stocks

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=moneymaker]Doubled down today. Now I’m 5% down on Ford but will hold it long term. I think they should offer 0% loans on their vehicles, seems to attract the people that can afford to buy![/quote]

Ford is launching driverless cars.

[FlyerInHi]

Somehow I had a hunch about an October surprise. I should have posted my prediction so that could self congratulate…. oh well, too late for that.

[moneymaker]

I’m half in on Ford and half out, so if it dips I buy more, if it goes up I sell! Sold half of stock at profit so I could have some dry powder. As far as the IRS is concerned I haven’t made any money yet, but I know better.

[moneymaker]

Picked up some ATT stock yesterday and some AMD this morning. Flu why do you think AMD crashed? Did you sell a big chunk?

[ltsddd]

I like AT&T. It’s paying decent dividends and stock is just volatile enough to produce decent call option premiums.

[moneymaker]

I agree, though I sold it already I will buy again on the dip. Same goes for Ford. Noticed they are advertising the cheaper models with 0% interest now. Why not sell the Raptor at 0% interest? And I love that they are bringing the Ranger back. Never owned one but think they are a great alternative to the big gas guzzlers.
Took my winnings off the table, when the rest roll in along with dividends, I’ll take those out too.
Would like to buy some Apple but not low enough for me yet.

[henrysd]

I bought bond today. I moved some money in muni money market to long term muni mutual fund.

10 yr treasury yields 3.21% now slightly below 3.23% reached on Oct 5th. But 30 year yield 3.45%, highest since 2014.

I don’t believe longer term inflation theory or a high long bond yield in future. I still have the risk of yield going up more, but the interest difference between my fund and money market will allow some loss and I can still be ahead.

Aging population in developed world and even more serious aging issue will happen to China next a few decades. With Low growth in non-U.S world, slowing economy of China, U.S. in later economic cycle, baby boomers with tons of investable money chasing fixed income, I am betting bond yield will actually drop with 3-5 years time horizon.

[ltsddd]

Cashed out today.

[Coronita]

Do people really feel cashing out and trying to time the market really works for the long run. It seems to go against the grain of portfolio theory and indexing….

I can see if folks want to nudge between cash and investments percentages , but to entirely cash out?

[ltsddd]

For the first time, I moved all my investments in equities that is tax deferred into bonds. About 1/4 of my $$$ are still sitting in various mutual funds. Only b/c I don’t want to get a big tax bill cashing those out.

I’ve been getting a bad feeling about the stock markets.

I could be wrong, but the indices are up about 5-6% for June and don’t see much for it to sustain the upward movement.

[gzz]

I have less than 0 US equities, my shorts are more than longs.

Between SD properties and B grade muni bonds, I am already plenty exposed to a continued economic expansion.

Trying to time the market has worked out pretty well for me. Only on average is it bad advice.

I have read the full annual reports of Snap and Uber. Those are business models that are not even growing much anymore but still losing giant buckets of money. I wish I had timed my short sales better, but I am patient. I had to wait about 18 months before my subprime lending stock shorts fell.

I lost patience shorting RRC and PLAY about 12-18 months ago, missed out on some nice gains by covering too soon. I also missed a bullet, I was short DATA a few years ago, they just jumped on an acquisition.

[Coronita]

the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay financially solvent. I would never do a naked short. I hope you have at least some call options as a hedge.

[Coronita]

have to admit that the folks that recommended a slow drip into index funds over time has been good. I am quite surprised that the s&p500 YTD is close to 17%…. I dont do much these days, as I am trying to significantly reduce my risk exposure , besides letting auto investments get auto deducted into a 401k, 529k, and after tax vanguard index account….seems like boring has saves my butt once again versus trying to guess which way to go. Doubled my contribution to the 529k…..next year, will start taking capital gains distributions from it tax free to pay for a nieceand nephew private K and 1st grade school
tax free……their parents will each gift me back the money in cash. rinse and repeat each year …..better than investing in my own accounts and having to pay capital gains taxes in it…pretty much the same funds in 529k and my own vanguard after tax account. That $20k in distribution starting next year out of 529k for private k-12 will end up being close to $240k tax free distribution that moves that earned money back out, provided the new tax laws don’t change over the next 12 years. the theoretical limit of each 529k account is slightly over $500k… heh heh

[gzz]

I agree, markets can stay irrational for a long time.

My two short positions (Uber and SNAP) are now about 1.2% of my net worth, and I would be comfortable with up to 8%, though not all in one sector.

Many people in San Diego are 200%+ invested in local real estate: e.g., they have a net worth of $400,000 and own a $800,000 house.

I don’t think that is a bad idea given the tax advantages and relatively low price of owning local real estate if you live here. However, in such situation it is also prudent to make your non-RE investments conservatively, or in areas that will benefit from a downturn.

Currently my only non-IRA stock position is in TUR, the Turkey ETF. I entered a couple weeks ago. The p/e of that market is about half that of the USA despite stronger growth. I think despite the instability there, the country is still committed to market capitalism and a recovery to even half of the 2015 price would be a huge return.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=flu] Doubled my contribution to the 529k…..next year, will start taking capital gains distributions from it tax free to pay for a nieceand nephew private K and 1st grade school
tax free……their parents will each gift me back the money in cash. rinse and repeat each year …..better than investing in my own accounts and having to pay capital gains taxes in it…pretty much the same funds in 529k and my own vanguard after tax account. That $20k in distribution starting next year out of 529k for private k-12 will end up being close to $240k tax free distribution that moves that earned money back out, provided the new tax laws don’t change over the next 12 years. the theoretical limit of each 529k account is slightly over $500k… heh heh[/quote]

Isn’t that illegal. You may not be found out by the IRS. But you know what you did.

[Author]

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