Time to buy oil?

[kewp]

[quote=temeculaguy]
We are the #1 oil consumer and we have decided we don’t like it and are concentrating our efforts to get away from it. Name an expanding business where your customers are spending time and money to not be customers. [/quote]

I really hope you are right.

I’m personally not buying a new car until I can get a series hybrid that can run on biodiesel or ethanol.

I don’t even care if I have to pay a premium for it. I’m just sick and tired of subsidizing our enemies.

[MadeInTaiwan]

[quote=temeculaguy]Oil is done, it will have pops but that cat isn’t getting back in the bag…

The tesla and other startups may fail and the prius was just a novel start but the auto industry is heading to entirely oil free because that is what the customers want… [/quote]

I want to make a couple points.

1 – Once the world economy picks up, lowering gasoline consumption in itself will not lower crude demand. The way I understand it a barrel of oil can produce three lines of products, chemical products used by industry like plastics, fertilizer, asphalt?; diesel and airplane fuel, gasoline for autos. The percentage of each line that can be extracted from a barrel oil is fixed. I.e., lowering gasoline consumption will get you no more diesel or airplane fuel per barrel of oil. Therefore, in order to decrease world demand for oil, we need to find alternative sources for all three lines, not just gasoline, and or airplane fuel, or diesel. I’ve read of attempts to create bio-diesel bio-airplane fuel by doing stuff like modifying bacteria genes. However, if memory serves the estimated level or profitability is when oil is above $120/barrel.

2- Most steady industry analysts believe that oil will go back up once world economy recovers. However, no one is sure when that will occur, and just as importantly, I don’t know how to safely long oil for that eventuality. I am pretty sure you can’t buy oil for delivery in 2015 today. I’ve posted elsewhere on this blog cautioning against buying stock in oil multi-nationals because they control less and less of the oil in the ground. Most of new fields are controlled by states that are not friendly with us (Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia (not directly, but via the dominant Wahhabism Islam promoted by the state), former Soviet republics). I’ve read suggestions to invest in companies that specialize in oil field service and oil field discovery when crude was ~$140/barrel. Well, that is assuming these companies survice the lack of activity in the next few years due to low prices.

[MadeInTaiwan]

[quote=temeculaguy]Oil is done, it will have pops but that cat isn’t getting back in the bag…

The tesla and other startups may fail and the prius was just a novel start but the auto industry is heading to entirely oil free because that is what the customers want… [/quote]

I want to make a couple points.

1 – Once the world economy picks up, lowering gasoline consumption in itself will not lower crude demand. The way I understand it a barrel of oil can produce three lines of products, chemical products used by industry like plastics, fertilizer, asphalt?; diesel and airplane fuel, gasoline for autos. The percentage of each line that can be extracted from a barrel oil is fixed. I.e., lowering gasoline consumption will get you no more diesel or airplane fuel per barrel of oil. Therefore, in order to decrease world demand for oil, we need to find alternative sources for all three lines, not just gasoline, and or airplane fuel, or diesel. I’ve read of attempts to create bio-diesel bio-airplane fuel by doing stuff like modifying bacteria genes. However, if memory serves the estimated level or profitability is when oil is above $120/barrel.

2- Most steady industry analysts believe that oil will go back up once world economy recovers. However, no one is sure when that will occur, and just as importantly, I don’t know how to safely long oil for that eventuality. I am pretty sure you can’t buy oil for delivery in 2015 today. I’ve posted elsewhere on this blog cautioning against buying stock in oil multi-nationals because they control less and less of the oil in the ground. Most of new fields are controlled by states that are not friendly with us (Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia (not directly, but via the dominant Wahhabism Islam promoted by the state), former Soviet republics). I’ve read suggestions to invest in companies that specialize in oil field service and oil field discovery when crude was ~$140/barrel. Well, that is assuming these companies survice the lack of activity in the next few years due to low prices.

[MadeInTaiwan]

[quote=temeculaguy]Oil is done, it will have pops but that cat isn’t getting back in the bag…

The tesla and other startups may fail and the prius was just a novel start but the auto industry is heading to entirely oil free because that is what the customers want… [/quote]

I want to make a couple points.

1 – Once the world economy picks up, lowering gasoline consumption in itself will not lower crude demand. The way I understand it a barrel of oil can produce three lines of products, chemical products used by industry like plastics, fertilizer, asphalt?; diesel and airplane fuel, gasoline for autos. The percentage of each line that can be extracted from a barrel oil is fixed. I.e., lowering gasoline consumption will get you no more diesel or airplane fuel per barrel of oil. Therefore, in order to decrease world demand for oil, we need to find alternative sources for all three lines, not just gasoline, and or airplane fuel, or diesel. I’ve read of attempts to create bio-diesel bio-airplane fuel by doing stuff like modifying bacteria genes. However, if memory serves the estimated level or profitability is when oil is above $120/barrel.

2- Most steady industry analysts believe that oil will go back up once world economy recovers. However, no one is sure when that will occur, and just as importantly, I don’t know how to safely long oil for that eventuality. I am pretty sure you can’t buy oil for delivery in 2015 today. I’ve posted elsewhere on this blog cautioning against buying stock in oil multi-nationals because they control less and less of the oil in the ground. Most of new fields are controlled by states that are not friendly with us (Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia (not directly, but via the dominant Wahhabism Islam promoted by the state), former Soviet republics). I’ve read suggestions to invest in companies that specialize in oil field service and oil field discovery when crude was ~$140/barrel. Well, that is assuming these companies survice the lack of activity in the next few years due to low prices.

[MadeInTaiwan]

[quote=temeculaguy]Oil is done, it will have pops but that cat isn’t getting back in the bag…

The tesla and other startups may fail and the prius was just a novel start but the auto industry is heading to entirely oil free because that is what the customers want… [/quote]

I want to make a couple points.

1 – Once the world economy picks up, lowering gasoline consumption in itself will not lower crude demand. The way I understand it a barrel of oil can produce three lines of products, chemical products used by industry like plastics, fertilizer, asphalt?; diesel and airplane fuel, gasoline for autos. The percentage of each line that can be extracted from a barrel oil is fixed. I.e., lowering gasoline consumption will get you no more diesel or airplane fuel per barrel of oil. Therefore, in order to decrease world demand for oil, we need to find alternative sources for all three lines, not just gasoline, and or airplane fuel, or diesel. I’ve read of attempts to create bio-diesel bio-airplane fuel by doing stuff like modifying bacteria genes. However, if memory serves the estimated level or profitability is when oil is above $120/barrel.

2- Most steady industry analysts believe that oil will go back up once world economy recovers. However, no one is sure when that will occur, and just as importantly, I don’t know how to safely long oil for that eventuality. I am pretty sure you can’t buy oil for delivery in 2015 today. I’ve posted elsewhere on this blog cautioning against buying stock in oil multi-nationals because they control less and less of the oil in the ground. Most of new fields are controlled by states that are not friendly with us (Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia (not directly, but via the dominant Wahhabism Islam promoted by the state), former Soviet republics). I’ve read suggestions to invest in companies that specialize in oil field service and oil field discovery when crude was ~$140/barrel. Well, that is assuming these companies survice the lack of activity in the next few years due to low prices.

[MadeInTaiwan]

[quote=temeculaguy]Oil is done, it will have pops but that cat isn’t getting back in the bag…

The tesla and other startups may fail and the prius was just a novel start but the auto industry is heading to entirely oil free because that is what the customers want… [/quote]

I want to make a couple points.

1 – Once the world economy picks up, lowering gasoline consumption in itself will not lower crude demand. The way I understand it a barrel of oil can produce three lines of products, chemical products used by industry like plastics, fertilizer, asphalt?; diesel and airplane fuel, gasoline for autos. The percentage of each line that can be extracted from a barrel oil is fixed. I.e., lowering gasoline consumption will get you no more diesel or airplane fuel per barrel of oil. Therefore, in order to decrease world demand for oil, we need to find alternative sources for all three lines, not just gasoline, and or airplane fuel, or diesel. I’ve read of attempts to create bio-diesel bio-airplane fuel by doing stuff like modifying bacteria genes. However, if memory serves the estimated level or profitability is when oil is above $120/barrel.

2- Most steady industry analysts believe that oil will go back up once world economy recovers. However, no one is sure when that will occur, and just as importantly, I don’t know how to safely long oil for that eventuality. I am pretty sure you can’t buy oil for delivery in 2015 today. I’ve posted elsewhere on this blog cautioning against buying stock in oil multi-nationals because they control less and less of the oil in the ground. Most of new fields are controlled by states that are not friendly with us (Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia (not directly, but via the dominant Wahhabism Islam promoted by the state), former Soviet republics). I’ve read suggestions to invest in companies that specialize in oil field service and oil field discovery when crude was ~$140/barrel. Well, that is assuming these companies survice the lack of activity in the next few years due to low prices.

[stockstradr]

my vote is for a low of approx $30 before the decline is over

I know a good investment when i see it. Chris_Scoreboard’s opinions are a good investment!

Another brilliant post from Chris.

I think there remains incredible amounts of demand destruction still lurking ahead of oil markets

I’ll say this much, I do believe oil goes below $40/bbl within three months. That means I gotta sell my long oil stocks position SOON. My overall plan on oil is to DUMP them and then wait for $40 oil again, and then LOAD UP again on oil stocks.

[stockstradr]

my vote is for a low of approx $30 before the decline is over

I know a good investment when i see it. Chris_Scoreboard’s opinions are a good investment!

Another brilliant post from Chris.

I think there remains incredible amounts of demand destruction still lurking ahead of oil markets

I’ll say this much, I do believe oil goes below $40/bbl within three months. That means I gotta sell my long oil stocks position SOON. My overall plan on oil is to DUMP them and then wait for $40 oil again, and then LOAD UP again on oil stocks.

[stockstradr]

my vote is for a low of approx $30 before the decline is over

I know a good investment when i see it. Chris_Scoreboard’s opinions are a good investment!

Another brilliant post from Chris.

I think there remains incredible amounts of demand destruction still lurking ahead of oil markets

I’ll say this much, I do believe oil goes below $40/bbl within three months. That means I gotta sell my long oil stocks position SOON. My overall plan on oil is to DUMP them and then wait for $40 oil again, and then LOAD UP again on oil stocks.

[stockstradr]

my vote is for a low of approx $30 before the decline is over

I know a good investment when i see it. Chris_Scoreboard’s opinions are a good investment!

Another brilliant post from Chris.

I think there remains incredible amounts of demand destruction still lurking ahead of oil markets

I’ll say this much, I do believe oil goes below $40/bbl within three months. That means I gotta sell my long oil stocks position SOON. My overall plan on oil is to DUMP them and then wait for $40 oil again, and then LOAD UP again on oil stocks.

[stockstradr]

my vote is for a low of approx $30 before the decline is over

I know a good investment when i see it. Chris_Scoreboard’s opinions are a good investment!

Another brilliant post from Chris.

I think there remains incredible amounts of demand destruction still lurking ahead of oil markets

I’ll say this much, I do believe oil goes below $40/bbl within three months. That means I gotta sell my long oil stocks position SOON. My overall plan on oil is to DUMP them and then wait for $40 oil again, and then LOAD UP again on oil stocks.

[Arraya]

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

It’s pretty simple really,

oil companies are drastically cutting back on exploration because it is not profitable at $40 a barrel
– they are buying what oil that they can find right now (with the bazillions of dollars they made this year when oil was at $140 a barrel)
– they know that sooner or later, all the cutbacks in oil production are going to lead to a snap back in oil prices, sending them upwards fast
– nobody is going to be able to start pumping it out of the ground fast enough again to take advantage of the higher prices
– oil companies say “Hey, it just so happens we’ve got all these supertankers sitting here with oil in ’em”
– stored oil is sold to highest bidder
– oil companies laugh all the way to the bank (if there are any left a year from now)

In other words, have the oil companies started their own strategic oil reserves because they know a year from now that there won’t be enough oil to go round?

[Arraya]

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

It’s pretty simple really,

oil companies are drastically cutting back on exploration because it is not profitable at $40 a barrel
– they are buying what oil that they can find right now (with the bazillions of dollars they made this year when oil was at $140 a barrel)
– they know that sooner or later, all the cutbacks in oil production are going to lead to a snap back in oil prices, sending them upwards fast
– nobody is going to be able to start pumping it out of the ground fast enough again to take advantage of the higher prices
– oil companies say “Hey, it just so happens we’ve got all these supertankers sitting here with oil in ’em”
– stored oil is sold to highest bidder
– oil companies laugh all the way to the bank (if there are any left a year from now)

In other words, have the oil companies started their own strategic oil reserves because they know a year from now that there won’t be enough oil to go round?

[Arraya]

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

It’s pretty simple really,

oil companies are drastically cutting back on exploration because it is not profitable at $40 a barrel
– they are buying what oil that they can find right now (with the bazillions of dollars they made this year when oil was at $140 a barrel)
– they know that sooner or later, all the cutbacks in oil production are going to lead to a snap back in oil prices, sending them upwards fast
– nobody is going to be able to start pumping it out of the ground fast enough again to take advantage of the higher prices
– oil companies say “Hey, it just so happens we’ve got all these supertankers sitting here with oil in ’em”
– stored oil is sold to highest bidder
– oil companies laugh all the way to the bank (if there are any left a year from now)

In other words, have the oil companies started their own strategic oil reserves because they know a year from now that there won’t be enough oil to go round?

[Arraya]

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

It’s pretty simple really,

oil companies are drastically cutting back on exploration because it is not profitable at $40 a barrel
– they are buying what oil that they can find right now (with the bazillions of dollars they made this year when oil was at $140 a barrel)
– they know that sooner or later, all the cutbacks in oil production are going to lead to a snap back in oil prices, sending them upwards fast
– nobody is going to be able to start pumping it out of the ground fast enough again to take advantage of the higher prices
– oil companies say “Hey, it just so happens we’ve got all these supertankers sitting here with oil in ’em”
– stored oil is sold to highest bidder
– oil companies laugh all the way to the bank (if there are any left a year from now)

In other words, have the oil companies started their own strategic oil reserves because they know a year from now that there won’t be enough oil to go round?

[Author]

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