The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[NotCranky]

[quote=scaredycat]it’s all actually kind of interesting.

was housing this dramatic and interesting back in the old days?

Was buying a house seen as a big gamble, or was it just a pretty safe, conservative thing? when did that change, if it did?

Seems like it chouldn’t be viewed as much more than a savings account. Would be nice to be able to just buy a place and not view it as atremendous economic gamble.[/quote]

It’s not just the economic gamble,I think a lot of people think that they are their house, so the more the better obviously. People who would glob on to more tended to also be the ones who would do it even though they could not reasonably afford it . People did take big risks to have an excess of house and decor. Millions did it not because they thought they could get rich from it but because they wanted it. Sure they consoled themselves with the dream that it was a good investment. People are still sitting around on blogs like this just waiting to buy too much house a little cheaper with a little more down than the last batch of fools did. Not everybody of course.

[NotCranky]

Rt.66, I agree with you on your take about the free passes and all. This is as much a cliquey sales and marketing blog as any of the other multi-functions it performs. It is tolerated. I am pretty sure many people even like it. For the same reason it is not a gut check honesty forum even though Rich keeps his front page very clean except when the realtors bias it up.

You could be right or you could be wrong and I think you will be wrong A lot. Remember when Norris said houses were going to drop 20% across the board and we debated that. You lost that one big time right? I don’t see you coming around nicely saying you were incorrect and you won’t after the market doesn’t nominally tank either. It works both ways.

Several people have taken your role and faded away after years of lengthy and sometimes hostile debate.( I am not innocent in all of this). You are the perfect foil for the heavy hitter salesmen. Give them every opportunity to work it. The realtors are also giving lots of good information in the infomercial mix and no one wants that to stop including me.

[NotCranky]

Rt.66, I agree with you on your take about the free passes and all. This is as much a cliquey sales and marketing blog as any of the other multi-functions it performs. It is tolerated. I am pretty sure many people even like it. For the same reason it is not a gut check honesty forum even though Rich keeps his front page very clean except when the realtors bias it up.

You could be right or you could be wrong and I think you will be wrong A lot. Remember when Norris said houses were going to drop 20% across the board and we debated that. You lost that one big time right? I don’t see you coming around nicely saying you were incorrect and you won’t after the market doesn’t nominally tank either. It works both ways.

Several people have taken your role and faded away after years of lengthy and sometimes hostile debate.( I am not innocent in all of this). You are the perfect foil for the heavy hitter salesmen. Give them every opportunity to work it. The realtors are also giving lots of good information in the infomercial mix and no one wants that to stop including me.

[NotCranky]

Rt.66, I agree with you on your take about the free passes and all. This is as much a cliquey sales and marketing blog as any of the other multi-functions it performs. It is tolerated. I am pretty sure many people even like it. For the same reason it is not a gut check honesty forum even though Rich keeps his front page very clean except when the realtors bias it up.

You could be right or you could be wrong and I think you will be wrong A lot. Remember when Norris said houses were going to drop 20% across the board and we debated that. You lost that one big time right? I don’t see you coming around nicely saying you were incorrect and you won’t after the market doesn’t nominally tank either. It works both ways.

Several people have taken your role and faded away after years of lengthy and sometimes hostile debate.( I am not innocent in all of this). You are the perfect foil for the heavy hitter salesmen. Give them every opportunity to work it. The realtors are also giving lots of good information in the infomercial mix and no one wants that to stop including me.

[NotCranky]

Rt.66, I agree with you on your take about the free passes and all. This is as much a cliquey sales and marketing blog as any of the other multi-functions it performs. It is tolerated. I am pretty sure many people even like it. For the same reason it is not a gut check honesty forum even though Rich keeps his front page very clean except when the realtors bias it up.

You could be right or you could be wrong and I think you will be wrong A lot. Remember when Norris said houses were going to drop 20% across the board and we debated that. You lost that one big time right? I don’t see you coming around nicely saying you were incorrect and you won’t after the market doesn’t nominally tank either. It works both ways.

Several people have taken your role and faded away after years of lengthy and sometimes hostile debate.( I am not innocent in all of this). You are the perfect foil for the heavy hitter salesmen. Give them every opportunity to work it. The realtors are also giving lots of good information in the infomercial mix and no one wants that to stop including me.

[NotCranky]

Rt.66, I agree with you on your take about the free passes and all. This is as much a cliquey sales and marketing blog as any of the other multi-functions it performs. It is tolerated. I am pretty sure many people even like it. For the same reason it is not a gut check honesty forum even though Rich keeps his front page very clean except when the realtors bias it up.

You could be right or you could be wrong and I think you will be wrong A lot. Remember when Norris said houses were going to drop 20% across the board and we debated that. You lost that one big time right? I don’t see you coming around nicely saying you were incorrect and you won’t after the market doesn’t nominally tank either. It works both ways.

Several people have taken your role and faded away after years of lengthy and sometimes hostile debate.( I am not innocent in all of this). You are the perfect foil for the heavy hitter salesmen. Give them every opportunity to work it. The realtors are also giving lots of good information in the infomercial mix and no one wants that to stop including me.

[Rt.66]

Fair enough Russell, I WILL be back to grovel if I’m proved wrong, your are wrong about that.
I do not know where you get your data from but I will be correct and the realtor I was debating will be hideously wrong, of this I am VERY confident.

Do you believe there is a phantom 2nds issue that will thwart a “significant amount” of the REO base? Do you believe the shadow inventory is “much” smaller than most believe, or is it probably bigger? If you want to appear all reasonable, but at the same time supporting the realtor then at least go on record agreeing with the realtor’s fallacies.

I never said no realtor ever contributes in a good way, from what I’ve seen SD Realtor (not to be confused with SDRealtor)is reasonable. All of them should be looked upon with extra skepticism no doubt, but completely unable to be reasonable? No.

[Rt.66]

Fair enough Russell, I WILL be back to grovel if I’m proved wrong, your are wrong about that.
I do not know where you get your data from but I will be correct and the realtor I was debating will be hideously wrong, of this I am VERY confident.

Do you believe there is a phantom 2nds issue that will thwart a “significant amount” of the REO base? Do you believe the shadow inventory is “much” smaller than most believe, or is it probably bigger? If you want to appear all reasonable, but at the same time supporting the realtor then at least go on record agreeing with the realtor’s fallacies.

I never said no realtor ever contributes in a good way, from what I’ve seen SD Realtor (not to be confused with SDRealtor)is reasonable. All of them should be looked upon with extra skepticism no doubt, but completely unable to be reasonable? No.

[Rt.66]

Fair enough Russell, I WILL be back to grovel if I’m proved wrong, your are wrong about that.
I do not know where you get your data from but I will be correct and the realtor I was debating will be hideously wrong, of this I am VERY confident.

Do you believe there is a phantom 2nds issue that will thwart a “significant amount” of the REO base? Do you believe the shadow inventory is “much” smaller than most believe, or is it probably bigger? If you want to appear all reasonable, but at the same time supporting the realtor then at least go on record agreeing with the realtor’s fallacies.

I never said no realtor ever contributes in a good way, from what I’ve seen SD Realtor (not to be confused with SDRealtor)is reasonable. All of them should be looked upon with extra skepticism no doubt, but completely unable to be reasonable? No.

[Rt.66]

Fair enough Russell, I WILL be back to grovel if I’m proved wrong, your are wrong about that.
I do not know where you get your data from but I will be correct and the realtor I was debating will be hideously wrong, of this I am VERY confident.

Do you believe there is a phantom 2nds issue that will thwart a “significant amount” of the REO base? Do you believe the shadow inventory is “much” smaller than most believe, or is it probably bigger? If you want to appear all reasonable, but at the same time supporting the realtor then at least go on record agreeing with the realtor’s fallacies.

I never said no realtor ever contributes in a good way, from what I’ve seen SD Realtor (not to be confused with SDRealtor)is reasonable. All of them should be looked upon with extra skepticism no doubt, but completely unable to be reasonable? No.

[Rt.66]

Fair enough Russell, I WILL be back to grovel if I’m proved wrong, your are wrong about that.
I do not know where you get your data from but I will be correct and the realtor I was debating will be hideously wrong, of this I am VERY confident.

Do you believe there is a phantom 2nds issue that will thwart a “significant amount” of the REO base? Do you believe the shadow inventory is “much” smaller than most believe, or is it probably bigger? If you want to appear all reasonable, but at the same time supporting the realtor then at least go on record agreeing with the realtor’s fallacies.

I never said no realtor ever contributes in a good way, from what I’ve seen SD Realtor (not to be confused with SDRealtor)is reasonable. All of them should be looked upon with extra skepticism no doubt, but completely unable to be reasonable? No.

[sdrealtor]

I’m gonna play nice now event hough this started with you showing no respect my way based upon what I do. The funny part is you werent around 2 to 3 years ago when I was giving it to the blind bulls. Go back and see how I took your side back in the day against the Ozzie’s and Beebo’s of the world in years past. I dont see my self as a bull or bear but rather someone looking for the truth and questioning everything I see (just like you).

Got a question for you on your last bit of data. Its seems you have a denominator problem. The % for SD is so high because the denominator (active inventory)is so low here. SD and Phoenix have roughly the same population but Phoenix has 2.5X the active inventory. I beleive LA has about 2.5X the population of SD but more than 4X the active inventory. To understand the real vlue of that data we need to adjust for the size of population. Maybe you have time to do that and lets see what the numbers look like after that.

[sdrealtor]

I’m gonna play nice now event hough this started with you showing no respect my way based upon what I do. The funny part is you werent around 2 to 3 years ago when I was giving it to the blind bulls. Go back and see how I took your side back in the day against the Ozzie’s and Beebo’s of the world in years past. I dont see my self as a bull or bear but rather someone looking for the truth and questioning everything I see (just like you).

Got a question for you on your last bit of data. Its seems you have a denominator problem. The % for SD is so high because the denominator (active inventory)is so low here. SD and Phoenix have roughly the same population but Phoenix has 2.5X the active inventory. I beleive LA has about 2.5X the population of SD but more than 4X the active inventory. To understand the real vlue of that data we need to adjust for the size of population. Maybe you have time to do that and lets see what the numbers look like after that.

[sdrealtor]

I’m gonna play nice now event hough this started with you showing no respect my way based upon what I do. The funny part is you werent around 2 to 3 years ago when I was giving it to the blind bulls. Go back and see how I took your side back in the day against the Ozzie’s and Beebo’s of the world in years past. I dont see my self as a bull or bear but rather someone looking for the truth and questioning everything I see (just like you).

Got a question for you on your last bit of data. Its seems you have a denominator problem. The % for SD is so high because the denominator (active inventory)is so low here. SD and Phoenix have roughly the same population but Phoenix has 2.5X the active inventory. I beleive LA has about 2.5X the population of SD but more than 4X the active inventory. To understand the real vlue of that data we need to adjust for the size of population. Maybe you have time to do that and lets see what the numbers look like after that.

[sdrealtor]

I’m gonna play nice now event hough this started with you showing no respect my way based upon what I do. The funny part is you werent around 2 to 3 years ago when I was giving it to the blind bulls. Go back and see how I took your side back in the day against the Ozzie’s and Beebo’s of the world in years past. I dont see my self as a bull or bear but rather someone looking for the truth and questioning everything I see (just like you).

Got a question for you on your last bit of data. Its seems you have a denominator problem. The % for SD is so high because the denominator (active inventory)is so low here. SD and Phoenix have roughly the same population but Phoenix has 2.5X the active inventory. I beleive LA has about 2.5X the population of SD but more than 4X the active inventory. To understand the real vlue of that data we need to adjust for the size of population. Maybe you have time to do that and lets see what the numbers look like after that.

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