Temecula: How long till you see a video like this there?

[waiting hawk]

4-8 months Ill bet.

[FormerOwner]

Not long, waiting hawk; 12-15 months at most – That would be the end of next year’s spring/summer selling season.

I’ve been watching the local market pretty closely and here’s my take on the progression of the slow motion train wreck:

In 2006, homes sat on the market longer and there were a lot of choices for buyers, sellers had to pay closing costs, etc. volumes were way down, but houses priced right did sell (like mine).

In 2007, there are almost no resales at all except short sales and foreclosures and some suspicious looking flips and inflated prices. The builders are selling some houses but at lower prices and even they are struggling, getting desperate with 100K price cuts in some cases and still sales are S L O W. We’re just now seeing huge price reductions in bank repos and they’re not selling either. Resales are now competing with bank repos and they’re both in a death spiral – I’ve just noticed this in the last couple of weeks.

By this time next year, total panic will have set in among sellers, inventory will have piled up even more, more bank repos will come on the market, and it will be the Sacramento of the South down here in Temecula. Maybe it will happen sooner than 12-15 months but things are deteriorating so quickly that it’s hard to see it going on much longer than that.

Things are much much worse than most people could imagine. Another thing is that all these houses being rented out at a loss or where the “investors” have neg-am loans (like the one I’m living in right now) are going to crash and burn over the next few years so that will prolong the crash even longer. I don’t think many people are aware of just how many of the tract homes around here are rentals. On my street I think 6 out of 6 houses will foreclose within the next few years:
4 out of 6 are rentals at huge losses
1 is a failed flip that has relatives living in it
1 is owned by a R/E “investor” that lives in the house but owns 4 other houses in Riverside and San Bernardino counties

[FormerOwner]

Not long, waiting hawk; 12-15 months at most – That would be the end of next year’s spring/summer selling season.

I’ve been watching the local market pretty closely and here’s my take on the progression of the slow motion train wreck:

In 2006, homes sat on the market longer and there were a lot of choices for buyers, sellers had to pay closing costs, etc. volumes were way down, but houses priced right did sell (like mine).

In 2007, there are almost no resales at all except short sales and foreclosures and some suspicious looking flips and inflated prices. The builders are selling some houses but at lower prices and even they are struggling, getting desperate with 100K price cuts in some cases and still sales are S L O W. We’re just now seeing huge price reductions in bank repos and they’re not selling either. Resales are now competing with bank repos and they’re both in a death spiral – I’ve just noticed this in the last couple of weeks.

By this time next year, total panic will have set in among sellers, inventory will have piled up even more, more bank repos will come on the market, and it will be the Sacramento of the South down here in Temecula. Maybe it will happen sooner than 12-15 months but things are deteriorating so quickly that it’s hard to see it going on much longer than that.

Things are much much worse than most people could imagine. Another thing is that all these houses being rented out at a loss or where the “investors” have neg-am loans (like the one I’m living in right now) are going to crash and burn over the next few years so that will prolong the crash even longer. I don’t think many people are aware of just how many of the tract homes around here are rentals. On my street I think 6 out of 6 houses will foreclose within the next few years:
4 out of 6 are rentals at huge losses
1 is a failed flip that has relatives living in it
1 is owned by a R/E “investor” that lives in the house but owns 4 other houses in Riverside and San Bernardino counties

[waiting hawk]

I say 4-8 months you say 12-15. One of us will likley be right so lets say who ever wins pays for pizza and a few drinks at a local pub down there?
First 50% off from peak house in Tem. Mur./watch stops.

[waiting hawk]

I say 4-8 months you say 12-15. One of us will likley be right so lets say who ever wins pays for pizza and a few drinks at a local pub down there?
First 50% off from peak house in Tem. Mur./watch stops.

[FormerOwner]

OK; it’s a deal!

[FormerOwner]

OK; it’s a deal!

[rube]

The subdivision name “The Meadows” is rather ironic given the condition of those front lawns.

[rube]

The subdivision name “The Meadows” is rather ironic given the condition of those front lawns.

[temeculaguy]

Hawk and Former, I want in on the bet, hell I’ll buy the beers anyway because my guess is too vague to be classified as a bet. I think we should have to name a zip code, like calling a pocket in billiards.

For clarification is it just the city of Temecula or the Temecula Valley. I think you are both right. French Valley and Wildomar will hit 50% off peak in 4-5 months, central Murrieta in 7-10 months and North Temecula 92591 10-12 months, South Temecula 92592 12-15 months. Looking at the zip codes from North to South the household income decreases as you move north and the amount of peak price development went the opposite direction. Right now the NOD’s and forclosures in the french valley are running at 2x to 3x that of temecula when you factor population and run nods by zip. They are legally in the city of murrieta but only by virtue of annexation and they are pretty far removed from what most consider murrieta and some parts aren’t in the school district. They will all go down the bathtub drain but those closest to the drain will go first.

[temeculaguy]

Hawk and Former, I want in on the bet, hell I’ll buy the beers anyway because my guess is too vague to be classified as a bet. I think we should have to name a zip code, like calling a pocket in billiards.

For clarification is it just the city of Temecula or the Temecula Valley. I think you are both right. French Valley and Wildomar will hit 50% off peak in 4-5 months, central Murrieta in 7-10 months and North Temecula 92591 10-12 months, South Temecula 92592 12-15 months. Looking at the zip codes from North to South the household income decreases as you move north and the amount of peak price development went the opposite direction. Right now the NOD’s and forclosures in the french valley are running at 2x to 3x that of temecula when you factor population and run nods by zip. They are legally in the city of murrieta but only by virtue of annexation and they are pretty far removed from what most consider murrieta and some parts aren’t in the school district. They will all go down the bathtub drain but those closest to the drain will go first.

[Diego Don]

I liked how the video was edited to tell what the media left out.

“A lease to own is a suckers bet. They can’t sell so they dump it on anyone. Don’t be stupid.”

Real news you can use, left out by our fearless media.

[Diego Don]

I liked how the video was edited to tell what the media left out.

“A lease to own is a suckers bet. They can’t sell so they dump it on anyone. Don’t be stupid.”

Real news you can use, left out by our fearless media.

[waiting hawk]

Nah we have to make it harder. French Valley and Wildomar, I personally know of a house already down in French valley as a short sale from peak of 450k to 300k right now. Let’s do within the city limits of Temecula and Murrieta.

Here are the zips and medians for Temecula and Murrieta:
Temecula 92590 $925
Temecula 92591 $445
Temecula 92592 $455

Murrieta 92562 58 $515
Murrieta 92563 51 $485
I believe most of French Valley is considered Winchester as I have a friend off of Benton by those new KB homes and his address is classified as Winchester. Those are too easy so let us exclude those.
4-8 months a house in zip codes above will be 50% off (I’ll find one for sure I’m bettin)
Most likely that longer months may win but I’ve been seeing drops like you wouldn’t believe so I am a gambling man.

[waiting hawk]

Nah we have to make it harder. French Valley and Wildomar, I personally know of a house already down in French valley as a short sale from peak of 450k to 300k right now. Let’s do within the city limits of Temecula and Murrieta.

Here are the zips and medians for Temecula and Murrieta:
Temecula 92590 $925
Temecula 92591 $445
Temecula 92592 $455

Murrieta 92562 58 $515
Murrieta 92563 51 $485
I believe most of French Valley is considered Winchester as I have a friend off of Benton by those new KB homes and his address is classified as Winchester. Those are too easy so let us exclude those.
4-8 months a house in zip codes above will be 50% off (I’ll find one for sure I’m bettin)
Most likely that longer months may win but I’ve been seeing drops like you wouldn’t believe so I am a gambling man.

[Author]

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