Time to Start Predicting for 2010

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

The China lending clamp down does not help.

Yea I am starting to join the double dip crowd now, There was starting to be too much bullishness about the first few weeks this year.

Hmm still need to think about it, as this should be the time we start to recover though.

[greekfire]

I couldn’t help but think of that scene when I saw this post. I think 2010 will either be somewhat of a blood bath or a lead up to it. My gut and the numbers tell me that we have long been living on borrowed time and money for a LONG time, and a correction should come sooner rather than later. But then my realistic side says that the PTB will do absolutely anything they can to keep the music playing.

I posted a few months back that this was 2005 all over again…in the sense that the fundamentals are telling us one thing and the PTB are telling us another. The employment situation will get much bleaker in 2010 – and watch for commercial real estate to go through a sub-prime-like crisis, with another obligatory bailout for the banks. I can’t make a move here in Carlsbad without seeing a “For Lease” sign outside some office building. Oh, and Carlsbad’s TOT revenues were down 20% in 2009. Not good.

[greekfire]

I couldn’t help but think of that scene when I saw this post. I think 2010 will either be somewhat of a blood bath or a lead up to it. My gut and the numbers tell me that we have long been living on borrowed time and money for a LONG time, and a correction should come sooner rather than later. But then my realistic side says that the PTB will do absolutely anything they can to keep the music playing.

I posted a few months back that this was 2005 all over again…in the sense that the fundamentals are telling us one thing and the PTB are telling us another. The employment situation will get much bleaker in 2010 – and watch for commercial real estate to go through a sub-prime-like crisis, with another obligatory bailout for the banks. I can’t make a move here in Carlsbad without seeing a “For Lease” sign outside some office building. Oh, and Carlsbad’s TOT revenues were down 20% in 2009. Not good.

[greekfire]

I couldn’t help but think of that scene when I saw this post. I think 2010 will either be somewhat of a blood bath or a lead up to it. My gut and the numbers tell me that we have long been living on borrowed time and money for a LONG time, and a correction should come sooner rather than later. But then my realistic side says that the PTB will do absolutely anything they can to keep the music playing.

I posted a few months back that this was 2005 all over again…in the sense that the fundamentals are telling us one thing and the PTB are telling us another. The employment situation will get much bleaker in 2010 – and watch for commercial real estate to go through a sub-prime-like crisis, with another obligatory bailout for the banks. I can’t make a move here in Carlsbad without seeing a “For Lease” sign outside some office building. Oh, and Carlsbad’s TOT revenues were down 20% in 2009. Not good.

[greekfire]

I couldn’t help but think of that scene when I saw this post. I think 2010 will either be somewhat of a blood bath or a lead up to it. My gut and the numbers tell me that we have long been living on borrowed time and money for a LONG time, and a correction should come sooner rather than later. But then my realistic side says that the PTB will do absolutely anything they can to keep the music playing.

I posted a few months back that this was 2005 all over again…in the sense that the fundamentals are telling us one thing and the PTB are telling us another. The employment situation will get much bleaker in 2010 – and watch for commercial real estate to go through a sub-prime-like crisis, with another obligatory bailout for the banks. I can’t make a move here in Carlsbad without seeing a “For Lease” sign outside some office building. Oh, and Carlsbad’s TOT revenues were down 20% in 2009. Not good.

[greekfire]

I couldn’t help but think of that scene when I saw this post. I think 2010 will either be somewhat of a blood bath or a lead up to it. My gut and the numbers tell me that we have long been living on borrowed time and money for a LONG time, and a correction should come sooner rather than later. But then my realistic side says that the PTB will do absolutely anything they can to keep the music playing.

I posted a few months back that this was 2005 all over again…in the sense that the fundamentals are telling us one thing and the PTB are telling us another. The employment situation will get much bleaker in 2010 – and watch for commercial real estate to go through a sub-prime-like crisis, with another obligatory bailout for the banks. I can’t make a move here in Carlsbad without seeing a “For Lease” sign outside some office building. Oh, and Carlsbad’s TOT revenues were down 20% in 2009. Not good.

[SD Realtor]

I actually believe quite the opposite. I think that yesterdays election will serve as a catalyst. I think that some in the democratic party are scared straight and now understand that there is one and only one thing Americans care about right now. Jobs. I believe we will see a substantial effort by the political establishment to get people back to work…. meaningful or not they will create jobs and this will be done in 2010. I do not see any huge downtrend and quite honestly I didn’t before yesterdays election. In fact, those in the know, understand the bulk of the stimulus money is targetted for 2010 anyways… anyone wonder why that was? Right now demand for SD real estate is still quite strong. I can EASILY see more govt programs, more incentives to buy homes, and more bond market shenanigans such that long term rates will not go up significantly.

You see… those in power do not like to give up power… dems or pubes… it doesnt matter. Unemployed masses vote for change. So the only way these guys remain in power is to get people employed.

In short the can will be kicked down the road some more.

It is not time yet. Soon, a few more years but the camels back is not quite ready to break. It can take a few more straws.

[SD Realtor]

I actually believe quite the opposite. I think that yesterdays election will serve as a catalyst. I think that some in the democratic party are scared straight and now understand that there is one and only one thing Americans care about right now. Jobs. I believe we will see a substantial effort by the political establishment to get people back to work…. meaningful or not they will create jobs and this will be done in 2010. I do not see any huge downtrend and quite honestly I didn’t before yesterdays election. In fact, those in the know, understand the bulk of the stimulus money is targetted for 2010 anyways… anyone wonder why that was? Right now demand for SD real estate is still quite strong. I can EASILY see more govt programs, more incentives to buy homes, and more bond market shenanigans such that long term rates will not go up significantly.

You see… those in power do not like to give up power… dems or pubes… it doesnt matter. Unemployed masses vote for change. So the only way these guys remain in power is to get people employed.

In short the can will be kicked down the road some more.

It is not time yet. Soon, a few more years but the camels back is not quite ready to break. It can take a few more straws.

[SD Realtor]

I actually believe quite the opposite. I think that yesterdays election will serve as a catalyst. I think that some in the democratic party are scared straight and now understand that there is one and only one thing Americans care about right now. Jobs. I believe we will see a substantial effort by the political establishment to get people back to work…. meaningful or not they will create jobs and this will be done in 2010. I do not see any huge downtrend and quite honestly I didn’t before yesterdays election. In fact, those in the know, understand the bulk of the stimulus money is targetted for 2010 anyways… anyone wonder why that was? Right now demand for SD real estate is still quite strong. I can EASILY see more govt programs, more incentives to buy homes, and more bond market shenanigans such that long term rates will not go up significantly.

You see… those in power do not like to give up power… dems or pubes… it doesnt matter. Unemployed masses vote for change. So the only way these guys remain in power is to get people employed.

In short the can will be kicked down the road some more.

It is not time yet. Soon, a few more years but the camels back is not quite ready to break. It can take a few more straws.

[SD Realtor]

I actually believe quite the opposite. I think that yesterdays election will serve as a catalyst. I think that some in the democratic party are scared straight and now understand that there is one and only one thing Americans care about right now. Jobs. I believe we will see a substantial effort by the political establishment to get people back to work…. meaningful or not they will create jobs and this will be done in 2010. I do not see any huge downtrend and quite honestly I didn’t before yesterdays election. In fact, those in the know, understand the bulk of the stimulus money is targetted for 2010 anyways… anyone wonder why that was? Right now demand for SD real estate is still quite strong. I can EASILY see more govt programs, more incentives to buy homes, and more bond market shenanigans such that long term rates will not go up significantly.

You see… those in power do not like to give up power… dems or pubes… it doesnt matter. Unemployed masses vote for change. So the only way these guys remain in power is to get people employed.

In short the can will be kicked down the road some more.

It is not time yet. Soon, a few more years but the camels back is not quite ready to break. It can take a few more straws.

[SD Realtor]

I actually believe quite the opposite. I think that yesterdays election will serve as a catalyst. I think that some in the democratic party are scared straight and now understand that there is one and only one thing Americans care about right now. Jobs. I believe we will see a substantial effort by the political establishment to get people back to work…. meaningful or not they will create jobs and this will be done in 2010. I do not see any huge downtrend and quite honestly I didn’t before yesterdays election. In fact, those in the know, understand the bulk of the stimulus money is targetted for 2010 anyways… anyone wonder why that was? Right now demand for SD real estate is still quite strong. I can EASILY see more govt programs, more incentives to buy homes, and more bond market shenanigans such that long term rates will not go up significantly.

You see… those in power do not like to give up power… dems or pubes… it doesnt matter. Unemployed masses vote for change. So the only way these guys remain in power is to get people employed.

In short the can will be kicked down the road some more.

It is not time yet. Soon, a few more years but the camels back is not quite ready to break. It can take a few more straws.

[cabal]

My 2 cents…

HOUSING – Low and mid range SD homes in desirable areas with good schools will enjoy continued and steady appreciation. Entry level high end homes (defined as 800K to 1.3M) will fully stabilize by 3Q and remain flat. High end homes (above 1.5M) will continue to decline. The tsunami of foreclosures will not materialize. Fully indexed rates on resets and recasts will average 3.5% for the year.

JOBS – Unemployment rate for hourly workers will slightly worsen, while white collar jobs stabilize. Aggregate unemployment will increase negligibly hovering near 10%.

OIL – Demand will exceed worldwide capacity levels near 88M barrels/day. Price will fluctuate between $65 to $85 and trend towards $85 by end of year. TPTB will enforce this range to ensure continued recovery.

GOLD – Excellent electrical conductance and corrosion properties and ideal material for fine jewelry. Beyond that, it has no intrinsic value. Judging by the number of infomercials, we are well into the speculative phase. Look for the big crash once an inkling of confidence is established in the global monetary system. It’s just a matter of time with smart money leaving the flock as early as 2Q. You might as well buy Dutch tulips.

STOCK MARKET – The market will rebound to 9/2008 levels with the SP500 & DOW zigzagging ,but trending towards a peak of 1250 and 11300, respectively. Yes, it’s overvalued, but what does that have to do with anything.

INTEREST RATES – Federal funds rate will remain near zero for the year, perhaps increasing to .5% by year end as fiscal stimulus cascades into the economy. Regardless of M3 increase, inflation will remain non-existent. Still spooked, consumers and businesses will remain overly cautious applying excess money to pay down debt and cleanse balance sheets , and not slosh around in the economy.

DOLLAR – Will remain the preeminent reserve currency. Let’s review – oil is traded in dollars, dollar is decoupled from gold, we can print dollars to our hearts content, China and Japan own so much US treasuries they can’t divest without collapsing their investment and exports, and if push come to shove we have the baddest arm forces on earth. It’s a beautiful thing.

NEXT BUBBLE – I’ve been looking for the next emerging bubble to invest with a 5 year peak horizon for harvest. No clear winner so far. Clean energy, social networking enterprises, any suggestions ?

Our union continues to remain strong. Anytime we approach critical mass, the good people of this nation become engaged and quickly swing the pendulum back restoring order to the universe, as evidenced by the Massachusetts election result. So to all the Piggs living in underground bunkers, you can ease off on all the doomsday posts, come out and enjoy the sun.

[cabal]

My 2 cents…

HOUSING – Low and mid range SD homes in desirable areas with good schools will enjoy continued and steady appreciation. Entry level high end homes (defined as 800K to 1.3M) will fully stabilize by 3Q and remain flat. High end homes (above 1.5M) will continue to decline. The tsunami of foreclosures will not materialize. Fully indexed rates on resets and recasts will average 3.5% for the year.

JOBS – Unemployment rate for hourly workers will slightly worsen, while white collar jobs stabilize. Aggregate unemployment will increase negligibly hovering near 10%.

OIL – Demand will exceed worldwide capacity levels near 88M barrels/day. Price will fluctuate between $65 to $85 and trend towards $85 by end of year. TPTB will enforce this range to ensure continued recovery.

GOLD – Excellent electrical conductance and corrosion properties and ideal material for fine jewelry. Beyond that, it has no intrinsic value. Judging by the number of infomercials, we are well into the speculative phase. Look for the big crash once an inkling of confidence is established in the global monetary system. It’s just a matter of time with smart money leaving the flock as early as 2Q. You might as well buy Dutch tulips.

STOCK MARKET – The market will rebound to 9/2008 levels with the SP500 & DOW zigzagging ,but trending towards a peak of 1250 and 11300, respectively. Yes, it’s overvalued, but what does that have to do with anything.

INTEREST RATES – Federal funds rate will remain near zero for the year, perhaps increasing to .5% by year end as fiscal stimulus cascades into the economy. Regardless of M3 increase, inflation will remain non-existent. Still spooked, consumers and businesses will remain overly cautious applying excess money to pay down debt and cleanse balance sheets , and not slosh around in the economy.

DOLLAR – Will remain the preeminent reserve currency. Let’s review – oil is traded in dollars, dollar is decoupled from gold, we can print dollars to our hearts content, China and Japan own so much US treasuries they can’t divest without collapsing their investment and exports, and if push come to shove we have the baddest arm forces on earth. It’s a beautiful thing.

NEXT BUBBLE – I’ve been looking for the next emerging bubble to invest with a 5 year peak horizon for harvest. No clear winner so far. Clean energy, social networking enterprises, any suggestions ?

Our union continues to remain strong. Anytime we approach critical mass, the good people of this nation become engaged and quickly swing the pendulum back restoring order to the universe, as evidenced by the Massachusetts election result. So to all the Piggs living in underground bunkers, you can ease off on all the doomsday posts, come out and enjoy the sun.

[cabal]

My 2 cents…

HOUSING – Low and mid range SD homes in desirable areas with good schools will enjoy continued and steady appreciation. Entry level high end homes (defined as 800K to 1.3M) will fully stabilize by 3Q and remain flat. High end homes (above 1.5M) will continue to decline. The tsunami of foreclosures will not materialize. Fully indexed rates on resets and recasts will average 3.5% for the year.

JOBS – Unemployment rate for hourly workers will slightly worsen, while white collar jobs stabilize. Aggregate unemployment will increase negligibly hovering near 10%.

OIL – Demand will exceed worldwide capacity levels near 88M barrels/day. Price will fluctuate between $65 to $85 and trend towards $85 by end of year. TPTB will enforce this range to ensure continued recovery.

GOLD – Excellent electrical conductance and corrosion properties and ideal material for fine jewelry. Beyond that, it has no intrinsic value. Judging by the number of infomercials, we are well into the speculative phase. Look for the big crash once an inkling of confidence is established in the global monetary system. It’s just a matter of time with smart money leaving the flock as early as 2Q. You might as well buy Dutch tulips.

STOCK MARKET – The market will rebound to 9/2008 levels with the SP500 & DOW zigzagging ,but trending towards a peak of 1250 and 11300, respectively. Yes, it’s overvalued, but what does that have to do with anything.

INTEREST RATES – Federal funds rate will remain near zero for the year, perhaps increasing to .5% by year end as fiscal stimulus cascades into the economy. Regardless of M3 increase, inflation will remain non-existent. Still spooked, consumers and businesses will remain overly cautious applying excess money to pay down debt and cleanse balance sheets , and not slosh around in the economy.

DOLLAR – Will remain the preeminent reserve currency. Let’s review – oil is traded in dollars, dollar is decoupled from gold, we can print dollars to our hearts content, China and Japan own so much US treasuries they can’t divest without collapsing their investment and exports, and if push come to shove we have the baddest arm forces on earth. It’s a beautiful thing.

NEXT BUBBLE – I’ve been looking for the next emerging bubble to invest with a 5 year peak horizon for harvest. No clear winner so far. Clean energy, social networking enterprises, any suggestions ?

Our union continues to remain strong. Anytime we approach critical mass, the good people of this nation become engaged and quickly swing the pendulum back restoring order to the universe, as evidenced by the Massachusetts election result. So to all the Piggs living in underground bunkers, you can ease off on all the doomsday posts, come out and enjoy the sun.

[cabal]

My 2 cents…

HOUSING – Low and mid range SD homes in desirable areas with good schools will enjoy continued and steady appreciation. Entry level high end homes (defined as 800K to 1.3M) will fully stabilize by 3Q and remain flat. High end homes (above 1.5M) will continue to decline. The tsunami of foreclosures will not materialize. Fully indexed rates on resets and recasts will average 3.5% for the year.

JOBS – Unemployment rate for hourly workers will slightly worsen, while white collar jobs stabilize. Aggregate unemployment will increase negligibly hovering near 10%.

OIL – Demand will exceed worldwide capacity levels near 88M barrels/day. Price will fluctuate between $65 to $85 and trend towards $85 by end of year. TPTB will enforce this range to ensure continued recovery.

GOLD – Excellent electrical conductance and corrosion properties and ideal material for fine jewelry. Beyond that, it has no intrinsic value. Judging by the number of infomercials, we are well into the speculative phase. Look for the big crash once an inkling of confidence is established in the global monetary system. It’s just a matter of time with smart money leaving the flock as early as 2Q. You might as well buy Dutch tulips.

STOCK MARKET – The market will rebound to 9/2008 levels with the SP500 & DOW zigzagging ,but trending towards a peak of 1250 and 11300, respectively. Yes, it’s overvalued, but what does that have to do with anything.

INTEREST RATES – Federal funds rate will remain near zero for the year, perhaps increasing to .5% by year end as fiscal stimulus cascades into the economy. Regardless of M3 increase, inflation will remain non-existent. Still spooked, consumers and businesses will remain overly cautious applying excess money to pay down debt and cleanse balance sheets , and not slosh around in the economy.

DOLLAR – Will remain the preeminent reserve currency. Let’s review – oil is traded in dollars, dollar is decoupled from gold, we can print dollars to our hearts content, China and Japan own so much US treasuries they can’t divest without collapsing their investment and exports, and if push come to shove we have the baddest arm forces on earth. It’s a beautiful thing.

NEXT BUBBLE – I’ve been looking for the next emerging bubble to invest with a 5 year peak horizon for harvest. No clear winner so far. Clean energy, social networking enterprises, any suggestions ?

Our union continues to remain strong. Anytime we approach critical mass, the good people of this nation become engaged and quickly swing the pendulum back restoring order to the universe, as evidenced by the Massachusetts election result. So to all the Piggs living in underground bunkers, you can ease off on all the doomsday posts, come out and enjoy the sun.

[Author]

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