Off topic “coronavirus”

[The-Shoveler]

I have heard other experts say The most likely outcome is that it mutates into a milder version and may have already done so in the USA.

[The-Shoveler]

Cure worse than disease?

World Food experts say millions will die due starvation and instability .

Prepare for biblical famines (in poorer countries)

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062272

[svelte]

[quote=scaredyclassic]
To a simpler place in time
(Whenever he takes that ride) oh yes he is
(Guess who’s gonna be right by his side)
[/quote]

I got to go I got to go I got to go

[Coronita]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html

Told ya! Mentioned it early on in this thread. My ex-coworkers that went back and forth between here and China for work already sick with flu like symptoms as early as January, but tested negative for flu and had the flu shot, and doctors couldn’t figure out what it was. The entire office also came down with the same thing 1 week later. Covid was here a lot earlier, it’s just people didn’t know what they got and thought it was some weird form of flu.

[FlyerInHi]

Were the coworkers eventually tested for Covid?

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html

Told ya! Mentioned it early on in this thread. My ex-coworkers that went back and forth between here and China for work already sick with flu like symptoms as early as January, but tested negative for flu and had the flu shot, and doctors couldn’t figure out what it was. The entire office also came down with the same thing 1 week later. Covid was here a lot earlier, it’s just people didn’t know what they got and thought it was some weird form of flu.[/quote]
It is interesting California is relatively quiet compared to NY if Covid was here since Jan

[Coronita]

[quote=legallyblue][quote=Coronita]https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html

Told ya! Mentioned it early on in this thread. My ex-coworkers that went back and forth between here and China for work already sick with flu like symptoms as early as January, but tested negative for flu and had the flu shot, and doctors couldn’t figure out what it was. The entire office also came down with the same thing 1 week later. Covid was here a lot earlier, it’s just people didn’t know what they got and thought it was some weird form of flu.[/quote]
It is interesting California is relatively quiet compared to NY if Covid was here since Jan[/quote]

population density. I think if you break down the infection in NY, majority is in NYC. Also, heavy reliance on public transportation in NYC, unlike in CA.

Beautiful day today in SD BTW. Gonna go out for a run…

[zk]

New York state has about 269,000 confirmed coronavirus infections.

An antibody study indicates that probably 13.9% of the state’s residence have been infected with the coronavirus. That would be 19.45m x .139 = 2.7m actual infections.

About 21k people have died in the state from Covid-19.

21k/2.7m = 0.77% death rate. Which would make it more than 7 times deadlier than the flu.

Coronavirus is also much more contagious than the flu, with an R0 of at least 2.2 and now estimated to be possibly as high as 5.7 vs 1.3 for the flu (see CDC release below).

Coronavirus is at least 7 times deadlier and wildly more contagious than the flu.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

[outtamojo]

No matter the death rate for covid19 it presents a whole other survival challenge in ADDITION to the flu varieties we already have. I always get the impression we forget that whenever we downplay Cov2.

[spdrun]

I’d be careful with the NY data.

Let’s look at NYC:
21% of people tested positive. That’s about 1.75 million.

The test they used is (supposedly) an IgG-only test, where detectable antibodies may take up to four weeks to develop. We could be looking at data from the middle of March — spread didn’t stop when restaurants and some stores closed, just slowed down to an R0 of about 0.8.

We could be looking at exposure rates of close to 50% at this stage. Death rates could range from 0.8% to 0.3% assuming 15000 deaths.

NY state is also very split between the NYC area – 21% exposure in the city, about 15% in the burbs, and upstate, where it’s more like 3 to 4%.

As far as the disparity between basic R0 and household attack rate, is it possible that some people have either innate (T-cell) immunity to this thing, were exposed to other coronaviruses in the past that created antibodies that can also attack SARS CoV2, or they could have a strong enough innate response to clear the virus?

[FlyerInHi]

Thanks for the summaries. I don’t have interest to follow all the data.

Any chance of a vaccine this year?

[ocrenter]

[quote=zk]New York state has about 269,000 confirmed coronavirus infections.

An antibody study indicates that probably 13.9% of the state’s residence have been infected with the coronavirus. That would be 19.45m x .139 = 2.7m actual infections.

About 21k people have died in the state from Covid-19.

21k/2.7m = 0.77% death rate. Which would make it more than 7 times deadlier than the flu.

Coronavirus is also much more contagious than the flu, with an R0 of at least 2.2 and now estimated to be possibly as high as 5.7 vs 1.3 for the flu (see CDC release below).

Coronavirus is at least 7 times deadlier and wildly more contagious than the flu.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article%5B/quote%5D

That death rate is perfectly in line with South Korea’s numbers. Makes sense.

[FlyerInHi]

Trump administration ended pandemic early-warning program to detect coronaviruses

Two months before the novel coronavirus is thought to have begun its deadly advance in Wuhan, China, the Trump administration ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-02/coronavirus-trump-pandemic-program-viruses-detection

[spdrun]

^^^

Because injecting bleach is soooo much cheaper and more effective.

[zk]

moved to another thread

[Author]

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