Wall Street Journal calls a “Bottom to Housing Market.”

[schizo2buyORnot]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121003604494869449.html

For what its worth . . . at least the guy is not some desperate lackey for NAR.

[patb]

Not a NAR shill but, probably paid by the NAR.

The guy raises a good point that inventory is flattening, that’s a VALID point,
but he’s failing to look into the future and see that $4 Trillion of Alt-A
defective mortgages boiling to the top.

That’s just Stupid.

i saw that op-ed when i read the WSJ this AM and thought he was just wrong.

[patb]

Not a NAR shill but, probably paid by the NAR.

The guy raises a good point that inventory is flattening, that’s a VALID point,
but he’s failing to look into the future and see that $4 Trillion of Alt-A
defective mortgages boiling to the top.

That’s just Stupid.

i saw that op-ed when i read the WSJ this AM and thought he was just wrong.

[patb]

Not a NAR shill but, probably paid by the NAR.

The guy raises a good point that inventory is flattening, that’s a VALID point,
but he’s failing to look into the future and see that $4 Trillion of Alt-A
defective mortgages boiling to the top.

That’s just Stupid.

i saw that op-ed when i read the WSJ this AM and thought he was just wrong.

[patb]

Not a NAR shill but, probably paid by the NAR.

The guy raises a good point that inventory is flattening, that’s a VALID point,
but he’s failing to look into the future and see that $4 Trillion of Alt-A
defective mortgages boiling to the top.

That’s just Stupid.

i saw that op-ed when i read the WSJ this AM and thought he was just wrong.

[patb]

Not a NAR shill but, probably paid by the NAR.

The guy raises a good point that inventory is flattening, that’s a VALID point,
but he’s failing to look into the future and see that $4 Trillion of Alt-A
defective mortgages boiling to the top.

That’s just Stupid.

i saw that op-ed when i read the WSJ this AM and thought he was just wrong.

[Daniel]

I actually think the article is good. Now, “bottom” is a very charged word, and most folks, when thinking of a “bottom”, think of a price bottom. That’s not quite how economists view things, for them the volume bottom is more important, as volume is what goes into GDP calculation, not prices.

So I agree that we’re likely to see the bottom of housing activity this year, and we’re likely to see a slight pick-up starting next year. And prices may “stabilize”, meaning that they won’t fall as abruptly anymore. This, by the way, is sort of obvious: were prices to keep dropping at the current rate, they would reach zero in a couple of years, so it’s inevitable that the decline will slow. But prices are still likely to fall, albeit more slowly, for several years, especially in the bubble areas.

[Daniel]

I actually think the article is good. Now, “bottom” is a very charged word, and most folks, when thinking of a “bottom”, think of a price bottom. That’s not quite how economists view things, for them the volume bottom is more important, as volume is what goes into GDP calculation, not prices.

So I agree that we’re likely to see the bottom of housing activity this year, and we’re likely to see a slight pick-up starting next year. And prices may “stabilize”, meaning that they won’t fall as abruptly anymore. This, by the way, is sort of obvious: were prices to keep dropping at the current rate, they would reach zero in a couple of years, so it’s inevitable that the decline will slow. But prices are still likely to fall, albeit more slowly, for several years, especially in the bubble areas.

[Daniel]

I actually think the article is good. Now, “bottom” is a very charged word, and most folks, when thinking of a “bottom”, think of a price bottom. That’s not quite how economists view things, for them the volume bottom is more important, as volume is what goes into GDP calculation, not prices.

So I agree that we’re likely to see the bottom of housing activity this year, and we’re likely to see a slight pick-up starting next year. And prices may “stabilize”, meaning that they won’t fall as abruptly anymore. This, by the way, is sort of obvious: were prices to keep dropping at the current rate, they would reach zero in a couple of years, so it’s inevitable that the decline will slow. But prices are still likely to fall, albeit more slowly, for several years, especially in the bubble areas.

[Daniel]

I actually think the article is good. Now, “bottom” is a very charged word, and most folks, when thinking of a “bottom”, think of a price bottom. That’s not quite how economists view things, for them the volume bottom is more important, as volume is what goes into GDP calculation, not prices.

So I agree that we’re likely to see the bottom of housing activity this year, and we’re likely to see a slight pick-up starting next year. And prices may “stabilize”, meaning that they won’t fall as abruptly anymore. This, by the way, is sort of obvious: were prices to keep dropping at the current rate, they would reach zero in a couple of years, so it’s inevitable that the decline will slow. But prices are still likely to fall, albeit more slowly, for several years, especially in the bubble areas.

[Daniel]

I actually think the article is good. Now, “bottom” is a very charged word, and most folks, when thinking of a “bottom”, think of a price bottom. That’s not quite how economists view things, for them the volume bottom is more important, as volume is what goes into GDP calculation, not prices.

So I agree that we’re likely to see the bottom of housing activity this year, and we’re likely to see a slight pick-up starting next year. And prices may “stabilize”, meaning that they won’t fall as abruptly anymore. This, by the way, is sort of obvious: were prices to keep dropping at the current rate, they would reach zero in a couple of years, so it’s inevitable that the decline will slow. But prices are still likely to fall, albeit more slowly, for several years, especially in the bubble areas.

[DWCAP]

This guy may not be a NAR lackey, but he most certainly is a RE bull.

“Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York”
-How much you want to bet me this guy is speculating in the “overblown” subprime morgage areas? (alittle good PR never hurt any investment)

Now he misses three things.

First, every down turn is different. This wasnt a fall caused by the economy stumbling, this was the economy stumbling cause RE fell. Stands to reason this may be alittle different. For better or worse.

Second, all real estate is local. Sure, housing AVERAGES across the country are just fine. Too bad they SUCK in CA, Fl, Arizona, Nevada, and a few bubble cities. Add in Detroit and the midwests dying economy and you have large pockets of pain even if the AVERAGE is ok. What is the average housing price in the USA now? 210k? 220k? Good luck with that in CA anywhere but maybe the IE, or the central valley. Look at those heat maps, the pain isnt evenly spread, just like the prices are not either.

Three, inflation is killing peoples wages. The earlier busts had low inflation. People were generally keeping up with the COLA they got. Now, they are not. The “average” person hasnt been keeping up for years. Who cares what housing costs if you cant eat? So even if nominal numbers make sense, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and the other 398+/- the top 5% are really screwing up this guys averages.

[DWCAP]

This guy may not be a NAR lackey, but he most certainly is a RE bull.

“Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York”
-How much you want to bet me this guy is speculating in the “overblown” subprime morgage areas? (alittle good PR never hurt any investment)

Now he misses three things.

First, every down turn is different. This wasnt a fall caused by the economy stumbling, this was the economy stumbling cause RE fell. Stands to reason this may be alittle different. For better or worse.

Second, all real estate is local. Sure, housing AVERAGES across the country are just fine. Too bad they SUCK in CA, Fl, Arizona, Nevada, and a few bubble cities. Add in Detroit and the midwests dying economy and you have large pockets of pain even if the AVERAGE is ok. What is the average housing price in the USA now? 210k? 220k? Good luck with that in CA anywhere but maybe the IE, or the central valley. Look at those heat maps, the pain isnt evenly spread, just like the prices are not either.

Three, inflation is killing peoples wages. The earlier busts had low inflation. People were generally keeping up with the COLA they got. Now, they are not. The “average” person hasnt been keeping up for years. Who cares what housing costs if you cant eat? So even if nominal numbers make sense, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and the other 398+/- the top 5% are really screwing up this guys averages.

[DWCAP]

This guy may not be a NAR lackey, but he most certainly is a RE bull.

“Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York”
-How much you want to bet me this guy is speculating in the “overblown” subprime morgage areas? (alittle good PR never hurt any investment)

Now he misses three things.

First, every down turn is different. This wasnt a fall caused by the economy stumbling, this was the economy stumbling cause RE fell. Stands to reason this may be alittle different. For better or worse.

Second, all real estate is local. Sure, housing AVERAGES across the country are just fine. Too bad they SUCK in CA, Fl, Arizona, Nevada, and a few bubble cities. Add in Detroit and the midwests dying economy and you have large pockets of pain even if the AVERAGE is ok. What is the average housing price in the USA now? 210k? 220k? Good luck with that in CA anywhere but maybe the IE, or the central valley. Look at those heat maps, the pain isnt evenly spread, just like the prices are not either.

Three, inflation is killing peoples wages. The earlier busts had low inflation. People were generally keeping up with the COLA they got. Now, they are not. The “average” person hasnt been keeping up for years. Who cares what housing costs if you cant eat? So even if nominal numbers make sense, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and the other 398+/- the top 5% are really screwing up this guys averages.

[DWCAP]

This guy may not be a NAR lackey, but he most certainly is a RE bull.

“Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York”
-How much you want to bet me this guy is speculating in the “overblown” subprime morgage areas? (alittle good PR never hurt any investment)

Now he misses three things.

First, every down turn is different. This wasnt a fall caused by the economy stumbling, this was the economy stumbling cause RE fell. Stands to reason this may be alittle different. For better or worse.

Second, all real estate is local. Sure, housing AVERAGES across the country are just fine. Too bad they SUCK in CA, Fl, Arizona, Nevada, and a few bubble cities. Add in Detroit and the midwests dying economy and you have large pockets of pain even if the AVERAGE is ok. What is the average housing price in the USA now? 210k? 220k? Good luck with that in CA anywhere but maybe the IE, or the central valley. Look at those heat maps, the pain isnt evenly spread, just like the prices are not either.

Three, inflation is killing peoples wages. The earlier busts had low inflation. People were generally keeping up with the COLA they got. Now, they are not. The “average” person hasnt been keeping up for years. Who cares what housing costs if you cant eat? So even if nominal numbers make sense, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and the other 398+/- the top 5% are really screwing up this guys averages.

[Author]

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