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CAwireman.
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July 27, 2007 at 2:44 PM #68209July 27, 2007 at 4:04 PM #68241
Ozzie
ParticipantI work out like a fiend so my arteries should be very clean, and supposedly the Wagyu/Kobe beef (which is excellent BTW) contains the “good” fat. Just bought some at Seaside market in Cardiff the other day.
Barring a recession, a Dow at 11,000 would offer some screaming deals. 95% of my equity positions are for the long haul, but I have some cash waiting on the sidelines if things really get out of control. Heck, the PE of the SP 500 is barely above historical averages.
As for this debt bubble, I am more and more wary of the financials because I just don’t know what earnings are real anymore. If they can’t even figure out what the products they are selling to insitutional investors are worth how can we value the company? Smells like Enron. I’d like to hear Warren Buffet’s take on the credit markets. A few years ago I woke up (literally at night I had an epiphany)and asked myself “why am I trying to pick stocks when BRK offers you what is essentially the best mutual fund of all time?” I bought BRK the next day. Hopefully he’ll live until he’s 100 and BRK’s performance will stay steady as she goes.
I think the rest of the market is being thrown out with the bathwater until this credit situation improves. The Wall St. guys number one objective is to make money for themselves so if they are feeling pinched they’ll find a way to pinch the rest of the market.
July 27, 2007 at 4:04 PM #68174ParticipantI work out like a fiend so my arteries should be very clean, and supposedly the Wagyu/Kobe beef (which is excellent BTW) contains the “good” fat. Just bought some at Seaside market in Cardiff the other day.
Barring a recession, a Dow at 11,000 would offer some screaming deals. 95% of my equity positions are for the long haul, but I have some cash waiting on the sidelines if things really get out of control. Heck, the PE of the SP 500 is barely above historical averages.
As for this debt bubble, I am more and more wary of the financials because I just don’t know what earnings are real anymore. If they can’t even figure out what the products they are selling to insitutional investors are worth how can we value the company? Smells like Enron. I’d like to hear Warren Buffet’s take on the credit markets. A few years ago I woke up (literally at night I had an epiphany)and asked myself “why am I trying to pick stocks when BRK offers you what is essentially the best mutual fund of all time?” I bought BRK the next day. Hopefully he’ll live until he’s 100 and BRK’s performance will stay steady as she goes.
I think the rest of the market is being thrown out with the bathwater until this credit situation improves. The Wall St. guys number one objective is to make money for themselves so if they are feeling pinched they’ll find a way to pinch the rest of the market.
July 27, 2007 at 5:33 PM #68220Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantJust as so I cannot be accused of ducking out when the market is dropping, I thought I would post quickly that my timing system still says to be long, so I am staying pat. My open profit on the April stock purchase has dropped down to 6% from about 20%. Boeing is one fifth of it, and it has continued to rise, effectively saving the boat so far. Cat is another 20% of it, and although getting pounded, is still more than 10% above my entry price.
I will admit that I did not see a drop of this magnitude occuring on very little if any fundamental warning of it. Yes there are alot of opinions, but the fundamentals I watch are still heavily on the long side, so I guess I just hold on and hope for the best. My mentor is actually very bullish right now, which even I have to admit, is hard to believe looking at the chart.
For the record, my futures long is about to be stopped out for a loss, but I only have 2 contracts instead of the usual 30 due to it being a low % trade within my parameters going in. When volatility increases this much, I reduce my size way down to lower risk. This is no time to be a hero, it is time to be careful. It is probably a buy about right here, but no add ons for me, I will just ride the longer term trend, until my system says to get out, win or lose.
It would also be a good time for all those that have been short for so long, and getting killed, to cover that position even if you are still a bit upside down. A big bounce at the very least is coming.
Go back in the archives to where I posted about the years ending in 7 summer sharp correction that was ridiculed by that punk that does not seem to be around anymore. It looks like I was off by about one week on that call, a year in advance of it.
July 27, 2007 at 5:33 PM #68288ParticipantJust as so I cannot be accused of ducking out when the market is dropping, I thought I would post quickly that my timing system still says to be long, so I am staying pat. My open profit on the April stock purchase has dropped down to 6% from about 20%. Boeing is one fifth of it, and it has continued to rise, effectively saving the boat so far. Cat is another 20% of it, and although getting pounded, is still more than 10% above my entry price.
I will admit that I did not see a drop of this magnitude occuring on very little if any fundamental warning of it. Yes there are alot of opinions, but the fundamentals I watch are still heavily on the long side, so I guess I just hold on and hope for the best. My mentor is actually very bullish right now, which even I have to admit, is hard to believe looking at the chart.
For the record, my futures long is about to be stopped out for a loss, but I only have 2 contracts instead of the usual 30 due to it being a low % trade within my parameters going in. When volatility increases this much, I reduce my size way down to lower risk. This is no time to be a hero, it is time to be careful. It is probably a buy about right here, but no add ons for me, I will just ride the longer term trend, until my system says to get out, win or lose.
It would also be a good time for all those that have been short for so long, and getting killed, to cover that position even if you are still a bit upside down. A big bounce at the very least is coming.
Go back in the archives to where I posted about the years ending in 7 summer sharp correction that was ridiculed by that punk that does not seem to be around anymore. It looks like I was off by about one week on that call, a year in advance of it.
July 27, 2007 at 5:59 PM #68230cashman
ParticipantOzzie, don’t forget to read what Rich has to say about the valuation of the market titled “U.S. Stock Market Risks” at the top right of this page. PEs are very deceptive right now as we are at the peaks of years of great earnings. That will surely subside. If the Dow breaks 11,750, watch out below, as wave five of the great bull market will have ended.
July 27, 2007 at 5:59 PM #68298ParticipantOzzie, don’t forget to read what Rich has to say about the valuation of the market titled “U.S. Stock Market Risks” at the top right of this page. PEs are very deceptive right now as we are at the peaks of years of great earnings. That will surely subside. If the Dow breaks 11,750, watch out below, as wave five of the great bull market will have ended.
July 27, 2007 at 9:14 PM #68269LookoutBelow
ParticipantThis is JUST the beginning…."Here come Da Pain Train"….
If you trade next week, be DAMNED careful out there ! "Whipsaw" could be the order of the day
July 27, 2007 at 9:14 PM #68338ParticipantThis is JUST the beginning…."Here come Da Pain Train"….
If you trade next week, be DAMNED careful out there ! "Whipsaw" could be the order of the day
July 27, 2007 at 10:15 PM #68291HereWeGo
ParticipantChris-
The one aspect of this whole situation that really bothers the heck out of me is the complete and utter lack of leadership from any of the world markets. The only market that has not been absolutely tied at the apron strings to the NYSE, until today’s action in Mexico, is the much maligned Shanghai Exchange.The other markets have little to no exposure to “subprime” and yet they followed the lead of the NYSE like a pack of inbred poodles. When we needed someone, anyone, to stand up and say “Dumb Yanks”, no one had the cajones to do it.
Pathetic.
July 27, 2007 at 10:15 PM #68360ParticipantChris-
The one aspect of this whole situation that really bothers the heck out of me is the complete and utter lack of leadership from any of the world markets. The only market that has not been absolutely tied at the apron strings to the NYSE, until today’s action in Mexico, is the much maligned Shanghai Exchange.The other markets have little to no exposure to “subprime” and yet they followed the lead of the NYSE like a pack of inbred poodles. When we needed someone, anyone, to stand up and say “Dumb Yanks”, no one had the cajones to do it.
Pathetic.
July 28, 2007 at 8:38 AM #68323ParticipantCashman,
As today’s WSJ points out there has never been a start to a Bear market with the current fundamentals in place. Obviously all bets are off if a recession comes about, but I think the earnings for the stocks I own (oil services, infrastructure plays) will continue to benefit from the world economy. Domestic guys like homebuilders, Home Depot, Countrywide, etc will continue to see earnings tumble through 2008 and I’ll add to some put positions there in the coming weeks, but it’s a big world outside the US and we have some global leaders here who will continue to perform.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
July 28, 2007 at 8:38 AM #68392ParticipantCashman,
As today’s WSJ points out there has never been a start to a Bear market with the current fundamentals in place. Obviously all bets are off if a recession comes about, but I think the earnings for the stocks I own (oil services, infrastructure plays) will continue to benefit from the world economy. Domestic guys like homebuilders, Home Depot, Countrywide, etc will continue to see earnings tumble through 2008 and I’ll add to some put positions there in the coming weeks, but it’s a big world outside the US and we have some global leaders here who will continue to perform.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
July 28, 2007 at 9:02 AM #68326capeman
ParticipantWhere do you stand on the position as a whole? Are we to believe that you waited every day for 12 months to short until the day before yesterday and got the exact high? If not, you are probably at best even on your puts if not still upside down due to time erosion as well as price. Also, % gains on options are less meaningful than the gross dollars made. I know people that talk about 50% returns etc, but they only have a few thousand in, so 50% is not an appreciable amount of gross dollars even though it sounds great at cocktail parties.
Yep, placed my bets on the table on Monday and the CFC earnings triggered the downfall. Half of my total portfolio is short at this point with the only long position being my company stock. The short half of the portfolio saw 300% plus this week with about 10 different short positions. This was one of those weeks you couldn't lose if you were short unless against AAPL or AMZN. With that steep sell-off at the end of day Friday below many support levels on the indices Monday could be very black. I'd even consider selling my company only to be able to buy back cheaper in the near future but I am restricted on that one.
July 28, 2007 at 9:02 AM #68394ParticipantWhere do you stand on the position as a whole? Are we to believe that you waited every day for 12 months to short until the day before yesterday and got the exact high? If not, you are probably at best even on your puts if not still upside down due to time erosion as well as price. Also, % gains on options are less meaningful than the gross dollars made. I know people that talk about 50% returns etc, but they only have a few thousand in, so 50% is not an appreciable amount of gross dollars even though it sounds great at cocktail parties.
Yep, placed my bets on the table on Monday and the CFC earnings triggered the downfall. Half of my total portfolio is short at this point with the only long position being my company stock. The short half of the portfolio saw 300% plus this week with about 10 different short positions. This was one of those weeks you couldn't lose if you were short unless against AAPL or AMZN. With that steep sell-off at the end of day Friday below many support levels on the indices Monday could be very black. I'd even consider selling my company only to be able to buy back cheaper in the near future but I am restricted on that one.
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