The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[Arraya]

The powers that be are winning and you just cant admit that.
[img_assist|nid=12020|title=Winning?|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=985|height=600]

I’m not sure if we can afford anymore winning.

The fat lady is warming up in the dressing room.

[temeculaguy]

Want to know the definition of narcissism, it’s in this next sentence. Rich was talking about me.

First off, it is so well established that realty trac blows. Rt.66, your constant defense of it is troubling, almost makes me think you are somehow connected to them. Maybe you just love them like I love my iphone, but we’ve had this argument and conducted sample investigations over and over, they report 200%-300% more entries than competing websites in my research and all the pay websites kinda suck in the accuracy column. You want to read the black and white supermarket tabloids, knock yourself out, but understand when you base everything on numbers that everyone else laughs at, you will not be preaching to the choir, even the other bears don’t usually join you.

Back to the narcissism, I was one of the bears here, as the prices changed, as the formulas changed, as the graphs changed, so did my opinion.
Sometimes CAR, JP, cellar,sduude and others throw up good arguments and I go back to nuetral for a while, even feel my bearinsh roots. In reality, none of those posters are perma bears, they are just stuck in certain sticky markets. But the real disapointment is the perma bears lately just suck, their arguments are cliche and remind me of the polar opposite circa 2005 David Lereah.

This how I see it, the camp is a moving target. When I got out in 2005 my place was appraised at 600k thereabouts. the following timeline only applies to my specific situation, my specific purchase, i know the beach hasn’t dropped like this, but this is the last few years, what the camps were saying and how I viewed them, overly simplified for fun of course.

600k

bull-“r/e always goes up”
bear-“this makes no sense”
TG= advantage bear, action-sell and rent

same house 500k

bull-“it’s cheaper, great time to buy”
bear-“the historical value still doesn’t work”
TG- advantage bear, action, keep renting

same house 400k

bull-” it’s a great time to buy”
bear-“financing changes and rent/price ratio still out of whack”
TG-advantage bear, find piggington, rent, goof off

same house 300k

bull-“half off, rent nuetral, less risk, nearing building cost”
bear-“unemployment, spam, ammo, obama, tsuinami”
TG-It’s a tie, I’m gonna start making lowball offers

same house, scratch that, better house, under 300k, well under.

bull, “cheaper to buy than rent, back to pre bubble fundamentals”
bear”obama, unemployment, realtytrac, tsuinami, tsuinami, tsuinami, tsuinami
TG “advantage bull, where’s my checkbook”

[temeculaguy]

Want to know the definition of narcissism, it’s in this next sentence. Rich was talking about me.

First off, it is so well established that realty trac blows. Rt.66, your constant defense of it is troubling, almost makes me think you are somehow connected to them. Maybe you just love them like I love my iphone, but we’ve had this argument and conducted sample investigations over and over, they report 200%-300% more entries than competing websites in my research and all the pay websites kinda suck in the accuracy column. You want to read the black and white supermarket tabloids, knock yourself out, but understand when you base everything on numbers that everyone else laughs at, you will not be preaching to the choir, even the other bears don’t usually join you.

Back to the narcissism, I was one of the bears here, as the prices changed, as the formulas changed, as the graphs changed, so did my opinion.
Sometimes CAR, JP, cellar,sduude and others throw up good arguments and I go back to nuetral for a while, even feel my bearinsh roots. In reality, none of those posters are perma bears, they are just stuck in certain sticky markets. But the real disapointment is the perma bears lately just suck, their arguments are cliche and remind me of the polar opposite circa 2005 David Lereah.

This how I see it, the camp is a moving target. When I got out in 2005 my place was appraised at 600k thereabouts. the following timeline only applies to my specific situation, my specific purchase, i know the beach hasn’t dropped like this, but this is the last few years, what the camps were saying and how I viewed them, overly simplified for fun of course.

600k

bull-“r/e always goes up”
bear-“this makes no sense”
TG= advantage bear, action-sell and rent

same house 500k

bull-“it’s cheaper, great time to buy”
bear-“the historical value still doesn’t work”
TG- advantage bear, action, keep renting

same house 400k

bull-” it’s a great time to buy”
bear-“financing changes and rent/price ratio still out of whack”
TG-advantage bear, find piggington, rent, goof off

same house 300k

bull-“half off, rent nuetral, less risk, nearing building cost”
bear-“unemployment, spam, ammo, obama, tsuinami”
TG-It’s a tie, I’m gonna start making lowball offers

same house, scratch that, better house, under 300k, well under.

bull, “cheaper to buy than rent, back to pre bubble fundamentals”
bear”obama, unemployment, realtytrac, tsuinami, tsuinami, tsuinami, tsuinami
TG “advantage bull, where’s my checkbook”

[temeculaguy]

Want to know the definition of narcissism, it’s in this next sentence. Rich was talking about me.

First off, it is so well established that realty trac blows. Rt.66, your constant defense of it is troubling, almost makes me think you are somehow connected to them. Maybe you just love them like I love my iphone, but we’ve had this argument and conducted sample investigations over and over, they report 200%-300% more entries than competing websites in my research and all the pay websites kinda suck in the accuracy column. You want to read the black and white supermarket tabloids, knock yourself out, but understand when you base everything on numbers that everyone else laughs at, you will not be preaching to the choir, even the other bears don’t usually join you.

Back to the narcissism, I was one of the bears here, as the prices changed, as the formulas changed, as the graphs changed, so did my opinion.
Sometimes CAR, JP, cellar,sduude and others throw up good arguments and I go back to nuetral for a while, even feel my bearinsh roots. In reality, none of those posters are perma bears, they are just stuck in certain sticky markets. But the real disapointment is the perma bears lately just suck, their arguments are cliche and remind me of the polar opposite circa 2005 David Lereah.

This how I see it, the camp is a moving target. When I got out in 2005 my place was appraised at 600k thereabouts. the following timeline only applies to my specific situation, my specific purchase, i know the beach hasn’t dropped like this, but this is the last few years, what the camps were saying and how I viewed them, overly simplified for fun of course.

600k

bull-“r/e always goes up”
bear-“this makes no sense”
TG= advantage bear, action-sell and rent

same house 500k

bull-“it’s cheaper, great time to buy”
bear-“the historical value still doesn’t work”
TG- advantage bear, action, keep renting

same house 400k

bull-” it’s a great time to buy”
bear-“financing changes and rent/price ratio still out of whack”
TG-advantage bear, find piggington, rent, goof off

same house 300k

bull-“half off, rent nuetral, less risk, nearing building cost”
bear-“unemployment, spam, ammo, obama, tsuinami”
TG-It’s a tie, I’m gonna start making lowball offers

same house, scratch that, better house, under 300k, well under.

bull, “cheaper to buy than rent, back to pre bubble fundamentals”
bear”obama, unemployment, realtytrac, tsuinami, tsuinami, tsuinami, tsuinami
TG “advantage bull, where’s my checkbook”

[temeculaguy]

Want to know the definition of narcissism, it’s in this next sentence. Rich was talking about me.

First off, it is so well established that realty trac blows. Rt.66, your constant defense of it is troubling, almost makes me think you are somehow connected to them. Maybe you just love them like I love my iphone, but we’ve had this argument and conducted sample investigations over and over, they report 200%-300% more entries than competing websites in my research and all the pay websites kinda suck in the accuracy column. You want to read the black and white supermarket tabloids, knock yourself out, but understand when you base everything on numbers that everyone else laughs at, you will not be preaching to the choir, even the other bears don’t usually join you.

Back to the narcissism, I was one of the bears here, as the prices changed, as the formulas changed, as the graphs changed, so did my opinion.
Sometimes CAR, JP, cellar,sduude and others throw up good arguments and I go back to nuetral for a while, even feel my bearinsh roots. In reality, none of those posters are perma bears, they are just stuck in certain sticky markets. But the real disapointment is the perma bears lately just suck, their arguments are cliche and remind me of the polar opposite circa 2005 David Lereah.

This how I see it, the camp is a moving target. When I got out in 2005 my place was appraised at 600k thereabouts. the following timeline only applies to my specific situation, my specific purchase, i know the beach hasn’t dropped like this, but this is the last few years, what the camps were saying and how I viewed them, overly simplified for fun of course.

600k

bull-“r/e always goes up”
bear-“this makes no sense”
TG= advantage bear, action-sell and rent

same house 500k

bull-“it’s cheaper, great time to buy”
bear-“the historical value still doesn’t work”
TG- advantage bear, action, keep renting

same house 400k

bull-” it’s a great time to buy”
bear-“financing changes and rent/price ratio still out of whack”
TG-advantage bear, find piggington, rent, goof off

same house 300k

bull-“half off, rent nuetral, less risk, nearing building cost”
bear-“unemployment, spam, ammo, obama, tsuinami”
TG-It’s a tie, I’m gonna start making lowball offers

same house, scratch that, better house, under 300k, well under.

bull, “cheaper to buy than rent, back to pre bubble fundamentals”
bear”obama, unemployment, realtytrac, tsuinami, tsuinami, tsuinami, tsuinami
TG “advantage bull, where’s my checkbook”

[temeculaguy]

Want to know the definition of narcissism, it’s in this next sentence. Rich was talking about me.

First off, it is so well established that realty trac blows. Rt.66, your constant defense of it is troubling, almost makes me think you are somehow connected to them. Maybe you just love them like I love my iphone, but we’ve had this argument and conducted sample investigations over and over, they report 200%-300% more entries than competing websites in my research and all the pay websites kinda suck in the accuracy column. You want to read the black and white supermarket tabloids, knock yourself out, but understand when you base everything on numbers that everyone else laughs at, you will not be preaching to the choir, even the other bears don’t usually join you.

Back to the narcissism, I was one of the bears here, as the prices changed, as the formulas changed, as the graphs changed, so did my opinion.
Sometimes CAR, JP, cellar,sduude and others throw up good arguments and I go back to nuetral for a while, even feel my bearinsh roots. In reality, none of those posters are perma bears, they are just stuck in certain sticky markets. But the real disapointment is the perma bears lately just suck, their arguments are cliche and remind me of the polar opposite circa 2005 David Lereah.

This how I see it, the camp is a moving target. When I got out in 2005 my place was appraised at 600k thereabouts. the following timeline only applies to my specific situation, my specific purchase, i know the beach hasn’t dropped like this, but this is the last few years, what the camps were saying and how I viewed them, overly simplified for fun of course.

600k

bull-“r/e always goes up”
bear-“this makes no sense”
TG= advantage bear, action-sell and rent

same house 500k

bull-“it’s cheaper, great time to buy”
bear-“the historical value still doesn’t work”
TG- advantage bear, action, keep renting

same house 400k

bull-” it’s a great time to buy”
bear-“financing changes and rent/price ratio still out of whack”
TG-advantage bear, find piggington, rent, goof off

same house 300k

bull-“half off, rent nuetral, less risk, nearing building cost”
bear-“unemployment, spam, ammo, obama, tsuinami”
TG-It’s a tie, I’m gonna start making lowball offers

same house, scratch that, better house, under 300k, well under.

bull, “cheaper to buy than rent, back to pre bubble fundamentals”
bear”obama, unemployment, realtytrac, tsuinami, tsuinami, tsuinami, tsuinami
TG “advantage bull, where’s my checkbook”

[jpinpb]

TG – You did good. If I were looking in Temecula, I would’ve bought too. Temecula has had a major drop from peak and incredible deals. If it makes sense, you’re not looking to flip, plan on being around for a little while, then go for it.

I have not seen anything that fit my criteria that makes sense in the areas I’m looking. I’ve seen plenty of investment properties that make sense, but I have enough of that. Looking for something for me and so rent until I can take out my checkbook.

I don’t feel the pressure to buy either. Some say we’re at bottom. I really believe it is area specific. If we’re at bottom at the coast, then I’ll have to wait until all my other properties go way up again, sell them and then buy. The coast still does not make sense, but maybe it never will and so I’ll just rent forever. I’m ok w/that, too.

I managed to not get pressured buying during the bubble and I’m not about to get pressured into buying b/c people say we’re at bottom. If we are at bottom, we could be flatlining here for a little while.

[jpinpb]

TG – You did good. If I were looking in Temecula, I would’ve bought too. Temecula has had a major drop from peak and incredible deals. If it makes sense, you’re not looking to flip, plan on being around for a little while, then go for it.

I have not seen anything that fit my criteria that makes sense in the areas I’m looking. I’ve seen plenty of investment properties that make sense, but I have enough of that. Looking for something for me and so rent until I can take out my checkbook.

I don’t feel the pressure to buy either. Some say we’re at bottom. I really believe it is area specific. If we’re at bottom at the coast, then I’ll have to wait until all my other properties go way up again, sell them and then buy. The coast still does not make sense, but maybe it never will and so I’ll just rent forever. I’m ok w/that, too.

I managed to not get pressured buying during the bubble and I’m not about to get pressured into buying b/c people say we’re at bottom. If we are at bottom, we could be flatlining here for a little while.

[jpinpb]

TG – You did good. If I were looking in Temecula, I would’ve bought too. Temecula has had a major drop from peak and incredible deals. If it makes sense, you’re not looking to flip, plan on being around for a little while, then go for it.

I have not seen anything that fit my criteria that makes sense in the areas I’m looking. I’ve seen plenty of investment properties that make sense, but I have enough of that. Looking for something for me and so rent until I can take out my checkbook.

I don’t feel the pressure to buy either. Some say we’re at bottom. I really believe it is area specific. If we’re at bottom at the coast, then I’ll have to wait until all my other properties go way up again, sell them and then buy. The coast still does not make sense, but maybe it never will and so I’ll just rent forever. I’m ok w/that, too.

I managed to not get pressured buying during the bubble and I’m not about to get pressured into buying b/c people say we’re at bottom. If we are at bottom, we could be flatlining here for a little while.

[jpinpb]

TG – You did good. If I were looking in Temecula, I would’ve bought too. Temecula has had a major drop from peak and incredible deals. If it makes sense, you’re not looking to flip, plan on being around for a little while, then go for it.

I have not seen anything that fit my criteria that makes sense in the areas I’m looking. I’ve seen plenty of investment properties that make sense, but I have enough of that. Looking for something for me and so rent until I can take out my checkbook.

I don’t feel the pressure to buy either. Some say we’re at bottom. I really believe it is area specific. If we’re at bottom at the coast, then I’ll have to wait until all my other properties go way up again, sell them and then buy. The coast still does not make sense, but maybe it never will and so I’ll just rent forever. I’m ok w/that, too.

I managed to not get pressured buying during the bubble and I’m not about to get pressured into buying b/c people say we’re at bottom. If we are at bottom, we could be flatlining here for a little while.

[jpinpb]

TG – You did good. If I were looking in Temecula, I would’ve bought too. Temecula has had a major drop from peak and incredible deals. If it makes sense, you’re not looking to flip, plan on being around for a little while, then go for it.

I have not seen anything that fit my criteria that makes sense in the areas I’m looking. I’ve seen plenty of investment properties that make sense, but I have enough of that. Looking for something for me and so rent until I can take out my checkbook.

I don’t feel the pressure to buy either. Some say we’re at bottom. I really believe it is area specific. If we’re at bottom at the coast, then I’ll have to wait until all my other properties go way up again, sell them and then buy. The coast still does not make sense, but maybe it never will and so I’ll just rent forever. I’m ok w/that, too.

I managed to not get pressured buying during the bubble and I’m not about to get pressured into buying b/c people say we’re at bottom. If we are at bottom, we could be flatlining here for a little while.

[enron_by_the_sea]

Let me post following line from Jim Grant’s latest article:
“The error of optimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born not an infant, but a giant.”

[enron_by_the_sea]

Let me post following line from Jim Grant’s latest article:
“The error of optimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born not an infant, but a giant.”

[enron_by_the_sea]

Let me post following line from Jim Grant’s latest article:
“The error of optimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born not an infant, but a giant.”

[enron_by_the_sea]

Let me post following line from Jim Grant’s latest article:
“The error of optimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born not an infant, but a giant.”

[Author]

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