Upside down and 0% loans: cars

[ybc]

I’m about to buy a car…have always bought used ones paying cash. Now I’m considering buying a new Toyota highlander. Do I get a good discount if I get a one year old? What’s the best place to get a good slightly used car?

[PD]

I don’t know anything about that make of car. Like the truck JES purchased, some vehicles hold their value well. I bought my car on ebay. Be very, very careful if you take this route. Do your homework and make sure you have the car checked out. There are all kinds of scams out there (flooded cars, etc).

[Beach Rat]

YBC: check out online sites like auto trader and cars direct. Cars Direct will give you the price of a new one and auto trader will allow you to look up the prices on used ones. It should only take you a few minutes to do the research. Also make sure you are comparing cars with the same packages. It is always a good idea to go into the dealership already having obtained financing at say a credit union and having printed out a quote from a place like Cars Direct. It gives you a position from which to bargain.

PD, no worries… I can see what you mean that any time you use a large portion of money, it no longer invested. At the time I was looking to get into a new car I had the option of putting a lot down, or financing the car and investing the money. It worked for me because I was able to get substantially more of a return from my investment. I got a little lucky.
Other people have brought up the fact that you can look up a cars history. Yes this is true. The car history doesn’t take into account people like my good buddy who bought a pick up and launched it multiple times in baja within days of purchasing it and on numerous off-roading adventures since. He recently sold it and you would never know how hard this truck was rallied by looking at it or running a history check on it. Who ever wound up with that thing will wonder why the shocks just blow up one day.
Also there is a reason a few year old 911 Porsche Carerra sold for 30K. Unless the previous owner was a geriatric someone probably drove the piss out of that car. Yes the joints, trans, and engine look alright for the quick visual inspection that the mechanic does. Most of the damage done to such a car would be interior engine and trans which would only show up if you opened it up and noticed things like your rings were melted off the pistons for some unknown reason. Just curious does the 911 burn/leak oil?

[powayseller]

No oil leaks on the 911. The most important thing before buying a used car, is to go to a GOOD mechanic, someone who is not fooled by a visual inspection, who knows how to locate if a car ever had any bodywork, water damage, was driven hard, etc. Scott over at Poway Import Car Specialists is such a guy.

[carlislematthew]

I just know it deep inside, and everyday I read more and more articles which validate my positions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Don’t mean to be rude, but I believe that this article may be relevant. It’s easy to read confirming articles and say “See! I’m right!” and then read non-confirming articles and say “Flawed! Crap!”.

I myself find myself doing the same thing – it’s human nature. I have to constantly remind myself of my natural tendancy to want to believe things that confirm my pre-existing beliefs. That keeps me a little more objective, but if anyone tells you they are not subject to confirmation bias, they just don’t understand themselves enough.

[powayseller]

Hey carlisle, which of my views do you disagree with? (Other than my confidence, which seems to bug you)

[carlislematthew]

It’s not your confidence that “bugs” me and it’s amazing to me that you would think this. Confidence can sometimes border on arrogance and you remind me of those people that think they can stand up, say whatever the hell they like, offend whoever they like and then say, “hey, if you don’t like what I say, then it’s *your* problem and not mine”. Well, if a lot of people are finding your attitude annoying, then perhaps it isn’t *my* problem after all?

I happen to be in the same camp as you in many areas, from general home price decline to political and military action.

Questions: Do you find it odd that you seem to have many spats with other people? Do you see other people having the same number of issues with each other? Did you ever consider that your approach to issues and debate might turn people off wanting to debate with you in the first place?

It’s OK to have whatever views and opinions you want, but I think this forum as a whole would welcome a different approach.

All in favor… etc.

[powayseller]

Some men are threatened by confident smart women like me. The “spats” I draw are a result of my views. I do not start the attacks, although I sometimes respond to them. If you don’t like me, ignore me.

I am sure Barry Ritholtz and Rich also get this type of hate mail. Chris Thornerg admitted he got lots of hate mail from housing bulls. It goes with the territory. Bush is hated by over half of Americans. I think my track record is better on this blog 🙂

I do not judge my success by how much spat I can avoid in an internet chat room, but by how well I am loved by my family and friends, and how well I feel about myself inside. My success here is difficult to judge, as people hide behind their pseudoname and will not carry a real debate with their faces showing. If we all gave our names, I would judge my success by how many people’s finances I saved. But with the anonymity, it is hard to track this.

I want to have a good influence in the world, and help people with their finances. I am limited because my first obligation is to my family, so I live out my ambitions in this blog, instead of making the big bucks working as an economist.

Why don’t you start some of your own threads? I am sure we will love to read what you have to say.

[carlislematthew]

To imply that I have an issue with your approach because you’re a smart woman is insulting.

It’s not because you’re a woman, or because you’re smart. I formed my opinions of your approach long before I knew you were a woman. Others may have an issue – that’s not for me to say. The spats you get into are NOT a consequence of your views, they are a consequence of how you present those views. It is possible for a gun loving, god fearing, gay hater to have a civil debate with a liberal gay woman that likes to get pregnant and have abortions on the weekend, for fun. Sure, it’s harder to keep the debate civil and on track, but it is possible and we should strive to do that.

Why don’t you start some of your own threads? I am sure we will love to read what you have to say.

Sigh. I’m sure you will say that this statement was sincere and in good faith, but you know as well as I do that it was meant to say “you have nothing to say”. It was a snide remark.

I have a job and so cannot post as often as you can. I work from home and have some flexibility in my web surfing, and so will occasionally pop in to see what’s going on.

[powayseller]

I am sincere in wanting to read your threads. This way, you can have more control over where the topics go, and you aren’t as much under my whims of direction. Since you don’t like my approach, start your own. That way you can ignore me easier.

[Beach Rat]

My major problem with some of these threads that are started is that they are meant to be provocative. That’s fine on occasion. I started reading this blog because there is a lot of good data and some knowledgeable people. When you start going to the far extremes in expressing you views it doesn’t matter if you are the person saying RE will go up 10% annually for the next 10 years, or that RE will see a 70% drop from current prices, all this accomplishes is to get people to think you are a fool and you lose credibility. The way to change someone’s mind is to listen to them explain to them where you believe their lapses in reasoning are and let them re-evaluate the situation. Running around screaming the sky is falling isn’t going to do anything to further you point and it can only detract from rational discussions and ideas. One can be “confident” and still be completely wrong.

Confirmation Bias is interesting. Is that like when you took your high maintenance/priced German engineered vehicle to your mechanic and he told you with out a doubt that it was a good buy because all he saw was $$$?

[sdrealtor]

exactly

[carlislematthew]

Confirmation Bias is interesting. Is that like when you took your high maintenance/priced German engineered vehicle to your mechanic and he told you with out a doubt that it was a good buy because all he saw was $$$?

An analogy I think is a little closer is this: You want to buy a BMW, and you want it bad. You read dozens of reviews of the BMW, some of which say it’s a great car and some say it’s a bad car. However, you already believe that it’s a great car even before you start reading the reviews! Confirmation bias says that you are more likely to believe the more positive reviews than the negative reviews. In general, we like to read/hear things that confirm our pre-existing beliefs.

I’ve yet to meet someone that doesn’t fall subject to this effect, including me. However, if you can understand your own thought process, then I think you can attempt to become more objective.

Here’s another link that has a ton of followup links to related effects.

http://skepdic.com/confirmbias.html

And yes, this relates to real estate before I get flamed. 🙂 Why? Because house prices MUST DROP!! 🙂

[Anonymous]

Here is how her husband ‘knows’ he got a great deal on the 911. So much for the GOOD mechanic ;–)
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=4598587285&category=43989

[anxvariety]

Powayseller, you post more than anyone.. alot of your posts are provactive, and some people might interpret that as passive aggressiveness… how is it possible to determine that by just reading text? So who’s really guilty.. I don’t think we can point blame.. let’s be fair.

I think having people challenge you is something that comes with the territory.. you’re a high profile poster… you’ll eventually have to learn how to deal or brush off the negative side of it too or this is always going to happen.. those who can make you angry can pretty much control you.. and be careful about pulling the sexist card so easily, that’s going to piss off alot of fair people like me and also breathe air into the idea that you’re passive aggressive or have a vendetta to begin with..

Most everyone here are adults, and ended up reading and posting here because they are indepdendent thinkers.. of course its going to get hot sometimes, but no reason to act like you’re being persecuted or picked out of the crowd for no reason. The more opionions you have the more ways someone can disagree with you… deal with it.

[Author]

Posts