The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[desmond]

The Rancho CA cheerleaders are starting to get nervous:

“I have a couple of new neighbors who recently bought their houses as shorts and report pretty smooth transactions and their houses are in a hell of a lot better shape than mine was”

But no shadow inventory!

[peterb]

The core problem with C-S is that it tracks transactions. This market is now so heavily manipulated by govt and banking intervention and suspension of law that transactional analysis is not very meaningful if one is trying to determine market direction or strength.

[peterb]

The core problem with C-S is that it tracks transactions. This market is now so heavily manipulated by govt and banking intervention and suspension of law that transactional analysis is not very meaningful if one is trying to determine market direction or strength.

[peterb]

The core problem with C-S is that it tracks transactions. This market is now so heavily manipulated by govt and banking intervention and suspension of law that transactional analysis is not very meaningful if one is trying to determine market direction or strength.

[peterb]

The core problem with C-S is that it tracks transactions. This market is now so heavily manipulated by govt and banking intervention and suspension of law that transactional analysis is not very meaningful if one is trying to determine market direction or strength.

[peterb]

The core problem with C-S is that it tracks transactions. This market is now so heavily manipulated by govt and banking intervention and suspension of law that transactional analysis is not very meaningful if one is trying to determine market direction or strength.

[Rt.66]

Here’s a new foreclosure resource called RealQuest which is:

• Used by 9 of the top 10 lending institutions
• Updated daily
• County records direct from the source

http://www.realquestinvestor.com/rq/default.aspx#

A search of San Diego, ca (NOT SD county, just SD) shows 10,237 Auctions, Preforeclosures and Bank Owned properties.

Note this list does not have the “Resale/MLS” numbers like RTrac which equals 1494 homes. So, let’s subtract the 1494 “Resale/MLS” number from RTrac’s number of 14696 and we get 13,202. RTrac shows 13,202 RealQuest shows 10,237. Not too far apart and now we have a consensus.

Let’s meet in the middle and call it 11,719 distressed mortgages in SD alone.

Holly Cow batman I thought “The worst has come and gone already”? It’s a great time to Buy!!!

[Rt.66]

Here’s a new foreclosure resource called RealQuest which is:

• Used by 9 of the top 10 lending institutions
• Updated daily
• County records direct from the source

http://www.realquestinvestor.com/rq/default.aspx#

A search of San Diego, ca (NOT SD county, just SD) shows 10,237 Auctions, Preforeclosures and Bank Owned properties.

Note this list does not have the “Resale/MLS” numbers like RTrac which equals 1494 homes. So, let’s subtract the 1494 “Resale/MLS” number from RTrac’s number of 14696 and we get 13,202. RTrac shows 13,202 RealQuest shows 10,237. Not too far apart and now we have a consensus.

Let’s meet in the middle and call it 11,719 distressed mortgages in SD alone.

Holly Cow batman I thought “The worst has come and gone already”? It’s a great time to Buy!!!

[Rt.66]

Here’s a new foreclosure resource called RealQuest which is:

• Used by 9 of the top 10 lending institutions
• Updated daily
• County records direct from the source

http://www.realquestinvestor.com/rq/default.aspx#

A search of San Diego, ca (NOT SD county, just SD) shows 10,237 Auctions, Preforeclosures and Bank Owned properties.

Note this list does not have the “Resale/MLS” numbers like RTrac which equals 1494 homes. So, let’s subtract the 1494 “Resale/MLS” number from RTrac’s number of 14696 and we get 13,202. RTrac shows 13,202 RealQuest shows 10,237. Not too far apart and now we have a consensus.

Let’s meet in the middle and call it 11,719 distressed mortgages in SD alone.

Holly Cow batman I thought “The worst has come and gone already”? It’s a great time to Buy!!!

[Rt.66]

Here’s a new foreclosure resource called RealQuest which is:

• Used by 9 of the top 10 lending institutions
• Updated daily
• County records direct from the source

http://www.realquestinvestor.com/rq/default.aspx#

A search of San Diego, ca (NOT SD county, just SD) shows 10,237 Auctions, Preforeclosures and Bank Owned properties.

Note this list does not have the “Resale/MLS” numbers like RTrac which equals 1494 homes. So, let’s subtract the 1494 “Resale/MLS” number from RTrac’s number of 14696 and we get 13,202. RTrac shows 13,202 RealQuest shows 10,237. Not too far apart and now we have a consensus.

Let’s meet in the middle and call it 11,719 distressed mortgages in SD alone.

Holly Cow batman I thought “The worst has come and gone already”? It’s a great time to Buy!!!

[Rt.66]

Here’s a new foreclosure resource called RealQuest which is:

• Used by 9 of the top 10 lending institutions
• Updated daily
• County records direct from the source

http://www.realquestinvestor.com/rq/default.aspx#

A search of San Diego, ca (NOT SD county, just SD) shows 10,237 Auctions, Preforeclosures and Bank Owned properties.

Note this list does not have the “Resale/MLS” numbers like RTrac which equals 1494 homes. So, let’s subtract the 1494 “Resale/MLS” number from RTrac’s number of 14696 and we get 13,202. RTrac shows 13,202 RealQuest shows 10,237. Not too far apart and now we have a consensus.

Let’s meet in the middle and call it 11,719 distressed mortgages in SD alone.

Holly Cow batman I thought “The worst has come and gone already”? It’s a great time to Buy!!!

[NotCranky]

[quote=peterb]The core problem with C-S is that it tracks transactions. This market is now so heavily manipulated by govt and banking intervention and suspension of law that transactional analysis is not very meaningful if one is trying to determine market direction or strength.[/quote]

Whatever rationale one uses to be an “end of bubble denier” may turn out to be useless as well. If something happens long enough, eventually that has to be called reality, or factual, or historic or whatever, even if it doesn’t seem how things “should be”. The playing field and rules are drastically changing, yes you can probably rightfully call it cheating. Why be surprised that the score is different than it would be under the old “normal” rules?

Not to say that I know what is going to happen. Not predicting that real estate will be a cake walk for anyone. It just doesn’t seem the bears are as open minded as they could be.

[NotCranky]

[quote=peterb]The core problem with C-S is that it tracks transactions. This market is now so heavily manipulated by govt and banking intervention and suspension of law that transactional analysis is not very meaningful if one is trying to determine market direction or strength.[/quote]

Whatever rationale one uses to be an “end of bubble denier” may turn out to be useless as well. If something happens long enough, eventually that has to be called reality, or factual, or historic or whatever, even if it doesn’t seem how things “should be”. The playing field and rules are drastically changing, yes you can probably rightfully call it cheating. Why be surprised that the score is different than it would be under the old “normal” rules?

Not to say that I know what is going to happen. Not predicting that real estate will be a cake walk for anyone. It just doesn’t seem the bears are as open minded as they could be.

[NotCranky]

[quote=peterb]The core problem with C-S is that it tracks transactions. This market is now so heavily manipulated by govt and banking intervention and suspension of law that transactional analysis is not very meaningful if one is trying to determine market direction or strength.[/quote]

Whatever rationale one uses to be an “end of bubble denier” may turn out to be useless as well. If something happens long enough, eventually that has to be called reality, or factual, or historic or whatever, even if it doesn’t seem how things “should be”. The playing field and rules are drastically changing, yes you can probably rightfully call it cheating. Why be surprised that the score is different than it would be under the old “normal” rules?

Not to say that I know what is going to happen. Not predicting that real estate will be a cake walk for anyone. It just doesn’t seem the bears are as open minded as they could be.

[NotCranky]

[quote=peterb]The core problem with C-S is that it tracks transactions. This market is now so heavily manipulated by govt and banking intervention and suspension of law that transactional analysis is not very meaningful if one is trying to determine market direction or strength.[/quote]

Whatever rationale one uses to be an “end of bubble denier” may turn out to be useless as well. If something happens long enough, eventually that has to be called reality, or factual, or historic or whatever, even if it doesn’t seem how things “should be”. The playing field and rules are drastically changing, yes you can probably rightfully call it cheating. Why be surprised that the score is different than it would be under the old “normal” rules?

Not to say that I know what is going to happen. Not predicting that real estate will be a cake walk for anyone. It just doesn’t seem the bears are as open minded as they could be.

[Author]

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