Spring Buying Season

[an]

gn, both of those condition are speculation. All I know is that rent for these house last year were on average about $100/month cheaper and these rental are getting snapped up pretty quickly. So I don’t see the rental demand vs supply reversing. I never meant to say that it pencil out as a rental, but it does pencil out as a principal resident for someone who want to buy now. Base on your 20% down, PITI – Tax deduction, I get, about $1300/month (assuming you’re in the 37% tax bracket and 1.1% property tax rate). So, where can you rent a 3bed/2bath house in MM for $1300/month? I’d love to know, cuz I’m looking for a 3bed/2bath house to rent in MM right now.

Also, I’d love to know how you come up w/ the $200-250k # as the bottom and which interest rate you use. Since at today’s rate, you’re talking about P+I = $960-1200/month.

[gn]

Tax deduction, I get, about $1300/month (assuming you're in the 37% tax bracket and 1.1% property tax rate)

The 37% tax rate is pretty high for the demographic in Mira Mesa, don't you think ?

All I know is that rent for these house last year were on average about $100/month cheaper and these rental are getting snapped up pretty quickly.

This is a temporary situation because: there are all of these houses that are being foreclosed & but have not become rental properties. In other words, the rental supply is artificially low.

I'd love to know how you come up w/ the $200-250k # as the bottom and which interest rate you use. Since at today's rate, you're talking about P+I = $960-1200/month

1. A couple of years from now, rents for these houses would be around $1500 – 1600 (because of the increase in rental supply & the impending recession).

2. There is an old saying: "excessive things correct themselves excessively". Translation: Not only that prices will go down to levels where they are "justified by the fundamentals (i.e. rents)". Just as prices "overshot" on the way up, prices will "overshoot" on the way down.

 

[gn]

Tax deduction, I get, about $1300/month (assuming you're in the 37% tax bracket and 1.1% property tax rate)

The 37% tax rate is pretty high for the demographic in Mira Mesa, don't you think ?

All I know is that rent for these house last year were on average about $100/month cheaper and these rental are getting snapped up pretty quickly.

This is a temporary situation because: there are all of these houses that are being foreclosed & but have not become rental properties. In other words, the rental supply is artificially low.

I'd love to know how you come up w/ the $200-250k # as the bottom and which interest rate you use. Since at today's rate, you're talking about P+I = $960-1200/month

1. A couple of years from now, rents for these houses would be around $1500 – 1600 (because of the increase in rental supply & the impending recession).

2. There is an old saying: "excessive things correct themselves excessively". Translation: Not only that prices will go down to levels where they are "justified by the fundamentals (i.e. rents)". Just as prices "overshot" on the way up, prices will "overshoot" on the way down.

 

[gn]

Tax deduction, I get, about $1300/month (assuming you're in the 37% tax bracket and 1.1% property tax rate)

The 37% tax rate is pretty high for the demographic in Mira Mesa, don't you think ?

All I know is that rent for these house last year were on average about $100/month cheaper and these rental are getting snapped up pretty quickly.

This is a temporary situation because: there are all of these houses that are being foreclosed & but have not become rental properties. In other words, the rental supply is artificially low.

I'd love to know how you come up w/ the $200-250k # as the bottom and which interest rate you use. Since at today's rate, you're talking about P+I = $960-1200/month

1. A couple of years from now, rents for these houses would be around $1500 – 1600 (because of the increase in rental supply & the impending recession).

2. There is an old saying: "excessive things correct themselves excessively". Translation: Not only that prices will go down to levels where they are "justified by the fundamentals (i.e. rents)". Just as prices "overshot" on the way up, prices will "overshoot" on the way down.

 

[gn]

Tax deduction, I get, about $1300/month (assuming you're in the 37% tax bracket and 1.1% property tax rate)

The 37% tax rate is pretty high for the demographic in Mira Mesa, don't you think ?

All I know is that rent for these house last year were on average about $100/month cheaper and these rental are getting snapped up pretty quickly.

This is a temporary situation because: there are all of these houses that are being foreclosed & but have not become rental properties. In other words, the rental supply is artificially low.

I'd love to know how you come up w/ the $200-250k # as the bottom and which interest rate you use. Since at today's rate, you're talking about P+I = $960-1200/month

1. A couple of years from now, rents for these houses would be around $1500 – 1600 (because of the increase in rental supply & the impending recession).

2. There is an old saying: "excessive things correct themselves excessively". Translation: Not only that prices will go down to levels where they are "justified by the fundamentals (i.e. rents)". Just as prices "overshot" on the way up, prices will "overshoot" on the way down.

 

[gn]

Tax deduction, I get, about $1300/month (assuming you're in the 37% tax bracket and 1.1% property tax rate)

The 37% tax rate is pretty high for the demographic in Mira Mesa, don't you think ?

All I know is that rent for these house last year were on average about $100/month cheaper and these rental are getting snapped up pretty quickly.

This is a temporary situation because: there are all of these houses that are being foreclosed & but have not become rental properties. In other words, the rental supply is artificially low.

I'd love to know how you come up w/ the $200-250k # as the bottom and which interest rate you use. Since at today's rate, you're talking about P+I = $960-1200/month

1. A couple of years from now, rents for these houses would be around $1500 – 1600 (because of the increase in rental supply & the impending recession).

2. There is an old saying: "excessive things correct themselves excessively". Translation: Not only that prices will go down to levels where they are "justified by the fundamentals (i.e. rents)". Just as prices "overshot" on the way up, prices will "overshoot" on the way down.

 

[NotCranky]

It seems like buying here(Mira Mesa) now makes sense for people who want to pick up a second third etc. house and they have big cash flow by renting the one they are currently occupying. This should be easy to do for people who bought in the 90’s or earlier, they might consider themselves better off by securing current rates and getting the cash flow rolling into the new mortgage instead of letting it stay latent. This may the next generation of successful small time investor/ landlords. They make a lateral move as far as the house quality goes or step up a bit. The risk is pretty good.

[NotCranky]

It seems like buying here(Mira Mesa) now makes sense for people who want to pick up a second third etc. house and they have big cash flow by renting the one they are currently occupying. This should be easy to do for people who bought in the 90’s or earlier, they might consider themselves better off by securing current rates and getting the cash flow rolling into the new mortgage instead of letting it stay latent. This may the next generation of successful small time investor/ landlords. They make a lateral move as far as the house quality goes or step up a bit. The risk is pretty good.

[NotCranky]

It seems like buying here(Mira Mesa) now makes sense for people who want to pick up a second third etc. house and they have big cash flow by renting the one they are currently occupying. This should be easy to do for people who bought in the 90’s or earlier, they might consider themselves better off by securing current rates and getting the cash flow rolling into the new mortgage instead of letting it stay latent. This may the next generation of successful small time investor/ landlords. They make a lateral move as far as the house quality goes or step up a bit. The risk is pretty good.

[NotCranky]

It seems like buying here(Mira Mesa) now makes sense for people who want to pick up a second third etc. house and they have big cash flow by renting the one they are currently occupying. This should be easy to do for people who bought in the 90’s or earlier, they might consider themselves better off by securing current rates and getting the cash flow rolling into the new mortgage instead of letting it stay latent. This may the next generation of successful small time investor/ landlords. They make a lateral move as far as the house quality goes or step up a bit. The risk is pretty good.

[NotCranky]

It seems like buying here(Mira Mesa) now makes sense for people who want to pick up a second third etc. house and they have big cash flow by renting the one they are currently occupying. This should be easy to do for people who bought in the 90’s or earlier, they might consider themselves better off by securing current rates and getting the cash flow rolling into the new mortgage instead of letting it stay latent. This may the next generation of successful small time investor/ landlords. They make a lateral move as far as the house quality goes or step up a bit. The risk is pretty good.

[an]

The 37% tax rate is pretty high for the demographic in Mira Mesa, don't you think ?

37% might be the high end of MM, but 34% is not. Considering, for 2008, 28% federal = $131,450 and $200,300, you're talking about 2 people making $66k/person. That's not too out of the ordinary.

This is a temporary situation because: there are all of these houses that are being foreclosed & but have not become rental properties. In other words, the rental supply is artificially low.

You're speculating that these "phantom" inventory will become rental. Mira Mesa have no new housing inventory, so I don't see how these "phantom" inventory will affect rental rates. The rest of your argument are speculations as well. I don't see data to support your argument.  To me, it's no better than the "we're running out of land" argument from the perma-bulls.

[an]

The 37% tax rate is pretty high for the demographic in Mira Mesa, don't you think ?

37% might be the high end of MM, but 34% is not. Considering, for 2008, 28% federal = $131,450 and $200,300, you're talking about 2 people making $66k/person. That's not too out of the ordinary.

This is a temporary situation because: there are all of these houses that are being foreclosed & but have not become rental properties. In other words, the rental supply is artificially low.

You're speculating that these "phantom" inventory will become rental. Mira Mesa have no new housing inventory, so I don't see how these "phantom" inventory will affect rental rates. The rest of your argument are speculations as well. I don't see data to support your argument.  To me, it's no better than the "we're running out of land" argument from the perma-bulls.

[an]

The 37% tax rate is pretty high for the demographic in Mira Mesa, don't you think ?

37% might be the high end of MM, but 34% is not. Considering, for 2008, 28% federal = $131,450 and $200,300, you're talking about 2 people making $66k/person. That's not too out of the ordinary.

This is a temporary situation because: there are all of these houses that are being foreclosed & but have not become rental properties. In other words, the rental supply is artificially low.

You're speculating that these "phantom" inventory will become rental. Mira Mesa have no new housing inventory, so I don't see how these "phantom" inventory will affect rental rates. The rest of your argument are speculations as well. I don't see data to support your argument.  To me, it's no better than the "we're running out of land" argument from the perma-bulls.

[an]

The 37% tax rate is pretty high for the demographic in Mira Mesa, don't you think ?

37% might be the high end of MM, but 34% is not. Considering, for 2008, 28% federal = $131,450 and $200,300, you're talking about 2 people making $66k/person. That's not too out of the ordinary.

This is a temporary situation because: there are all of these houses that are being foreclosed & but have not become rental properties. In other words, the rental supply is artificially low.

You're speculating that these "phantom" inventory will become rental. Mira Mesa have no new housing inventory, so I don't see how these "phantom" inventory will affect rental rates. The rest of your argument are speculations as well. I don't see data to support your argument.  To me, it's no better than the "we're running out of land" argument from the perma-bulls.

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