I agree with Jim. Gardeners, nail salons will be the first to go. I posted an article a few weeks back, about just this kind of cutting back in tough times, from an upper middle class Detroit suburb. As the high level auto industry managers were laid off, they stopped using the service workers and non-essential businesses. The local country club, nursery, beauty salon are hurting. The nursery owner’s wife had to cut back on her expenses, because the homeowners drastically reduced their annual flower planting.
On a related note, my friend’s hair stylist said so many of her customers moved out of San Diego, that she went to a 4-day week.