Today’s Speculative Bets: Puts on NASDAQ and S&P500

[cooperthedog]

Congratulations on your success!

As to shorting oil, why throw good money after bad? Stating that you plan to make money on your oil position demonstrates an emotional need not to lose (one that we all possess) and that left unchecked will generally lead to substantial losses in the markets. The reluctance to take a loss on a investment/trade, holding on until breakeven, or far worse, averaging down is the Achilles heel of most investors. In the future, you should strongly consider cutting your losses at a fixed percentage or hedging your exposure.

Assuming oil is the bubble you think it is, then what makes you think you know when the top will occur? Bubbles experience parabolic moves that will not adhere to fundamentals and can continue far longer then anyone expects. As a reader of Piggington’s, you should be initimately aware of that.

[rseiser]

Did quite well shorting this year (finally!). But covered most now. It is not easy as I described before in my article.

Regarding shorting oil, I don’t think I would do it considering the risk. As a better strategy, I would consider going long on companies whose input costs depend strongly on oil. That way, if oil goes down one can make a good profit on the long side. And if it doesn’t, one can still collect some dividends or hope that the company passes on the higher costs well. I would be looking for example at Dow Chemical (DOW). They just increased their prices a lot, and I doubt they will lower them if oil comes down.

But I am happy for any other ideas.

[rseiser]

Did quite well shorting this year (finally!). But covered most now. It is not easy as I described before in my article.

Regarding shorting oil, I don’t think I would do it considering the risk. As a better strategy, I would consider going long on companies whose input costs depend strongly on oil. That way, if oil goes down one can make a good profit on the long side. And if it doesn’t, one can still collect some dividends or hope that the company passes on the higher costs well. I would be looking for example at Dow Chemical (DOW). They just increased their prices a lot, and I doubt they will lower them if oil comes down.

But I am happy for any other ideas.

[rseiser]

Did quite well shorting this year (finally!). But covered most now. It is not easy as I described before in my article.

Regarding shorting oil, I don’t think I would do it considering the risk. As a better strategy, I would consider going long on companies whose input costs depend strongly on oil. That way, if oil goes down one can make a good profit on the long side. And if it doesn’t, one can still collect some dividends or hope that the company passes on the higher costs well. I would be looking for example at Dow Chemical (DOW). They just increased their prices a lot, and I doubt they will lower them if oil comes down.

But I am happy for any other ideas.

[rseiser]

Did quite well shorting this year (finally!). But covered most now. It is not easy as I described before in my article.

Regarding shorting oil, I don’t think I would do it considering the risk. As a better strategy, I would consider going long on companies whose input costs depend strongly on oil. That way, if oil goes down one can make a good profit on the long side. And if it doesn’t, one can still collect some dividends or hope that the company passes on the higher costs well. I would be looking for example at Dow Chemical (DOW). They just increased their prices a lot, and I doubt they will lower them if oil comes down.

But I am happy for any other ideas.

[rseiser]

Did quite well shorting this year (finally!). But covered most now. It is not easy as I described before in my article.

Regarding shorting oil, I don’t think I would do it considering the risk. As a better strategy, I would consider going long on companies whose input costs depend strongly on oil. That way, if oil goes down one can make a good profit on the long side. And if it doesn’t, one can still collect some dividends or hope that the company passes on the higher costs well. I would be looking for example at Dow Chemical (DOW). They just increased their prices a lot, and I doubt they will lower them if oil comes down.

But I am happy for any other ideas.

[Raybyrnes]

How about thinking along the lines of Tire companies or Kimberly Clark. I believe that diapers are mostly derived from Oil products. Huggies and Goodyear would be big beneficiaries of lower oil plays.

[Raybyrnes]

How about thinking along the lines of Tire companies or Kimberly Clark. I believe that diapers are mostly derived from Oil products. Huggies and Goodyear would be big beneficiaries of lower oil plays.

[Raybyrnes]

How about thinking along the lines of Tire companies or Kimberly Clark. I believe that diapers are mostly derived from Oil products. Huggies and Goodyear would be big beneficiaries of lower oil plays.

[Raybyrnes]

How about thinking along the lines of Tire companies or Kimberly Clark. I believe that diapers are mostly derived from Oil products. Huggies and Goodyear would be big beneficiaries of lower oil plays.

[Raybyrnes]

How about thinking along the lines of Tire companies or Kimberly Clark. I believe that diapers are mostly derived from Oil products. Huggies and Goodyear would be big beneficiaries of lower oil plays.

[equalizer]

For very risky bet on falling oil try the airlines. Small drop in oil will easily double the prices. Cautious investors like Stuart Schweitzer of JPMorgan Private Bank have started buying distressed debt, companies that wont go under like (my guess) GM or WAMU.

stockstrdt: What factors convinced you to go short, technical ones? The VIX is not surging (only in the low 20’s as opposed to midthirties back on black Stearns day) which is typically very bad for bulls. The 50 day EMA and 200EMA last crossed earlier this year and this is also bearish. With the dow and S&P 500 near strong resistance at 20% off peak, we are near crucial junction. We could get slow painful decline aka 2001-2002 or my prediction that 90% odds in pres election years the market will rally from July-Oct. The party in charge is going to sit idly by and watch economy, market just slide down without putting all stops to help their party?

VIX vs SPX
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/10-year-vix-cha.html

[equalizer]

For very risky bet on falling oil try the airlines. Small drop in oil will easily double the prices. Cautious investors like Stuart Schweitzer of JPMorgan Private Bank have started buying distressed debt, companies that wont go under like (my guess) GM or WAMU.

stockstrdt: What factors convinced you to go short, technical ones? The VIX is not surging (only in the low 20’s as opposed to midthirties back on black Stearns day) which is typically very bad for bulls. The 50 day EMA and 200EMA last crossed earlier this year and this is also bearish. With the dow and S&P 500 near strong resistance at 20% off peak, we are near crucial junction. We could get slow painful decline aka 2001-2002 or my prediction that 90% odds in pres election years the market will rally from July-Oct. The party in charge is going to sit idly by and watch economy, market just slide down without putting all stops to help their party?

VIX vs SPX
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/10-year-vix-cha.html

[equalizer]

For very risky bet on falling oil try the airlines. Small drop in oil will easily double the prices. Cautious investors like Stuart Schweitzer of JPMorgan Private Bank have started buying distressed debt, companies that wont go under like (my guess) GM or WAMU.

stockstrdt: What factors convinced you to go short, technical ones? The VIX is not surging (only in the low 20’s as opposed to midthirties back on black Stearns day) which is typically very bad for bulls. The 50 day EMA and 200EMA last crossed earlier this year and this is also bearish. With the dow and S&P 500 near strong resistance at 20% off peak, we are near crucial junction. We could get slow painful decline aka 2001-2002 or my prediction that 90% odds in pres election years the market will rally from July-Oct. The party in charge is going to sit idly by and watch economy, market just slide down without putting all stops to help their party?

VIX vs SPX
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/10-year-vix-cha.html

[equalizer]

For very risky bet on falling oil try the airlines. Small drop in oil will easily double the prices. Cautious investors like Stuart Schweitzer of JPMorgan Private Bank have started buying distressed debt, companies that wont go under like (my guess) GM or WAMU.

stockstrdt: What factors convinced you to go short, technical ones? The VIX is not surging (only in the low 20’s as opposed to midthirties back on black Stearns day) which is typically very bad for bulls. The 50 day EMA and 200EMA last crossed earlier this year and this is also bearish. With the dow and S&P 500 near strong resistance at 20% off peak, we are near crucial junction. We could get slow painful decline aka 2001-2002 or my prediction that 90% odds in pres election years the market will rally from July-Oct. The party in charge is going to sit idly by and watch economy, market just slide down without putting all stops to help their party?

VIX vs SPX
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/10-year-vix-cha.html

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