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[quote=AN]
Nope. We’ll just have to agree it disagree. I don’t think this is that big of a problem and will have it resolved sooner rather than later. I’m pretty sure the majority of Californian will rather pay more to maintain or improve their quality of life instead of do nothing and reduce their quality of life. So the pressure from the public will be, find more sources of water even if it’ll cost more. The time for cheap water is over but I firmly believe we’ll have this water problem solved.
[/quote]because you stated the personal “belief” the drought is not a big problem AND think solution(s) will be implemented (sooner rather than later) AND given this website’s slogan is in god we trust, everyone else bring data, what came to mind is a variation of pascal’s wager
[quote=wikipedia.org]
Pascal argues that a rational person should live as though God exists and seek to believe in God. If God does not actually exist, such a person will have only a finite loss (some pleasures, luxury, etc.), whereas they stand to receive infinite gains (as represented by eternity in Heaven) and avoid infinite losses (eternity in Hell).https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_Wager
[/quote]if everyone acted and invested some time, effort and money to prepare and live a “distributive resilience lifestyle” where natural resources like water would be used as efficiently as possible because we acknowledged long term drought conditions was the norm (instead of the exception), basically the economy would be more sustainable (than it is now) and work better for rich and poor alike.
[quote=mercurynews.com]
“How will we know when the drought is over?”The answer, water experts say, is more complicated than you’d think.
http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_29364616/california-drought-how-will-we-know-when-its
[/quote]also thought,… “pretty sure the majority of Californian will rather pay more to maintain or improve their quality of life” HOW??? we’re mostly tapped out!
[quote=nbcnews.com]
“Two-Thirds of U.S. Would Struggle to Cover $1,000 Crisis: Poll”Two-thirds of Americans would have difficulty coming up with the money to cover a $1,000 emergency, according to a poll released Thursday, a signal that despite years of recovery from the Great Recession, Americans’ financial conditions remains precarious as ever.
[quote=sandiegouniontribune.com]
SD income rises, but high poverty persistsThe median household income in 2014 was $66,192, up from $62,081 the previous year (in 2014 dollars). The new income figure surpasses that of 2007 in real dollars but still lags when inflation is factored in.
The dogged poverty levels amid rising household incomes is a paradox caused by people who already have jobs earning bigger paychecks, and new better paying jobs being filled by people who are not living in poverty.
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/sep/17/census-income-poverty-recession-healthcare/
[/quote]SUMMARY of TRENDS (key to understanding the logic of water shortage)
“precipitation” ~ DOWN
“groundwater (reserves)” ~ DOWN
“water use” ~ UP
“population” ~ UP
“infrastructure” ~ DOWN
“economy/wages (for majority)” ~ DOWN
“political bullshit” ~ UPCONCLUSION
[seems inevitable] a goal [of drought “solutions” being implemented sooner rather than later] without a plan is just a wish [that will end up being a living nightmare]
FYI the “Fermi Paradox” is an astrophysics-economics model describing challenges to finding extraterrestrial civilizations in the observable universe
basically in order to develop advanced technology, a civilization (people) must manage stuff like their natural resources wisely in order to survive the long run
this concept is very relevant to the matter @ hand because the original people/society on easter island did not manage their natural resources very wisely, so they died off long before they were able to develop advance technology (which is a lesson that sadly is not well appreciated by 99.999% of the general population)
deforestation/rats/etc. (not drought mis-management) were the contributing factors of the extinction of the original people/society on easter island,
http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/rethinking-the-fall-of-easter-island
but no matter the overall idea of a “great filter” posing a danger which can kill off a civilization (before it can develop advanced technology) is the same…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter
PS for an example of a drought that most likely helped kill off a society (in our neck of the woods), all you have to do is visit Mesa Verde National Park
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/cliihis1000.html
so still feeling confident that the drought (water problem) isn’t that big of a problem and can be solved in time to avert TSHTF?
[quote=phaster][quote=AN]
Nope. We’ll just have to agree it disagree. I don’t think this is that big of a problem and will have it resolved sooner rather than later. I’m pretty sure the majority of Californian will rather pay more to maintain or improve their quality of life instead of do nothing and reduce their quality of life. So the pressure from the public will be, find more sources of water even if it’ll cost more. The time for cheap water is over but I firmly believe we’ll have this water problem solved.
[/quote]because you stated the personal “belief” the drought is not a big problem AND think solution(s) will be implemented (sooner rather than later) AND given this website’s slogan is in god we trust, everyone else bring data, what came to mind is a variation of pascal’s wager
[quote=wikipedia.org]
Pascal argues that a rational person should live as though God exists and seek to believe in God. If God does not actually exist, such a person will have only a finite loss (some pleasures, luxury, etc.), whereas they stand to receive infinite gains (as represented by eternity in Heaven) and avoid infinite losses (eternity in Hell).https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_Wager
[/quote]if everyone acted and invested some time, effort and money to prepare and live a “distributive resilience lifestyle” where natural resources like water would be used as efficiently as possible because we acknowledged long term drought conditions was the norm (instead of the exception), basically the economy would be more sustainable (than it is now) and work better for rich and poor alike.
[quote=mercurynews.com]
“How will we know when the drought is over?”The answer, water experts say, is more complicated than you’d think.
http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_29364616/california-drought-how-will-we-know-when-its
[/quote]also thought,… “pretty sure the majority of Californian will rather pay more to maintain or improve their quality of life” HOW??? we’re mostly tapped out!
[quote=nbcnews.com]
“Two-Thirds of U.S. Would Struggle to Cover $1,000 Crisis: Poll”Two-thirds of Americans would have difficulty coming up with the money to cover a $1,000 emergency, according to a poll released Thursday, a signal that despite years of recovery from the Great Recession, Americans’ financial conditions remains precarious as ever.
[quote=sandiegouniontribune.com]
SD income rises, but high poverty persistsThe median household income in 2014 was $66,192, up from $62,081 the previous year (in 2014 dollars). The new income figure surpasses that of 2007 in real dollars but still lags when inflation is factored in.
The dogged poverty levels amid rising household incomes is a paradox caused by people who already have jobs earning bigger paychecks, and new better paying jobs being filled by people who are not living in poverty.
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/sep/17/census-income-poverty-recession-healthcare/
[/quote]SUMMARY of TRENDS (key to understanding the logic of water shortage)
“precipitation” ~ DOWN
“groundwater (reserves)” ~ DOWN
“water use” ~ UP
“population” ~ UP
“infrastructure” ~ DOWN
“economy/wages (for majority)” ~ DOWN
“political bullshit” ~ UPCONCLUSION
[seems inevitable] a goal [of drought “solutions” being implemented sooner rather than later] without a plan is just a wish [that will end up being a living nightmare]
FYI the “Fermi Paradox” is an astrophysics-economics model describing challenges to finding extraterrestrial civilizations in the observable universe
basically in order to develop advanced technology, a civilization (people) must manage stuff like their natural resources wisely in order to survive the long run
this concept is very relevant to the matter @ hand because the original people/society on easter island did not manage their natural resources very wisely, so they died off long before they were able to develop advance technology (which is a lesson that sadly is not well appreciated by 99.999% of the general population)
deforestation/rats/etc. (not drought mis-management) were the contributing factors of the extinction of the original people/society on easter island,
http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/rethinking-the-fall-of-easter-island
but no matter the overall idea of a “great filter” posing a danger which can kill off a civilization (before it can develop advanced technology) is the same…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter
PS for an example of a drought that most likely helped kill off a society (in our neck of the woods), all you have to do is visit Mesa Verde National Park
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/cliihis1000.html
so still feeling confident that the drought (water problem) isn’t that big of a problem and can be solved in time to avert TSHTF?[/quote]
financially, water would be the number one priority, even over food, if the TSHTF. we really don’t need much to survive. I only take 2 showers a,week and would be willing to cut down. I basically wipe down with a damp rag. I’d cut down on all discretionary spending to get a few gallons for home use.
it wouldn’t be the end of the society. it’d be like camping.
[quote=usatoday.com]
Donald Trump tells Californians there is no drought
California suffered one of its driest years in 2015. And last year the state hit its driest four-year period on record.
But Donald Trump isn’t sold. The presumptive GOP nominee told supporters in Fresno, Calif., on Friday night that no such dry spell exists.
Trump said state officials were simply denying water to Central Valley farmers to prioritize the Delta smelt, a native California fish nearing extinction — or as Trump called it, “a certain kind of three-inch fish.”
http://www.sfgate.com/news/crime/article/Trump-vows-to-solve-California-s-water-crisis-7949775.php
http://gawker.com/water-scientist-donald-trump-on-how-to-end-californias-1779228841
[/quote]
[quote=alternet.org]
‘Idiocracy’ Realized: How Our Current Situation Is Worse Than the Film Predicted
Donald Trump’s political ascendancy has made Idiocracy seem like prophecy. (Or, per a viral tweet by the film’s screenwriter, a “documentary.”) As satire, however, Idiocracy is uneven, precisely because recent events have already exceeded its most trenchant bits of lunacy. In the fictional Idiocracy future, Congress is full of idiots who do nothing but yell, “You’re a dick!” at the president. But those antics pale in comparison to stunts pulled by presumptive Republican presidential nominee Trump, a billionaire real-estate developer and reality TV show star whose foreign policy proposals include telling China, Listen, you motherfuckers, we’re going to tax you 25 percent!
http://www.alternet.org/media/corporate-trump-nation-made-america-worse-idiocracy
[/quote]translate.google.com: (Donald Trump = Idiocracy)
[quote=AN]
Whether you think the politician is capable of fixing the problem or not is irrelevant, since they have a monopoly. for our sake, I hope they get their act together and fix the problem. If we can have Tesla, SpaceX, Google, Apple, etc in CA, I’m pretty sure we can fix the water problem.
[/quote]as I said… a “solution” is only possible when the problem is fully understood and there is no bias toward some preconceived outcome!! FURTHERMORE any “solution” to a real world problem must take into account the limited resources of: time, money, and labor
therefore it is very relevant to acknowledge/address the corruption/mis-management w/ in the political system @ all levels of government because it in turn causes corruption/mis-management w/ in the economy!
[quote=60 MINUTES]
“Dialing for Dollars” aired on April 24, 2016Members of Congress raised more than a billion dollars for their 2014 election. And they never stop.
Nearly every day, they spend hours on the phone asking supporters and even total strangers for campaign donations — hours spent away from the jobs they were elected to do.
…And your job, new member of Congress, is to raise $18,000 a day. Your first responsibility is to make sure you hit $18,000 a day.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-are-members-of-congress-becoming-telemarketers/
[/quote][quote=phaster][quote=XBoxBoy][quote=Parabolica]The problem with defined contributions plans as I see it is that the vast majority of working people lack the financial sophistication required to invest for their retirement. [/quote]
I have no idea who is right in this argument or what is fair, but I’d like to point out another issue that worries me about defined benefit vs 401k. That is that 401ks are generally optional, while defined benefit are not. I have well educated, professional friends working in high tech careers, in their late 50s who have never put any money into a 401 or any retirement plan (other than social security). Compare that to govt. workers or teachers who have no choice but to contribute. Not only are people not savvy enough to manage the financial waters, they aren’t savvy enough to figure out they need to save to have a retirement fund. Not sure how to fix that, but it seems to me to be a big issue lurking out there.[/quote]
there is indeed a BIG ISSUE LURKING
[modesty/sarcasm ON]
and FWIW IMHO I’m RIGHT and everyone ELSE is to blame for causing an economic mess…
[modesty/sarcasm OFF]
As it stands politicians/lawyers/public-employees-union-members think it would be fair for the taxpayers to make them whole (after all they are the one’s who did all the hard work of implementing the policies, writing the contracts and were in charge of the day in and day out operation of various pension fund accounts…)
“they” (politicians/lawyers/public-employees) using circular logic would argue, thus it is written (and ignoring “crucial evidence”) therefore we find its the LAW
this POV isn’t much different than the approach taken by leadership in the catholic church back in the day when the pope made a law that which said, the earth was at the center of the universe (and ignored all the math and science)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/horizon/sept98/galileo.htm
WRT the operation of the local pension fund – notice in press releases – on the side that supports the politicians/lawyers/public-employees position, stories ALL BUT IGNORE THE MATH because its an inconvenient truth
AND instead hide behind the convenient fiction that its possible to have a sustainable DB program for honest hard working muni “union” employees who will suffer otherwise
in the december 2015 (back pages news-paper story) that started me questioning the wisdom of existing fund management (yet again), the actuaries long ago calculated out that in order for the LOCAL pension portfolio to work, the investment vehicles (bonds, stocks, etc.) basically had to grow 8% over the long haul!!!
BUT as we know from year to year the market will vary…
so some years the total return of the portfolio will be much GREATER than the actuaries design target of 8%,… and some years the total return of the portfolio will be much LOWER than the the actuaries design target of 8%,… BUT OVERALL the idea was that pension portfolio was designed to AVERAGE OUT to 8%
its impossible to say exact DEBT figures w/out more data BUT think of the problem as being, for the past three decades the portfolio operators (i.e. politicians/lawyers/public-employees) said hey the portfolio is doing great and give themselves a pension bonus payment of say anything greater than the actuaries target of 8% (thinking this “EXTRA” is not needed)
for example, back in the 1980’s and 1990’s when the market was really booming (and the portfolio produced returns on average much greater than 8%)
THE HISTORICAL RATE OF RETURN FOR THE STOCK MARKET SINCE 1900
…
during the 1980s the market returned on average 17.57%
during the 1990s the market returned on average 18.17%
…the portfolio operators (i.e. politicians/lawyers/public-employees) in the 1980’s said hey since we averaged 17.57% in the market, so we have an EXTRA of 9.57% to give our selves because of a simple formula we included in a contract (average market return – actuaries design target = EXTRA) or (17.57%-8% =9.57%)
the portfolio operators (i.e. politicians/lawyers/public-employees) in the 1990’s said hey since we averaged 18.17%, we have an EXTRA of 10.17% because (18.17%-8% =10.17.%)
a misunderstanding of how “averages” work explains why the portfolio is BILLIONS in DEBT
City pensioners get ’13th check’ bonus
More than $6.1 million has been distributed to retired San Diego city employees in the form of a “13th check” — beyond their usual 12 monthly payments — making this year’s holiday bonus the largest such payout in the history of the three-decade-old practice.
But it’s become a source of conflict as the city’s pension system faces a $2 billion shortfall in promised payments, which remains a taxpayer burden and has led to budget crises in the past at City Hall.
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/dec/18/13th-check/
what the $hit for brains managers of the San Diego pension portfolio did, was in reality take/pocketed for themselves the “excess” profits back in boom decades of the 80’s and 90’s that were originally designed to be kept w/in the account so that the portfolio averaged out to 8% from the 1980’s to the present day…
Handbook of Frauds, Scams, and Swindles: Failures of Ethics in Leadership (edited by Serge Matulich, David M. Currie)
Though SDCERS investments were earning well above the 8 percent rate of return estimated by the system actuaries, under normal conditions investments surpluses are required to make up for below-average returns in other years to achieve the average rate of return. Therefore, unless the actuaries’ estimates are grossly incorrect, in the long run true “surplus earnings” are impossible. The use of surplus earnings for the purposes other than maintaining the pension system, such as to expand existing benefits should be viewed as a loan from the system THAT WILL REQUIRE REPAYMENT IN THE FUTURE.
page 286
the economic problem NOW (and into the foreseeable future) is further compounded with financial instruments like “swaps” (which really supercharges the amount of money that somehow needs to be accounted for w/in the system)
http://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy1504.pdf
and IMHO makes an economic disaster all but unavoidable (all because politicians/lawyers in a position of power who were suppose to over see pension portfolio operations, never took a step back to look at the big picture and apply basic middle school math concepts WRT the financial instruments they were in charge of)!!
[/quote]BOTTOM LINE debt is akin to added weight on the sword of Damocles, which has been said to overhang the economy
http://www.npr.org/2011/08/19/139799434/sword-of-damocles-reference-sometimes-misused
basically the state of the economy (i.e. credit markets/finance system) determines if stuff like drought related mitigation infrastructure can be built/operated (like water pipelines, reservoirs, desalination plants, sewage treatment, etc.)
furthermore a distinction must be made,… the government cannot just declare corporate bankruptcy (like trump has done four times to protect his personal personal fortune from idiotic management decisions) and expect to keep the system going (i.e. over-leveraged casino and hotel properties in Atlantic City are an UNNECESSARY LUXURY for society to function, a utility system that provides/treats water is a NECESSITY for society to exist!)
BTW since you mentioned it did ya ever stop and think what “Tesla, SpaceX, Google, Apple, etc in CA” have in common?
HINT the founders of all these successful “tech” companies were into and understand the importants of math/science, they are not politicians/lawyers who basically contribute nothing but bullshit and corruption!
[quote=FlyerInHi]The contingency links you provided are for temporary disaster only
You can’t live in your mansion in LA for decades in case of doom. There will be marauders with guns everywhere and supplies will not get through.
[/quote][modesty/sarcasm ON]
links were out line ideas, since nothing in the “local” MLS looked as remotely cool as stuff I’ve in the action/spy movies OR combined the luxury I am worthy of…
and a (website) for a “trump” branded luxury zombie apocalypse condo shelter w/ 24/7 concierge service, was nowhere to be found…
[modesty/sarcasm OFF]
FYI its the end of the “El Niño” event
and the scorecard indicates a “temporary reprieve” from the drought here in california…
BUT think it best if things were put in context…
[quote=desertsun.com]
USGS estimates vast amounts of water used in CaliforniaHow much water does California use each year?
It’s a complicated question, but the U.S. Geological Survey now has an answer for 2010: 42 million acre-feet per year, or about 38 billion gallons per day.
That includes water pumped from wells plus all of the water taken from sources such as rivers, canals and reservoirs.
To put that vast number in perspective: California has been using the equivalent of the full capacity of Lake Shasta, the state’s largest reservoir, every 40 days.
In one newly published study in the journal Environmental Research Letters, University of California researchers found that the state has handed out approximately five times more water rights than the total amount of freshwater runoff in an average year.
perhaps in the relentless pursuit of creating an agribusiness friendly environment here in CA, seems we presently have a government w/ a 5:1 “over promised” ratio of assigned water rights to average annual rain fall runoff,… which kinda brings to mind an enron style accounting system or fabulous returns that might be promised “suckers” in a “Ponzi scheme” (before the inevitable fall)
[quote=breitbart.com]
you know some of the best deals
are the deals you don’t do
you understand that
and we’re going to solve your water problem
you have a water problem that is so insane
it is so ridiculous
where they are taking the water
and shoving it out to sea…blah, blah, blah
no one understands it
and I’ve heard this from other friends of mine in california…blah, blah, blah
a certain kind of three-inch fish
…blah, blah, blah
http://gawker.com/water-scientist-donald-trump-on-how-to-end-californias-1779228841
up to a point have to agree w/ donald
YES we have a water problem that is so insane and so ridiculous…
BUT the problem isn’t “a certain kind of three-inch fish,” its politicians/lawyers who time and time again demonstrate similar brain power to “a certain kind of three-inch fish” in that they seem to have no concept of math and cause problems in the first place by doing stupid shit that only exacerbates things during periods of natural drought,… like NOT REALIZING that allocating 370 million acre-feet of water rights BUT HAVING PUBLISHED DATA that states in an average year there is only about 70 million acre-feet of freshwater runoff, IS A BASIC MATH PROBLEM
http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article2607102.html
i’d guess the statement “DEMAND (370 million acre-feet of water) > SUPPLY (70 million acre-feet of freshwater runoff)” isn’t the simple straightforward explanation donald or his friends want to acknowledge as reality!
how much ya wanna bet *cough* there was some old boys club networking and political champaign donations (i.e. agribusiness lobbyists)
unfortunately the situation is made much, much, much worst because as there is a “swaps” danger WRT the (mis)management of the local public pension portfolio, seems there is a parallel trend toward creating a “World Water Market and Water Derivatives”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ah81wkEBT4
FWIW IMHO the only way to avoid a dystopian future (for the masses WRT “water”), is hope benevolent scientists develop new technology to lower the cost of producing deSal water, and that the population at large agree to some kind of moral guidelines WRT caring for the global environment (i.e. Laudato Si’)
as it stands current deSal is costly because the filters are “thick” and require high pressure (i.e. HIGH amounts of energy) to force fluid through the membrane
if a new single atom “thin” filter can be developed on a commercial scale, then all that will be needed is low pressure (i.e. LOW energy requirements) to force fluid through the “thin” membrane
http://phys.org/news/2016-03-revolutionary-graphene-filter-crisis.html
another alternative deSal setup that could be viable in arid regions would be concentrated solar, which was shown being tested in a news segment awhile back (TechKnow: The New Dust Bowl)
http://america.aljazeera.com/watch/shows/techknow/multimedia/2015/8/techknow-the-dust-bowl.html
have to go now and (as you suggested) look for a sustainable family farm where I can live in peace, off the grid *far* away from the series of intertubes that delivers information (like Donald Trump tells Californians there is no drought) around the world via computer
http://www.christiesrealestate.com/eng/lifestyles/farm_ranch
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