Texas – the next big bubble market?

[kev374]

Was listening to 97.1FM KLSX here in Los Angeles where they have a real estate show. They were actively promoting investing in Texas…

http://roundtable.squarespace.com/invest-in-killeen/

I’ve also heard speculators are heading to Texas. Could Texas be the next Southern California!!?

[Anonymous]

Very unlikely Texas will see a bubble anything like CA. For one thing, houses in most of Texas still essentally sell for their construction costs, about $100 per square foot. In fact in Houston you can buy a pretty nice place for around $85-$90 a square foot. Compare that to San Diego where you are looking at sale prices still in the $350/ft. range or more.

Since Texas houses are so close to their actual cost value, I think it is unlikely you will see much of a drop. Just my take anyway.

[Bugs]

They’re already having problems. The investor clubs had identified Austin and (I think) Amarillo as being among the next stops on the triumphant New Paradigm world tour. Both of those runups have reportedly fizzled and are already on the rocks. Their upswing was measured in months, not years.

[santeeman]

I have just seen a website that contradicts what you have just stated. It shows a year over year that is 5.89% higher(for Austin), hardly a bubble but not a fizzle either…….
http://www.crosslandteam.com/blog/

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

With my own observation of this region around Austin (especially in between Austin and Corpus Christi), the area near the corridors of I-35 is exploding in commercial and housing construction. Tractors, pipes, construction crews are everywhere. People in these areas, the “insiders”, must know something about the monstrous NAFTA highway being planned. The Public was invited to attend an informational seminar sometime ago, published in the Austin newspapers, about massive infusion of funds to develop I-35 into four-football-field-wide-mega-super-huge highway to accommodate all possible imports from Asia. (Exaggerating, of course). I sunk a portion of my profits selling a house in San Diego into buying a $70.00 per square-ft brand new house just built by Centex. White Texas Bricks on 3 sides. What an incredible deal! In this town where the house is located, a signpost said population is around 6,000. Well, as soon as the census gets completed, I have a feeling the signpost should be adjusted to 106,000. Within the last three years, this town just “exploded” in size. Home Depot, Wal-Mart and HEB are competing with each other building the most massive commercial retail sites I have ever seen. Their buildings are all made out of bricks, too. Beautiful structures.

I think it is true that Texas is moving up, up, up and away to the big sky of PROGRESS.

[little lady]

Hmmm 100k sounds like a LOT of building, I am not sure that you are correct. Infact I was looking at a site recently, that had a list of the highest percentages of people moving to different areas in the country, and Riverside had the most people which was around 30,000, but it wasn’t the highest percentage. So I am sure you are embelishing. I am sure that Austin was on that list though, I can’t remember the sites name.

[OwnerOfCalifornia]

The California -> central Texas migration is nothing new. It happened once recently in the late 90’s as folks moved from ‘Silicon Valley’ to ‘Silicon Hills’ and drove a runup in real-estate that mirrored the tech bubble. Once that was over, the high-end real-estate was crushed while the entry-level stuff stagnated for a few years.

There is definitely extreme growth on the I-35 corridor, but it has been going on for over a decade now. If the bubble tour is just now rolling into town they fashionably late to the party.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Ha-ha. This town I mentioned is the “Riverside” of Texas state. Groucho Marx said, “Who are you going to believe? Me or your lying eyes?” Hint: my eyes and observations don’t lie. Like a flock of migratory birds seeking greener pastures, the extremely mobile immigrants, both illegals and legal, are seeking their own dreams in greener pastures, literally. As of today, the borders don’t have the equivalent of Great Wall of China yet.

The meat of my earlier post is: $365.00 per SF house in San Diego is a nightmare. And $70.00 per SF house in this Texas town is a dream that can easily turn to reality for sensible migrants. I agree with merlin’s post above that houses close to their actual cost value of construction will not drop 50%, unlike in San Diego. A dollar in Texas is same dollar in San Diego, but the dollar in Texas buys way a lot more.

[santeeman]

Oh I am sure the herds of bailing Californian’s are moving there. I just meant it might LOOK like 100k but in actuality it’s probably closer to 10k or less. I personally have been watching Reno. Can’t STAND humidity, and would like someplace a little cooler most of the year.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

If the count of houses, mobile homes, trailers, etc. is what you mean, yes. I was referring to the count of human heads. Hispanic families tend to have more members. More kids, more blessings, the merrier. More uncles and aunties and extended relatives living in the house, the cheaper the board & lodging costs, too.

[Bugs]

My point was in relation to the flip trade – they’re not that interested in 6% YOY increases. Getting 3% over CPI is not part of their fabulous wealth building system. You can argue that 6% YOY for 2006 isn’t going to get you to an overextended market.

I agree about Reno – it looks a lot better to me than Texas. Heck, I’d take Las Vegas (once it settles down) over Texas.

[Anonymous]

I am not so sure about the austin texas real estate bubble. California has a long run up in real estate prices before crashing. If you compare Texas appreciation with california and florida you see more steady appreciation in texas.

http://www.escapesomewhere.com/austinblog/2006/10/september_statistics_for_the_a.html

[Cow_tipping]

Charlotte NC is also inflate the bubble.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[bsrsharma]

This is no bubble; 3000 sqft for $130K in Dallas

http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/469470411.html

[bsrsharma]

This is no bubble; 3000 sqft for $130K in Dallas

http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/469470411.html

[Author]

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