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October 26, 2008 at 1:08 AM #293290October 26, 2008 at 11:45 AM #293128Chris Scoreboard JohnstonParticipant
To respond to the original post, AA Alcoa is one of the five most undervalued stocks in the Dow 30 and should outperform the averages during the next rally. The other 4 are CVX, CAT, BA, HD. XOM actually would be the fifth instead of HD except that takes two stocks (CVX being the other) in the same industry which is one of my filters. So that means number 6 goes into the 5 spot. Buying these five stocks should result in a superior performance to the Dow average itself over the next 6 months, based on the valuations. Of course beating the Dow does not seem like much now with the drop we have had, but over time had you done it, this method basically doubles it on average, it works out quite well.
Track em and see if buying them tomorrow on the open and selling them May 1st on the open beats what the Dow does over the same span. Don’t bother trying to figure out how I measure this, it is proprietary and the result of years of research. It does not involve opinions or emotions, it is strictly numbers. Buying these low values has outperformed the Dow every year that I have done it. Of course there are trend measures also that need to be used to enhance this, but the post was just based on valuation so I was commenting on that directly. I am not in any of these at the moment as I am in cash, but I am looking for a trend reversal then these are the ones I will look to play if and when that occurs.
It is harder to measure valuations on Tech stocks like AAPL due to all of their ratios being much higher than the more traditional blue chips. That may be a good play, I do not know, but based on valuation in my models, it is not. It depends on your style, this is a big swinger so for short term trading can be a good one.
October 26, 2008 at 11:45 AM #293453Chris Scoreboard JohnstonParticipantTo respond to the original post, AA Alcoa is one of the five most undervalued stocks in the Dow 30 and should outperform the averages during the next rally. The other 4 are CVX, CAT, BA, HD. XOM actually would be the fifth instead of HD except that takes two stocks (CVX being the other) in the same industry which is one of my filters. So that means number 6 goes into the 5 spot. Buying these five stocks should result in a superior performance to the Dow average itself over the next 6 months, based on the valuations. Of course beating the Dow does not seem like much now with the drop we have had, but over time had you done it, this method basically doubles it on average, it works out quite well.
Track em and see if buying them tomorrow on the open and selling them May 1st on the open beats what the Dow does over the same span. Don’t bother trying to figure out how I measure this, it is proprietary and the result of years of research. It does not involve opinions or emotions, it is strictly numbers. Buying these low values has outperformed the Dow every year that I have done it. Of course there are trend measures also that need to be used to enhance this, but the post was just based on valuation so I was commenting on that directly. I am not in any of these at the moment as I am in cash, but I am looking for a trend reversal then these are the ones I will look to play if and when that occurs.
It is harder to measure valuations on Tech stocks like AAPL due to all of their ratios being much higher than the more traditional blue chips. That may be a good play, I do not know, but based on valuation in my models, it is not. It depends on your style, this is a big swinger so for short term trading can be a good one.
October 26, 2008 at 11:45 AM #293480Chris Scoreboard JohnstonParticipantTo respond to the original post, AA Alcoa is one of the five most undervalued stocks in the Dow 30 and should outperform the averages during the next rally. The other 4 are CVX, CAT, BA, HD. XOM actually would be the fifth instead of HD except that takes two stocks (CVX being the other) in the same industry which is one of my filters. So that means number 6 goes into the 5 spot. Buying these five stocks should result in a superior performance to the Dow average itself over the next 6 months, based on the valuations. Of course beating the Dow does not seem like much now with the drop we have had, but over time had you done it, this method basically doubles it on average, it works out quite well.
Track em and see if buying them tomorrow on the open and selling them May 1st on the open beats what the Dow does over the same span. Don’t bother trying to figure out how I measure this, it is proprietary and the result of years of research. It does not involve opinions or emotions, it is strictly numbers. Buying these low values has outperformed the Dow every year that I have done it. Of course there are trend measures also that need to be used to enhance this, but the post was just based on valuation so I was commenting on that directly. I am not in any of these at the moment as I am in cash, but I am looking for a trend reversal then these are the ones I will look to play if and when that occurs.
It is harder to measure valuations on Tech stocks like AAPL due to all of their ratios being much higher than the more traditional blue chips. That may be a good play, I do not know, but based on valuation in my models, it is not. It depends on your style, this is a big swinger so for short term trading can be a good one.
October 26, 2008 at 11:45 AM #293491Chris Scoreboard JohnstonParticipantTo respond to the original post, AA Alcoa is one of the five most undervalued stocks in the Dow 30 and should outperform the averages during the next rally. The other 4 are CVX, CAT, BA, HD. XOM actually would be the fifth instead of HD except that takes two stocks (CVX being the other) in the same industry which is one of my filters. So that means number 6 goes into the 5 spot. Buying these five stocks should result in a superior performance to the Dow average itself over the next 6 months, based on the valuations. Of course beating the Dow does not seem like much now with the drop we have had, but over time had you done it, this method basically doubles it on average, it works out quite well.
Track em and see if buying them tomorrow on the open and selling them May 1st on the open beats what the Dow does over the same span. Don’t bother trying to figure out how I measure this, it is proprietary and the result of years of research. It does not involve opinions or emotions, it is strictly numbers. Buying these low values has outperformed the Dow every year that I have done it. Of course there are trend measures also that need to be used to enhance this, but the post was just based on valuation so I was commenting on that directly. I am not in any of these at the moment as I am in cash, but I am looking for a trend reversal then these are the ones I will look to play if and when that occurs.
It is harder to measure valuations on Tech stocks like AAPL due to all of their ratios being much higher than the more traditional blue chips. That may be a good play, I do not know, but based on valuation in my models, it is not. It depends on your style, this is a big swinger so for short term trading can be a good one.
October 26, 2008 at 11:45 AM #293527Chris Scoreboard JohnstonParticipantTo respond to the original post, AA Alcoa is one of the five most undervalued stocks in the Dow 30 and should outperform the averages during the next rally. The other 4 are CVX, CAT, BA, HD. XOM actually would be the fifth instead of HD except that takes two stocks (CVX being the other) in the same industry which is one of my filters. So that means number 6 goes into the 5 spot. Buying these five stocks should result in a superior performance to the Dow average itself over the next 6 months, based on the valuations. Of course beating the Dow does not seem like much now with the drop we have had, but over time had you done it, this method basically doubles it on average, it works out quite well.
Track em and see if buying them tomorrow on the open and selling them May 1st on the open beats what the Dow does over the same span. Don’t bother trying to figure out how I measure this, it is proprietary and the result of years of research. It does not involve opinions or emotions, it is strictly numbers. Buying these low values has outperformed the Dow every year that I have done it. Of course there are trend measures also that need to be used to enhance this, but the post was just based on valuation so I was commenting on that directly. I am not in any of these at the moment as I am in cash, but I am looking for a trend reversal then these are the ones I will look to play if and when that occurs.
It is harder to measure valuations on Tech stocks like AAPL due to all of their ratios being much higher than the more traditional blue chips. That may be a good play, I do not know, but based on valuation in my models, it is not. It depends on your style, this is a big swinger so for short term trading can be a good one.
October 27, 2008 at 11:37 AM #293539EugeneParticipantI’m starting to think that some of the best deals may be outside the U.S. Foreign markets were punished twice by the hedge fund selloff – their share values were driven down and their currencies were hammered by repatriation of profits.
In addition to AA, I’m opening positions in:
Siemens AG (SI) – one of the largest European electronics/electrical engineering companies. Forward P/E 5.11, total debt 20% of annual revenues, and they pay dividends.
Rio Tinto (RTP) – miner, forward P/E 3.80. Somewhat troubling amount of debt, so I’ll keep this one small.
I’ll buy some Australian stocks, too, haven’t picked those yet. Maybe I’ll just get into EWA (although, it’s too heavy financials for my liking).
Generally speaking, miners are unfairly punished. Despite global recession, Chinese GDP growth is projected to be around 8% in 2009. India is growing fast, developed countries will only lose a percent or two. Basic material demand isn’t going anywhere. We need to clear the bubbliciousness of 2006-2007 and jump in.
This is all long-term, of course.
October 27, 2008 at 11:37 AM #293870EugeneParticipantI’m starting to think that some of the best deals may be outside the U.S. Foreign markets were punished twice by the hedge fund selloff – their share values were driven down and their currencies were hammered by repatriation of profits.
In addition to AA, I’m opening positions in:
Siemens AG (SI) – one of the largest European electronics/electrical engineering companies. Forward P/E 5.11, total debt 20% of annual revenues, and they pay dividends.
Rio Tinto (RTP) – miner, forward P/E 3.80. Somewhat troubling amount of debt, so I’ll keep this one small.
I’ll buy some Australian stocks, too, haven’t picked those yet. Maybe I’ll just get into EWA (although, it’s too heavy financials for my liking).
Generally speaking, miners are unfairly punished. Despite global recession, Chinese GDP growth is projected to be around 8% in 2009. India is growing fast, developed countries will only lose a percent or two. Basic material demand isn’t going anywhere. We need to clear the bubbliciousness of 2006-2007 and jump in.
This is all long-term, of course.
October 27, 2008 at 11:37 AM #293942EugeneParticipantI’m starting to think that some of the best deals may be outside the U.S. Foreign markets were punished twice by the hedge fund selloff – their share values were driven down and their currencies were hammered by repatriation of profits.
In addition to AA, I’m opening positions in:
Siemens AG (SI) – one of the largest European electronics/electrical engineering companies. Forward P/E 5.11, total debt 20% of annual revenues, and they pay dividends.
Rio Tinto (RTP) – miner, forward P/E 3.80. Somewhat troubling amount of debt, so I’ll keep this one small.
I’ll buy some Australian stocks, too, haven’t picked those yet. Maybe I’ll just get into EWA (although, it’s too heavy financials for my liking).
Generally speaking, miners are unfairly punished. Despite global recession, Chinese GDP growth is projected to be around 8% in 2009. India is growing fast, developed countries will only lose a percent or two. Basic material demand isn’t going anywhere. We need to clear the bubbliciousness of 2006-2007 and jump in.
This is all long-term, of course.
October 27, 2008 at 11:37 AM #293894EugeneParticipantI’m starting to think that some of the best deals may be outside the U.S. Foreign markets were punished twice by the hedge fund selloff – their share values were driven down and their currencies were hammered by repatriation of profits.
In addition to AA, I’m opening positions in:
Siemens AG (SI) – one of the largest European electronics/electrical engineering companies. Forward P/E 5.11, total debt 20% of annual revenues, and they pay dividends.
Rio Tinto (RTP) – miner, forward P/E 3.80. Somewhat troubling amount of debt, so I’ll keep this one small.
I’ll buy some Australian stocks, too, haven’t picked those yet. Maybe I’ll just get into EWA (although, it’s too heavy financials for my liking).
Generally speaking, miners are unfairly punished. Despite global recession, Chinese GDP growth is projected to be around 8% in 2009. India is growing fast, developed countries will only lose a percent or two. Basic material demand isn’t going anywhere. We need to clear the bubbliciousness of 2006-2007 and jump in.
This is all long-term, of course.
October 27, 2008 at 11:37 AM #293906EugeneParticipantI’m starting to think that some of the best deals may be outside the U.S. Foreign markets were punished twice by the hedge fund selloff – their share values were driven down and their currencies were hammered by repatriation of profits.
In addition to AA, I’m opening positions in:
Siemens AG (SI) – one of the largest European electronics/electrical engineering companies. Forward P/E 5.11, total debt 20% of annual revenues, and they pay dividends.
Rio Tinto (RTP) – miner, forward P/E 3.80. Somewhat troubling amount of debt, so I’ll keep this one small.
I’ll buy some Australian stocks, too, haven’t picked those yet. Maybe I’ll just get into EWA (although, it’s too heavy financials for my liking).
Generally speaking, miners are unfairly punished. Despite global recession, Chinese GDP growth is projected to be around 8% in 2009. India is growing fast, developed countries will only lose a percent or two. Basic material demand isn’t going anywhere. We need to clear the bubbliciousness of 2006-2007 and jump in.
This is all long-term, of course.
October 27, 2008 at 11:52 AM #293952peterbParticipantAUY, RTP and some other bigger, producing gold miners. History says these guys will do well in the years following a huge credit bust. These guys have been hammered in the last 6 months. And gold has a relative strength in the commodities market that is second only to the US$. Incidentally, having the good old US$ is not a bad place to be right now either. They will be getting tougher to get for average people in the next year. Banks get all they want for free. But that’s not you and me.
October 27, 2008 at 11:52 AM #293916peterbParticipantAUY, RTP and some other bigger, producing gold miners. History says these guys will do well in the years following a huge credit bust. These guys have been hammered in the last 6 months. And gold has a relative strength in the commodities market that is second only to the US$. Incidentally, having the good old US$ is not a bad place to be right now either. They will be getting tougher to get for average people in the next year. Banks get all they want for free. But that’s not you and me.
October 27, 2008 at 11:52 AM #293904peterbParticipantAUY, RTP and some other bigger, producing gold miners. History says these guys will do well in the years following a huge credit bust. These guys have been hammered in the last 6 months. And gold has a relative strength in the commodities market that is second only to the US$. Incidentally, having the good old US$ is not a bad place to be right now either. They will be getting tougher to get for average people in the next year. Banks get all they want for free. But that’s not you and me.
October 27, 2008 at 11:52 AM #293880peterbParticipantAUY, RTP and some other bigger, producing gold miners. History says these guys will do well in the years following a huge credit bust. These guys have been hammered in the last 6 months. And gold has a relative strength in the commodities market that is second only to the US$. Incidentally, having the good old US$ is not a bad place to be right now either. They will be getting tougher to get for average people in the next year. Banks get all they want for free. But that’s not you and me.
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