Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Time to buy the stock market?
- This topic has 340 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 9 months ago by
afx114.
-
AuthorPosts
-
February 2, 2009 at 8:10 AM #340345February 2, 2009 at 8:24 AM #339812
stockstradr
ParticipantFormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.
February 2, 2009 at 8:24 AM #340138ParticipantFormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.
February 2, 2009 at 8:24 AM #340234ParticipantFormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.
February 2, 2009 at 8:24 AM #340261ParticipantFormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.
February 2, 2009 at 8:24 AM #340355ParticipantFormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.
February 2, 2009 at 8:32 AM #339817(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI like the example that HLS gave. Note that there were a number of cycles during the period of 1965 to 1984. Accumulating stocks during the bear portions of these cycles would have paid off handsomely, even in 1984.
These long periods or trends are considered secular trends. The markets have been in a secular bear trend since 2000. We are into the second cyclical bear market in this trend. I’m betting that accumulating shares during the cyclical bear markets will pay off in the long run. I am also hedging my bets with alternative investments and not all-in on stocks (currently about 50% of portfolio).
You guys who can predict where the market is 3, , and 12 months from now have the luxury of staking your future on that knowledge and can act on those instincts.
I however know that I personally do not have those capabilities. I will always be wrong in the short run, but comfortable in the fact that I don’t have to be right all the time either.
To each his own.
February 2, 2009 at 8:32 AM #340143ParticipantI like the example that HLS gave. Note that there were a number of cycles during the period of 1965 to 1984. Accumulating stocks during the bear portions of these cycles would have paid off handsomely, even in 1984.
These long periods or trends are considered secular trends. The markets have been in a secular bear trend since 2000. We are into the second cyclical bear market in this trend. I’m betting that accumulating shares during the cyclical bear markets will pay off in the long run. I am also hedging my bets with alternative investments and not all-in on stocks (currently about 50% of portfolio).
You guys who can predict where the market is 3, , and 12 months from now have the luxury of staking your future on that knowledge and can act on those instincts.
I however know that I personally do not have those capabilities. I will always be wrong in the short run, but comfortable in the fact that I don’t have to be right all the time either.
To each his own.
February 2, 2009 at 8:32 AM #340239ParticipantI like the example that HLS gave. Note that there were a number of cycles during the period of 1965 to 1984. Accumulating stocks during the bear portions of these cycles would have paid off handsomely, even in 1984.
These long periods or trends are considered secular trends. The markets have been in a secular bear trend since 2000. We are into the second cyclical bear market in this trend. I’m betting that accumulating shares during the cyclical bear markets will pay off in the long run. I am also hedging my bets with alternative investments and not all-in on stocks (currently about 50% of portfolio).
You guys who can predict where the market is 3, , and 12 months from now have the luxury of staking your future on that knowledge and can act on those instincts.
I however know that I personally do not have those capabilities. I will always be wrong in the short run, but comfortable in the fact that I don’t have to be right all the time either.
To each his own.
February 2, 2009 at 8:32 AM #340266ParticipantI like the example that HLS gave. Note that there were a number of cycles during the period of 1965 to 1984. Accumulating stocks during the bear portions of these cycles would have paid off handsomely, even in 1984.
These long periods or trends are considered secular trends. The markets have been in a secular bear trend since 2000. We are into the second cyclical bear market in this trend. I’m betting that accumulating shares during the cyclical bear markets will pay off in the long run. I am also hedging my bets with alternative investments and not all-in on stocks (currently about 50% of portfolio).
You guys who can predict where the market is 3, , and 12 months from now have the luxury of staking your future on that knowledge and can act on those instincts.
I however know that I personally do not have those capabilities. I will always be wrong in the short run, but comfortable in the fact that I don’t have to be right all the time either.
To each his own.
February 2, 2009 at 8:32 AM #340360ParticipantI like the example that HLS gave. Note that there were a number of cycles during the period of 1965 to 1984. Accumulating stocks during the bear portions of these cycles would have paid off handsomely, even in 1984.
These long periods or trends are considered secular trends. The markets have been in a secular bear trend since 2000. We are into the second cyclical bear market in this trend. I’m betting that accumulating shares during the cyclical bear markets will pay off in the long run. I am also hedging my bets with alternative investments and not all-in on stocks (currently about 50% of portfolio).
You guys who can predict where the market is 3, , and 12 months from now have the luxury of staking your future on that knowledge and can act on those instincts.
I however know that I personally do not have those capabilities. I will always be wrong in the short run, but comfortable in the fact that I don’t have to be right all the time either.
To each his own.
February 2, 2009 at 9:09 AM #339842Participant[quote=stockstradr]FormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.[/quote]
I agree that we entered a secular bear in 2000 and that the Fed’s response to the stock market bubble collapse did lead to the further inflation of the housing bubble.
My point is that his statement that “we just finished a 25 year bull market in US equities” is
false.How could we have just finished a 25 year bull market in equities, when a mere 6 years ago we had just experienced a 40-50% decline in equities ?
His assertion that “to think that a 25 year bull market can be corrected in 15 months is fairly amusing” is misleading since, in fact the bull run ended in 2000 and we have been in a secular bear market for 8-9 years, not 15 months.
February 2, 2009 at 9:09 AM #340168Participant[quote=stockstradr]FormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.[/quote]
I agree that we entered a secular bear in 2000 and that the Fed’s response to the stock market bubble collapse did lead to the further inflation of the housing bubble.
My point is that his statement that “we just finished a 25 year bull market in US equities” is
false.How could we have just finished a 25 year bull market in equities, when a mere 6 years ago we had just experienced a 40-50% decline in equities ?
His assertion that “to think that a 25 year bull market can be corrected in 15 months is fairly amusing” is misleading since, in fact the bull run ended in 2000 and we have been in a secular bear market for 8-9 years, not 15 months.
February 2, 2009 at 9:09 AM #340264Participant[quote=stockstradr]FormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.[/quote]
I agree that we entered a secular bear in 2000 and that the Fed’s response to the stock market bubble collapse did lead to the further inflation of the housing bubble.
My point is that his statement that “we just finished a 25 year bull market in US equities” is
false.How could we have just finished a 25 year bull market in equities, when a mere 6 years ago we had just experienced a 40-50% decline in equities ?
His assertion that “to think that a 25 year bull market can be corrected in 15 months is fairly amusing” is misleading since, in fact the bull run ended in 2000 and we have been in a secular bear market for 8-9 years, not 15 months.
February 2, 2009 at 9:09 AM #340291Participant[quote=stockstradr]FormerSanDiegan,
4plexowner’s post was VERY sharp, very insightful. I say that 4plexowner is NOT confused and is correct with that post.
Some of the most legendary, decades-long-stellar track record hedge fund managers have same analysis on 2000 to 2007 period as 4plexowner’s post.
Their view is that great bear market (and great depression) began with the dot com market crash (but that decline was not allowed to run its natural course, it was instead artificially “kicked forward” to now.
But now we don’t have any ammo left to kick the can forward some more.[/quote]
I agree that we entered a secular bear in 2000 and that the Fed’s response to the stock market bubble collapse did lead to the further inflation of the housing bubble.
My point is that his statement that “we just finished a 25 year bull market in US equities” is
false.How could we have just finished a 25 year bull market in equities, when a mere 6 years ago we had just experienced a 40-50% decline in equities ?
His assertion that “to think that a 25 year bull market can be corrected in 15 months is fairly amusing” is misleading since, in fact the bull run ended in 2000 and we have been in a secular bear market for 8-9 years, not 15 months.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.