The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[sdrealtor]

I dont back down from posters like you because you add very little to this board and I (like TG) arent afraid to go head to head with you. You dont make this a better place nor do you add value. You run into the movie theatre, scream fire and run out.

2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines (average about 7.5%) amounts to 20% down from current levels. The $550K sale was not in the area I think will see those declines but lets say it was. When it was $550K there were 12 offers in 3 days several of which were all cash. It was a spectacular property. Do you think there will be less competition if it was $450K? Do you think prices that low will last long when 30 offers come in over a weekend? It is probably the best location in that tract (in my and the buyers opinion). Do you think there is a chance a property that good just might not hit the market when prices are that low? It was a minor miracle to get the property with that much competition, at a price 20% lower it would be virtually impossible. You do know people actually live in their homes and enjoy them?

[outtamojo]

A few years back when bears were hunting for signs “the crash” was taking hold, we/they had the most interesting things to say and you could pretty much guess what the bull response would be. Now it’s the opposite- the bulls are hunting for signs of a turnaround and have the more interesting things to say -the bears? You could substitute a bot for them if only you could duplicate their anger and frustration at the way things are vs the way they think it should be.

[outtamojo]

A few years back when bears were hunting for signs “the crash” was taking hold, we/they had the most interesting things to say and you could pretty much guess what the bull response would be. Now it’s the opposite- the bulls are hunting for signs of a turnaround and have the more interesting things to say -the bears? You could substitute a bot for them if only you could duplicate their anger and frustration at the way things are vs the way they think it should be.

[outtamojo]

A few years back when bears were hunting for signs “the crash” was taking hold, we/they had the most interesting things to say and you could pretty much guess what the bull response would be. Now it’s the opposite- the bulls are hunting for signs of a turnaround and have the more interesting things to say -the bears? You could substitute a bot for them if only you could duplicate their anger and frustration at the way things are vs the way they think it should be.

[outtamojo]

A few years back when bears were hunting for signs “the crash” was taking hold, we/they had the most interesting things to say and you could pretty much guess what the bull response would be. Now it’s the opposite- the bulls are hunting for signs of a turnaround and have the more interesting things to say -the bears? You could substitute a bot for them if only you could duplicate their anger and frustration at the way things are vs the way they think it should be.

[outtamojo]

A few years back when bears were hunting for signs “the crash” was taking hold, we/they had the most interesting things to say and you could pretty much guess what the bull response would be. Now it’s the opposite- the bulls are hunting for signs of a turnaround and have the more interesting things to say -the bears? You could substitute a bot for them if only you could duplicate their anger and frustration at the way things are vs the way they think it should be.

[scaredyclassic]

the way things are v. they way i perceive it should be….

man that disconnect is the story of my life.

“chop wood, carry water.”

[scaredyclassic]

the way things are v. they way i perceive it should be….

man that disconnect is the story of my life.

“chop wood, carry water.”

[scaredyclassic]

the way things are v. they way i perceive it should be….

man that disconnect is the story of my life.

“chop wood, carry water.”

[scaredyclassic]

the way things are v. they way i perceive it should be….

man that disconnect is the story of my life.

“chop wood, carry water.”

[scaredyclassic]

the way things are v. they way i perceive it should be….

man that disconnect is the story of my life.

“chop wood, carry water.”

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=CardiffBaseball]Some look at this as making it as fun as possible for as many kids as possible and others can’t turn off that competitive spigot… I suggest parents find a coach that fits which direction they want to go.[/quote]

CB: I had the opportunity to work with a former college star named Gary Crosswhite, who played LB for Oklahoma for four years. Flat out the best football guy I ever worked with. Tremendous knowledge of the game and a great coach. The problem? A lot of what the college and pro guys know just doesn’t translate back down to the youth level, especially for the little guys, like Mitey Mite and Jr Pee Wee players.

I played as far as high school (could have played collegiate, but that’s another story), but for an excellent SF/Bay Area Catholic HS program (we won back to back CCS Championships and went 28 – 0 my junior and senior years). We were rigorously coached in the fundamentals and everything was anchored on our power running game and our defense (I played MLB).

I used the exact same template starting at Mitey Mite and going all the way up to Pee Wee and it worked like a charm. Power running up the middle (which no one in Pop Warner really defends against because its all edge running in PW) and a simple one gap defense focused on gang tackling and pursuit to the ball. And I fervently preach the “Art of the Hit” to my players: Hit hard or get hit hard, but I used kid-friendly, age-appropriate drills (like “Last Man Standing”, which is our version of “Sharks and Minnows”) to make the point. If the kids aren’t having fun, they won’t play. Period. You have to use constant positive reinforcement and let them know, even if they screw up, that you still love them and to keep trying till they get it right.

I’ve seen former collegiate football guys trying to teach a spread offense or a 3-3-5 defense to 7 and 8 year old kids. Doesn’t translate. I’ve also seen that same intensity (obsession) derail an entire team, especially the younger ones, when coaches try to use the discipline they learned in college or the pros on grade school kids.

You have to establish that rapport and the proper environment for them to learn, or all the football knowledge in the world doesn’t matter one iota.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=CardiffBaseball]Some look at this as making it as fun as possible for as many kids as possible and others can’t turn off that competitive spigot… I suggest parents find a coach that fits which direction they want to go.[/quote]

CB: I had the opportunity to work with a former college star named Gary Crosswhite, who played LB for Oklahoma for four years. Flat out the best football guy I ever worked with. Tremendous knowledge of the game and a great coach. The problem? A lot of what the college and pro guys know just doesn’t translate back down to the youth level, especially for the little guys, like Mitey Mite and Jr Pee Wee players.

I played as far as high school (could have played collegiate, but that’s another story), but for an excellent SF/Bay Area Catholic HS program (we won back to back CCS Championships and went 28 – 0 my junior and senior years). We were rigorously coached in the fundamentals and everything was anchored on our power running game and our defense (I played MLB).

I used the exact same template starting at Mitey Mite and going all the way up to Pee Wee and it worked like a charm. Power running up the middle (which no one in Pop Warner really defends against because its all edge running in PW) and a simple one gap defense focused on gang tackling and pursuit to the ball. And I fervently preach the “Art of the Hit” to my players: Hit hard or get hit hard, but I used kid-friendly, age-appropriate drills (like “Last Man Standing”, which is our version of “Sharks and Minnows”) to make the point. If the kids aren’t having fun, they won’t play. Period. You have to use constant positive reinforcement and let them know, even if they screw up, that you still love them and to keep trying till they get it right.

I’ve seen former collegiate football guys trying to teach a spread offense or a 3-3-5 defense to 7 and 8 year old kids. Doesn’t translate. I’ve also seen that same intensity (obsession) derail an entire team, especially the younger ones, when coaches try to use the discipline they learned in college or the pros on grade school kids.

You have to establish that rapport and the proper environment for them to learn, or all the football knowledge in the world doesn’t matter one iota.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=CardiffBaseball]Some look at this as making it as fun as possible for as many kids as possible and others can’t turn off that competitive spigot… I suggest parents find a coach that fits which direction they want to go.[/quote]

CB: I had the opportunity to work with a former college star named Gary Crosswhite, who played LB for Oklahoma for four years. Flat out the best football guy I ever worked with. Tremendous knowledge of the game and a great coach. The problem? A lot of what the college and pro guys know just doesn’t translate back down to the youth level, especially for the little guys, like Mitey Mite and Jr Pee Wee players.

I played as far as high school (could have played collegiate, but that’s another story), but for an excellent SF/Bay Area Catholic HS program (we won back to back CCS Championships and went 28 – 0 my junior and senior years). We were rigorously coached in the fundamentals and everything was anchored on our power running game and our defense (I played MLB).

I used the exact same template starting at Mitey Mite and going all the way up to Pee Wee and it worked like a charm. Power running up the middle (which no one in Pop Warner really defends against because its all edge running in PW) and a simple one gap defense focused on gang tackling and pursuit to the ball. And I fervently preach the “Art of the Hit” to my players: Hit hard or get hit hard, but I used kid-friendly, age-appropriate drills (like “Last Man Standing”, which is our version of “Sharks and Minnows”) to make the point. If the kids aren’t having fun, they won’t play. Period. You have to use constant positive reinforcement and let them know, even if they screw up, that you still love them and to keep trying till they get it right.

I’ve seen former collegiate football guys trying to teach a spread offense or a 3-3-5 defense to 7 and 8 year old kids. Doesn’t translate. I’ve also seen that same intensity (obsession) derail an entire team, especially the younger ones, when coaches try to use the discipline they learned in college or the pros on grade school kids.

You have to establish that rapport and the proper environment for them to learn, or all the football knowledge in the world doesn’t matter one iota.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=CardiffBaseball]Some look at this as making it as fun as possible for as many kids as possible and others can’t turn off that competitive spigot… I suggest parents find a coach that fits which direction they want to go.[/quote]

CB: I had the opportunity to work with a former college star named Gary Crosswhite, who played LB for Oklahoma for four years. Flat out the best football guy I ever worked with. Tremendous knowledge of the game and a great coach. The problem? A lot of what the college and pro guys know just doesn’t translate back down to the youth level, especially for the little guys, like Mitey Mite and Jr Pee Wee players.

I played as far as high school (could have played collegiate, but that’s another story), but for an excellent SF/Bay Area Catholic HS program (we won back to back CCS Championships and went 28 – 0 my junior and senior years). We were rigorously coached in the fundamentals and everything was anchored on our power running game and our defense (I played MLB).

I used the exact same template starting at Mitey Mite and going all the way up to Pee Wee and it worked like a charm. Power running up the middle (which no one in Pop Warner really defends against because its all edge running in PW) and a simple one gap defense focused on gang tackling and pursuit to the ball. And I fervently preach the “Art of the Hit” to my players: Hit hard or get hit hard, but I used kid-friendly, age-appropriate drills (like “Last Man Standing”, which is our version of “Sharks and Minnows”) to make the point. If the kids aren’t having fun, they won’t play. Period. You have to use constant positive reinforcement and let them know, even if they screw up, that you still love them and to keep trying till they get it right.

I’ve seen former collegiate football guys trying to teach a spread offense or a 3-3-5 defense to 7 and 8 year old kids. Doesn’t translate. I’ve also seen that same intensity (obsession) derail an entire team, especially the younger ones, when coaches try to use the discipline they learned in college or the pros on grade school kids.

You have to establish that rapport and the proper environment for them to learn, or all the football knowledge in the world doesn’t matter one iota.

[Author]

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