Spring Buying Season

[an]

Here’s my take on Mira Mesa and surrounding areas. In short, I think Mira Mesa experienced the majority of its declines already. We’re talking about ~40% off from peak. The question is will we see 45% off peak to trough or 60% and how the remaining 5-15% will play out. We can very well go into a soft landing from here and let inflation eat away the other 5-15%. Right now, mortgage is quite similar to rent, even w/ 0% down. With 20% down, you’re well under the rental rate of the area. If the buying demand doesn’t die down in 3rd and 4th Q, we might be forming a bottom.

Regarding surrounding areas, like PQ, they didn’t rise as much as MM, but they haven’t fallen as badly as MM either. Based on rent, mortgage is still well above rental price. So if we see rent as a fundamental that we must return to, then these areas still have much further to fall than MM.

The lending standard and requirement of 10-20% down will force a contraction of price as well, just like how it was 10-15 years ago. The priced difference between 1300 sq-ft house in MM, and 1800 sq-ft house in PQ wasn’t that huge, probably around 20%. Right now, the gap is more like 40%. Same with Carmel Valley, in 1998, a 1500 sq-ft house in MM, was around $160k while a 2000 sq-ft house in CV was around $260k, which was a 60% premium. The same 1500 sq-ft house in MM right now have fallen back to around $350k. Add that 60% premium will put the price @ ~$560k. However, they’re listing around $700-$750k right now. Even if MM house doesn’t fall anymore, CV is still 20-25% away from that 60% premium. Like Rustico said, it’s much easier to come up w/ 20% down on a $350k house than $560k house.

[gn]

Right now, mortgage is quite similar to rent, even w/ 0% down. With 20% down, you're well under the rental rate of the area.

Asianautica, can you give an example of a rental listing & a similar MLS listing to support this ? While I have no doubt that this will become true, I don't think that MiraMesa is there yet.

[gn]

Right now, mortgage is quite similar to rent, even w/ 0% down. With 20% down, you're well under the rental rate of the area.

Asianautica, can you give an example of a rental listing & a similar MLS listing to support this ? While I have no doubt that this will become true, I don't think that MiraMesa is there yet.

[gn]

Right now, mortgage is quite similar to rent, even w/ 0% down. With 20% down, you're well under the rental rate of the area.

Asianautica, can you give an example of a rental listing & a similar MLS listing to support this ? While I have no doubt that this will become true, I don't think that MiraMesa is there yet.

[gn]

Right now, mortgage is quite similar to rent, even w/ 0% down. With 20% down, you're well under the rental rate of the area.

Asianautica, can you give an example of a rental listing & a similar MLS listing to support this ? While I have no doubt that this will become true, I don't think that MiraMesa is there yet.

[gn]

Right now, mortgage is quite similar to rent, even w/ 0% down. With 20% down, you're well under the rental rate of the area.

Asianautica, can you give an example of a rental listing & a similar MLS listing to support this ? While I have no doubt that this will become true, I don't think that MiraMesa is there yet.

[DWCAP]

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-EFC70961-8371_Menkar_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92126

So less than a day after I post that I am looking for the first 3/2 in MM to fall below 300k, AND that I didnt think it would be till September I find the above. Now I have not lost yet, cause it didnt List below 300k, it listed at 309900. But wow. I am alot more of a bear than most of the other MM posters on here are, but we are heading into the spring selling season and already comps are hitting sub 300k. It sold for 255k in 2001.

Now dont go thinking that I dont recognize the problems with this place. First off, the area. I wouldnt buy next to Camino Ruiz for anything but Free. Like please take this house, no charge, just pay the property tax. It was a REO, which means that you dont get all the facts necessarly. It is small, and even though it was sub 300k, it is still $260/ft2. It doesnt have a large yard and was built in the early 1970’s. It is no jem that ill admit.
However, as per the burn and turn part of my little bet with myself it is a 3/2 SFR under 300k. I may have overestimated the stomach of the banks to take it. Guess MM is gonna be the SD temecula.

Give it 6 months and i am still betting 250k on burners like this. Someone thinks they just got a hell of a deal, I think they just flushed 15%. But hey, they own a house, I dont.

[DWCAP]

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-EFC70961-8371_Menkar_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92126

So less than a day after I post that I am looking for the first 3/2 in MM to fall below 300k, AND that I didnt think it would be till September I find the above. Now I have not lost yet, cause it didnt List below 300k, it listed at 309900. But wow. I am alot more of a bear than most of the other MM posters on here are, but we are heading into the spring selling season and already comps are hitting sub 300k. It sold for 255k in 2001.

Now dont go thinking that I dont recognize the problems with this place. First off, the area. I wouldnt buy next to Camino Ruiz for anything but Free. Like please take this house, no charge, just pay the property tax. It was a REO, which means that you dont get all the facts necessarly. It is small, and even though it was sub 300k, it is still $260/ft2. It doesnt have a large yard and was built in the early 1970’s. It is no jem that ill admit.
However, as per the burn and turn part of my little bet with myself it is a 3/2 SFR under 300k. I may have overestimated the stomach of the banks to take it. Guess MM is gonna be the SD temecula.

Give it 6 months and i am still betting 250k on burners like this. Someone thinks they just got a hell of a deal, I think they just flushed 15%. But hey, they own a house, I dont.

[DWCAP]

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-EFC70961-8371_Menkar_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92126

So less than a day after I post that I am looking for the first 3/2 in MM to fall below 300k, AND that I didnt think it would be till September I find the above. Now I have not lost yet, cause it didnt List below 300k, it listed at 309900. But wow. I am alot more of a bear than most of the other MM posters on here are, but we are heading into the spring selling season and already comps are hitting sub 300k. It sold for 255k in 2001.

Now dont go thinking that I dont recognize the problems with this place. First off, the area. I wouldnt buy next to Camino Ruiz for anything but Free. Like please take this house, no charge, just pay the property tax. It was a REO, which means that you dont get all the facts necessarly. It is small, and even though it was sub 300k, it is still $260/ft2. It doesnt have a large yard and was built in the early 1970’s. It is no jem that ill admit.
However, as per the burn and turn part of my little bet with myself it is a 3/2 SFR under 300k. I may have overestimated the stomach of the banks to take it. Guess MM is gonna be the SD temecula.

Give it 6 months and i am still betting 250k on burners like this. Someone thinks they just got a hell of a deal, I think they just flushed 15%. But hey, they own a house, I dont.

[DWCAP]

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-EFC70961-8371_Menkar_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92126

So less than a day after I post that I am looking for the first 3/2 in MM to fall below 300k, AND that I didnt think it would be till September I find the above. Now I have not lost yet, cause it didnt List below 300k, it listed at 309900. But wow. I am alot more of a bear than most of the other MM posters on here are, but we are heading into the spring selling season and already comps are hitting sub 300k. It sold for 255k in 2001.

Now dont go thinking that I dont recognize the problems with this place. First off, the area. I wouldnt buy next to Camino Ruiz for anything but Free. Like please take this house, no charge, just pay the property tax. It was a REO, which means that you dont get all the facts necessarly. It is small, and even though it was sub 300k, it is still $260/ft2. It doesnt have a large yard and was built in the early 1970’s. It is no jem that ill admit.
However, as per the burn and turn part of my little bet with myself it is a 3/2 SFR under 300k. I may have overestimated the stomach of the banks to take it. Guess MM is gonna be the SD temecula.

Give it 6 months and i am still betting 250k on burners like this. Someone thinks they just got a hell of a deal, I think they just flushed 15%. But hey, they own a house, I dont.

[DWCAP]

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-EFC70961-8371_Menkar_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92126

So less than a day after I post that I am looking for the first 3/2 in MM to fall below 300k, AND that I didnt think it would be till September I find the above. Now I have not lost yet, cause it didnt List below 300k, it listed at 309900. But wow. I am alot more of a bear than most of the other MM posters on here are, but we are heading into the spring selling season and already comps are hitting sub 300k. It sold for 255k in 2001.

Now dont go thinking that I dont recognize the problems with this place. First off, the area. I wouldnt buy next to Camino Ruiz for anything but Free. Like please take this house, no charge, just pay the property tax. It was a REO, which means that you dont get all the facts necessarly. It is small, and even though it was sub 300k, it is still $260/ft2. It doesnt have a large yard and was built in the early 1970’s. It is no jem that ill admit.
However, as per the burn and turn part of my little bet with myself it is a 3/2 SFR under 300k. I may have overestimated the stomach of the banks to take it. Guess MM is gonna be the SD temecula.

Give it 6 months and i am still betting 250k on burners like this. Someone thinks they just got a hell of a deal, I think they just flushed 15%. But hey, they own a house, I dont.

[an]

The house DWCAP just posted can probably rent for around $1700/month if it’s in livable condition. @ $300k w/ 6% interest rate and 0% down, you’re looking @ P+I = $1800/month.

Then there’s this one: Linky. @ $335k w/ 6% interest rate and 0% down, you’re looking @ P+I = $2000/month. This one more upgraded w/ granite and new cabinets. It can probably rent for around $1800/month. So yes, they’re pretty close to each other. If you have great credit, right now, you can probably get around 5% w/ some points. Since you can’t get 100% financing anymore, if you put 20% down, your mortgage would be $1440/month for the first house and $1600/month for the 2nd house.

Do you see where I’m going w/ this? By no mean would I buy these houses(personal preference), but it’s getting to a point where Realtor can claim it’s cheaper to buy than rent (w/out using ARM or exotic loans) and J6pk will believe it.

[an]

The house DWCAP just posted can probably rent for around $1700/month if it’s in livable condition. @ $300k w/ 6% interest rate and 0% down, you’re looking @ P+I = $1800/month.

Then there’s this one: Linky. @ $335k w/ 6% interest rate and 0% down, you’re looking @ P+I = $2000/month. This one more upgraded w/ granite and new cabinets. It can probably rent for around $1800/month. So yes, they’re pretty close to each other. If you have great credit, right now, you can probably get around 5% w/ some points. Since you can’t get 100% financing anymore, if you put 20% down, your mortgage would be $1440/month for the first house and $1600/month for the 2nd house.

Do you see where I’m going w/ this? By no mean would I buy these houses(personal preference), but it’s getting to a point where Realtor can claim it’s cheaper to buy than rent (w/out using ARM or exotic loans) and J6pk will believe it.

[an]

The house DWCAP just posted can probably rent for around $1700/month if it’s in livable condition. @ $300k w/ 6% interest rate and 0% down, you’re looking @ P+I = $1800/month.

Then there’s this one: Linky. @ $335k w/ 6% interest rate and 0% down, you’re looking @ P+I = $2000/month. This one more upgraded w/ granite and new cabinets. It can probably rent for around $1800/month. So yes, they’re pretty close to each other. If you have great credit, right now, you can probably get around 5% w/ some points. Since you can’t get 100% financing anymore, if you put 20% down, your mortgage would be $1440/month for the first house and $1600/month for the 2nd house.

Do you see where I’m going w/ this? By no mean would I buy these houses(personal preference), but it’s getting to a point where Realtor can claim it’s cheaper to buy than rent (w/out using ARM or exotic loans) and J6pk will believe it.

[an]

The house DWCAP just posted can probably rent for around $1700/month if it’s in livable condition. @ $300k w/ 6% interest rate and 0% down, you’re looking @ P+I = $1800/month.

Then there’s this one: Linky. @ $335k w/ 6% interest rate and 0% down, you’re looking @ P+I = $2000/month. This one more upgraded w/ granite and new cabinets. It can probably rent for around $1800/month. So yes, they’re pretty close to each other. If you have great credit, right now, you can probably get around 5% w/ some points. Since you can’t get 100% financing anymore, if you put 20% down, your mortgage would be $1440/month for the first house and $1600/month for the 2nd house.

Do you see where I’m going w/ this? By no mean would I buy these houses(personal preference), but it’s getting to a point where Realtor can claim it’s cheaper to buy than rent (w/out using ARM or exotic loans) and J6pk will believe it.

[Author]

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