The next chunk down in Temecula

[scaredyclassic]

i would be willing to live in a garage.

Drink Heavily.

[Baron von Rothschild]

My wife and I are would-be Temecula knife catchers. We sold our San Diego condo in 2005 and parked the equity to wait out the crash. The new pricing in Temecula makes us suddenly feel semi rich, and the idea of buying a house we never dreamed of for slightly more than our house fund is intoxicating…

So, we’re waiting. Why? Because if cold-hearted rational people like us are tempted to knife catch, then the temptation must be utterly irresistable to most others. That means the recent flurry of buyers is just a natural increase in demand after a price drop. These buyers will be in infinitely better shape than the 2005-2007 crowd since the price can only drop another 20-30% (and that’s on the lower current prices). I imagine the new demand will exhause itself by July 20, and the heat will be 100+ degrees. I think by then my downside exposure will be 10%, and the advantage of being both settled in advance of the school year (our first is entering kindegarten) and holding a hard asset (think inflation) will be make the decision a weak “buy”.

Thoughts? Especially, TG.

[Baron von Rothschild]

My wife and I are would-be Temecula knife catchers. We sold our San Diego condo in 2005 and parked the equity to wait out the crash. The new pricing in Temecula makes us suddenly feel semi rich, and the idea of buying a house we never dreamed of for slightly more than our house fund is intoxicating…

So, we’re waiting. Why? Because if cold-hearted rational people like us are tempted to knife catch, then the temptation must be utterly irresistable to most others. That means the recent flurry of buyers is just a natural increase in demand after a price drop. These buyers will be in infinitely better shape than the 2005-2007 crowd since the price can only drop another 20-30% (and that’s on the lower current prices). I imagine the new demand will exhause itself by July 20, and the heat will be 100+ degrees. I think by then my downside exposure will be 10%, and the advantage of being both settled in advance of the school year (our first is entering kindegarten) and holding a hard asset (think inflation) will be make the decision a weak “buy”.

Thoughts? Especially, TG.

[Baron von Rothschild]

My wife and I are would-be Temecula knife catchers. We sold our San Diego condo in 2005 and parked the equity to wait out the crash. The new pricing in Temecula makes us suddenly feel semi rich, and the idea of buying a house we never dreamed of for slightly more than our house fund is intoxicating…

So, we’re waiting. Why? Because if cold-hearted rational people like us are tempted to knife catch, then the temptation must be utterly irresistable to most others. That means the recent flurry of buyers is just a natural increase in demand after a price drop. These buyers will be in infinitely better shape than the 2005-2007 crowd since the price can only drop another 20-30% (and that’s on the lower current prices). I imagine the new demand will exhause itself by July 20, and the heat will be 100+ degrees. I think by then my downside exposure will be 10%, and the advantage of being both settled in advance of the school year (our first is entering kindegarten) and holding a hard asset (think inflation) will be make the decision a weak “buy”.

Thoughts? Especially, TG.

[Baron von Rothschild]

My wife and I are would-be Temecula knife catchers. We sold our San Diego condo in 2005 and parked the equity to wait out the crash. The new pricing in Temecula makes us suddenly feel semi rich, and the idea of buying a house we never dreamed of for slightly more than our house fund is intoxicating…

So, we’re waiting. Why? Because if cold-hearted rational people like us are tempted to knife catch, then the temptation must be utterly irresistable to most others. That means the recent flurry of buyers is just a natural increase in demand after a price drop. These buyers will be in infinitely better shape than the 2005-2007 crowd since the price can only drop another 20-30% (and that’s on the lower current prices). I imagine the new demand will exhause itself by July 20, and the heat will be 100+ degrees. I think by then my downside exposure will be 10%, and the advantage of being both settled in advance of the school year (our first is entering kindegarten) and holding a hard asset (think inflation) will be make the decision a weak “buy”.

Thoughts? Especially, TG.

[Baron von Rothschild]

My wife and I are would-be Temecula knife catchers. We sold our San Diego condo in 2005 and parked the equity to wait out the crash. The new pricing in Temecula makes us suddenly feel semi rich, and the idea of buying a house we never dreamed of for slightly more than our house fund is intoxicating…

So, we’re waiting. Why? Because if cold-hearted rational people like us are tempted to knife catch, then the temptation must be utterly irresistable to most others. That means the recent flurry of buyers is just a natural increase in demand after a price drop. These buyers will be in infinitely better shape than the 2005-2007 crowd since the price can only drop another 20-30% (and that’s on the lower current prices). I imagine the new demand will exhause itself by July 20, and the heat will be 100+ degrees. I think by then my downside exposure will be 10%, and the advantage of being both settled in advance of the school year (our first is entering kindegarten) and holding a hard asset (think inflation) will be make the decision a weak “buy”.

Thoughts? Especially, TG.

[temeculaguy]

Baron, good plan, don’t be set on July, just use that date as a re-evaluation point and be open to 90 day extensions, a while back Bugs laid out a plan where every few months you chart inventory, months supply, d.o.m. and foreclosure stats, as soon as those things all begin to trend downward, then start getting serious in your search. I don’t like mid July as a seasonal bottom in any given year (be it 08,09,10,11,or 12) for the very reason you stated, people with kids want to be in before the school year starts, Sept to Dec, months with crappy weather or smack dab in the holidays, whatever is the opposite of when there are shoppers out there is when I think it will be best in any given year. But I see your position, you don’t need the absolute bottom and your sell high buy low can’t lose even if you bought today. Paying cash or almost paying cash for a house makes a lot of this timing stuff moot.

There are some minor differences in elementary schools, there are about 15 in Temec alone so check their API on the state website and feel free to ask me any specific questions at [email protected]

Since your screen name is Rothschild, I should charge you a Mouton but I wont.

[temeculaguy]

Baron, good plan, don’t be set on July, just use that date as a re-evaluation point and be open to 90 day extensions, a while back Bugs laid out a plan where every few months you chart inventory, months supply, d.o.m. and foreclosure stats, as soon as those things all begin to trend downward, then start getting serious in your search. I don’t like mid July as a seasonal bottom in any given year (be it 08,09,10,11,or 12) for the very reason you stated, people with kids want to be in before the school year starts, Sept to Dec, months with crappy weather or smack dab in the holidays, whatever is the opposite of when there are shoppers out there is when I think it will be best in any given year. But I see your position, you don’t need the absolute bottom and your sell high buy low can’t lose even if you bought today. Paying cash or almost paying cash for a house makes a lot of this timing stuff moot.

There are some minor differences in elementary schools, there are about 15 in Temec alone so check their API on the state website and feel free to ask me any specific questions at [email protected]

Since your screen name is Rothschild, I should charge you a Mouton but I wont.

[temeculaguy]

Baron, good plan, don’t be set on July, just use that date as a re-evaluation point and be open to 90 day extensions, a while back Bugs laid out a plan where every few months you chart inventory, months supply, d.o.m. and foreclosure stats, as soon as those things all begin to trend downward, then start getting serious in your search. I don’t like mid July as a seasonal bottom in any given year (be it 08,09,10,11,or 12) for the very reason you stated, people with kids want to be in before the school year starts, Sept to Dec, months with crappy weather or smack dab in the holidays, whatever is the opposite of when there are shoppers out there is when I think it will be best in any given year. But I see your position, you don’t need the absolute bottom and your sell high buy low can’t lose even if you bought today. Paying cash or almost paying cash for a house makes a lot of this timing stuff moot.

There are some minor differences in elementary schools, there are about 15 in Temec alone so check their API on the state website and feel free to ask me any specific questions at [email protected]

Since your screen name is Rothschild, I should charge you a Mouton but I wont.

[temeculaguy]

Baron, good plan, don’t be set on July, just use that date as a re-evaluation point and be open to 90 day extensions, a while back Bugs laid out a plan where every few months you chart inventory, months supply, d.o.m. and foreclosure stats, as soon as those things all begin to trend downward, then start getting serious in your search. I don’t like mid July as a seasonal bottom in any given year (be it 08,09,10,11,or 12) for the very reason you stated, people with kids want to be in before the school year starts, Sept to Dec, months with crappy weather or smack dab in the holidays, whatever is the opposite of when there are shoppers out there is when I think it will be best in any given year. But I see your position, you don’t need the absolute bottom and your sell high buy low can’t lose even if you bought today. Paying cash or almost paying cash for a house makes a lot of this timing stuff moot.

There are some minor differences in elementary schools, there are about 15 in Temec alone so check their API on the state website and feel free to ask me any specific questions at [email protected]

Since your screen name is Rothschild, I should charge you a Mouton but I wont.

[temeculaguy]

Baron, good plan, don’t be set on July, just use that date as a re-evaluation point and be open to 90 day extensions, a while back Bugs laid out a plan where every few months you chart inventory, months supply, d.o.m. and foreclosure stats, as soon as those things all begin to trend downward, then start getting serious in your search. I don’t like mid July as a seasonal bottom in any given year (be it 08,09,10,11,or 12) for the very reason you stated, people with kids want to be in before the school year starts, Sept to Dec, months with crappy weather or smack dab in the holidays, whatever is the opposite of when there are shoppers out there is when I think it will be best in any given year. But I see your position, you don’t need the absolute bottom and your sell high buy low can’t lose even if you bought today. Paying cash or almost paying cash for a house makes a lot of this timing stuff moot.

There are some minor differences in elementary schools, there are about 15 in Temec alone so check their API on the state website and feel free to ask me any specific questions at [email protected]

Since your screen name is Rothschild, I should charge you a Mouton but I wont.

[Baron von Rothschild]

I talked to a real estate agent today about a short sale, but the owners had given up and removed the listing this week. They’re voluntarily opting for foreclosure. I got a very uneasy feeling that the foreclosure wave is just beginning rather than half done.

We’ve decided to rent starting in August if the market still has a lot to fall. I hate to move twice, but I more hate to overpay by $100,000. We’re looking at stuff in the $400,000s, but I think that’ll be low to mid $300,000s within the year.

What’s the best foreclosure tracking site for Temecula? I’m incredibly curious as to trend of NODs and NOTS.

[Baron von Rothschild]

I talked to a real estate agent today about a short sale, but the owners had given up and removed the listing this week. They’re voluntarily opting for foreclosure. I got a very uneasy feeling that the foreclosure wave is just beginning rather than half done.

We’ve decided to rent starting in August if the market still has a lot to fall. I hate to move twice, but I more hate to overpay by $100,000. We’re looking at stuff in the $400,000s, but I think that’ll be low to mid $300,000s within the year.

What’s the best foreclosure tracking site for Temecula? I’m incredibly curious as to trend of NODs and NOTS.

[Baron von Rothschild]

I talked to a real estate agent today about a short sale, but the owners had given up and removed the listing this week. They’re voluntarily opting for foreclosure. I got a very uneasy feeling that the foreclosure wave is just beginning rather than half done.

We’ve decided to rent starting in August if the market still has a lot to fall. I hate to move twice, but I more hate to overpay by $100,000. We’re looking at stuff in the $400,000s, but I think that’ll be low to mid $300,000s within the year.

What’s the best foreclosure tracking site for Temecula? I’m incredibly curious as to trend of NODs and NOTS.

[Baron von Rothschild]

I talked to a real estate agent today about a short sale, but the owners had given up and removed the listing this week. They’re voluntarily opting for foreclosure. I got a very uneasy feeling that the foreclosure wave is just beginning rather than half done.

We’ve decided to rent starting in August if the market still has a lot to fall. I hate to move twice, but I more hate to overpay by $100,000. We’re looking at stuff in the $400,000s, but I think that’ll be low to mid $300,000s within the year.

What’s the best foreclosure tracking site for Temecula? I’m incredibly curious as to trend of NODs and NOTS.

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