Off topic “coronavirus”

[svelte]

[quote=flu]If history is going to be a guide for how the Coronavirus can play out , skip the normal social and cyclical economic models that people were using to predict a recession. This pandemic event is nothing like we’ve seen in modern times.

A closer model would be the one time pandemic event in 1918 also known as the Spanish Flu. That seems to be a more appropriate model of how things can play out. We haven’t had any other major pandemic event since then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

The majority of the death from that was surprise surprise from a cytokine storm.

The killer wasn’t the first wave of that flu. The killer was the second wave that occurred in August that was a deadlier mutation of the first that affected those that weren’t infected by the first wave had not built immunity to the second mutated flu. Which begs the question , if this Coronavirus is bad now, what’s a mutated version going to look like.[/quote]

You went down the same thought process I did flu in that the 1918 epidemic is the closest equivalent. I have actually followed that event quite a bit because my grandmother’s brother died from the 1918 strain while living in Tulsa, Oklahoma. He was a divorced 38 year old male with one child. I have inherited some of his belongings and they are fascinating.

In any case, no telling whether there will be a mutated version, and we certainly know a helluva lot more about medicine 100 years later. But I’m with you that this isn’t going to be a one month thing. It will likely affect us all into and possibly through the summer.

We had a discussion about this topic around the kitchen island last night and we all agreed with that time frame.

[FlyerInHi]

Immediately, we need to be testing and preventing contagion.
I predict this year will be the year of the sanitizer moms. As school close and as supplies run short, the sanitizer moms will be up in arms. They will be out in force, in social media and perhaps on the streets, with their real and virtual pitchforks.

With so few coronavirus tests, America has been flying blind into a storm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/with-so-few-coronavirus-tests-america-has-been-flying-blind-into-a-storm/2020/03/12/71e32206-6487-11ea-845d-e35b0234b136_story.html

[Coronita]

San Diego Unified just suspended classes starting monday..

Come on San Dieguito, follow through.

[Coronita]

[quote=svelte][quote=flu]If history is going to be a guide for how the Coronavirus can play out , skip the normal social and cyclical economic models that people were using to predict a recession. This pandemic event is nothing like we’ve seen in modern times.

A closer model would be the one time pandemic event in 1918 also known as the Spanish Flu. That seems to be a more appropriate model of how things can play out. We haven’t had any other major pandemic event since then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

The majority of the death from that was surprise surprise from a cytokine storm.

The killer wasn’t the first wave of that flu. The killer was the second wave that occurred in August that was a deadlier mutation of the first that affected those that weren’t infected by the first wave had not built immunity to the second mutated flu. Which begs the question , if this Coronavirus is bad now, what’s a mutated version going to look like.[/quote]

You went down the same thought process I did flu in that the 1918 epidemic is the closest equivalent. I have actually followed that event quite a bit because my grandmother’s brother died from the 1918 strain while living in Tulsa, Oklahoma. He was a divorced 38 year old male with one child. I have inherited some of his belongings and they are fascinating.

In any case, no telling whether there will be a mutated version, and we certainly know a helluva lot more about medicine 100 years later. But I’m with you that this isn’t going to be a one month thing. It will likely affect us all into and possibly through the summer.

We had a discussion about this topic around the kitchen island last night and we all agreed with that time frame.[/quote]

So far, all the data seems to suggest that kids are spared from this virus. Unlike normal flu, where the hardest hit are usually the elderly and the youngest in a U shape, the left side of the U is mysteriously absent this time. Still, they can be carriers.

I don’t have a problem with people who are ocd about hygiene. Better than the slobs that use their cell phones in the bathroom and leave without washing their hands. Never borrow someone else’s cell phone. Gross.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=ltsdd]….So, interesting how many of us were ridiculing China’s response, or lack thereof, to the coronavirus. But here we are almost two months later the wealthiest, most powerful nation in the entire world doesn’t seem to have a fvcking clue on how to respond to the crisis. We were probably right to suspect China under-reporting their numbers, but that implied they at least knew how many of were infected. But the U.S. is even worse since we don’t know how many people are infected. Pathetic how little testing has been administered:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html

https://www.statista.com/chart/21108/covid-19-tests-performed-per-million-of-the-population/
[/quote]
Your posts and Myriad’s post are usually pretty fair.
In hindsight, China’s response has been pretty wonderful after they got their act together.
It’s the opposite in the USA, we had time and we wasted it and now that the virus is here we are failing the response in real time — the incompetence is so apparent.

I will collect rent from my Chinese tenant from Shenyan on the 15th. They’re so nice they always pay me 3 months in advance. They chose to live in USA and they love it here waiting to buy a house. But they are pretty fair minded and they tell me funny stories of their first impressions of usa — things they never knew about the US until they arrived. So true. Can’t wait to hear their take on the coronavirus.

[Coronita]

San Diego and San Dieguito Unified just announced they are closing school starting monday. Yeah, early spring break.

With unprecedented closures even before major outbreak infections, it sure seems people are taking this pretty seriously.

[The-Shoveler]

IMO our response has been fairly good (and maybe a little too drastic, time will tell).

We are doing much better than Europe so far IMO.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO our response has been fairly good (and maybe a little too drastic, time will tell).

We are doing much better than Europe so far IMO.[/quote]

Erring on the side of drastic is probably ok given the circumstances.

Kind of weird to be working from home. I need to order a new machine gonna get a 12 core Ryzen 3900x

[spdrun]

Our response has been drastic because we didn’t respond soon enough in the first place. News of this broke around mid-January … we should have reduced flights from affected areas to drive up the price and discourage non-essential travel, required people coming from affected areas to self-quarantine for 14 days, used IR cameras to check for fever at customs checkpoints, ramped up production of testing kits. Sent the viral RNA sequence to every private and university lab…

We’ve been so busy fighting the last wars (illegal immigration and terrorism) that we’ve gutted our response to the next war (epidemic).

[FlyerInHi]

Drastic does not mean deliberate, coordinated and effective.

Flu, if you look back at the 1918 flu, there was virtually no federal coordination. State and local governments did what they could with varying degrees of effectiveness. We may get the same this time around.

[Hobie]

Closing schools and cancelling school sports, performances, and other activities in light of no students currently infected seems a bit overkill. IMHO

But the schools have to ‘do something’ in response to the riled up parents caused by the media.

The terms epidemic and pandemic are scary words that are being thrown around by the press to inflame people who don’t know the words exact meaning.

Definitions: An outbreak is a sudden rise in cases of a disease in a particular place. An epidemic is a large outbreak. A pandemic means a global epidemic.

It doesn’t specifically speak to the deadliness of a particular disease, just the rate of spread in a population.

From the Calif Dept of Education:
“California law authorizes the State Superintendent of Public Instruction (SSPI) to provide credit for instructional time in the case of a schoolwide closure based on a declaration of an epidemic made by a local public health officer. However, closing a school simply as a precaution may result in a LEA not qualifying for a J-13A waiver and a penalty for failure to offer the statutorily required instructional days and/or minutes.”

https://www.cde.ca.gov/nr/el/le/yr20ltr0305att.asp

So with funds secured, school districts can now ‘do something’, which is close for a couple of weeks.

[svelte]

[quote=spdrun]
We’ve been so busy fighting the last wars (illegal immigration and terrorism) that we’ve gutted our response to the next war (epidemic).[/quote]

A lot of truth to that.

[svelte]

[quote=FlyerInHi] But they are pretty fair minded and they tell me funny stories of their first impressions of usa — things they never knew about the US until they arrived. [/quote]

I’d like to hear a few of those impressions about what they didn’t know until they got here.

That’s one of the types of videos I’m addicted to on YouTube.

[zk]

[quote=Hobie]Closing schools and cancelling school sports, performances, and other activities in light of no students currently infected seems a bit overkill. IMHO

[/quote]

Experts would disagree:

If we don’t flatten the curve, this could be the result:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/13/coronavirus-numbers-we-really-should-be-worried-about/

[Hobie]

zk: you are too smart to be drinking the koolaid.

Back in 2009 the swine flu now called H1N1 was the epidemic virus. It appears every year from then on.

Some reading:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

The difference is the press response and the resulting public frenzy.

Something to think about.

[Author]

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