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July 27, 2008 at 10:04 AM #247986July 27, 2008 at 10:06 AM #247774ucodegenParticipant
I consider them independent runs so I say 50/50. Your’re right too they want to make it look hard but showing one of the doors effectively makes it 50/50 so they know that over time there will be enough winna’s to keep people tuned it etc.
I’m not convinced on their independence. I am coming up with 33% on a car and 66% chance on a goat going into the reveal. While the next choice is binary when independent, the entrance condition alters the probability.
July 27, 2008 at 10:06 AM #247929ucodegenParticipantI consider them independent runs so I say 50/50. Your’re right too they want to make it look hard but showing one of the doors effectively makes it 50/50 so they know that over time there will be enough winna’s to keep people tuned it etc.
I’m not convinced on their independence. I am coming up with 33% on a car and 66% chance on a goat going into the reveal. While the next choice is binary when independent, the entrance condition alters the probability.
July 27, 2008 at 10:06 AM #247933ucodegenParticipantI consider them independent runs so I say 50/50. Your’re right too they want to make it look hard but showing one of the doors effectively makes it 50/50 so they know that over time there will be enough winna’s to keep people tuned it etc.
I’m not convinced on their independence. I am coming up with 33% on a car and 66% chance on a goat going into the reveal. While the next choice is binary when independent, the entrance condition alters the probability.
July 27, 2008 at 10:06 AM #247992ucodegenParticipantI consider them independent runs so I say 50/50. Your’re right too they want to make it look hard but showing one of the doors effectively makes it 50/50 so they know that over time there will be enough winna’s to keep people tuned it etc.
I’m not convinced on their independence. I am coming up with 33% on a car and 66% chance on a goat going into the reveal. While the next choice is binary when independent, the entrance condition alters the probability.
July 27, 2008 at 10:06 AM #247996ucodegenParticipantI consider them independent runs so I say 50/50. Your’re right too they want to make it look hard but showing one of the doors effectively makes it 50/50 so they know that over time there will be enough winna’s to keep people tuned it etc.
I’m not convinced on their independence. I am coming up with 33% on a car and 66% chance on a goat going into the reveal. While the next choice is binary when independent, the entrance condition alters the probability.
July 27, 2008 at 1:24 PM #247823citydwellerParticipantI have to agree with Brian P. If there are 10 doors your chance of picking the car is only 10%. The host opens 8 doors that have goats. Your best bet is to switch doors, since the probability of having picked the car on your first choice is still only 10%.
I’m assuming the host knows which door has the car behind it.
July 27, 2008 at 1:24 PM #247979citydwellerParticipantI have to agree with Brian P. If there are 10 doors your chance of picking the car is only 10%. The host opens 8 doors that have goats. Your best bet is to switch doors, since the probability of having picked the car on your first choice is still only 10%.
I’m assuming the host knows which door has the car behind it.
July 27, 2008 at 1:24 PM #247983citydwellerParticipantI have to agree with Brian P. If there are 10 doors your chance of picking the car is only 10%. The host opens 8 doors that have goats. Your best bet is to switch doors, since the probability of having picked the car on your first choice is still only 10%.
I’m assuming the host knows which door has the car behind it.
July 27, 2008 at 1:24 PM #248044citydwellerParticipantI have to agree with Brian P. If there are 10 doors your chance of picking the car is only 10%. The host opens 8 doors that have goats. Your best bet is to switch doors, since the probability of having picked the car on your first choice is still only 10%.
I’m assuming the host knows which door has the car behind it.
July 27, 2008 at 1:24 PM #248047citydwellerParticipantI have to agree with Brian P. If there are 10 doors your chance of picking the car is only 10%. The host opens 8 doors that have goats. Your best bet is to switch doors, since the probability of having picked the car on your first choice is still only 10%.
I’m assuming the host knows which door has the car behind it.
July 27, 2008 at 2:06 PM #247832meadandaleParticipantI don’t know why some of you people are arguing against the 2/3 answer. It IS the correct answer, whether you understand the logic or not.
People who study probabilities for a living have said this is the answer. All you amateur naysayers should just capitulate and move on…:-)
July 27, 2008 at 2:06 PM #247989meadandaleParticipantI don’t know why some of you people are arguing against the 2/3 answer. It IS the correct answer, whether you understand the logic or not.
People who study probabilities for a living have said this is the answer. All you amateur naysayers should just capitulate and move on…:-)
July 27, 2008 at 2:06 PM #247993meadandaleParticipantI don’t know why some of you people are arguing against the 2/3 answer. It IS the correct answer, whether you understand the logic or not.
People who study probabilities for a living have said this is the answer. All you amateur naysayers should just capitulate and move on…:-)
July 27, 2008 at 2:06 PM #248054meadandaleParticipantI don’t know why some of you people are arguing against the 2/3 answer. It IS the correct answer, whether you understand the logic or not.
People who study probabilities for a living have said this is the answer. All you amateur naysayers should just capitulate and move on…:-)
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