The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[Rt.66]

Tic, tic, tic fabricating realtor desperately thinking of a cleaver out (try using more detail).

Dude if you have to admit you lied don’t make too big a deal over it. A realtor admitting they lied to make the market look better than it is, is not going to make the evening news and the reputation of your industry is not going to take any sort of hit that can make it sink any further. It’s a non event.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

sdr: One of the things I would challenge, but specific to the California market, is the impact of unemployment on the numbers.

We’re hearing about this recovery being a “jobless” recovery, which to me sounds like so much bullshit, but I do believe its hard to make the case for a rebound in housing without solid employment.

Yes, I realize that you didn’t call this a rebound, but you also don’t seem to buy into the possibility of a second leg down (which I do). Given the overall bleakness of the numbers (not just unemployment), and, more importantly, the distinct possibility that things might get worse before they get better, don’t you think there’s a chance there might be another fall in prices? Yup, that is a broad-brush statement, but I’m looking at the macro picture here in California and factoring in the declining health and wealth of the state as a whole.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

sdr: One of the things I would challenge, but specific to the California market, is the impact of unemployment on the numbers.

We’re hearing about this recovery being a “jobless” recovery, which to me sounds like so much bullshit, but I do believe its hard to make the case for a rebound in housing without solid employment.

Yes, I realize that you didn’t call this a rebound, but you also don’t seem to buy into the possibility of a second leg down (which I do). Given the overall bleakness of the numbers (not just unemployment), and, more importantly, the distinct possibility that things might get worse before they get better, don’t you think there’s a chance there might be another fall in prices? Yup, that is a broad-brush statement, but I’m looking at the macro picture here in California and factoring in the declining health and wealth of the state as a whole.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

sdr: One of the things I would challenge, but specific to the California market, is the impact of unemployment on the numbers.

We’re hearing about this recovery being a “jobless” recovery, which to me sounds like so much bullshit, but I do believe its hard to make the case for a rebound in housing without solid employment.

Yes, I realize that you didn’t call this a rebound, but you also don’t seem to buy into the possibility of a second leg down (which I do). Given the overall bleakness of the numbers (not just unemployment), and, more importantly, the distinct possibility that things might get worse before they get better, don’t you think there’s a chance there might be another fall in prices? Yup, that is a broad-brush statement, but I’m looking at the macro picture here in California and factoring in the declining health and wealth of the state as a whole.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

sdr: One of the things I would challenge, but specific to the California market, is the impact of unemployment on the numbers.

We’re hearing about this recovery being a “jobless” recovery, which to me sounds like so much bullshit, but I do believe its hard to make the case for a rebound in housing without solid employment.

Yes, I realize that you didn’t call this a rebound, but you also don’t seem to buy into the possibility of a second leg down (which I do). Given the overall bleakness of the numbers (not just unemployment), and, more importantly, the distinct possibility that things might get worse before they get better, don’t you think there’s a chance there might be another fall in prices? Yup, that is a broad-brush statement, but I’m looking at the macro picture here in California and factoring in the declining health and wealth of the state as a whole.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

sdr: One of the things I would challenge, but specific to the California market, is the impact of unemployment on the numbers.

We’re hearing about this recovery being a “jobless” recovery, which to me sounds like so much bullshit, but I do believe its hard to make the case for a rebound in housing without solid employment.

Yes, I realize that you didn’t call this a rebound, but you also don’t seem to buy into the possibility of a second leg down (which I do). Given the overall bleakness of the numbers (not just unemployment), and, more importantly, the distinct possibility that things might get worse before they get better, don’t you think there’s a chance there might be another fall in prices? Yup, that is a broad-brush statement, but I’m looking at the macro picture here in California and factoring in the declining health and wealth of the state as a whole.

[sdrealtor]

OK dumbass I’ll bite. Go to http://www.realtytrac.com. Enter ZIP 92009 and you will see a list of homes. The list has street names, default amounts (you said wasnt there), sq ftage as reported in the tax records as well as br and bath counts. Pick any single family detached home and send me that information. Dont think I can postively identify a house with that much information in about 2 minutes?

[sdrealtor]

OK dumbass I’ll bite. Go to http://www.realtytrac.com. Enter ZIP 92009 and you will see a list of homes. The list has street names, default amounts (you said wasnt there), sq ftage as reported in the tax records as well as br and bath counts. Pick any single family detached home and send me that information. Dont think I can postively identify a house with that much information in about 2 minutes?

[sdrealtor]

OK dumbass I’ll bite. Go to http://www.realtytrac.com. Enter ZIP 92009 and you will see a list of homes. The list has street names, default amounts (you said wasnt there), sq ftage as reported in the tax records as well as br and bath counts. Pick any single family detached home and send me that information. Dont think I can postively identify a house with that much information in about 2 minutes?

[sdrealtor]

OK dumbass I’ll bite. Go to http://www.realtytrac.com. Enter ZIP 92009 and you will see a list of homes. The list has street names, default amounts (you said wasnt there), sq ftage as reported in the tax records as well as br and bath counts. Pick any single family detached home and send me that information. Dont think I can postively identify a house with that much information in about 2 minutes?

[sdrealtor]

OK dumbass I’ll bite. Go to http://www.realtytrac.com. Enter ZIP 92009 and you will see a list of homes. The list has street names, default amounts (you said wasnt there), sq ftage as reported in the tax records as well as br and bath counts. Pick any single family detached home and send me that information. Dont think I can postively identify a house with that much information in about 2 minutes?

[sdrealtor]

Allan
I absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now. That would bring it down to the level I predicted it would hit when I came on this site 3 years ago, reiterated every year since and still believe.

As an aside, I just had an interesting take on Carmel Valley which I dont particularly care for but lots of folks do. Chew on this one. If you lost your multi-million dollar estate in Rancho Santa Fe and had to find a place to live more modestly but wanted to minimize and impact from relocating your family….where do you think you would go? Do you think CV will be on the list of displaced RSF families to keep their kids in the same schools and community?

BTW, Alan dont know if you saw my post but how would you like to line up against Pop Warner teams coached by Rick Mirer, Andre Reed and Duane Bickett?

[sdrealtor]

Allan
I absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now. That would bring it down to the level I predicted it would hit when I came on this site 3 years ago, reiterated every year since and still believe.

As an aside, I just had an interesting take on Carmel Valley which I dont particularly care for but lots of folks do. Chew on this one. If you lost your multi-million dollar estate in Rancho Santa Fe and had to find a place to live more modestly but wanted to minimize and impact from relocating your family….where do you think you would go? Do you think CV will be on the list of displaced RSF families to keep their kids in the same schools and community?

BTW, Alan dont know if you saw my post but how would you like to line up against Pop Warner teams coached by Rick Mirer, Andre Reed and Duane Bickett?

[sdrealtor]

Allan
I absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now. That would bring it down to the level I predicted it would hit when I came on this site 3 years ago, reiterated every year since and still believe.

As an aside, I just had an interesting take on Carmel Valley which I dont particularly care for but lots of folks do. Chew on this one. If you lost your multi-million dollar estate in Rancho Santa Fe and had to find a place to live more modestly but wanted to minimize and impact from relocating your family….where do you think you would go? Do you think CV will be on the list of displaced RSF families to keep their kids in the same schools and community?

BTW, Alan dont know if you saw my post but how would you like to line up against Pop Warner teams coached by Rick Mirer, Andre Reed and Duane Bickett?

[sdrealtor]

Allan
I absolutely beleive there is a 2nd leg down coming. I expect my house to decline 15 to 20% from where it is now. That would bring it down to the level I predicted it would hit when I came on this site 3 years ago, reiterated every year since and still believe.

As an aside, I just had an interesting take on Carmel Valley which I dont particularly care for but lots of folks do. Chew on this one. If you lost your multi-million dollar estate in Rancho Santa Fe and had to find a place to live more modestly but wanted to minimize and impact from relocating your family….where do you think you would go? Do you think CV will be on the list of displaced RSF families to keep their kids in the same schools and community?

BTW, Alan dont know if you saw my post but how would you like to line up against Pop Warner teams coached by Rick Mirer, Andre Reed and Duane Bickett?

[Author]

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