Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Volcker: Crisis May be Even Worse than Depression
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February 20, 2009 at 7:14 PM #351189February 20, 2009 at 10:02 PM #351244scaredyclassicParticipant
the stock market can decline a long time. it’s not an annual cumulative numeric decline, but a percentage decline. it could keep going down 10% mcuh more than 10 years, right? i dont think people will startspending money just cause some particular number of people become unemployed. im calling dow 4000 by 2011.
February 20, 2009 at 10:02 PM #350931scaredyclassicParticipantthe stock market can decline a long time. it’s not an annual cumulative numeric decline, but a percentage decline. it could keep going down 10% mcuh more than 10 years, right? i dont think people will startspending money just cause some particular number of people become unemployed. im calling dow 4000 by 2011.
February 20, 2009 at 10:02 PM #351370scaredyclassicParticipantthe stock market can decline a long time. it’s not an annual cumulative numeric decline, but a percentage decline. it could keep going down 10% mcuh more than 10 years, right? i dont think people will startspending money just cause some particular number of people become unemployed. im calling dow 4000 by 2011.
February 20, 2009 at 10:02 PM #351502scaredyclassicParticipantthe stock market can decline a long time. it’s not an annual cumulative numeric decline, but a percentage decline. it could keep going down 10% mcuh more than 10 years, right? i dont think people will startspending money just cause some particular number of people become unemployed. im calling dow 4000 by 2011.
February 20, 2009 at 10:02 PM #351403scaredyclassicParticipantthe stock market can decline a long time. it’s not an annual cumulative numeric decline, but a percentage decline. it could keep going down 10% mcuh more than 10 years, right? i dont think people will startspending money just cause some particular number of people become unemployed. im calling dow 4000 by 2011.
February 21, 2009 at 8:10 AM #351554Nor-LA-SD-guyParticipantI have said for awhile now (a few months anyway) that just like the bubble was unsustainable the current downturn is unsustainable , we are wearing out cars computers etc.. much faster than we are buying them now , also home production in socal is now far below long term new family formation rates as well ( I know I know we were overbuilding etc… but you have to remember as well that during the 90’s we were under building for a long time as well).
Just remember everyone will twist the stats in the direction they feel will help them (even if they are only fooling themselves).
Beware the snap back .
February 21, 2009 at 8:10 AM #351081Nor-LA-SD-guyParticipantI have said for awhile now (a few months anyway) that just like the bubble was unsustainable the current downturn is unsustainable , we are wearing out cars computers etc.. much faster than we are buying them now , also home production in socal is now far below long term new family formation rates as well ( I know I know we were overbuilding etc… but you have to remember as well that during the 90’s we were under building for a long time as well).
Just remember everyone will twist the stats in the direction they feel will help them (even if they are only fooling themselves).
Beware the snap back .
February 21, 2009 at 8:10 AM #351520Nor-LA-SD-guyParticipantI have said for awhile now (a few months anyway) that just like the bubble was unsustainable the current downturn is unsustainable , we are wearing out cars computers etc.. much faster than we are buying them now , also home production in socal is now far below long term new family formation rates as well ( I know I know we were overbuilding etc… but you have to remember as well that during the 90’s we were under building for a long time as well).
Just remember everyone will twist the stats in the direction they feel will help them (even if they are only fooling themselves).
Beware the snap back .
February 21, 2009 at 8:10 AM #351652Nor-LA-SD-guyParticipantI have said for awhile now (a few months anyway) that just like the bubble was unsustainable the current downturn is unsustainable , we are wearing out cars computers etc.. much faster than we are buying them now , also home production in socal is now far below long term new family formation rates as well ( I know I know we were overbuilding etc… but you have to remember as well that during the 90’s we were under building for a long time as well).
Just remember everyone will twist the stats in the direction they feel will help them (even if they are only fooling themselves).
Beware the snap back .
February 21, 2009 at 8:10 AM #351394Nor-LA-SD-guyParticipantI have said for awhile now (a few months anyway) that just like the bubble was unsustainable the current downturn is unsustainable , we are wearing out cars computers etc.. much faster than we are buying them now , also home production in socal is now far below long term new family formation rates as well ( I know I know we were overbuilding etc… but you have to remember as well that during the 90’s we were under building for a long time as well).
Just remember everyone will twist the stats in the direction they feel will help them (even if they are only fooling themselves).
Beware the snap back .
February 21, 2009 at 8:23 AM #351563jpinpbParticipantWhat would cause a snap back? There has to be a trigger. After the dotcom bust, the housing market got manipulated w/the capital gains tax break and lowered interest rates, then lowered rates again and again and then the NINA and liar loans and subprime and Alt-A and option ARMS, etc. etc.
This real estate bubble happened and it had multiple explanations.
What would be the impetus that will improve the economy? Will all the stimulus/bailouts/rescue do the trick?
After watching “House of Cards” I’m of the thought that anything the government can do at this point is slow things down from getting worse, not do what it takes to suddenly overnight improve it.
So many of our jobs have been outsourced, manufacturing, etc. In fact, real estate bubble saved us from a severe recession after 9/11 and the dotcom bust b/c it created jobs and money out of thin air.
What magical thing will be the upturn? Genuine. Collective Pigg minds. What will turn this around?
February 21, 2009 at 8:23 AM #351530jpinpbParticipantWhat would cause a snap back? There has to be a trigger. After the dotcom bust, the housing market got manipulated w/the capital gains tax break and lowered interest rates, then lowered rates again and again and then the NINA and liar loans and subprime and Alt-A and option ARMS, etc. etc.
This real estate bubble happened and it had multiple explanations.
What would be the impetus that will improve the economy? Will all the stimulus/bailouts/rescue do the trick?
After watching “House of Cards” I’m of the thought that anything the government can do at this point is slow things down from getting worse, not do what it takes to suddenly overnight improve it.
So many of our jobs have been outsourced, manufacturing, etc. In fact, real estate bubble saved us from a severe recession after 9/11 and the dotcom bust b/c it created jobs and money out of thin air.
What magical thing will be the upturn? Genuine. Collective Pigg minds. What will turn this around?
February 21, 2009 at 8:23 AM #351662jpinpbParticipantWhat would cause a snap back? There has to be a trigger. After the dotcom bust, the housing market got manipulated w/the capital gains tax break and lowered interest rates, then lowered rates again and again and then the NINA and liar loans and subprime and Alt-A and option ARMS, etc. etc.
This real estate bubble happened and it had multiple explanations.
What would be the impetus that will improve the economy? Will all the stimulus/bailouts/rescue do the trick?
After watching “House of Cards” I’m of the thought that anything the government can do at this point is slow things down from getting worse, not do what it takes to suddenly overnight improve it.
So many of our jobs have been outsourced, manufacturing, etc. In fact, real estate bubble saved us from a severe recession after 9/11 and the dotcom bust b/c it created jobs and money out of thin air.
What magical thing will be the upturn? Genuine. Collective Pigg minds. What will turn this around?
February 21, 2009 at 8:23 AM #351404jpinpbParticipantWhat would cause a snap back? There has to be a trigger. After the dotcom bust, the housing market got manipulated w/the capital gains tax break and lowered interest rates, then lowered rates again and again and then the NINA and liar loans and subprime and Alt-A and option ARMS, etc. etc.
This real estate bubble happened and it had multiple explanations.
What would be the impetus that will improve the economy? Will all the stimulus/bailouts/rescue do the trick?
After watching “House of Cards” I’m of the thought that anything the government can do at this point is slow things down from getting worse, not do what it takes to suddenly overnight improve it.
So many of our jobs have been outsourced, manufacturing, etc. In fact, real estate bubble saved us from a severe recession after 9/11 and the dotcom bust b/c it created jobs and money out of thin air.
What magical thing will be the upturn? Genuine. Collective Pigg minds. What will turn this around?
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