There will be blood: Niall Ferguson

[equalizer]

Great interview with Niall. (tip to Alan for recommending Niall’s book Ascent of Money”)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090223.wferguson0223/BNStory/crashandrecovery/home

Paul Kedrosky runs the blog Infectious Greed. (La Jolla venture investor, has appeared on CNBC)

Paul also quotes Niall here:

“First, banks that are de facto insolvent need to be restructured, a word that is preferable to the old-fashioned nationalisation. Existing shareholders will have to face that they have lost their money. Too bad; they should have kept a more vigilant eye on the people running their banks.

The second step we need to take is a generalised conversion of American mortgages to lower interest rates and longer maturities. About 2.3 million US households face foreclosure and that number is certain to rise. For example, $US97 billion of $US200 billion of option adjustable-rate mortgages will reset in the next two years. The average monthly payment will increase by more than 60 per cent. As a result, up to eight million households could be driven into foreclosure, driving down home prices even further. Few of those affected have any realistic prospect of refinancing at more affordable rates. So, once again, what is needed is state intervention.’

Niall is a conservative, yet he states that we have no choice but to nationalize banks and reduce mortgages. He is the financial historian, so he must really be worried to push this!

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/03/01/niall_ferguson_4.html

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Equalizer: Ferguson has several other titles that I think you’d find interesting. He’s written extensively on the British Empire and the American hegemony that followed. My three favorites are “The Pity of War” (revisionist history of WWI), “Empire” (rise and fall of the British Empire) and “Colossus” (rise and fall of the American Empire).

I’d also strongly recommend visiting his website at: http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/Home.aspx?pageid=1. Some very interesting articles there, as well as links to other sites.

I just finished “The Ascent of Money” a couple of weeks back. It’s a little uneven, but a fascinating read nonetheless.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Equalizer: Ferguson has several other titles that I think you’d find interesting. He’s written extensively on the British Empire and the American hegemony that followed. My three favorites are “The Pity of War” (revisionist history of WWI), “Empire” (rise and fall of the British Empire) and “Colossus” (rise and fall of the American Empire).

I’d also strongly recommend visiting his website at: http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/Home.aspx?pageid=1. Some very interesting articles there, as well as links to other sites.

I just finished “The Ascent of Money” a couple of weeks back. It’s a little uneven, but a fascinating read nonetheless.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Equalizer: Ferguson has several other titles that I think you’d find interesting. He’s written extensively on the British Empire and the American hegemony that followed. My three favorites are “The Pity of War” (revisionist history of WWI), “Empire” (rise and fall of the British Empire) and “Colossus” (rise and fall of the American Empire).

I’d also strongly recommend visiting his website at: http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/Home.aspx?pageid=1. Some very interesting articles there, as well as links to other sites.

I just finished “The Ascent of Money” a couple of weeks back. It’s a little uneven, but a fascinating read nonetheless.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Equalizer: Ferguson has several other titles that I think you’d find interesting. He’s written extensively on the British Empire and the American hegemony that followed. My three favorites are “The Pity of War” (revisionist history of WWI), “Empire” (rise and fall of the British Empire) and “Colossus” (rise and fall of the American Empire).

I’d also strongly recommend visiting his website at: http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/Home.aspx?pageid=1. Some very interesting articles there, as well as links to other sites.

I just finished “The Ascent of Money” a couple of weeks back. It’s a little uneven, but a fascinating read nonetheless.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Equalizer: Ferguson has several other titles that I think you’d find interesting. He’s written extensively on the British Empire and the American hegemony that followed. My three favorites are “The Pity of War” (revisionist history of WWI), “Empire” (rise and fall of the British Empire) and “Colossus” (rise and fall of the American Empire).

I’d also strongly recommend visiting his website at: http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/Home.aspx?pageid=1. Some very interesting articles there, as well as links to other sites.

I just finished “The Ascent of Money” a couple of weeks back. It’s a little uneven, but a fascinating read nonetheless.

[gandalf]

For the record, I’m frustrated that Geithner and Summers have become so influential. I consider it to be a real failure of the Obama administration out of the gate. It’s really unfortunate what’s happening.

Geithner/Summers were principals in the crowd that got us into this mess, and now they’re leading Obama’s economic policy, which is overly conservative and deferential to the financial establishment.

In all fairness, the alternative to Obama would have been McCain and our Treasury Secretary would have been Phil Gramm. That speaks for itself. (Good God, is it possible Hillary would have been better?)

[gandalf]

For the record, I’m frustrated that Geithner and Summers have become so influential. I consider it to be a real failure of the Obama administration out of the gate. It’s really unfortunate what’s happening.

Geithner/Summers were principals in the crowd that got us into this mess, and now they’re leading Obama’s economic policy, which is overly conservative and deferential to the financial establishment.

In all fairness, the alternative to Obama would have been McCain and our Treasury Secretary would have been Phil Gramm. That speaks for itself. (Good God, is it possible Hillary would have been better?)

[gandalf]

For the record, I’m frustrated that Geithner and Summers have become so influential. I consider it to be a real failure of the Obama administration out of the gate. It’s really unfortunate what’s happening.

Geithner/Summers were principals in the crowd that got us into this mess, and now they’re leading Obama’s economic policy, which is overly conservative and deferential to the financial establishment.

In all fairness, the alternative to Obama would have been McCain and our Treasury Secretary would have been Phil Gramm. That speaks for itself. (Good God, is it possible Hillary would have been better?)

[gandalf]

For the record, I’m frustrated that Geithner and Summers have become so influential. I consider it to be a real failure of the Obama administration out of the gate. It’s really unfortunate what’s happening.

Geithner/Summers were principals in the crowd that got us into this mess, and now they’re leading Obama’s economic policy, which is overly conservative and deferential to the financial establishment.

In all fairness, the alternative to Obama would have been McCain and our Treasury Secretary would have been Phil Gramm. That speaks for itself. (Good God, is it possible Hillary would have been better?)

[gandalf]

For the record, I’m frustrated that Geithner and Summers have become so influential. I consider it to be a real failure of the Obama administration out of the gate. It’s really unfortunate what’s happening.

Geithner/Summers were principals in the crowd that got us into this mess, and now they’re leading Obama’s economic policy, which is overly conservative and deferential to the financial establishment.

In all fairness, the alternative to Obama would have been McCain and our Treasury Secretary would have been Phil Gramm. That speaks for itself. (Good God, is it possible Hillary would have been better?)

[patientrenter]

Niall Ferguson, Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, and Ben Bernanke all share at least one goal:

Maintain asset prices, especially home prices, well above their free market level, by any and all means necessary. This includes massive taxpayer-funded intervention, as current subsidies, or as future subsidies (aka loan repayment guarantees).

Almost all homeowners support this. That’s over 60% of our population, and a higher % of voters, so 80-99% of politicians support it. Almost all company managers – and therefore their lobbyists – support it, because switching to a lower asset price regime would put us through a (temporary) recession that would put them in danger.

So hearing a chorus of people from a broad spectrum, including Niall Ferguson, vote for asset price supports (e.g. gobs of cheap money) is not a sign of the policy’s ultimate economic effectiveness. It’s just a sign that a lot of people’s ox will be gored in the short run by the alternatives, and most people are driven by their personal short-run outlook.

[patientrenter]

Niall Ferguson, Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, and Ben Bernanke all share at least one goal:

Maintain asset prices, especially home prices, well above their free market level, by any and all means necessary. This includes massive taxpayer-funded intervention, as current subsidies, or as future subsidies (aka loan repayment guarantees).

Almost all homeowners support this. That’s over 60% of our population, and a higher % of voters, so 80-99% of politicians support it. Almost all company managers – and therefore their lobbyists – support it, because switching to a lower asset price regime would put us through a (temporary) recession that would put them in danger.

So hearing a chorus of people from a broad spectrum, including Niall Ferguson, vote for asset price supports (e.g. gobs of cheap money) is not a sign of the policy’s ultimate economic effectiveness. It’s just a sign that a lot of people’s ox will be gored in the short run by the alternatives, and most people are driven by their personal short-run outlook.

[patientrenter]

Niall Ferguson, Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, and Ben Bernanke all share at least one goal:

Maintain asset prices, especially home prices, well above their free market level, by any and all means necessary. This includes massive taxpayer-funded intervention, as current subsidies, or as future subsidies (aka loan repayment guarantees).

Almost all homeowners support this. That’s over 60% of our population, and a higher % of voters, so 80-99% of politicians support it. Almost all company managers – and therefore their lobbyists – support it, because switching to a lower asset price regime would put us through a (temporary) recession that would put them in danger.

So hearing a chorus of people from a broad spectrum, including Niall Ferguson, vote for asset price supports (e.g. gobs of cheap money) is not a sign of the policy’s ultimate economic effectiveness. It’s just a sign that a lot of people’s ox will be gored in the short run by the alternatives, and most people are driven by their personal short-run outlook.

[patientrenter]

Niall Ferguson, Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, and Ben Bernanke all share at least one goal:

Maintain asset prices, especially home prices, well above their free market level, by any and all means necessary. This includes massive taxpayer-funded intervention, as current subsidies, or as future subsidies (aka loan repayment guarantees).

Almost all homeowners support this. That’s over 60% of our population, and a higher % of voters, so 80-99% of politicians support it. Almost all company managers – and therefore their lobbyists – support it, because switching to a lower asset price regime would put us through a (temporary) recession that would put them in danger.

So hearing a chorus of people from a broad spectrum, including Niall Ferguson, vote for asset price supports (e.g. gobs of cheap money) is not a sign of the policy’s ultimate economic effectiveness. It’s just a sign that a lot of people’s ox will be gored in the short run by the alternatives, and most people are driven by their personal short-run outlook.

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