The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[NotCranky]

[quote=peterb]The core problem with C-S is that it tracks transactions. This market is now so heavily manipulated by govt and banking intervention and suspension of law that transactional analysis is not very meaningful if one is trying to determine market direction or strength.[/quote]

Whatever rationale one uses to be an “end of bubble denier” may turn out to be useless as well. If something happens long enough, eventually that has to be called reality, or factual, or historic or whatever, even if it doesn’t seem how things “should be”. The playing field and rules are drastically changing, yes you can probably rightfully call it cheating. Why be surprised that the score is different than it would be under the old “normal” rules?

Not to say that I know what is going to happen. Not predicting that real estate will be a cake walk for anyone. It just doesn’t seem the bears are as open minded as they could be.

[sdrealtor]

ROTFLMAO..Did he actually say numbers dont lie? What a moron. Of course they do, they say whatever you want them to. Back in my CPA days we had a joke. Client walks into his CPA’s office and says what does 1+1 equal? CPA goes over to the window and pulls the shade down before asking “what do you want to equal?”

Lets assume your numbers are accurate (which I know they arent but who gives a damn). There are over 4,000 MLS listings in contingent status (i.e. short sales most likely in those numbers you are quoting). There are 6700 MLS listings in pending status (conservatively 1/3rd of them are short sales). Thats about 6500 properties you are claiming as shadow inventory that are currently being digested by this raging market at full retail prices. There goes more than half of your shadow inventory. Its not hiding anywhere. Its sitting on the MLS under contract with piles of back up offers. That doesnt even consider all the loan mods in process.

Read my post above. It was said by one of the top Bear analysts on Wall St. He understands that the bear case will always appear stronger because it is based on rational current data. He is also smart of to understand that isnt always correct.

I dont want this to end as I am making a killing off it. If the market goes down for at least 2 more years like it has, my business will flourish. If it turns around my business will suffer dearly. I hope you (Rt 66) are right and it struggles for another 5 to 10 years but know and see enough to understand that is unlikely to be true.

Lets be clear on one thing. We are not saying its a great time to buy. What we are saying is “You are a moron!”

[sdrealtor]

ROTFLMAO..Did he actually say numbers dont lie? What a moron. Of course they do, they say whatever you want them to. Back in my CPA days we had a joke. Client walks into his CPA’s office and says what does 1+1 equal? CPA goes over to the window and pulls the shade down before asking “what do you want to equal?”

Lets assume your numbers are accurate (which I know they arent but who gives a damn). There are over 4,000 MLS listings in contingent status (i.e. short sales most likely in those numbers you are quoting). There are 6700 MLS listings in pending status (conservatively 1/3rd of them are short sales). Thats about 6500 properties you are claiming as shadow inventory that are currently being digested by this raging market at full retail prices. There goes more than half of your shadow inventory. Its not hiding anywhere. Its sitting on the MLS under contract with piles of back up offers. That doesnt even consider all the loan mods in process.

Read my post above. It was said by one of the top Bear analysts on Wall St. He understands that the bear case will always appear stronger because it is based on rational current data. He is also smart of to understand that isnt always correct.

I dont want this to end as I am making a killing off it. If the market goes down for at least 2 more years like it has, my business will flourish. If it turns around my business will suffer dearly. I hope you (Rt 66) are right and it struggles for another 5 to 10 years but know and see enough to understand that is unlikely to be true.

Lets be clear on one thing. We are not saying its a great time to buy. What we are saying is “You are a moron!”

[sdrealtor]

ROTFLMAO..Did he actually say numbers dont lie? What a moron. Of course they do, they say whatever you want them to. Back in my CPA days we had a joke. Client walks into his CPA’s office and says what does 1+1 equal? CPA goes over to the window and pulls the shade down before asking “what do you want to equal?”

Lets assume your numbers are accurate (which I know they arent but who gives a damn). There are over 4,000 MLS listings in contingent status (i.e. short sales most likely in those numbers you are quoting). There are 6700 MLS listings in pending status (conservatively 1/3rd of them are short sales). Thats about 6500 properties you are claiming as shadow inventory that are currently being digested by this raging market at full retail prices. There goes more than half of your shadow inventory. Its not hiding anywhere. Its sitting on the MLS under contract with piles of back up offers. That doesnt even consider all the loan mods in process.

Read my post above. It was said by one of the top Bear analysts on Wall St. He understands that the bear case will always appear stronger because it is based on rational current data. He is also smart of to understand that isnt always correct.

I dont want this to end as I am making a killing off it. If the market goes down for at least 2 more years like it has, my business will flourish. If it turns around my business will suffer dearly. I hope you (Rt 66) are right and it struggles for another 5 to 10 years but know and see enough to understand that is unlikely to be true.

Lets be clear on one thing. We are not saying its a great time to buy. What we are saying is “You are a moron!”

[sdrealtor]

ROTFLMAO..Did he actually say numbers dont lie? What a moron. Of course they do, they say whatever you want them to. Back in my CPA days we had a joke. Client walks into his CPA’s office and says what does 1+1 equal? CPA goes over to the window and pulls the shade down before asking “what do you want to equal?”

Lets assume your numbers are accurate (which I know they arent but who gives a damn). There are over 4,000 MLS listings in contingent status (i.e. short sales most likely in those numbers you are quoting). There are 6700 MLS listings in pending status (conservatively 1/3rd of them are short sales). Thats about 6500 properties you are claiming as shadow inventory that are currently being digested by this raging market at full retail prices. There goes more than half of your shadow inventory. Its not hiding anywhere. Its sitting on the MLS under contract with piles of back up offers. That doesnt even consider all the loan mods in process.

Read my post above. It was said by one of the top Bear analysts on Wall St. He understands that the bear case will always appear stronger because it is based on rational current data. He is also smart of to understand that isnt always correct.

I dont want this to end as I am making a killing off it. If the market goes down for at least 2 more years like it has, my business will flourish. If it turns around my business will suffer dearly. I hope you (Rt 66) are right and it struggles for another 5 to 10 years but know and see enough to understand that is unlikely to be true.

Lets be clear on one thing. We are not saying its a great time to buy. What we are saying is “You are a moron!”

[sdrealtor]

ROTFLMAO..Did he actually say numbers dont lie? What a moron. Of course they do, they say whatever you want them to. Back in my CPA days we had a joke. Client walks into his CPA’s office and says what does 1+1 equal? CPA goes over to the window and pulls the shade down before asking “what do you want to equal?”

Lets assume your numbers are accurate (which I know they arent but who gives a damn). There are over 4,000 MLS listings in contingent status (i.e. short sales most likely in those numbers you are quoting). There are 6700 MLS listings in pending status (conservatively 1/3rd of them are short sales). Thats about 6500 properties you are claiming as shadow inventory that are currently being digested by this raging market at full retail prices. There goes more than half of your shadow inventory. Its not hiding anywhere. Its sitting on the MLS under contract with piles of back up offers. That doesnt even consider all the loan mods in process.

Read my post above. It was said by one of the top Bear analysts on Wall St. He understands that the bear case will always appear stronger because it is based on rational current data. He is also smart of to understand that isnt always correct.

I dont want this to end as I am making a killing off it. If the market goes down for at least 2 more years like it has, my business will flourish. If it turns around my business will suffer dearly. I hope you (Rt 66) are right and it struggles for another 5 to 10 years but know and see enough to understand that is unlikely to be true.

Lets be clear on one thing. We are not saying its a great time to buy. What we are saying is “You are a moron!”

[jpinpb]

[quote=sdrealtor] He pointed out that the bears bring rational facts based upon what is actually going on right now. On the otherhand the bulls case is irrational and based upon a better tomorrow regardless of what the facts are today. BY definition the bulls hypothesis requires a change for the better in the future.

His point is that at face value the bears will always have what seems to be the stronger argument. In every case the bears will be more rational, more fact based and better substantiated. In spite of that, they obviously arent always right because things change and things can get better.
[/quote]

So the bulls are optimist, hoping things will change for the better. Bears not always be right b/c looking at what’s happening today, true, the prospects don’t look optimistic. I would like to be. I have asked people often to give me some solid reason, something that would propel the economy forward and cause prices to rise. Other than looming inflation, I haven’t gotten a response what the impetus would be.

[quote=temeculaguy]
But it wouldn’t affect the month over month numbers.
[/quote]

What if the banks stopped sending out the NODs at a certain point when the decline started. First it was after 3 months you would get a NOD, then longer and longer to send it out and now not at all. So you stopped paying a couple of months ago and no NOD. Now the NODs look like they’re declining, when the banks have recently just stopped bothering sending out NODs.

[jpinpb]

[quote=sdrealtor] He pointed out that the bears bring rational facts based upon what is actually going on right now. On the otherhand the bulls case is irrational and based upon a better tomorrow regardless of what the facts are today. BY definition the bulls hypothesis requires a change for the better in the future.

His point is that at face value the bears will always have what seems to be the stronger argument. In every case the bears will be more rational, more fact based and better substantiated. In spite of that, they obviously arent always right because things change and things can get better.
[/quote]

So the bulls are optimist, hoping things will change for the better. Bears not always be right b/c looking at what’s happening today, true, the prospects don’t look optimistic. I would like to be. I have asked people often to give me some solid reason, something that would propel the economy forward and cause prices to rise. Other than looming inflation, I haven’t gotten a response what the impetus would be.

[quote=temeculaguy]
But it wouldn’t affect the month over month numbers.
[/quote]

What if the banks stopped sending out the NODs at a certain point when the decline started. First it was after 3 months you would get a NOD, then longer and longer to send it out and now not at all. So you stopped paying a couple of months ago and no NOD. Now the NODs look like they’re declining, when the banks have recently just stopped bothering sending out NODs.

[jpinpb]

[quote=sdrealtor] He pointed out that the bears bring rational facts based upon what is actually going on right now. On the otherhand the bulls case is irrational and based upon a better tomorrow regardless of what the facts are today. BY definition the bulls hypothesis requires a change for the better in the future.

His point is that at face value the bears will always have what seems to be the stronger argument. In every case the bears will be more rational, more fact based and better substantiated. In spite of that, they obviously arent always right because things change and things can get better.
[/quote]

So the bulls are optimist, hoping things will change for the better. Bears not always be right b/c looking at what’s happening today, true, the prospects don’t look optimistic. I would like to be. I have asked people often to give me some solid reason, something that would propel the economy forward and cause prices to rise. Other than looming inflation, I haven’t gotten a response what the impetus would be.

[quote=temeculaguy]
But it wouldn’t affect the month over month numbers.
[/quote]

What if the banks stopped sending out the NODs at a certain point when the decline started. First it was after 3 months you would get a NOD, then longer and longer to send it out and now not at all. So you stopped paying a couple of months ago and no NOD. Now the NODs look like they’re declining, when the banks have recently just stopped bothering sending out NODs.

[jpinpb]

[quote=sdrealtor] He pointed out that the bears bring rational facts based upon what is actually going on right now. On the otherhand the bulls case is irrational and based upon a better tomorrow regardless of what the facts are today. BY definition the bulls hypothesis requires a change for the better in the future.

His point is that at face value the bears will always have what seems to be the stronger argument. In every case the bears will be more rational, more fact based and better substantiated. In spite of that, they obviously arent always right because things change and things can get better.
[/quote]

So the bulls are optimist, hoping things will change for the better. Bears not always be right b/c looking at what’s happening today, true, the prospects don’t look optimistic. I would like to be. I have asked people often to give me some solid reason, something that would propel the economy forward and cause prices to rise. Other than looming inflation, I haven’t gotten a response what the impetus would be.

[quote=temeculaguy]
But it wouldn’t affect the month over month numbers.
[/quote]

What if the banks stopped sending out the NODs at a certain point when the decline started. First it was after 3 months you would get a NOD, then longer and longer to send it out and now not at all. So you stopped paying a couple of months ago and no NOD. Now the NODs look like they’re declining, when the banks have recently just stopped bothering sending out NODs.

[jpinpb]

[quote=sdrealtor] He pointed out that the bears bring rational facts based upon what is actually going on right now. On the otherhand the bulls case is irrational and based upon a better tomorrow regardless of what the facts are today. BY definition the bulls hypothesis requires a change for the better in the future.

His point is that at face value the bears will always have what seems to be the stronger argument. In every case the bears will be more rational, more fact based and better substantiated. In spite of that, they obviously arent always right because things change and things can get better.
[/quote]

So the bulls are optimist, hoping things will change for the better. Bears not always be right b/c looking at what’s happening today, true, the prospects don’t look optimistic. I would like to be. I have asked people often to give me some solid reason, something that would propel the economy forward and cause prices to rise. Other than looming inflation, I haven’t gotten a response what the impetus would be.

[quote=temeculaguy]
But it wouldn’t affect the month over month numbers.
[/quote]

What if the banks stopped sending out the NODs at a certain point when the decline started. First it was after 3 months you would get a NOD, then longer and longer to send it out and now not at all. So you stopped paying a couple of months ago and no NOD. Now the NODs look like they’re declining, when the banks have recently just stopped bothering sending out NODs.

[SD Realtor]

I would not say it is a great time to buy either. I would like to see a posting where any of the regular realtors who post here say that.

Please point me to that post.

Also as a fact to consider, of the shadow inventory there are MLS listings that were sold that were distressed properties purchased by investors that would also reduce your shadow inventory count but now show up as a MLS distressed sale…

I guess reporting what we see which is strong sales activity is misconstrued by some as a “now is time to buy” mantra.

I do not understand why that is.

[SD Realtor]

I would not say it is a great time to buy either. I would like to see a posting where any of the regular realtors who post here say that.

Please point me to that post.

Also as a fact to consider, of the shadow inventory there are MLS listings that were sold that were distressed properties purchased by investors that would also reduce your shadow inventory count but now show up as a MLS distressed sale…

I guess reporting what we see which is strong sales activity is misconstrued by some as a “now is time to buy” mantra.

I do not understand why that is.

[SD Realtor]

I would not say it is a great time to buy either. I would like to see a posting where any of the regular realtors who post here say that.

Please point me to that post.

Also as a fact to consider, of the shadow inventory there are MLS listings that were sold that were distressed properties purchased by investors that would also reduce your shadow inventory count but now show up as a MLS distressed sale…

I guess reporting what we see which is strong sales activity is misconstrued by some as a “now is time to buy” mantra.

I do not understand why that is.

[SD Realtor]

I would not say it is a great time to buy either. I would like to see a posting where any of the regular realtors who post here say that.

Please point me to that post.

Also as a fact to consider, of the shadow inventory there are MLS listings that were sold that were distressed properties purchased by investors that would also reduce your shadow inventory count but now show up as a MLS distressed sale…

I guess reporting what we see which is strong sales activity is misconstrued by some as a “now is time to buy” mantra.

I do not understand why that is.

[Author]

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