The $100-oil barrel

[Arraya]

World Production

2004 82.9 mill bbl per day avg.
2005 84.15 million bbl per day avg.
2006 84.8 million bbl per day avg.
2007 84.62 million bbl per day avg.

Considering since 1980-2004 we have had a 2-4% increase per year to keep up with demand. This would indicate a peak in production. What do we think will happen with 2-4% declines coupled with increasing demand from the industrialized nations.

We lost 4% during the 1970s oil embargo and the price quadrupled.

These declines will never stop.

By 2015ish there will be no exportable oil left unless we take over another country. That would leave us a 20 million bbl per day shortfall by then. We could convert all the farmland to corn ethanol and it would only make up a tiny fraction except we would have no food.

Also keep in mind GDP and population have always tracked oil production since the late 1800s.

Why don’t the analyists ever mention production #s. It’s always something else causing price increases.

We are on the edge of an abyss…

[bubble_contagion]

Thanks God I work for the oil industry. Last year was our biggest year ever. The company I work for, and our competitors, are working at full capacity to provide more equipment to extract and pump oil. Don’t worry, we will eventually catch up with demand but these projects take years.

[bubble_contagion]

Thanks God I work for the oil industry. Last year was our biggest year ever. The company I work for, and our competitors, are working at full capacity to provide more equipment to extract and pump oil. Don’t worry, we will eventually catch up with demand but these projects take years.

[bubble_contagion]

Thanks God I work for the oil industry. Last year was our biggest year ever. The company I work for, and our competitors, are working at full capacity to provide more equipment to extract and pump oil. Don’t worry, we will eventually catch up with demand but these projects take years.

[bubble_contagion]

Thanks God I work for the oil industry. Last year was our biggest year ever. The company I work for, and our competitors, are working at full capacity to provide more equipment to extract and pump oil. Don’t worry, we will eventually catch up with demand but these projects take years.

[bubble_contagion]

Thanks God I work for the oil industry. Last year was our biggest year ever. The company I work for, and our competitors, are working at full capacity to provide more equipment to extract and pump oil. Don’t worry, we will eventually catch up with demand but these projects take years.

[Arraya]

Yes they take years but it will not catch up with the declines. That is how it works…

Biggest year how? Not in discovery and not in production. We have not had a signicant discovery since the 60s. We are consuming 3-4 for every 1 we find. The big discoveries are not there any more. Mexico will cease exporting in 3-5 years, the UK just did 2 years ago. Iran peaked in like 03.

Every well peaks and declines, every geographic region peaks and declines and the world has.

I guess if it makes you feel better to think that but it is not very realistic..

The Basis of the Problem Is Psychological, Not Technological

As the oil crisis worsens there will be various forms of aberrant behavior: denial, anger, mental paralysis. There will be an increase in crime, there will be strange religious cults or extremist political movements. The reason for such behavior is that fundamentally the peak-oil problem is not about technology, and it is not about economics, and it is not about politics. It is partly about humanity’s attempt to defy geology.

It is very unfortunate because there are many things we could have done or still do. But not even acknowleding the problem makes things worse…

[Arraya]

Yes they take years but it will not catch up with the declines. That is how it works…

Biggest year how? Not in discovery and not in production. We have not had a signicant discovery since the 60s. We are consuming 3-4 for every 1 we find. The big discoveries are not there any more. Mexico will cease exporting in 3-5 years, the UK just did 2 years ago. Iran peaked in like 03.

Every well peaks and declines, every geographic region peaks and declines and the world has.

I guess if it makes you feel better to think that but it is not very realistic..

The Basis of the Problem Is Psychological, Not Technological

As the oil crisis worsens there will be various forms of aberrant behavior: denial, anger, mental paralysis. There will be an increase in crime, there will be strange religious cults or extremist political movements. The reason for such behavior is that fundamentally the peak-oil problem is not about technology, and it is not about economics, and it is not about politics. It is partly about humanity’s attempt to defy geology.

It is very unfortunate because there are many things we could have done or still do. But not even acknowleding the problem makes things worse…

[Arraya]

Yes they take years but it will not catch up with the declines. That is how it works…

Biggest year how? Not in discovery and not in production. We have not had a signicant discovery since the 60s. We are consuming 3-4 for every 1 we find. The big discoveries are not there any more. Mexico will cease exporting in 3-5 years, the UK just did 2 years ago. Iran peaked in like 03.

Every well peaks and declines, every geographic region peaks and declines and the world has.

I guess if it makes you feel better to think that but it is not very realistic..

The Basis of the Problem Is Psychological, Not Technological

As the oil crisis worsens there will be various forms of aberrant behavior: denial, anger, mental paralysis. There will be an increase in crime, there will be strange religious cults or extremist political movements. The reason for such behavior is that fundamentally the peak-oil problem is not about technology, and it is not about economics, and it is not about politics. It is partly about humanity’s attempt to defy geology.

It is very unfortunate because there are many things we could have done or still do. But not even acknowleding the problem makes things worse…

[Arraya]

Yes they take years but it will not catch up with the declines. That is how it works…

Biggest year how? Not in discovery and not in production. We have not had a signicant discovery since the 60s. We are consuming 3-4 for every 1 we find. The big discoveries are not there any more. Mexico will cease exporting in 3-5 years, the UK just did 2 years ago. Iran peaked in like 03.

Every well peaks and declines, every geographic region peaks and declines and the world has.

I guess if it makes you feel better to think that but it is not very realistic..

The Basis of the Problem Is Psychological, Not Technological

As the oil crisis worsens there will be various forms of aberrant behavior: denial, anger, mental paralysis. There will be an increase in crime, there will be strange religious cults or extremist political movements. The reason for such behavior is that fundamentally the peak-oil problem is not about technology, and it is not about economics, and it is not about politics. It is partly about humanity’s attempt to defy geology.

It is very unfortunate because there are many things we could have done or still do. But not even acknowleding the problem makes things worse…

[Arraya]

Yes they take years but it will not catch up with the declines. That is how it works…

Biggest year how? Not in discovery and not in production. We have not had a signicant discovery since the 60s. We are consuming 3-4 for every 1 we find. The big discoveries are not there any more. Mexico will cease exporting in 3-5 years, the UK just did 2 years ago. Iran peaked in like 03.

Every well peaks and declines, every geographic region peaks and declines and the world has.

I guess if it makes you feel better to think that but it is not very realistic..

The Basis of the Problem Is Psychological, Not Technological

As the oil crisis worsens there will be various forms of aberrant behavior: denial, anger, mental paralysis. There will be an increase in crime, there will be strange religious cults or extremist political movements. The reason for such behavior is that fundamentally the peak-oil problem is not about technology, and it is not about economics, and it is not about politics. It is partly about humanity’s attempt to defy geology.

It is very unfortunate because there are many things we could have done or still do. But not even acknowleding the problem makes things worse…

[TheBreeze]

If oil is at $105 at the end of the year, I’ll be extremely surprised. $120 or greater is my expected target by year end. Stagflation looks like where we’re headed as the Fed and the federal government aren’t going to let the housing bubble correct on its own.

[TheBreeze]

If oil is at $105 at the end of the year, I’ll be extremely surprised. $120 or greater is my expected target by year end. Stagflation looks like where we’re headed as the Fed and the federal government aren’t going to let the housing bubble correct on its own.

[TheBreeze]

If oil is at $105 at the end of the year, I’ll be extremely surprised. $120 or greater is my expected target by year end. Stagflation looks like where we’re headed as the Fed and the federal government aren’t going to let the housing bubble correct on its own.

[TheBreeze]

If oil is at $105 at the end of the year, I’ll be extremely surprised. $120 or greater is my expected target by year end. Stagflation looks like where we’re headed as the Fed and the federal government aren’t going to let the housing bubble correct on its own.

[Author]

Posts