The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[temeculaguy]

sdceller, I agree, people just chill a little, make your point, even argue your point, but save the venom for the political threads. Rt.66, you are quickly becoming the most annoying participant on the boards, it’s painful to read your posts sometimes. Even when you make a valid point your are such a jerk about it that it turns me off, makes me want to ignore everything you say even when there may be some valuable info. I wonder if others feel the same way? Ever notice how sdr and I are the only ones who will argue with you, the casual posters are afraid of you and it’s not because of your intelliegence (which i don’t dispute), it’s because you will go all crazy and make a bunch of mean spirited posts before anyone can reply, fire off insults to anyone with a different viewpoint, that’s not valuable to anyone. At least once before rich has had to tell you to calm down, and you’ve ventered there again, meditate, calm down, and engage in meaningful discussions that we all know you are capable of.

I’m sure you will dismiss this as my succumbing to your vastly superior position and you will see it as confirmation that you are right and everyone else is wrong. I’ve debated with all sorts of people on these boards for a few years, and told them when they have a point, learned from some, changed my mind because of them and even shared an adult beverage or a meal with some because i value their opinion even when it differs from mine. We discuss life, sports, family, stocks and a lot of the times, real estate. In the end we are more alike than different. We were drawn here because our minds couldn’t grasp the bubble, we resisted it, we felt alone and we found solace with each other. Now as it is unwinding, we still have different opinions, we live in different markets, have different experiences and we like to share them, make jokes, share ideas and not feel alone.

How do you not see this for what it is? How is it that your posts (err, attacks) are the same everytime? I can’t predict most people’s posts but I can write yours before you do, I know exactly what you are going to say, what you are going to quote and what will make you crazy. If you’d like I can respond to this post for you if it will save you time.

I had a very funny satirical response to my own post prentending I was you, but I just hit the delete button a few hundred times because i know it will just enrage you. While entertaining for me and probably a few others, that is not my point, I truly hope that you back up a little, evaluate what your purpose for posting is, look at yourself a little and take a different tact at this whole online thing.

maybe I’m wrong, maybe all of “my people” have gotten what they wanted from this place and moved on, maybe the majority of the posters and readers are “your people” and you write what they want to hear. I wish enorah was here because I feel a shift coming, something will change soon and I’m not sure what it is yet, maybe everything you say will come true exactly as you predict it, if it does, I’ll congratulate you and tell you that you were right, maybe even I’ll adjust my strategy becuse of it, I have before with other posters and influences, your style makes it hard for me to swallow however. I do wonder if you will do the same if it someone else that is right?

[scaredyclassic]

style is very important in life. being right is secondary.

take the time to be suave.

also check out http://www.sartorialist.blogspot.com

[scaredyclassic]

style is very important in life. being right is secondary.

take the time to be suave.

also check out http://www.sartorialist.blogspot.com

[scaredyclassic]

style is very important in life. being right is secondary.

take the time to be suave.

also check out http://www.sartorialist.blogspot.com

[scaredyclassic]

style is very important in life. being right is secondary.

take the time to be suave.

also check out http://www.sartorialist.blogspot.com

[scaredyclassic]

style is very important in life. being right is secondary.

take the time to be suave.

also check out http://www.sartorialist.blogspot.com

[CardiffBaseball]

As a total off-topic aside on the Rick Mirer/Duane Reed et. al., coaching Pop Warner, I find ex-pro athletes around the youth sports largely to be over-rated. Now I like it, and I would certainly tell my buds back home that “so-and-so” is my kid’s coach for instance, because it’s a wow factor….but I also know it doesn’t translate to instant success. Well, at least in the sport I spend a good deal of time coaching, going up against ex MLBers, or career minor leaguers is really no big deal. Largely the children are not all that much more gifted than us regular joes, and in general I don’t see that much in terms of their advanced knowledge that can be passed on to a bunch of 12 year old kids.

Now I’ll see parents practically whore themselves to hire certain batting coaches because of his past, but I have a whole lot of parents convinced that I can teach their 12 year old kid better than the ex-pro can. That’s because I can back it up of course but I get others who just automatically assume paying 3 times the rate for “so-and-so” will advance their child more. They have a ton of disposable income, what do I care…

With Pop Warner maybe it’s different but I don’t know. I have a friend I know who played college football who resisted letting his kid play PW. This year he gave in, signed up his kid and showed up at practice announcing, “hey guys I was a RB and special teams guy in college, and know LB pretty well if you need some help” to which he was told “it’s ok dad we got it.” He was a bit surprised to say the least. My point here is not all “dads” are smart either, there must be some happy medium between the more experienced and the dad’s like me who were very close in HS, but had one thing holding us back (too white, too slow whatever). In my case I was not much of a hitter but quite skilled otherwise, so I spent a good deal of time figuring out what I did wrong so that my kids don’t do the same.

One other strange thing about the ex-pros is the wild difference in perspective. Phil Nevin for instance got himself kicked out of a 9-10 LL All-Star game district final. He was Uber-intense that day (and I’ve been there)… Other dads like Trevor Hoffman seem content to lay low, encourage ALL kids to have fun and keep things pretty much in perspective. Two years ago we played RSF all-stars which had 4 ex-MLBers on the team, and they seemed fairly laid back, whereas my older son played for well known pro who is known for really riding umpires and hard to play against because he can’t set aside his competitive nature.

Some look at this as making it as fun as possible for as many kids as possible and others can’t turn off that competitive spigot… I suggest parents find a coach that fits which direction they want to go.

[CardiffBaseball]

As a total off-topic aside on the Rick Mirer/Duane Reed et. al., coaching Pop Warner, I find ex-pro athletes around the youth sports largely to be over-rated. Now I like it, and I would certainly tell my buds back home that “so-and-so” is my kid’s coach for instance, because it’s a wow factor….but I also know it doesn’t translate to instant success. Well, at least in the sport I spend a good deal of time coaching, going up against ex MLBers, or career minor leaguers is really no big deal. Largely the children are not all that much more gifted than us regular joes, and in general I don’t see that much in terms of their advanced knowledge that can be passed on to a bunch of 12 year old kids.

Now I’ll see parents practically whore themselves to hire certain batting coaches because of his past, but I have a whole lot of parents convinced that I can teach their 12 year old kid better than the ex-pro can. That’s because I can back it up of course but I get others who just automatically assume paying 3 times the rate for “so-and-so” will advance their child more. They have a ton of disposable income, what do I care…

With Pop Warner maybe it’s different but I don’t know. I have a friend I know who played college football who resisted letting his kid play PW. This year he gave in, signed up his kid and showed up at practice announcing, “hey guys I was a RB and special teams guy in college, and know LB pretty well if you need some help” to which he was told “it’s ok dad we got it.” He was a bit surprised to say the least. My point here is not all “dads” are smart either, there must be some happy medium between the more experienced and the dad’s like me who were very close in HS, but had one thing holding us back (too white, too slow whatever). In my case I was not much of a hitter but quite skilled otherwise, so I spent a good deal of time figuring out what I did wrong so that my kids don’t do the same.

One other strange thing about the ex-pros is the wild difference in perspective. Phil Nevin for instance got himself kicked out of a 9-10 LL All-Star game district final. He was Uber-intense that day (and I’ve been there)… Other dads like Trevor Hoffman seem content to lay low, encourage ALL kids to have fun and keep things pretty much in perspective. Two years ago we played RSF all-stars which had 4 ex-MLBers on the team, and they seemed fairly laid back, whereas my older son played for well known pro who is known for really riding umpires and hard to play against because he can’t set aside his competitive nature.

Some look at this as making it as fun as possible for as many kids as possible and others can’t turn off that competitive spigot… I suggest parents find a coach that fits which direction they want to go.

[CardiffBaseball]

As a total off-topic aside on the Rick Mirer/Duane Reed et. al., coaching Pop Warner, I find ex-pro athletes around the youth sports largely to be over-rated. Now I like it, and I would certainly tell my buds back home that “so-and-so” is my kid’s coach for instance, because it’s a wow factor….but I also know it doesn’t translate to instant success. Well, at least in the sport I spend a good deal of time coaching, going up against ex MLBers, or career minor leaguers is really no big deal. Largely the children are not all that much more gifted than us regular joes, and in general I don’t see that much in terms of their advanced knowledge that can be passed on to a bunch of 12 year old kids.

Now I’ll see parents practically whore themselves to hire certain batting coaches because of his past, but I have a whole lot of parents convinced that I can teach their 12 year old kid better than the ex-pro can. That’s because I can back it up of course but I get others who just automatically assume paying 3 times the rate for “so-and-so” will advance their child more. They have a ton of disposable income, what do I care…

With Pop Warner maybe it’s different but I don’t know. I have a friend I know who played college football who resisted letting his kid play PW. This year he gave in, signed up his kid and showed up at practice announcing, “hey guys I was a RB and special teams guy in college, and know LB pretty well if you need some help” to which he was told “it’s ok dad we got it.” He was a bit surprised to say the least. My point here is not all “dads” are smart either, there must be some happy medium between the more experienced and the dad’s like me who were very close in HS, but had one thing holding us back (too white, too slow whatever). In my case I was not much of a hitter but quite skilled otherwise, so I spent a good deal of time figuring out what I did wrong so that my kids don’t do the same.

One other strange thing about the ex-pros is the wild difference in perspective. Phil Nevin for instance got himself kicked out of a 9-10 LL All-Star game district final. He was Uber-intense that day (and I’ve been there)… Other dads like Trevor Hoffman seem content to lay low, encourage ALL kids to have fun and keep things pretty much in perspective. Two years ago we played RSF all-stars which had 4 ex-MLBers on the team, and they seemed fairly laid back, whereas my older son played for well known pro who is known for really riding umpires and hard to play against because he can’t set aside his competitive nature.

Some look at this as making it as fun as possible for as many kids as possible and others can’t turn off that competitive spigot… I suggest parents find a coach that fits which direction they want to go.

[CardiffBaseball]

As a total off-topic aside on the Rick Mirer/Duane Reed et. al., coaching Pop Warner, I find ex-pro athletes around the youth sports largely to be over-rated. Now I like it, and I would certainly tell my buds back home that “so-and-so” is my kid’s coach for instance, because it’s a wow factor….but I also know it doesn’t translate to instant success. Well, at least in the sport I spend a good deal of time coaching, going up against ex MLBers, or career minor leaguers is really no big deal. Largely the children are not all that much more gifted than us regular joes, and in general I don’t see that much in terms of their advanced knowledge that can be passed on to a bunch of 12 year old kids.

Now I’ll see parents practically whore themselves to hire certain batting coaches because of his past, but I have a whole lot of parents convinced that I can teach their 12 year old kid better than the ex-pro can. That’s because I can back it up of course but I get others who just automatically assume paying 3 times the rate for “so-and-so” will advance their child more. They have a ton of disposable income, what do I care…

With Pop Warner maybe it’s different but I don’t know. I have a friend I know who played college football who resisted letting his kid play PW. This year he gave in, signed up his kid and showed up at practice announcing, “hey guys I was a RB and special teams guy in college, and know LB pretty well if you need some help” to which he was told “it’s ok dad we got it.” He was a bit surprised to say the least. My point here is not all “dads” are smart either, there must be some happy medium between the more experienced and the dad’s like me who were very close in HS, but had one thing holding us back (too white, too slow whatever). In my case I was not much of a hitter but quite skilled otherwise, so I spent a good deal of time figuring out what I did wrong so that my kids don’t do the same.

One other strange thing about the ex-pros is the wild difference in perspective. Phil Nevin for instance got himself kicked out of a 9-10 LL All-Star game district final. He was Uber-intense that day (and I’ve been there)… Other dads like Trevor Hoffman seem content to lay low, encourage ALL kids to have fun and keep things pretty much in perspective. Two years ago we played RSF all-stars which had 4 ex-MLBers on the team, and they seemed fairly laid back, whereas my older son played for well known pro who is known for really riding umpires and hard to play against because he can’t set aside his competitive nature.

Some look at this as making it as fun as possible for as many kids as possible and others can’t turn off that competitive spigot… I suggest parents find a coach that fits which direction they want to go.

[CardiffBaseball]

As a total off-topic aside on the Rick Mirer/Duane Reed et. al., coaching Pop Warner, I find ex-pro athletes around the youth sports largely to be over-rated. Now I like it, and I would certainly tell my buds back home that “so-and-so” is my kid’s coach for instance, because it’s a wow factor….but I also know it doesn’t translate to instant success. Well, at least in the sport I spend a good deal of time coaching, going up against ex MLBers, or career minor leaguers is really no big deal. Largely the children are not all that much more gifted than us regular joes, and in general I don’t see that much in terms of their advanced knowledge that can be passed on to a bunch of 12 year old kids.

Now I’ll see parents practically whore themselves to hire certain batting coaches because of his past, but I have a whole lot of parents convinced that I can teach their 12 year old kid better than the ex-pro can. That’s because I can back it up of course but I get others who just automatically assume paying 3 times the rate for “so-and-so” will advance their child more. They have a ton of disposable income, what do I care…

With Pop Warner maybe it’s different but I don’t know. I have a friend I know who played college football who resisted letting his kid play PW. This year he gave in, signed up his kid and showed up at practice announcing, “hey guys I was a RB and special teams guy in college, and know LB pretty well if you need some help” to which he was told “it’s ok dad we got it.” He was a bit surprised to say the least. My point here is not all “dads” are smart either, there must be some happy medium between the more experienced and the dad’s like me who were very close in HS, but had one thing holding us back (too white, too slow whatever). In my case I was not much of a hitter but quite skilled otherwise, so I spent a good deal of time figuring out what I did wrong so that my kids don’t do the same.

One other strange thing about the ex-pros is the wild difference in perspective. Phil Nevin for instance got himself kicked out of a 9-10 LL All-Star game district final. He was Uber-intense that day (and I’ve been there)… Other dads like Trevor Hoffman seem content to lay low, encourage ALL kids to have fun and keep things pretty much in perspective. Two years ago we played RSF all-stars which had 4 ex-MLBers on the team, and they seemed fairly laid back, whereas my older son played for well known pro who is known for really riding umpires and hard to play against because he can’t set aside his competitive nature.

Some look at this as making it as fun as possible for as many kids as possible and others can’t turn off that competitive spigot… I suggest parents find a coach that fits which direction they want to go.

[sdrealtor]

I dont back down from posters like you because you add very little to this board and I (like TG) arent afraid to go head to head with you. You dont make this a better place nor do you add value. You run into the movie theatre, scream fire and run out.

2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines (average about 7.5%) amounts to 20% down from current levels. The $550K sale was not in the area I think will see those declines but lets say it was. When it was $550K there were 12 offers in 3 days several of which were all cash. It was a spectacular property. Do you think there will be less competition if it was $450K? Do you think prices that low will last long when 30 offers come in over a weekend? It is probably the best location in that tract (in my and the buyers opinion). Do you think there is a chance a property that good just might not hit the market when prices are that low? It was a minor miracle to get the property with that much competition, at a price 20% lower it would be virtually impossible. You do know people actually live in their homes and enjoy them?

[sdrealtor]

I dont back down from posters like you because you add very little to this board and I (like TG) arent afraid to go head to head with you. You dont make this a better place nor do you add value. You run into the movie theatre, scream fire and run out.

2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines (average about 7.5%) amounts to 20% down from current levels. The $550K sale was not in the area I think will see those declines but lets say it was. When it was $550K there were 12 offers in 3 days several of which were all cash. It was a spectacular property. Do you think there will be less competition if it was $450K? Do you think prices that low will last long when 30 offers come in over a weekend? It is probably the best location in that tract (in my and the buyers opinion). Do you think there is a chance a property that good just might not hit the market when prices are that low? It was a minor miracle to get the property with that much competition, at a price 20% lower it would be virtually impossible. You do know people actually live in their homes and enjoy them?

[sdrealtor]

I dont back down from posters like you because you add very little to this board and I (like TG) arent afraid to go head to head with you. You dont make this a better place nor do you add value. You run into the movie theatre, scream fire and run out.

2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines (average about 7.5%) amounts to 20% down from current levels. The $550K sale was not in the area I think will see those declines but lets say it was. When it was $550K there were 12 offers in 3 days several of which were all cash. It was a spectacular property. Do you think there will be less competition if it was $450K? Do you think prices that low will last long when 30 offers come in over a weekend? It is probably the best location in that tract (in my and the buyers opinion). Do you think there is a chance a property that good just might not hit the market when prices are that low? It was a minor miracle to get the property with that much competition, at a price 20% lower it would be virtually impossible. You do know people actually live in their homes and enjoy them?

[sdrealtor]

I dont back down from posters like you because you add very little to this board and I (like TG) arent afraid to go head to head with you. You dont make this a better place nor do you add value. You run into the movie theatre, scream fire and run out.

2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines (average about 7.5%) amounts to 20% down from current levels. The $550K sale was not in the area I think will see those declines but lets say it was. When it was $550K there were 12 offers in 3 days several of which were all cash. It was a spectacular property. Do you think there will be less competition if it was $450K? Do you think prices that low will last long when 30 offers come in over a weekend? It is probably the best location in that tract (in my and the buyers opinion). Do you think there is a chance a property that good just might not hit the market when prices are that low? It was a minor miracle to get the property with that much competition, at a price 20% lower it would be virtually impossible. You do know people actually live in their homes and enjoy them?

[Author]

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