Stonebridge-what does the future bring?

[recordsclerk]

It looks like they are going to finish up the Viscaya Build. This is a really good price comparing to the current inventory.

15583 COBBLE CREEK LANE, SD – Scripps Miramar, CA 92131 is listed for $759,900
Single story 3738sqft home.

“The final build-out for viscaya at stonebridge estates has begun. This home will be complete in early april 2010. Framing has just begun, so there is still time for buyers to select interior upgrades. Very sharp single story home priced to sell!!! Tuscan elevation, interior atrium with outdoor fireplace, gourmet kitchen. Quality construction throughout.”

[ocrenter]

http://www.ocbj.com/article.asp?aID=74125636.1360697.1854957.663.177363.786&aID2=142680

http://www.carealestatejournal.com/newswire/index.cfm?sid=&tkn=&eid=905965&evid=1

for Viscaya, looks like these guys paid $320k per lot. assuming $100/sqft at $370k, that’s $80k per home in profit?

as for the project in La Costa Ridge, $4 million cash to purchase 34 lots, that’s $118k per lot! assuming $400k per home, that’s $518k in investment. they are hoping to selling these at $625k.

so in general, $80-110k per home in profit.

[ocrenter]

http://www.ocbj.com/article.asp?aID=74125636.1360697.1854957.663.177363.786&aID2=142680

http://www.carealestatejournal.com/newswire/index.cfm?sid=&tkn=&eid=905965&evid=1

for Viscaya, looks like these guys paid $320k per lot. assuming $100/sqft at $370k, that’s $80k per home in profit?

as for the project in La Costa Ridge, $4 million cash to purchase 34 lots, that’s $118k per lot! assuming $400k per home, that’s $518k in investment. they are hoping to selling these at $625k.

so in general, $80-110k per home in profit.

[ocrenter]

http://www.ocbj.com/article.asp?aID=74125636.1360697.1854957.663.177363.786&aID2=142680

http://www.carealestatejournal.com/newswire/index.cfm?sid=&tkn=&eid=905965&evid=1

for Viscaya, looks like these guys paid $320k per lot. assuming $100/sqft at $370k, that’s $80k per home in profit?

as for the project in La Costa Ridge, $4 million cash to purchase 34 lots, that’s $118k per lot! assuming $400k per home, that’s $518k in investment. they are hoping to selling these at $625k.

so in general, $80-110k per home in profit.

[ocrenter]

http://www.ocbj.com/article.asp?aID=74125636.1360697.1854957.663.177363.786&aID2=142680

http://www.carealestatejournal.com/newswire/index.cfm?sid=&tkn=&eid=905965&evid=1

for Viscaya, looks like these guys paid $320k per lot. assuming $100/sqft at $370k, that’s $80k per home in profit?

as for the project in La Costa Ridge, $4 million cash to purchase 34 lots, that’s $118k per lot! assuming $400k per home, that’s $518k in investment. they are hoping to selling these at $625k.

so in general, $80-110k per home in profit.

[ocrenter]

http://www.ocbj.com/article.asp?aID=74125636.1360697.1854957.663.177363.786&aID2=142680

http://www.carealestatejournal.com/newswire/index.cfm?sid=&tkn=&eid=905965&evid=1

for Viscaya, looks like these guys paid $320k per lot. assuming $100/sqft at $370k, that’s $80k per home in profit?

as for the project in La Costa Ridge, $4 million cash to purchase 34 lots, that’s $118k per lot! assuming $400k per home, that’s $518k in investment. they are hoping to selling these at $625k.

so in general, $80-110k per home in profit.

[Anonymous]

Falling knife or pretty good buy Stonebridge-Viscaya?

I relocated to San Diego about a year ago and have been closely scouting the housing market here for about 2 years. I lived for about 3 months in Stonebridge and having come from North Carolina am willing to live a little more remotely but have the privacy and space and larger floorplans. I don’t feel it is very remote since I normally like the light crowds in Poway vs. the more congested areas around Mira Mesa. It is also good for my commute either with my current job or from most employers that I would likely join if I make a career change. But I was not willing to spend more than $1Mil to get that.

I found a great house that I know my wife would like (she was still back on the east coast)and it was in Scripps so my kids could be at Scripps Ranch High which they wanted That has worked OK for us. But come April I need to either renew an expensive lease ($3,500 but a fantastic Sunset view for 20 miles!) or find another lease or buy. We need at least 3,000 sq feet so it would be unlikely we would find a lease for a much lower cost if we decide to move. This is the first time in 24 years where I have rented and I have to say I enjoy being a homeowner. We also need more parking, a little more sq. footage and a larger back yard for our pets. I know all the comparisons between renting and ownership but I just don’t feel settled in a rented house. We will stay in the area probably forever according to my wife and that is OK with me.

I saw the post on this forum for Viscaya and thought it sounded really good ($750K-$820K for 3700-4100 sq. ft) so I figured they probably had the great views of of the power lines or the industrial park or had really funky floorplans or lot issues. “Honey, lets go for a ride”…

First, there were 3-4 couples already in the trailer when I arrived (no models but you can see the homes that were built before the crash). It was very active with several more folks flowing in as we left to walk the lots. All have foundations poured and most are framed to the first level and some of the single stories already are under roof. There are 10 homes in this phase of Cobblecreek Lane and I think they have 38 or so total to build out the lots they purchased.

What I found was a mixed bag. On one side of the street they have the huge upward sloping rear yard and houses located on the ridge above so no view. On the other side about 1/2 of them face the industrial bldgs in Poway. 2 others on this side had excellent view but were already reserved. (agent just opened their sales trailer this week). But there was 1 left that had a fantastic view, no power lines, level back yard and great floorplan.

They have 2 floor plans including a single level with central atrium or a 2 story with a 4 car garage. We walked the single level and liked the house but all had minimal side privacy and the rear view of your own dirt hill!

Then we crossed the street to one on the canyon with a great view. I have to admit I loved the garage and the rest of the floorplan and elevation did not disappoint either. I have probably looked at almost every new community and many resales all the way North to Carlsbad and this seemed to be an incredible home and view with a very “reasonable” price relative to everything else. I have seen some comparable homes that are short sales in the 700-850K range but nothing new and the short sales are of course a reall crap shoot. Ialso am facing a decision point in Q1 and not really wanting to stay in this rental another year.

So there was only 1 left that had the combination we were seeking. Knowing there was no risk to my 10K, feeling it was a great match to our needs and thinking that I might not be the only one who felt that way I decided to be a bit impulsive. So what the hell I put down my $10K non-binding reservation on one house that has a fantastic eastern canyon/mountain view and great privacy with level backyard. I had barely signed the check when one of the other couples approached the agent and wanted to reserve the same home.

This is my 4th home purchase and I have been through a spec build before and really enjoyed it. We can extend our lease month to month if requred so have some flexibility. The homes are supposed to be finished in April but I figure I should expect June to allow for some schedule slips.

So assuming I am financially stable, have very good income and can afford this does anyone see any reason why this might be a mistake? I don’t see these prices dropping much if at all and compared to other areas they are very competitive. I think they can do that because they picked up the lots at the bottom and right now the subs are just happy to get work and bidding projects accordingly.

The pros:
$195/sq foot, large sq. footage, great family floorplan, includes front landscaping, 6% credit IF you use their mortgage broker (have not yet verified if they are competitive of course) and the rest of the neighborhood is already built out and seems stable. (Spoke with several residents who seem to be very happy with their purchase) Garage where I can store all my toys including boat and motorcycle

The Cons:
Stonebridge parkway is a turn off for some
No city lights view and eventually Warmington or another builder could build out the ridge to the East but it would not block the mountain view and would not impact privacy
Mello Roos and HOA will add up to about $500/month
High fire risk (but just about everywhere I want to live is also!)
Builder is a new venture so no guarantee of build quality (But at least I can visit the site as often as I wish during the build and I have been through this process before)

Is anything wrong with this picture or am I missing something that makes this a falling knife? My assumption is that interest rates are likely to move up sometime in the next 12-24 months and deflation or further collapse of the $750K-$1Mil home market in San Diego is not that likely.

Please point out any flaws in my logic, assumptions or just otherwise feel free to comment. What would you do?

[Anonymous]

Falling knife or pretty good buy Stonebridge-Viscaya?

I relocated to San Diego about a year ago and have been closely scouting the housing market here for about 2 years. I lived for about 3 months in Stonebridge and having come from North Carolina am willing to live a little more remotely but have the privacy and space and larger floorplans. I don’t feel it is very remote since I normally like the light crowds in Poway vs. the more congested areas around Mira Mesa. It is also good for my commute either with my current job or from most employers that I would likely join if I make a career change. But I was not willing to spend more than $1Mil to get that.

I found a great house that I know my wife would like (she was still back on the east coast)and it was in Scripps so my kids could be at Scripps Ranch High which they wanted That has worked OK for us. But come April I need to either renew an expensive lease ($3,500 but a fantastic Sunset view for 20 miles!) or find another lease or buy. We need at least 3,000 sq feet so it would be unlikely we would find a lease for a much lower cost if we decide to move. This is the first time in 24 years where I have rented and I have to say I enjoy being a homeowner. We also need more parking, a little more sq. footage and a larger back yard for our pets. I know all the comparisons between renting and ownership but I just don’t feel settled in a rented house. We will stay in the area probably forever according to my wife and that is OK with me.

I saw the post on this forum for Viscaya and thought it sounded really good ($750K-$820K for 3700-4100 sq. ft) so I figured they probably had the great views of of the power lines or the industrial park or had really funky floorplans or lot issues. “Honey, lets go for a ride”…

First, there were 3-4 couples already in the trailer when I arrived (no models but you can see the homes that were built before the crash). It was very active with several more folks flowing in as we left to walk the lots. All have foundations poured and most are framed to the first level and some of the single stories already are under roof. There are 10 homes in this phase of Cobblecreek Lane and I think they have 38 or so total to build out the lots they purchased.

What I found was a mixed bag. On one side of the street they have the huge upward sloping rear yard and houses located on the ridge above so no view. On the other side about 1/2 of them face the industrial bldgs in Poway. 2 others on this side had excellent view but were already reserved. (agent just opened their sales trailer this week). But there was 1 left that had a fantastic view, no power lines, level back yard and great floorplan.

They have 2 floor plans including a single level with central atrium or a 2 story with a 4 car garage. We walked the single level and liked the house but all had minimal side privacy and the rear view of your own dirt hill!

Then we crossed the street to one on the canyon with a great view. I have to admit I loved the garage and the rest of the floorplan and elevation did not disappoint either. I have probably looked at almost every new community and many resales all the way North to Carlsbad and this seemed to be an incredible home and view with a very “reasonable” price relative to everything else. I have seen some comparable homes that are short sales in the 700-850K range but nothing new and the short sales are of course a reall crap shoot. Ialso am facing a decision point in Q1 and not really wanting to stay in this rental another year.

So there was only 1 left that had the combination we were seeking. Knowing there was no risk to my 10K, feeling it was a great match to our needs and thinking that I might not be the only one who felt that way I decided to be a bit impulsive. So what the hell I put down my $10K non-binding reservation on one house that has a fantastic eastern canyon/mountain view and great privacy with level backyard. I had barely signed the check when one of the other couples approached the agent and wanted to reserve the same home.

This is my 4th home purchase and I have been through a spec build before and really enjoyed it. We can extend our lease month to month if requred so have some flexibility. The homes are supposed to be finished in April but I figure I should expect June to allow for some schedule slips.

So assuming I am financially stable, have very good income and can afford this does anyone see any reason why this might be a mistake? I don’t see these prices dropping much if at all and compared to other areas they are very competitive. I think they can do that because they picked up the lots at the bottom and right now the subs are just happy to get work and bidding projects accordingly.

The pros:
$195/sq foot, large sq. footage, great family floorplan, includes front landscaping, 6% credit IF you use their mortgage broker (have not yet verified if they are competitive of course) and the rest of the neighborhood is already built out and seems stable. (Spoke with several residents who seem to be very happy with their purchase) Garage where I can store all my toys including boat and motorcycle

The Cons:
Stonebridge parkway is a turn off for some
No city lights view and eventually Warmington or another builder could build out the ridge to the East but it would not block the mountain view and would not impact privacy
Mello Roos and HOA will add up to about $500/month
High fire risk (but just about everywhere I want to live is also!)
Builder is a new venture so no guarantee of build quality (But at least I can visit the site as often as I wish during the build and I have been through this process before)

Is anything wrong with this picture or am I missing something that makes this a falling knife? My assumption is that interest rates are likely to move up sometime in the next 12-24 months and deflation or further collapse of the $750K-$1Mil home market in San Diego is not that likely.

Please point out any flaws in my logic, assumptions or just otherwise feel free to comment. What would you do?

[Anonymous]

Falling knife or pretty good buy Stonebridge-Viscaya?

I relocated to San Diego about a year ago and have been closely scouting the housing market here for about 2 years. I lived for about 3 months in Stonebridge and having come from North Carolina am willing to live a little more remotely but have the privacy and space and larger floorplans. I don’t feel it is very remote since I normally like the light crowds in Poway vs. the more congested areas around Mira Mesa. It is also good for my commute either with my current job or from most employers that I would likely join if I make a career change. But I was not willing to spend more than $1Mil to get that.

I found a great house that I know my wife would like (she was still back on the east coast)and it was in Scripps so my kids could be at Scripps Ranch High which they wanted That has worked OK for us. But come April I need to either renew an expensive lease ($3,500 but a fantastic Sunset view for 20 miles!) or find another lease or buy. We need at least 3,000 sq feet so it would be unlikely we would find a lease for a much lower cost if we decide to move. This is the first time in 24 years where I have rented and I have to say I enjoy being a homeowner. We also need more parking, a little more sq. footage and a larger back yard for our pets. I know all the comparisons between renting and ownership but I just don’t feel settled in a rented house. We will stay in the area probably forever according to my wife and that is OK with me.

I saw the post on this forum for Viscaya and thought it sounded really good ($750K-$820K for 3700-4100 sq. ft) so I figured they probably had the great views of of the power lines or the industrial park or had really funky floorplans or lot issues. “Honey, lets go for a ride”…

First, there were 3-4 couples already in the trailer when I arrived (no models but you can see the homes that were built before the crash). It was very active with several more folks flowing in as we left to walk the lots. All have foundations poured and most are framed to the first level and some of the single stories already are under roof. There are 10 homes in this phase of Cobblecreek Lane and I think they have 38 or so total to build out the lots they purchased.

What I found was a mixed bag. On one side of the street they have the huge upward sloping rear yard and houses located on the ridge above so no view. On the other side about 1/2 of them face the industrial bldgs in Poway. 2 others on this side had excellent view but were already reserved. (agent just opened their sales trailer this week). But there was 1 left that had a fantastic view, no power lines, level back yard and great floorplan.

They have 2 floor plans including a single level with central atrium or a 2 story with a 4 car garage. We walked the single level and liked the house but all had minimal side privacy and the rear view of your own dirt hill!

Then we crossed the street to one on the canyon with a great view. I have to admit I loved the garage and the rest of the floorplan and elevation did not disappoint either. I have probably looked at almost every new community and many resales all the way North to Carlsbad and this seemed to be an incredible home and view with a very “reasonable” price relative to everything else. I have seen some comparable homes that are short sales in the 700-850K range but nothing new and the short sales are of course a reall crap shoot. Ialso am facing a decision point in Q1 and not really wanting to stay in this rental another year.

So there was only 1 left that had the combination we were seeking. Knowing there was no risk to my 10K, feeling it was a great match to our needs and thinking that I might not be the only one who felt that way I decided to be a bit impulsive. So what the hell I put down my $10K non-binding reservation on one house that has a fantastic eastern canyon/mountain view and great privacy with level backyard. I had barely signed the check when one of the other couples approached the agent and wanted to reserve the same home.

This is my 4th home purchase and I have been through a spec build before and really enjoyed it. We can extend our lease month to month if requred so have some flexibility. The homes are supposed to be finished in April but I figure I should expect June to allow for some schedule slips.

So assuming I am financially stable, have very good income and can afford this does anyone see any reason why this might be a mistake? I don’t see these prices dropping much if at all and compared to other areas they are very competitive. I think they can do that because they picked up the lots at the bottom and right now the subs are just happy to get work and bidding projects accordingly.

The pros:
$195/sq foot, large sq. footage, great family floorplan, includes front landscaping, 6% credit IF you use their mortgage broker (have not yet verified if they are competitive of course) and the rest of the neighborhood is already built out and seems stable. (Spoke with several residents who seem to be very happy with their purchase) Garage where I can store all my toys including boat and motorcycle

The Cons:
Stonebridge parkway is a turn off for some
No city lights view and eventually Warmington or another builder could build out the ridge to the East but it would not block the mountain view and would not impact privacy
Mello Roos and HOA will add up to about $500/month
High fire risk (but just about everywhere I want to live is also!)
Builder is a new venture so no guarantee of build quality (But at least I can visit the site as often as I wish during the build and I have been through this process before)

Is anything wrong with this picture or am I missing something that makes this a falling knife? My assumption is that interest rates are likely to move up sometime in the next 12-24 months and deflation or further collapse of the $750K-$1Mil home market in San Diego is not that likely.

Please point out any flaws in my logic, assumptions or just otherwise feel free to comment. What would you do?

[Anonymous]

Falling knife or pretty good buy Stonebridge-Viscaya?

I relocated to San Diego about a year ago and have been closely scouting the housing market here for about 2 years. I lived for about 3 months in Stonebridge and having come from North Carolina am willing to live a little more remotely but have the privacy and space and larger floorplans. I don’t feel it is very remote since I normally like the light crowds in Poway vs. the more congested areas around Mira Mesa. It is also good for my commute either with my current job or from most employers that I would likely join if I make a career change. But I was not willing to spend more than $1Mil to get that.

I found a great house that I know my wife would like (she was still back on the east coast)and it was in Scripps so my kids could be at Scripps Ranch High which they wanted That has worked OK for us. But come April I need to either renew an expensive lease ($3,500 but a fantastic Sunset view for 20 miles!) or find another lease or buy. We need at least 3,000 sq feet so it would be unlikely we would find a lease for a much lower cost if we decide to move. This is the first time in 24 years where I have rented and I have to say I enjoy being a homeowner. We also need more parking, a little more sq. footage and a larger back yard for our pets. I know all the comparisons between renting and ownership but I just don’t feel settled in a rented house. We will stay in the area probably forever according to my wife and that is OK with me.

I saw the post on this forum for Viscaya and thought it sounded really good ($750K-$820K for 3700-4100 sq. ft) so I figured they probably had the great views of of the power lines or the industrial park or had really funky floorplans or lot issues. “Honey, lets go for a ride”…

First, there were 3-4 couples already in the trailer when I arrived (no models but you can see the homes that were built before the crash). It was very active with several more folks flowing in as we left to walk the lots. All have foundations poured and most are framed to the first level and some of the single stories already are under roof. There are 10 homes in this phase of Cobblecreek Lane and I think they have 38 or so total to build out the lots they purchased.

What I found was a mixed bag. On one side of the street they have the huge upward sloping rear yard and houses located on the ridge above so no view. On the other side about 1/2 of them face the industrial bldgs in Poway. 2 others on this side had excellent view but were already reserved. (agent just opened their sales trailer this week). But there was 1 left that had a fantastic view, no power lines, level back yard and great floorplan.

They have 2 floor plans including a single level with central atrium or a 2 story with a 4 car garage. We walked the single level and liked the house but all had minimal side privacy and the rear view of your own dirt hill!

Then we crossed the street to one on the canyon with a great view. I have to admit I loved the garage and the rest of the floorplan and elevation did not disappoint either. I have probably looked at almost every new community and many resales all the way North to Carlsbad and this seemed to be an incredible home and view with a very “reasonable” price relative to everything else. I have seen some comparable homes that are short sales in the 700-850K range but nothing new and the short sales are of course a reall crap shoot. Ialso am facing a decision point in Q1 and not really wanting to stay in this rental another year.

So there was only 1 left that had the combination we were seeking. Knowing there was no risk to my 10K, feeling it was a great match to our needs and thinking that I might not be the only one who felt that way I decided to be a bit impulsive. So what the hell I put down my $10K non-binding reservation on one house that has a fantastic eastern canyon/mountain view and great privacy with level backyard. I had barely signed the check when one of the other couples approached the agent and wanted to reserve the same home.

This is my 4th home purchase and I have been through a spec build before and really enjoyed it. We can extend our lease month to month if requred so have some flexibility. The homes are supposed to be finished in April but I figure I should expect June to allow for some schedule slips.

So assuming I am financially stable, have very good income and can afford this does anyone see any reason why this might be a mistake? I don’t see these prices dropping much if at all and compared to other areas they are very competitive. I think they can do that because they picked up the lots at the bottom and right now the subs are just happy to get work and bidding projects accordingly.

The pros:
$195/sq foot, large sq. footage, great family floorplan, includes front landscaping, 6% credit IF you use their mortgage broker (have not yet verified if they are competitive of course) and the rest of the neighborhood is already built out and seems stable. (Spoke with several residents who seem to be very happy with their purchase) Garage where I can store all my toys including boat and motorcycle

The Cons:
Stonebridge parkway is a turn off for some
No city lights view and eventually Warmington or another builder could build out the ridge to the East but it would not block the mountain view and would not impact privacy
Mello Roos and HOA will add up to about $500/month
High fire risk (but just about everywhere I want to live is also!)
Builder is a new venture so no guarantee of build quality (But at least I can visit the site as often as I wish during the build and I have been through this process before)

Is anything wrong with this picture or am I missing something that makes this a falling knife? My assumption is that interest rates are likely to move up sometime in the next 12-24 months and deflation or further collapse of the $750K-$1Mil home market in San Diego is not that likely.

Please point out any flaws in my logic, assumptions or just otherwise feel free to comment. What would you do?

[Anonymous]

Falling knife or pretty good buy Stonebridge-Viscaya?

I relocated to San Diego about a year ago and have been closely scouting the housing market here for about 2 years. I lived for about 3 months in Stonebridge and having come from North Carolina am willing to live a little more remotely but have the privacy and space and larger floorplans. I don’t feel it is very remote since I normally like the light crowds in Poway vs. the more congested areas around Mira Mesa. It is also good for my commute either with my current job or from most employers that I would likely join if I make a career change. But I was not willing to spend more than $1Mil to get that.

I found a great house that I know my wife would like (she was still back on the east coast)and it was in Scripps so my kids could be at Scripps Ranch High which they wanted That has worked OK for us. But come April I need to either renew an expensive lease ($3,500 but a fantastic Sunset view for 20 miles!) or find another lease or buy. We need at least 3,000 sq feet so it would be unlikely we would find a lease for a much lower cost if we decide to move. This is the first time in 24 years where I have rented and I have to say I enjoy being a homeowner. We also need more parking, a little more sq. footage and a larger back yard for our pets. I know all the comparisons between renting and ownership but I just don’t feel settled in a rented house. We will stay in the area probably forever according to my wife and that is OK with me.

I saw the post on this forum for Viscaya and thought it sounded really good ($750K-$820K for 3700-4100 sq. ft) so I figured they probably had the great views of of the power lines or the industrial park or had really funky floorplans or lot issues. “Honey, lets go for a ride”…

First, there were 3-4 couples already in the trailer when I arrived (no models but you can see the homes that were built before the crash). It was very active with several more folks flowing in as we left to walk the lots. All have foundations poured and most are framed to the first level and some of the single stories already are under roof. There are 10 homes in this phase of Cobblecreek Lane and I think they have 38 or so total to build out the lots they purchased.

What I found was a mixed bag. On one side of the street they have the huge upward sloping rear yard and houses located on the ridge above so no view. On the other side about 1/2 of them face the industrial bldgs in Poway. 2 others on this side had excellent view but were already reserved. (agent just opened their sales trailer this week). But there was 1 left that had a fantastic view, no power lines, level back yard and great floorplan.

They have 2 floor plans including a single level with central atrium or a 2 story with a 4 car garage. We walked the single level and liked the house but all had minimal side privacy and the rear view of your own dirt hill!

Then we crossed the street to one on the canyon with a great view. I have to admit I loved the garage and the rest of the floorplan and elevation did not disappoint either. I have probably looked at almost every new community and many resales all the way North to Carlsbad and this seemed to be an incredible home and view with a very “reasonable” price relative to everything else. I have seen some comparable homes that are short sales in the 700-850K range but nothing new and the short sales are of course a reall crap shoot. Ialso am facing a decision point in Q1 and not really wanting to stay in this rental another year.

So there was only 1 left that had the combination we were seeking. Knowing there was no risk to my 10K, feeling it was a great match to our needs and thinking that I might not be the only one who felt that way I decided to be a bit impulsive. So what the hell I put down my $10K non-binding reservation on one house that has a fantastic eastern canyon/mountain view and great privacy with level backyard. I had barely signed the check when one of the other couples approached the agent and wanted to reserve the same home.

This is my 4th home purchase and I have been through a spec build before and really enjoyed it. We can extend our lease month to month if requred so have some flexibility. The homes are supposed to be finished in April but I figure I should expect June to allow for some schedule slips.

So assuming I am financially stable, have very good income and can afford this does anyone see any reason why this might be a mistake? I don’t see these prices dropping much if at all and compared to other areas they are very competitive. I think they can do that because they picked up the lots at the bottom and right now the subs are just happy to get work and bidding projects accordingly.

The pros:
$195/sq foot, large sq. footage, great family floorplan, includes front landscaping, 6% credit IF you use their mortgage broker (have not yet verified if they are competitive of course) and the rest of the neighborhood is already built out and seems stable. (Spoke with several residents who seem to be very happy with their purchase) Garage where I can store all my toys including boat and motorcycle

The Cons:
Stonebridge parkway is a turn off for some
No city lights view and eventually Warmington or another builder could build out the ridge to the East but it would not block the mountain view and would not impact privacy
Mello Roos and HOA will add up to about $500/month
High fire risk (but just about everywhere I want to live is also!)
Builder is a new venture so no guarantee of build quality (But at least I can visit the site as often as I wish during the build and I have been through this process before)

Is anything wrong with this picture or am I missing something that makes this a falling knife? My assumption is that interest rates are likely to move up sometime in the next 12-24 months and deflation or further collapse of the $750K-$1Mil home market in San Diego is not that likely.

Please point out any flaws in my logic, assumptions or just otherwise feel free to comment. What would you do?

[bob2007]

Sounds good for the most part. I actually like that area. Only downside is $500 mello roos and HOA. That would be a problem with resale. But, you say you want to stay for a long time, and are ok with that part, so maybe resale isn’t that big of a problem.

[bob2007]

Sounds good for the most part. I actually like that area. Only downside is $500 mello roos and HOA. That would be a problem with resale. But, you say you want to stay for a long time, and are ok with that part, so maybe resale isn’t that big of a problem.

[bob2007]

Sounds good for the most part. I actually like that area. Only downside is $500 mello roos and HOA. That would be a problem with resale. But, you say you want to stay for a long time, and are ok with that part, so maybe resale isn’t that big of a problem.

[bob2007]

Sounds good for the most part. I actually like that area. Only downside is $500 mello roos and HOA. That would be a problem with resale. But, you say you want to stay for a long time, and are ok with that part, so maybe resale isn’t that big of a problem.

[Author]

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