The Short Sale Monitor

[Artifact]

I threw those plots together relatively quickly at work – I will clean them up for next weeks numbers – but looking at them again the increase in short Sales has been pretty astounding – almost doubled in 4 months – but more interesting, I think, is that despite the week-to-week changes being all over the map, the change in short sales has been slightly higher than the change in total litstings every week (even when oth are negative) resulting in the nearly linear increase in the percent of listings that are short sales (the green line).

Of course all of that has the error inherent in the method of collecting this data – which all comes from sdcellar’s posts in this thread by the way (don’t want to steal any credit other than making a plot of data provided by others).

[sdcellar]

Man! I’d like to take credit for something, but I think you meant to credit sdrealtor and not me.

I suppose I can find some solace in it being some sort of Freudian slip? Perhaps you find value in some of the things I post, but it’s just hard to uncover any actual evidence of it!

[Artifact]

Oops – as you said, I meant to credit sdrealtor – sorry about that!

So many “sd” something’s around here, you would think we live in San Deigo or something…That is what I get for trying to post things late, for me at least, at night.

[sdrealtor]

Update time! This one’s for you LBC.

“Folks…we are only 21% of the way through 2007. Nearly 80% of the year awaits and I project it gets much, much worse before it gets any better. Have faith, will ya?”

Short sales 1,635 heading up again from 1,566 last week!

Total SD County Listings 15,393 essentially unchaged from 15,317 last week.

In the North County Coastal market that I watch closely, Inventory is DROPPING right now! It is nearly 20% lower than last year while pending are stable or higher. Here are the numbers for detached homes in 92009, 92011 and 92024.

438 SFR’s active the 1st week in April compared to 524 in 2006 and 282 in 2005. 186 SFR’s in escrow the 1st week in April compared to 176 in 2006 and 192 in 2005.

March closings of resale homes (I pull out the builder sales) were 90 last year and 89 reported so far for this year. Throw in a few late reporters and sales volume wil be up this year in my area. I’m sure the rest of SD is not seeing the same thing though.

[Artifact]

Here are the new plots – I cleaned up the axes a little, but if anyone has suggestions for improvement in clarity I can try and include them.

Again – apologies to sdrealtor for the improper credit of the data!

[img_assist|nid=3017|title= Short and Total Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=377][img_assist|nid=3018|title= Percent Change and Percent Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=377]

[CarlsbadMtnBiker]

Thanks sdrealtor ! as always for the interesting short sale and overall listing numbers, but especially for adding the stuff on our little corner of the county – north county coastal.

CMB

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, I think my area will eventually get hit harder than it has been but that it will just take another year or two.

[Artifact]

To clarify – the green line in the second plot I posted is the percent of the listings that are short sales – I labelled that axis Percent change, which is referring to the change in short sales and total listings.

I do find the near linear increase in the percent of sales that are short to be really interesting given the variability in the the rate of change in short sales and total listings individually.

[CarlsbadMtnBiker]

Thanks sdrealtor ! as always for the interesting short sale and overall listing numbers, but especially for adding the stuff on our little corner of the county – north county coastal.

CMB

——-

thanks to Artifact as well.

[CarlsbadMtnBiker]

sdrealtor,

why would your area (north county coastal) get hit harder and why would it be delayed?

Also, somewhat off topic, ..but do you have any thoughts about the La Costa Oaks area?(Rancho Santa Fe & La Costa Ave) I heard the city has big plans to put a “La Costa Town Square” right in the middle of it with high end restaurants, outdoor amphitheater, outdoor mall, etc.

Do you think something like that would generally help property values? I know your focus may be further south but thought you might have some insight.

-CMB

[sdrealtor]

CMB,
To clarify I think the NCC area will get hit harder than it has been of late but not as hard as other areas. I believe everything is connected like Bugs and at some point less desireable areas become cheap enough that buyers cannot disregard a much better buying opportunity. Sooner or later everyone has to step in line to some extent and NCC will just take a bit longer due to the relative financial strength of current owners as well as the future steady influx of well off transferees that would like to live here.

I know LC Oaks well and actually considered moving there. There were only 4 lots in the entire project that I would consider and even though I was in single digits on the waiting list, friends and family types of the builder were able to snag the super primo lots that I would have moved for kinda like Liberty Station. As it is, I’m very happy where I am and think they probably did me a favor.

LC Town Square when its built will be fabulous and I actually have an indirect connection to the developer so I know a fair bit about what is coming. In general I think it will bring up the profile of the surrounding areas in addition to LC Oaks. It can only help property values in the area though I suspect there will be lots of NIMBY oppposition from LC Oaks folks.

After all is said and done, I loved the houses in LCO’s but didnt feel like it would ever establish itself as a strong community which I value. I also spent alot of time driving around there and the soil conditions are awful. Boulders the size of a VW bug abound under the grading, expansive soil and more. I drove down one street there and it looked like every driveway had to be re-poured 6 months after they were put in. Also, i’m just not one to get caught up in the bigger/better crowd. I’d rather spend more time with the kids, vacation more and enjoy what time I have left on this planet!

[CarlsbadMtnBiker]

Thanks sdrealtor,

What you say makes alot of sense about NCC. Appreciate your thoughts on LC Oaks. I agree that it does seem to be missing that strong community feel so far. I have also visited San Elijo Hills and it seems to have more of that sense of community than LC Oaks.

Anyways, thanks for going off subject a little on this with me.

Hope you have a great week and I’ll be looking for your update next week ! 🙂

-CMB

[sdrealtor]

Short sales 1,705 heading up again from 1,635 last week!

Total SD County Listings 15,733 a decent climb from 15,393 last week. We are in tax season so this should be a couple of quiet weeks. I’d expect a slight climb in inventory the next couple weeks and then the fun begins around May 1st with the biggest surge in inventory expected in June.

In the North County Coastal market that I watch closely, Inventory ticked up slightly this week while pendings dropped slightly. The increase in listings is about what you’d expect for the season and the decline in pendings probably represents the late reporting of March EOM closings.

448 SFR’s active the 2nd week in April compared to 541 in 2006 and 273 in 2005. 183 SFR’s in escrow the 1st week in April compared to 170 in 2006 and 192 in 2005.

We are getting closer to a final number for March closings of resale homes (I pull out the builder sales) were 90 last year and 93 reported so far for this year.

For the county watchers in the audience, there were 2,006 sales in 2006 and so far there have been 1,491 reported for 2007 in March. We are clearly seeing a separation between different geographical areas response to the housing market.

[sdrealtor]

To follow up on a topic from last week. Every week I see more signs of distress in the newest communities. LC Oaks is starting to see more and more sellers in possible distress situations as toxic loans begin to reach the boiling poin there. As a side note, I know many people living there and they should all be fine but there are lots of folks I dont there who probably arent. Bressi and LC Greens are too new to show signs as toxic loans are still just simmering there. To the contrary, the communities built prior to 2004 are faring very well.

[PD]

Thanks for your updates. I look forward to them.

[Author]

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