Wall Street-smoke and mirrors?

[moneymaker]

Well, I’m making money but I sure don’t understand the market. I thought when a company releases a newer version of a previously successful product there stock would go up. Alas Apple goes up and Samsung goes down, does this make sense to anybody? I made a little off AAPL and if/when it goes lower I will buy it again. Perhaps I need to go see “OZ the great and powerful” to understand what’s really going on!

[The-Shoveler]

I have come to the conclusion that I am definitely not smart enough to invest in the stock market.

If I see a big decline (30-40%) maybe I will move from the money market in the 401K and IRA back into the S&P 500.

Other than that I am done with stocks (and especially money and fund managers).

[spdrun]

You can always day-trade and mooch off of small 0.01 to 0.1 point fluctuations of a particularly volatile stock.

[dumbrenter]

Who was it that said that day traders eat like squirrels but shit like elephants? I forget who it was that said that.

[youngPro]

This is just speculation, but here is my quick take.

market is down today and it’s not clear yet whether this product is a winner for Samsung, not to mention that the market has known for sometime that this product is coming so there’s no reason to expect a big increase in stock price today, maybe after they show some sales figures.

Speaking of Apple, I think people are now expecting that Apple is bound to come out with a competing product now that Samsung has lead the way (in my opinion Apple has rarely been truly innovative). So people are taking the chance to try and get in on AAPL before the next round of “revolutionary” products are announced

That said, I do not invest in single stocks. I am purely and index/etf investor.

[moneymaker]

I’m out of the market now, other than 401K plan, that is. I’m afraid to get back in though. Every time I sell a stock it keeps going up and yet I still seem to make money every time, so I’m guessing a monkey could have made a profit just as easily as I have, which is scary!

[spdrun]

Who was it that said that day traders eat like squirrels but shit like elephants? I forget who it was that said that.

Nothing wrong with day-trading as part of a bigger strategy.

[paramount]

Are we really seeing weakness in the bond market?

That could be a bad sign, right?

[SK in CV]

[quote=paramount]Are we really seeing weakness in the bond market?

That could be a bad sign, right?[/quote]

Unlikely. The general trend for the last 8 months has been down, off about 6-7% in that time. But it’s been coincident to a 20-30% rise in equity indexes over the same time frame. There was a small short term drop at the beginning of the month, but 1/3 of that has disappeared over the last week.

If bonds, US equities and the dollar all make significant downward moves at the same time, that would be a bad sign.

American big business is booming, for all except those who do the work to make it happen.

[spdrun]

Then again:
Europe is playing up again and is in recession.
Consumer confidence is down.
Labor participation is still at a 10-year (or more) low.
Sequester cuts are starting to pinch. Quite a few people I know are being furloughed and are cutting back on spending.
Markets have gone up too far too fast. A 5-10% correction is probable given an appropriate trigger (or manipulation). Happened basically every year since 2009.

[paramount]

[quote=spdrun]Then again:
Europe is playing up again and is in recession.
Consumer confidence is down.
Labor participation is still at a 10-year (or more) low.
Sequester cuts are starting to pinch. Quite a few people I know are being furloughed and are cutting back on spending.
Markets have gone up too far too fast. A 5-10% correction is probable given an appropriate trigger (or manipulation). Happened basically every year since 2009.[/quote]

I agree, your observations coincide with mine and I feel the spring is pulled back really tight; I wonder if the bull market was timed with the 2% payroll tax increase?

On Balance Volumes have been up very sharply in the last few days, as has the Chaikin Oscillator.

[SK in CV]

[quote=paramount]
I agree, your observations coincide with mine and I feel the spring is pulled back really tight; I wonder if the bull market was timed with the 2% payroll tax increase?

[/quote]

Would that mean that the bull market the first 3 or 4 months of the previous two years were timed to coincide with the 2% payroll tax cut?

If you look hard enough, you can always find some spec of evidence that points to a grand conspiracy. But most, like this one, don’t really stand up to any scrutiny.

[paramount]

Futures look real ugly – may be a buy opportuniy.

[Author]

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