Time to buy oil?

[TheBreeze]

[quote=TheBreeze]

No idea if this is the “exact” bottom. I bought a nice chunk of USO today and plan to buy more over the next several weeks/months (unless oil happens to shoot higher from here). I plan to hold for a few years.

If the USO goes to 45 I’ll buy some more, 40 still more, 35 still more. If the USO drops below 30, I’ll stop buying. I’d like to have about 20% of my non-401(k) money in oil before all is said and done. That depends on the price action from here. If USO starts to rise and doesn’t stop, I may not buy anymore.[/quote]

It’s hard to believe I made this post like six days ago when the USO was at 50 and now it’s around 45. That’s too quick of a drop for me to continue with my plan. For now, I’ll stick with the chunk of USO I currently have and probably end up selling it about 25% lower from here as is my custom when I buy a stock.

[temeculaguy]

Oil is done, it will have pops but that cat isn’t getting back in the bag. Oil is today’s cigarettes, twenty years ago you would never think cigarette sales domestically would decline but they have the same elements but oil is worse.
1. Oil and cigarettes are bad for you
2. The manufacturers of both are demonized
3. We don’t actually need either we just want both
4. But only oil funds terrorists and transfers wealth out of the country. quitting smoking isn’t patriotic but quitting oil is.

This country makes turns like a aircraft carrier not a pt boat, but it does turn and it is turning against oil. Public opinion has turned, technology is on it’s heels. The tesla and other startups may fail and the prius was just a novel start but the auto industry is heading to entirely oil free because that is what the customers want, in 18 months the volt should arrive from chevy and others will follow, they will keep improving, faster and faster, with each car, oil loses more and the countries that rely on it have no choice but to keep pumping. In ten years cars wont run on gas and much of our electricity is being shifted away from oil (southern california edison claims it’s oil free, they really aren’t since they buy electricity but they are making huge strides not just publicity stunts).

We are the #1 oil consumer and we have decided we don’t like it and are concentrating our efforts to get away from it. Name an expanding business where your customers are spending time and money to not be customers.

[temeculaguy]

Oil is done, it will have pops but that cat isn’t getting back in the bag. Oil is today’s cigarettes, twenty years ago you would never think cigarette sales domestically would decline but they have the same elements but oil is worse.
1. Oil and cigarettes are bad for you
2. The manufacturers of both are demonized
3. We don’t actually need either we just want both
4. But only oil funds terrorists and transfers wealth out of the country. quitting smoking isn’t patriotic but quitting oil is.

This country makes turns like a aircraft carrier not a pt boat, but it does turn and it is turning against oil. Public opinion has turned, technology is on it’s heels. The tesla and other startups may fail and the prius was just a novel start but the auto industry is heading to entirely oil free because that is what the customers want, in 18 months the volt should arrive from chevy and others will follow, they will keep improving, faster and faster, with each car, oil loses more and the countries that rely on it have no choice but to keep pumping. In ten years cars wont run on gas and much of our electricity is being shifted away from oil (southern california edison claims it’s oil free, they really aren’t since they buy electricity but they are making huge strides not just publicity stunts).

We are the #1 oil consumer and we have decided we don’t like it and are concentrating our efforts to get away from it. Name an expanding business where your customers are spending time and money to not be customers.

[temeculaguy]

Oil is done, it will have pops but that cat isn’t getting back in the bag. Oil is today’s cigarettes, twenty years ago you would never think cigarette sales domestically would decline but they have the same elements but oil is worse.
1. Oil and cigarettes are bad for you
2. The manufacturers of both are demonized
3. We don’t actually need either we just want both
4. But only oil funds terrorists and transfers wealth out of the country. quitting smoking isn’t patriotic but quitting oil is.

This country makes turns like a aircraft carrier not a pt boat, but it does turn and it is turning against oil. Public opinion has turned, technology is on it’s heels. The tesla and other startups may fail and the prius was just a novel start but the auto industry is heading to entirely oil free because that is what the customers want, in 18 months the volt should arrive from chevy and others will follow, they will keep improving, faster and faster, with each car, oil loses more and the countries that rely on it have no choice but to keep pumping. In ten years cars wont run on gas and much of our electricity is being shifted away from oil (southern california edison claims it’s oil free, they really aren’t since they buy electricity but they are making huge strides not just publicity stunts).

We are the #1 oil consumer and we have decided we don’t like it and are concentrating our efforts to get away from it. Name an expanding business where your customers are spending time and money to not be customers.

[temeculaguy]

Oil is done, it will have pops but that cat isn’t getting back in the bag. Oil is today’s cigarettes, twenty years ago you would never think cigarette sales domestically would decline but they have the same elements but oil is worse.
1. Oil and cigarettes are bad for you
2. The manufacturers of both are demonized
3. We don’t actually need either we just want both
4. But only oil funds terrorists and transfers wealth out of the country. quitting smoking isn’t patriotic but quitting oil is.

This country makes turns like a aircraft carrier not a pt boat, but it does turn and it is turning against oil. Public opinion has turned, technology is on it’s heels. The tesla and other startups may fail and the prius was just a novel start but the auto industry is heading to entirely oil free because that is what the customers want, in 18 months the volt should arrive from chevy and others will follow, they will keep improving, faster and faster, with each car, oil loses more and the countries that rely on it have no choice but to keep pumping. In ten years cars wont run on gas and much of our electricity is being shifted away from oil (southern california edison claims it’s oil free, they really aren’t since they buy electricity but they are making huge strides not just publicity stunts).

We are the #1 oil consumer and we have decided we don’t like it and are concentrating our efforts to get away from it. Name an expanding business where your customers are spending time and money to not be customers.

[temeculaguy]

Oil is done, it will have pops but that cat isn’t getting back in the bag. Oil is today’s cigarettes, twenty years ago you would never think cigarette sales domestically would decline but they have the same elements but oil is worse.
1. Oil and cigarettes are bad for you
2. The manufacturers of both are demonized
3. We don’t actually need either we just want both
4. But only oil funds terrorists and transfers wealth out of the country. quitting smoking isn’t patriotic but quitting oil is.

This country makes turns like a aircraft carrier not a pt boat, but it does turn and it is turning against oil. Public opinion has turned, technology is on it’s heels. The tesla and other startups may fail and the prius was just a novel start but the auto industry is heading to entirely oil free because that is what the customers want, in 18 months the volt should arrive from chevy and others will follow, they will keep improving, faster and faster, with each car, oil loses more and the countries that rely on it have no choice but to keep pumping. In ten years cars wont run on gas and much of our electricity is being shifted away from oil (southern california edison claims it’s oil free, they really aren’t since they buy electricity but they are making huge strides not just publicity stunts).

We are the #1 oil consumer and we have decided we don’t like it and are concentrating our efforts to get away from it. Name an expanding business where your customers are spending time and money to not be customers.

[EconProf]

The beautiful thing about the oil price decline is that it is defunding our enemies. Russia, Iran, Venezuela, the middle eastern despots are all hurting, and are now much less likely to poke us in the eye with a sharp stick.
Let’s also congratulate our (relatively) free markets and capitalism in bringing about this happy result. As TG points out, entrepreneurs respond to price signals by innovating, oil companies by drilling (if allowed to), and consumers by conserving. All the actors take time to move, and they understandably wait until a price trend looks long-term. The fear-mongering media and anti-market politicians need to stop bashing capitalism.

[EconProf]

The beautiful thing about the oil price decline is that it is defunding our enemies. Russia, Iran, Venezuela, the middle eastern despots are all hurting, and are now much less likely to poke us in the eye with a sharp stick.
Let’s also congratulate our (relatively) free markets and capitalism in bringing about this happy result. As TG points out, entrepreneurs respond to price signals by innovating, oil companies by drilling (if allowed to), and consumers by conserving. All the actors take time to move, and they understandably wait until a price trend looks long-term. The fear-mongering media and anti-market politicians need to stop bashing capitalism.

[EconProf]

The beautiful thing about the oil price decline is that it is defunding our enemies. Russia, Iran, Venezuela, the middle eastern despots are all hurting, and are now much less likely to poke us in the eye with a sharp stick.
Let’s also congratulate our (relatively) free markets and capitalism in bringing about this happy result. As TG points out, entrepreneurs respond to price signals by innovating, oil companies by drilling (if allowed to), and consumers by conserving. All the actors take time to move, and they understandably wait until a price trend looks long-term. The fear-mongering media and anti-market politicians need to stop bashing capitalism.

[EconProf]

The beautiful thing about the oil price decline is that it is defunding our enemies. Russia, Iran, Venezuela, the middle eastern despots are all hurting, and are now much less likely to poke us in the eye with a sharp stick.
Let’s also congratulate our (relatively) free markets and capitalism in bringing about this happy result. As TG points out, entrepreneurs respond to price signals by innovating, oil companies by drilling (if allowed to), and consumers by conserving. All the actors take time to move, and they understandably wait until a price trend looks long-term. The fear-mongering media and anti-market politicians need to stop bashing capitalism.

[EconProf]

The beautiful thing about the oil price decline is that it is defunding our enemies. Russia, Iran, Venezuela, the middle eastern despots are all hurting, and are now much less likely to poke us in the eye with a sharp stick.
Let’s also congratulate our (relatively) free markets and capitalism in bringing about this happy result. As TG points out, entrepreneurs respond to price signals by innovating, oil companies by drilling (if allowed to), and consumers by conserving. All the actors take time to move, and they understandably wait until a price trend looks long-term. The fear-mongering media and anti-market politicians need to stop bashing capitalism.

[stockstradr]

So who actualy walked-the-talk in this thread and bought OIL stocks?

This initial thread was launched with pretty good timing. Soon after this thread when oil fell below $42, it has climbed since off those lows.

Oil stocks are up 15% to 35% off that low, just in the last week. Good gains! PBR has been a big winner so far, up 35%.

The Million Dollar question is: “Will OPEC drive oil prices from here up above $50/bbl, or $75/bbl and manage to keep oil at those prices or above?”

Or will continued demand-destruction overpower the cuts in supply, sending oil even LOWER, despite OPEC’s planned cuts?

My view is that those who have been burned are those who UNDERESTIMATED how bad this economic downturn will get.

I’m inclined to think oil will move up (on anticipation) ahead of the OPEC cut and then after the cut it will sell off again, because even another 2 Million bbl/day production cut won’t save oil from this continued demand destruction.

There is another temporary demand side effect that won’t last.

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

And people have also talked about a potential supply-side risk: cheating of OPEC members whose government budgets are in big trouble if they reduce output per OPEC quotas (given their oil revenues already way down with price having falling to $43/bbl). So lots of talk of actual world oil supply not pulling back in lock step with OPEC agreed production cuts.

[stockstradr]

So who actualy walked-the-talk in this thread and bought OIL stocks?

This initial thread was launched with pretty good timing. Soon after this thread when oil fell below $42, it has climbed since off those lows.

Oil stocks are up 15% to 35% off that low, just in the last week. Good gains! PBR has been a big winner so far, up 35%.

The Million Dollar question is: “Will OPEC drive oil prices from here up above $50/bbl, or $75/bbl and manage to keep oil at those prices or above?”

Or will continued demand-destruction overpower the cuts in supply, sending oil even LOWER, despite OPEC’s planned cuts?

My view is that those who have been burned are those who UNDERESTIMATED how bad this economic downturn will get.

I’m inclined to think oil will move up (on anticipation) ahead of the OPEC cut and then after the cut it will sell off again, because even another 2 Million bbl/day production cut won’t save oil from this continued demand destruction.

There is another temporary demand side effect that won’t last.

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

And people have also talked about a potential supply-side risk: cheating of OPEC members whose government budgets are in big trouble if they reduce output per OPEC quotas (given their oil revenues already way down with price having falling to $43/bbl). So lots of talk of actual world oil supply not pulling back in lock step with OPEC agreed production cuts.

[stockstradr]

So who actualy walked-the-talk in this thread and bought OIL stocks?

This initial thread was launched with pretty good timing. Soon after this thread when oil fell below $42, it has climbed since off those lows.

Oil stocks are up 15% to 35% off that low, just in the last week. Good gains! PBR has been a big winner so far, up 35%.

The Million Dollar question is: “Will OPEC drive oil prices from here up above $50/bbl, or $75/bbl and manage to keep oil at those prices or above?”

Or will continued demand-destruction overpower the cuts in supply, sending oil even LOWER, despite OPEC’s planned cuts?

My view is that those who have been burned are those who UNDERESTIMATED how bad this economic downturn will get.

I’m inclined to think oil will move up (on anticipation) ahead of the OPEC cut and then after the cut it will sell off again, because even another 2 Million bbl/day production cut won’t save oil from this continued demand destruction.

There is another temporary demand side effect that won’t last.

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

And people have also talked about a potential supply-side risk: cheating of OPEC members whose government budgets are in big trouble if they reduce output per OPEC quotas (given their oil revenues already way down with price having falling to $43/bbl). So lots of talk of actual world oil supply not pulling back in lock step with OPEC agreed production cuts.

[stockstradr]

So who actualy walked-the-talk in this thread and bought OIL stocks?

This initial thread was launched with pretty good timing. Soon after this thread when oil fell below $42, it has climbed since off those lows.

Oil stocks are up 15% to 35% off that low, just in the last week. Good gains! PBR has been a big winner so far, up 35%.

The Million Dollar question is: “Will OPEC drive oil prices from here up above $50/bbl, or $75/bbl and manage to keep oil at those prices or above?”

Or will continued demand-destruction overpower the cuts in supply, sending oil even LOWER, despite OPEC’s planned cuts?

My view is that those who have been burned are those who UNDERESTIMATED how bad this economic downturn will get.

I’m inclined to think oil will move up (on anticipation) ahead of the OPEC cut and then after the cut it will sell off again, because even another 2 Million bbl/day production cut won’t save oil from this continued demand destruction.

There is another temporary demand side effect that won’t last.

Big Players have been lately buying oil at $43/bbl and filling up supertankers, and then PARKING those supertankers in port to wait and much later unload to fill oil futures contracts later at higher prices. This story has been covered on CNBC and others in last 24 hours. This speculative buying involved many millions of bbls of oil, to fill up countless supertankers used as floating warehouses.

And people have also talked about a potential supply-side risk: cheating of OPEC members whose government budgets are in big trouble if they reduce output per OPEC quotas (given their oil revenues already way down with price having falling to $43/bbl). So lots of talk of actual world oil supply not pulling back in lock step with OPEC agreed production cuts.

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