a very nice return, from renters. And that real estate investment in the long or midterm is not only likely to rise but historically has always risen.

[felix]

I’m not advocating anything. I’m pointing out that down markets turn around without every body who wants to buy getting filled. In fact, that is what creates the turnaround.

I’m also pointing out that the “losses” holders of real estate are suffering are really only affecting the few who have to sell or those who have used their home as a bank. The vast majority of home owners are doing neither.

I’m also pointing out that very few people relatively will get homes at or near the bottom ticks.

Lastly, I’m pointing out that, even right now, one can buy real estate as an investment and get a very nice return, from renters. And that real estate investment in the long or midterm is not only likely to rise but historically has always risen.

[felix]

I’m not advocating anything. I’m pointing out that down markets turn around without every body who wants to buy getting filled. In fact, that is what creates the turnaround.

I’m also pointing out that the “losses” holders of real estate are suffering are really only affecting the few who have to sell or those who have used their home as a bank. The vast majority of home owners are doing neither.

I’m also pointing out that very few people relatively will get homes at or near the bottom ticks.

Lastly, I’m pointing out that, even right now, one can buy real estate as an investment and get a very nice return, from renters. And that real estate investment in the long or midterm is not only likely to rise but historically has always risen.

[felix]

I’m not advocating anything. I’m pointing out that down markets turn around without every body who wants to buy getting filled. In fact, that is what creates the turnaround.

I’m also pointing out that the “losses” holders of real estate are suffering are really only affecting the few who have to sell or those who have used their home as a bank. The vast majority of home owners are doing neither.

I’m also pointing out that very few people relatively will get homes at or near the bottom ticks.

Lastly, I’m pointing out that, even right now, one can buy real estate as an investment and get a very nice return, from renters. And that real estate investment in the long or midterm is not only likely to rise but historically has always risen.

[Author]

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