The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[Rt.66]

Fair enough. By your antagonistic approach to me I assumed you were a realtor. Sorry.

Thanks for giving some actual opinions that’s a rare commodity around here on some hot topic threads.

What exactly do you mean when you ask “where is the shadow inventory?”

Are you asking me where as in “please provide addresses for 10,000 plus distressed SD homes” (shadow)?

You can go to RealQuest and get the street names is that good enough for you?

There are houses near me that don’t show on RealQuest or RealtyTrac and have been empty for years, (yes years) but if you drove around the hood you would probably not be able to identify them nor would people who drive by them all the time.

If a neighbor 5 houses down from you stopped paying his mortgage 6 months ago and the banks have not filed a NOD then neither you nor I could find it even on RealQuest.

I guess what I am saying is that even with all you can find on ReaQuest, a majority of the homes probably are not easily discerned from the outside as being in a stage of foreclosure. Many still have people living in them. Many are kept up by the banks because they get fined if they don’t.

So if you are insinuating that because you or your 4 year old can’t “see” them that that somehow undermines the validity of their existence then I give up.

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdcellar]Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory………

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are)?[/quote]

And yes I did already address this several times in this thread. Here is a handy and easy link from page 1, you can click on it and you and your 4 year old can look at pretty pictures of “where they’re piling up”.

http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapSearch.aspx?address=san%20diego%2C%20CA#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

Thanks for not taking the time to actually read the thread and instead, challenging me to repeat myself. You would have gotten through about a whole half a page before you got your answer. So not cool!

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdcellar]Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory………

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are)?[/quote]

And yes I did already address this several times in this thread. Here is a handy and easy link from page 1, you can click on it and you and your 4 year old can look at pretty pictures of “where they’re piling up”.

http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapSearch.aspx?address=san%20diego%2C%20CA#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

Thanks for not taking the time to actually read the thread and instead, challenging me to repeat myself. You would have gotten through about a whole half a page before you got your answer. So not cool!

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdcellar]Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory………

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are)?[/quote]

And yes I did already address this several times in this thread. Here is a handy and easy link from page 1, you can click on it and you and your 4 year old can look at pretty pictures of “where they’re piling up”.

http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapSearch.aspx?address=san%20diego%2C%20CA#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

Thanks for not taking the time to actually read the thread and instead, challenging me to repeat myself. You would have gotten through about a whole half a page before you got your answer. So not cool!

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdcellar]Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory………

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are)?[/quote]

And yes I did already address this several times in this thread. Here is a handy and easy link from page 1, you can click on it and you and your 4 year old can look at pretty pictures of “where they’re piling up”.

http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapSearch.aspx?address=san%20diego%2C%20CA#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

Thanks for not taking the time to actually read the thread and instead, challenging me to repeat myself. You would have gotten through about a whole half a page before you got your answer. So not cool!

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdcellar]Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory………

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are)?[/quote]

And yes I did already address this several times in this thread. Here is a handy and easy link from page 1, you can click on it and you and your 4 year old can look at pretty pictures of “where they’re piling up”.

http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/MapSearch/MapSearch.aspx?address=san%20diego%2C%20CA#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

Thanks for not taking the time to actually read the thread and instead, challenging me to repeat myself. You would have gotten through about a whole half a page before you got your answer. So not cool!

[CA renter]

Rt. 66,

FWIW, I really do enjoy your posts, and don’t find them offensive. It appears to me that you are seeing and hearing things that indicate there is a lot of shadow inventory out there, and many of us agree with you. The problem is that we can give anecdotes about people who are not paying for months or years without receiving a NOD, but we cannot bring numbers to the table. IMHO, this is 100% intentional, as the PTB do not want us to know the numbers. Right now, ignorance is bliss, and opaque markets make this ignorance possible.

Just know that you are not alone in your doubts.

[CA renter]

Rt. 66,

FWIW, I really do enjoy your posts, and don’t find them offensive. It appears to me that you are seeing and hearing things that indicate there is a lot of shadow inventory out there, and many of us agree with you. The problem is that we can give anecdotes about people who are not paying for months or years without receiving a NOD, but we cannot bring numbers to the table. IMHO, this is 100% intentional, as the PTB do not want us to know the numbers. Right now, ignorance is bliss, and opaque markets make this ignorance possible.

Just know that you are not alone in your doubts.

[CA renter]

Rt. 66,

FWIW, I really do enjoy your posts, and don’t find them offensive. It appears to me that you are seeing and hearing things that indicate there is a lot of shadow inventory out there, and many of us agree with you. The problem is that we can give anecdotes about people who are not paying for months or years without receiving a NOD, but we cannot bring numbers to the table. IMHO, this is 100% intentional, as the PTB do not want us to know the numbers. Right now, ignorance is bliss, and opaque markets make this ignorance possible.

Just know that you are not alone in your doubts.

[CA renter]

Rt. 66,

FWIW, I really do enjoy your posts, and don’t find them offensive. It appears to me that you are seeing and hearing things that indicate there is a lot of shadow inventory out there, and many of us agree with you. The problem is that we can give anecdotes about people who are not paying for months or years without receiving a NOD, but we cannot bring numbers to the table. IMHO, this is 100% intentional, as the PTB do not want us to know the numbers. Right now, ignorance is bliss, and opaque markets make this ignorance possible.

Just know that you are not alone in your doubts.

[CA renter]

Rt. 66,

FWIW, I really do enjoy your posts, and don’t find them offensive. It appears to me that you are seeing and hearing things that indicate there is a lot of shadow inventory out there, and many of us agree with you. The problem is that we can give anecdotes about people who are not paying for months or years without receiving a NOD, but we cannot bring numbers to the table. IMHO, this is 100% intentional, as the PTB do not want us to know the numbers. Right now, ignorance is bliss, and opaque markets make this ignorance possible.

Just know that you are not alone in your doubts.

[jpinpb]

Rt.66 – I think that sdceller is asking what I’ve been saying. The stealth/shadow inventory is out there and real. The question is when/how it will be absorbed or disposed of. When will it hit the market, if ever, or are the banks waiting for inflation to hit or a meteor or some other equally ridiculous thing to happen.

[jpinpb]

Rt.66 – I think that sdceller is asking what I’ve been saying. The stealth/shadow inventory is out there and real. The question is when/how it will be absorbed or disposed of. When will it hit the market, if ever, or are the banks waiting for inflation to hit or a meteor or some other equally ridiculous thing to happen.

[jpinpb]

Rt.66 – I think that sdceller is asking what I’ve been saying. The stealth/shadow inventory is out there and real. The question is when/how it will be absorbed or disposed of. When will it hit the market, if ever, or are the banks waiting for inflation to hit or a meteor or some other equally ridiculous thing to happen.

[jpinpb]

Rt.66 – I think that sdceller is asking what I’ve been saying. The stealth/shadow inventory is out there and real. The question is when/how it will be absorbed or disposed of. When will it hit the market, if ever, or are the banks waiting for inflation to hit or a meteor or some other equally ridiculous thing to happen.

[Author]

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