Thoughts on FXE, VWILX?

[Diego Mamani]

In March of this year I had about 70% of my net worth in cash. The rest in retirement accounts. Uneasy about the future of the dollar and the prospect of high inflation, I took almost 25% of my cash holdings and put them into FXE (Euro-denominated ETF that pays dividends) and the Vanguard International Growth Adm (VWILX).

The latter is almost 50% down since then! The FXE is also down. Combined, the two investments have me down by 35% since mid March. Should I bail or stay put? I think VWILX had another big drop just today…

[stockstradr]

Here’s the advice I gave co-workers who were essentially in similar situation. Like countless Americans their 401K/ROTHs were down 40+ percent.

Those are the same co-workers who had received a FIRST and last email from me giving them unsolicited advice on stocks. I sent them that email within THREE DAYS of the Oct 2007 market peak and that email warned them a horrible year was coming for the stock market, and that they should please consider selling all stocks. I told them I was only writing because I hate to see good friends lose money on stocks.

None of them followed my advice (why would they follow unsolicited investment advice anyway), but a year later they remembered that odd email was perfectly timed, and would have saved them hundreds of thousands each.

So a couple months ago several of them asked me (too late) “how do I recover the value of my now trashed 401K?”

It is a fact that I told them: I’m guessing like everyone, and I’m not a financial adviser. But I play one on Piggington.com! Anyway, i recommend you dump everything near the top of the next Fool’s Rally. I think it will top at about 1100, but I think you should dump your mutual funds when you see the S&P500 hit 1,000, just to be safe. Then wait until the market drops again to at least 750 and oil is below $50/bbl, and then buy oil stocks, and also buy gold when it is under $720/ounce.

After I told them that, the markets did have one rally left that took the S&P500 up to 1,000. Glad I told ’em to sell at 1,000 because markets never made it to 1,100.

I doubt this stinking market has another rally in it that will take the S&P500 up to 1,000. This last week’s Fool’s Rally only made it to 900.

I kinda think you gotta trade out of stocks whenever you can, then look for a good entry point to trade into oil and gold. Then hold those long-term. That’s one of the more certain paths to recover your lost riches, but expect to wait 3 to 5 years before both oil and gold are multiples of today’s prices. I also think some international markets (China, for example) will be smart to buy into at their bottom. Yet, I think the bottom of markets like the Chinese stocks is still probably 6-9 months away.

I’m sure we’ll see US stocks slide to 600 or below on the S&P500 by next year. International markets have not bottomed yet either, but some are close. So you want to get the hell out of stocks.

[stockstradr]

Here’s the advice I gave co-workers who were essentially in similar situation. Like countless Americans their 401K/ROTHs were down 40+ percent.

Those are the same co-workers who had received a FIRST and last email from me giving them unsolicited advice on stocks. I sent them that email within THREE DAYS of the Oct 2007 market peak and that email warned them a horrible year was coming for the stock market, and that they should please consider selling all stocks. I told them I was only writing because I hate to see good friends lose money on stocks.

None of them followed my advice (why would they follow unsolicited investment advice anyway), but a year later they remembered that odd email was perfectly timed, and would have saved them hundreds of thousands each.

So a couple months ago several of them asked me (too late) “how do I recover the value of my now trashed 401K?”

It is a fact that I told them: I’m guessing like everyone, and I’m not a financial adviser. But I play one on Piggington.com! Anyway, i recommend you dump everything near the top of the next Fool’s Rally. I think it will top at about 1100, but I think you should dump your mutual funds when you see the S&P500 hit 1,000, just to be safe. Then wait until the market drops again to at least 750 and oil is below $50/bbl, and then buy oil stocks, and also buy gold when it is under $720/ounce.

After I told them that, the markets did have one rally left that took the S&P500 up to 1,000. Glad I told ’em to sell at 1,000 because markets never made it to 1,100.

I doubt this stinking market has another rally in it that will take the S&P500 up to 1,000. This last week’s Fool’s Rally only made it to 900.

I kinda think you gotta trade out of stocks whenever you can, then look for a good entry point to trade into oil and gold. Then hold those long-term. That’s one of the more certain paths to recover your lost riches, but expect to wait 3 to 5 years before both oil and gold are multiples of today’s prices. I also think some international markets (China, for example) will be smart to buy into at their bottom. Yet, I think the bottom of markets like the Chinese stocks is still probably 6-9 months away.

I’m sure we’ll see US stocks slide to 600 or below on the S&P500 by next year. International markets have not bottomed yet either, but some are close. So you want to get the hell out of stocks.

[stockstradr]

Here’s the advice I gave co-workers who were essentially in similar situation. Like countless Americans their 401K/ROTHs were down 40+ percent.

Those are the same co-workers who had received a FIRST and last email from me giving them unsolicited advice on stocks. I sent them that email within THREE DAYS of the Oct 2007 market peak and that email warned them a horrible year was coming for the stock market, and that they should please consider selling all stocks. I told them I was only writing because I hate to see good friends lose money on stocks.

None of them followed my advice (why would they follow unsolicited investment advice anyway), but a year later they remembered that odd email was perfectly timed, and would have saved them hundreds of thousands each.

So a couple months ago several of them asked me (too late) “how do I recover the value of my now trashed 401K?”

It is a fact that I told them: I’m guessing like everyone, and I’m not a financial adviser. But I play one on Piggington.com! Anyway, i recommend you dump everything near the top of the next Fool’s Rally. I think it will top at about 1100, but I think you should dump your mutual funds when you see the S&P500 hit 1,000, just to be safe. Then wait until the market drops again to at least 750 and oil is below $50/bbl, and then buy oil stocks, and also buy gold when it is under $720/ounce.

After I told them that, the markets did have one rally left that took the S&P500 up to 1,000. Glad I told ’em to sell at 1,000 because markets never made it to 1,100.

I doubt this stinking market has another rally in it that will take the S&P500 up to 1,000. This last week’s Fool’s Rally only made it to 900.

I kinda think you gotta trade out of stocks whenever you can, then look for a good entry point to trade into oil and gold. Then hold those long-term. That’s one of the more certain paths to recover your lost riches, but expect to wait 3 to 5 years before both oil and gold are multiples of today’s prices. I also think some international markets (China, for example) will be smart to buy into at their bottom. Yet, I think the bottom of markets like the Chinese stocks is still probably 6-9 months away.

I’m sure we’ll see US stocks slide to 600 or below on the S&P500 by next year. International markets have not bottomed yet either, but some are close. So you want to get the hell out of stocks.

[stockstradr]

Here’s the advice I gave co-workers who were essentially in similar situation. Like countless Americans their 401K/ROTHs were down 40+ percent.

Those are the same co-workers who had received a FIRST and last email from me giving them unsolicited advice on stocks. I sent them that email within THREE DAYS of the Oct 2007 market peak and that email warned them a horrible year was coming for the stock market, and that they should please consider selling all stocks. I told them I was only writing because I hate to see good friends lose money on stocks.

None of them followed my advice (why would they follow unsolicited investment advice anyway), but a year later they remembered that odd email was perfectly timed, and would have saved them hundreds of thousands each.

So a couple months ago several of them asked me (too late) “how do I recover the value of my now trashed 401K?”

It is a fact that I told them: I’m guessing like everyone, and I’m not a financial adviser. But I play one on Piggington.com! Anyway, i recommend you dump everything near the top of the next Fool’s Rally. I think it will top at about 1100, but I think you should dump your mutual funds when you see the S&P500 hit 1,000, just to be safe. Then wait until the market drops again to at least 750 and oil is below $50/bbl, and then buy oil stocks, and also buy gold when it is under $720/ounce.

After I told them that, the markets did have one rally left that took the S&P500 up to 1,000. Glad I told ’em to sell at 1,000 because markets never made it to 1,100.

I doubt this stinking market has another rally in it that will take the S&P500 up to 1,000. This last week’s Fool’s Rally only made it to 900.

I kinda think you gotta trade out of stocks whenever you can, then look for a good entry point to trade into oil and gold. Then hold those long-term. That’s one of the more certain paths to recover your lost riches, but expect to wait 3 to 5 years before both oil and gold are multiples of today’s prices. I also think some international markets (China, for example) will be smart to buy into at their bottom. Yet, I think the bottom of markets like the Chinese stocks is still probably 6-9 months away.

I’m sure we’ll see US stocks slide to 600 or below on the S&P500 by next year. International markets have not bottomed yet either, but some are close. So you want to get the hell out of stocks.

[stockstradr]

Here’s the advice I gave co-workers who were essentially in similar situation. Like countless Americans their 401K/ROTHs were down 40+ percent.

Those are the same co-workers who had received a FIRST and last email from me giving them unsolicited advice on stocks. I sent them that email within THREE DAYS of the Oct 2007 market peak and that email warned them a horrible year was coming for the stock market, and that they should please consider selling all stocks. I told them I was only writing because I hate to see good friends lose money on stocks.

None of them followed my advice (why would they follow unsolicited investment advice anyway), but a year later they remembered that odd email was perfectly timed, and would have saved them hundreds of thousands each.

So a couple months ago several of them asked me (too late) “how do I recover the value of my now trashed 401K?”

It is a fact that I told them: I’m guessing like everyone, and I’m not a financial adviser. But I play one on Piggington.com! Anyway, i recommend you dump everything near the top of the next Fool’s Rally. I think it will top at about 1100, but I think you should dump your mutual funds when you see the S&P500 hit 1,000, just to be safe. Then wait until the market drops again to at least 750 and oil is below $50/bbl, and then buy oil stocks, and also buy gold when it is under $720/ounce.

After I told them that, the markets did have one rally left that took the S&P500 up to 1,000. Glad I told ’em to sell at 1,000 because markets never made it to 1,100.

I doubt this stinking market has another rally in it that will take the S&P500 up to 1,000. This last week’s Fool’s Rally only made it to 900.

I kinda think you gotta trade out of stocks whenever you can, then look for a good entry point to trade into oil and gold. Then hold those long-term. That’s one of the more certain paths to recover your lost riches, but expect to wait 3 to 5 years before both oil and gold are multiples of today’s prices. I also think some international markets (China, for example) will be smart to buy into at their bottom. Yet, I think the bottom of markets like the Chinese stocks is still probably 6-9 months away.

I’m sure we’ll see US stocks slide to 600 or below on the S&P500 by next year. International markets have not bottomed yet either, but some are close. So you want to get the hell out of stocks.

[MadeInTaiwan]

Don’t know about gold, but I agree that oil long term will be high. However, I would caution against simply buying oil stock. The reason is that big Oil is in trouble. Their bookable reserves (reserves that they control) are not being replenished. The reason is more and more new fields are being controlled by states (like Russia, Velenzuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, former Soviet states in the ‘Stan area). Read up the blog by Josh Levin at oilandglory.com. If current trends holds (who knows, the low prices could break the Sovereign oil companies) Oil multinationals will either adapt to oil service companies or die.

By the way, there are some sign that before inflation, we might face deflation if ressession depens into full blown depression. In that case our debt is even more onerous.

My worthless $0.02

[MadeInTaiwan]

Don’t know about gold, but I agree that oil long term will be high. However, I would caution against simply buying oil stock. The reason is that big Oil is in trouble. Their bookable reserves (reserves that they control) are not being replenished. The reason is more and more new fields are being controlled by states (like Russia, Velenzuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, former Soviet states in the ‘Stan area). Read up the blog by Josh Levin at oilandglory.com. If current trends holds (who knows, the low prices could break the Sovereign oil companies) Oil multinationals will either adapt to oil service companies or die.

By the way, there are some sign that before inflation, we might face deflation if ressession depens into full blown depression. In that case our debt is even more onerous.

My worthless $0.02

[MadeInTaiwan]

Don’t know about gold, but I agree that oil long term will be high. However, I would caution against simply buying oil stock. The reason is that big Oil is in trouble. Their bookable reserves (reserves that they control) are not being replenished. The reason is more and more new fields are being controlled by states (like Russia, Velenzuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, former Soviet states in the ‘Stan area). Read up the blog by Josh Levin at oilandglory.com. If current trends holds (who knows, the low prices could break the Sovereign oil companies) Oil multinationals will either adapt to oil service companies or die.

By the way, there are some sign that before inflation, we might face deflation if ressession depens into full blown depression. In that case our debt is even more onerous.

My worthless $0.02

[MadeInTaiwan]

Don’t know about gold, but I agree that oil long term will be high. However, I would caution against simply buying oil stock. The reason is that big Oil is in trouble. Their bookable reserves (reserves that they control) are not being replenished. The reason is more and more new fields are being controlled by states (like Russia, Velenzuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, former Soviet states in the ‘Stan area). Read up the blog by Josh Levin at oilandglory.com. If current trends holds (who knows, the low prices could break the Sovereign oil companies) Oil multinationals will either adapt to oil service companies or die.

By the way, there are some sign that before inflation, we might face deflation if ressession depens into full blown depression. In that case our debt is even more onerous.

My worthless $0.02

[MadeInTaiwan]

Don’t know about gold, but I agree that oil long term will be high. However, I would caution against simply buying oil stock. The reason is that big Oil is in trouble. Their bookable reserves (reserves that they control) are not being replenished. The reason is more and more new fields are being controlled by states (like Russia, Velenzuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, former Soviet states in the ‘Stan area). Read up the blog by Josh Levin at oilandglory.com. If current trends holds (who knows, the low prices could break the Sovereign oil companies) Oil multinationals will either adapt to oil service companies or die.

By the way, there are some sign that before inflation, we might face deflation if ressession depens into full blown depression. In that case our debt is even more onerous.

My worthless $0.02

[stockstradr]

Think again regards Big Oil versus small oil companies.

What do you think will happen to the small oil companies (also bigger players with high extraction costs, such as shale oil) when this recession keeps oil prices under $75 for an extended period?

They cannot make money at these current oil prices. Yet Big Oil can make money even when oil prices are low, due to benefits of economy of massive scale. This theme has been discussed many times on Bloomberg/CNBC. Small oil is already getting hammered much harder on stock price than we see with Big Oil.

we might face deflation

We MIGHT face it? Have you read the paper lately? CPI shows we are already into deflationary period. I should note that I do not expect gold to appreciate significantly during this deflationary phase for the overall economy.

[stockstradr]

Think again regards Big Oil versus small oil companies.

What do you think will happen to the small oil companies (also bigger players with high extraction costs, such as shale oil) when this recession keeps oil prices under $75 for an extended period?

They cannot make money at these current oil prices. Yet Big Oil can make money even when oil prices are low, due to benefits of economy of massive scale. This theme has been discussed many times on Bloomberg/CNBC. Small oil is already getting hammered much harder on stock price than we see with Big Oil.

we might face deflation

We MIGHT face it? Have you read the paper lately? CPI shows we are already into deflationary period. I should note that I do not expect gold to appreciate significantly during this deflationary phase for the overall economy.

[stockstradr]

Think again regards Big Oil versus small oil companies.

What do you think will happen to the small oil companies (also bigger players with high extraction costs, such as shale oil) when this recession keeps oil prices under $75 for an extended period?

They cannot make money at these current oil prices. Yet Big Oil can make money even when oil prices are low, due to benefits of economy of massive scale. This theme has been discussed many times on Bloomberg/CNBC. Small oil is already getting hammered much harder on stock price than we see with Big Oil.

we might face deflation

We MIGHT face it? Have you read the paper lately? CPI shows we are already into deflationary period. I should note that I do not expect gold to appreciate significantly during this deflationary phase for the overall economy.

[stockstradr]

Think again regards Big Oil versus small oil companies.

What do you think will happen to the small oil companies (also bigger players with high extraction costs, such as shale oil) when this recession keeps oil prices under $75 for an extended period?

They cannot make money at these current oil prices. Yet Big Oil can make money even when oil prices are low, due to benefits of economy of massive scale. This theme has been discussed many times on Bloomberg/CNBC. Small oil is already getting hammered much harder on stock price than we see with Big Oil.

we might face deflation

We MIGHT face it? Have you read the paper lately? CPI shows we are already into deflationary period. I should note that I do not expect gold to appreciate significantly during this deflationary phase for the overall economy.

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