Spring Buying Season

[barnaby33]

Speaking of alcohol, how come none of the financial posts about the falling dollar and gold prices point out the most important part of currency rates, the fact that bordeaux prices are rising, I don’t need any gold, but I need my wine.

Because that is FAR to painful to talk about. I mean housing is one thing but good wine, thats a building block of a functional life. Might I suggest switching to Italian, stock up on the 01’s while you can as those are pretty reasonably priced. Costco (here in SD) has the 01 Paolo Scavino Barolo for 40.

Speaking of Italian I do most of my buying at Wine Exchange in Orange. They have a huge selection and the best pricing in SoCal. Its Disneyland for winos.

Josh

[djrobsd]

I don’t want to see any whining about the price of wine!! I just got back from Florida last week, and the $5 dollar bottles of wines we buy here are $15-20 there. We’re really spoiled in California to have such easy access to the best wines in the world right here in our own backyard. One of the managers of a restaurant I ate at in FL said they only get 1 case of Rombauer chardonnay a year and it costs them a fortune. Here, I can pick it up at SDWC pretty much any time, except when they run out of course. 😉

Now if you want French wine for cheap, move to France. It blows me away how cheap the wine is there, but of course with the horrible exchange rate, it’s pretty expensive for us Americans to go buy it.

[djrobsd]

I don’t want to see any whining about the price of wine!! I just got back from Florida last week, and the $5 dollar bottles of wines we buy here are $15-20 there. We’re really spoiled in California to have such easy access to the best wines in the world right here in our own backyard. One of the managers of a restaurant I ate at in FL said they only get 1 case of Rombauer chardonnay a year and it costs them a fortune. Here, I can pick it up at SDWC pretty much any time, except when they run out of course. 😉

Now if you want French wine for cheap, move to France. It blows me away how cheap the wine is there, but of course with the horrible exchange rate, it’s pretty expensive for us Americans to go buy it.

[djrobsd]

I don’t want to see any whining about the price of wine!! I just got back from Florida last week, and the $5 dollar bottles of wines we buy here are $15-20 there. We’re really spoiled in California to have such easy access to the best wines in the world right here in our own backyard. One of the managers of a restaurant I ate at in FL said they only get 1 case of Rombauer chardonnay a year and it costs them a fortune. Here, I can pick it up at SDWC pretty much any time, except when they run out of course. 😉

Now if you want French wine for cheap, move to France. It blows me away how cheap the wine is there, but of course with the horrible exchange rate, it’s pretty expensive for us Americans to go buy it.

[djrobsd]

I don’t want to see any whining about the price of wine!! I just got back from Florida last week, and the $5 dollar bottles of wines we buy here are $15-20 there. We’re really spoiled in California to have such easy access to the best wines in the world right here in our own backyard. One of the managers of a restaurant I ate at in FL said they only get 1 case of Rombauer chardonnay a year and it costs them a fortune. Here, I can pick it up at SDWC pretty much any time, except when they run out of course. 😉

Now if you want French wine for cheap, move to France. It blows me away how cheap the wine is there, but of course with the horrible exchange rate, it’s pretty expensive for us Americans to go buy it.

[djrobsd]

I don’t want to see any whining about the price of wine!! I just got back from Florida last week, and the $5 dollar bottles of wines we buy here are $15-20 there. We’re really spoiled in California to have such easy access to the best wines in the world right here in our own backyard. One of the managers of a restaurant I ate at in FL said they only get 1 case of Rombauer chardonnay a year and it costs them a fortune. Here, I can pick it up at SDWC pretty much any time, except when they run out of course. 😉

Now if you want French wine for cheap, move to France. It blows me away how cheap the wine is there, but of course with the horrible exchange rate, it’s pretty expensive for us Americans to go buy it.

[NotCranky]

SDR
The Mira Mesa Activity caught me be surprise this week.A client, who I thought was waiting to get out of Mira Mesa, brought up buying a second house there.There are indeed many pendings. I checked sales for the last calendar month and there were only 2 over last year. My guess is that failure rate for escrows will be pretty high or it will take a long time for some of these properties to close. Still,offer activity and pendings are pretty surprising. I checked the surrounding areas, which are all higher priced of course. It looks for the most part like activity matches last year pretty closely or that sales volume will be even lower.

This comparison has brought up a new concept for a possible trend. “Flight to Cheap”. This seems to make sense. Geographically, Mira Mesa is much like the other higher priced areas but is on fire by comparison. It is interesting that a year year and a half back. We were discussing “flight to quality” with regards to CV. Which was relatively on fire at the time. Money was still easy to get in large quantities then now it is not.

The “Flight to Cheap” Syndrome may get stronger for several reason. Buyers want to hedge potential losses with modesty(what a concept). Money is tight, probably especially down payment money. It is easier to come up with 10-20% down on 350K than 650K.

Now the question bothering me is… what happens after this hypothetical flight to cheap ? Is Mira Mesa going to find support first and the surrounding areas come down relatively? Is this a false floor and “cheap” ain’t “cheap enough yet(even in Mira Mesa)? I am thinking some of both but I am feeling like making predictions gets sightly more dangerous as time and price declines go by.On the other hand I don’t want to haphazardly slip into inuendo because of a few sales or pending sales.

[NotCranky]

SDR
The Mira Mesa Activity caught me be surprise this week.A client, who I thought was waiting to get out of Mira Mesa, brought up buying a second house there.There are indeed many pendings. I checked sales for the last calendar month and there were only 2 over last year. My guess is that failure rate for escrows will be pretty high or it will take a long time for some of these properties to close. Still,offer activity and pendings are pretty surprising. I checked the surrounding areas, which are all higher priced of course. It looks for the most part like activity matches last year pretty closely or that sales volume will be even lower.

This comparison has brought up a new concept for a possible trend. “Flight to Cheap”. This seems to make sense. Geographically, Mira Mesa is much like the other higher priced areas but is on fire by comparison. It is interesting that a year year and a half back. We were discussing “flight to quality” with regards to CV. Which was relatively on fire at the time. Money was still easy to get in large quantities then now it is not.

The “Flight to Cheap” Syndrome may get stronger for several reason. Buyers want to hedge potential losses with modesty(what a concept). Money is tight, probably especially down payment money. It is easier to come up with 10-20% down on 350K than 650K.

Now the question bothering me is… what happens after this hypothetical flight to cheap ? Is Mira Mesa going to find support first and the surrounding areas come down relatively? Is this a false floor and “cheap” ain’t “cheap enough yet(even in Mira Mesa)? I am thinking some of both but I am feeling like making predictions gets sightly more dangerous as time and price declines go by.On the other hand I don’t want to haphazardly slip into inuendo because of a few sales or pending sales.

[NotCranky]

SDR
The Mira Mesa Activity caught me be surprise this week.A client, who I thought was waiting to get out of Mira Mesa, brought up buying a second house there.There are indeed many pendings. I checked sales for the last calendar month and there were only 2 over last year. My guess is that failure rate for escrows will be pretty high or it will take a long time for some of these properties to close. Still,offer activity and pendings are pretty surprising. I checked the surrounding areas, which are all higher priced of course. It looks for the most part like activity matches last year pretty closely or that sales volume will be even lower.

This comparison has brought up a new concept for a possible trend. “Flight to Cheap”. This seems to make sense. Geographically, Mira Mesa is much like the other higher priced areas but is on fire by comparison. It is interesting that a year year and a half back. We were discussing “flight to quality” with regards to CV. Which was relatively on fire at the time. Money was still easy to get in large quantities then now it is not.

The “Flight to Cheap” Syndrome may get stronger for several reason. Buyers want to hedge potential losses with modesty(what a concept). Money is tight, probably especially down payment money. It is easier to come up with 10-20% down on 350K than 650K.

Now the question bothering me is… what happens after this hypothetical flight to cheap ? Is Mira Mesa going to find support first and the surrounding areas come down relatively? Is this a false floor and “cheap” ain’t “cheap enough yet(even in Mira Mesa)? I am thinking some of both but I am feeling like making predictions gets sightly more dangerous as time and price declines go by.On the other hand I don’t want to haphazardly slip into inuendo because of a few sales or pending sales.

[NotCranky]

SDR
The Mira Mesa Activity caught me be surprise this week.A client, who I thought was waiting to get out of Mira Mesa, brought up buying a second house there.There are indeed many pendings. I checked sales for the last calendar month and there were only 2 over last year. My guess is that failure rate for escrows will be pretty high or it will take a long time for some of these properties to close. Still,offer activity and pendings are pretty surprising. I checked the surrounding areas, which are all higher priced of course. It looks for the most part like activity matches last year pretty closely or that sales volume will be even lower.

This comparison has brought up a new concept for a possible trend. “Flight to Cheap”. This seems to make sense. Geographically, Mira Mesa is much like the other higher priced areas but is on fire by comparison. It is interesting that a year year and a half back. We were discussing “flight to quality” with regards to CV. Which was relatively on fire at the time. Money was still easy to get in large quantities then now it is not.

The “Flight to Cheap” Syndrome may get stronger for several reason. Buyers want to hedge potential losses with modesty(what a concept). Money is tight, probably especially down payment money. It is easier to come up with 10-20% down on 350K than 650K.

Now the question bothering me is… what happens after this hypothetical flight to cheap ? Is Mira Mesa going to find support first and the surrounding areas come down relatively? Is this a false floor and “cheap” ain’t “cheap enough yet(even in Mira Mesa)? I am thinking some of both but I am feeling like making predictions gets sightly more dangerous as time and price declines go by.On the other hand I don’t want to haphazardly slip into inuendo because of a few sales or pending sales.

[NotCranky]

SDR
The Mira Mesa Activity caught me be surprise this week.A client, who I thought was waiting to get out of Mira Mesa, brought up buying a second house there.There are indeed many pendings. I checked sales for the last calendar month and there were only 2 over last year. My guess is that failure rate for escrows will be pretty high or it will take a long time for some of these properties to close. Still,offer activity and pendings are pretty surprising. I checked the surrounding areas, which are all higher priced of course. It looks for the most part like activity matches last year pretty closely or that sales volume will be even lower.

This comparison has brought up a new concept for a possible trend. “Flight to Cheap”. This seems to make sense. Geographically, Mira Mesa is much like the other higher priced areas but is on fire by comparison. It is interesting that a year year and a half back. We were discussing “flight to quality” with regards to CV. Which was relatively on fire at the time. Money was still easy to get in large quantities then now it is not.

The “Flight to Cheap” Syndrome may get stronger for several reason. Buyers want to hedge potential losses with modesty(what a concept). Money is tight, probably especially down payment money. It is easier to come up with 10-20% down on 350K than 650K.

Now the question bothering me is… what happens after this hypothetical flight to cheap ? Is Mira Mesa going to find support first and the surrounding areas come down relatively? Is this a false floor and “cheap” ain’t “cheap enough yet(even in Mira Mesa)? I am thinking some of both but I am feeling like making predictions gets sightly more dangerous as time and price declines go by.On the other hand I don’t want to haphazardly slip into inuendo because of a few sales or pending sales.

[an]

Here’s my take on Mira Mesa and surrounding areas. In short, I think Mira Mesa experienced the majority of its declines already. We’re talking about ~40% off from peak. The question is will we see 45% off peak to trough or 60% and how the remaining 5-15% will play out. We can very well go into a soft landing from here and let inflation eat away the other 5-15%. Right now, mortgage is quite similar to rent, even w/ 0% down. With 20% down, you’re well under the rental rate of the area. If the buying demand doesn’t die down in 3rd and 4th Q, we might be forming a bottom.

Regarding surrounding areas, like PQ, they didn’t rise as much as MM, but they haven’t fallen as badly as MM either. Based on rent, mortgage is still well above rental price. So if we see rent as a fundamental that we must return to, then these areas still have much further to fall than MM.

The lending standard and requirement of 10-20% down will force a contraction of price as well, just like how it was 10-15 years ago. The priced difference between 1300 sq-ft house in MM, and 1800 sq-ft house in PQ wasn’t that huge, probably around 20%. Right now, the gap is more like 40%. Same with Carmel Valley, in 1998, a 1500 sq-ft house in MM, was around $160k while a 2000 sq-ft house in CV was around $260k, which was a 60% premium. The same 1500 sq-ft house in MM right now have fallen back to around $350k. Add that 60% premium will put the price @ ~$560k. However, they’re listing around $700-$750k right now. Even if MM house doesn’t fall anymore, CV is still 20-25% away from that 60% premium. Like Rustico said, it’s much easier to come up w/ 20% down on a $350k house than $560k house.

[an]

Here’s my take on Mira Mesa and surrounding areas. In short, I think Mira Mesa experienced the majority of its declines already. We’re talking about ~40% off from peak. The question is will we see 45% off peak to trough or 60% and how the remaining 5-15% will play out. We can very well go into a soft landing from here and let inflation eat away the other 5-15%. Right now, mortgage is quite similar to rent, even w/ 0% down. With 20% down, you’re well under the rental rate of the area. If the buying demand doesn’t die down in 3rd and 4th Q, we might be forming a bottom.

Regarding surrounding areas, like PQ, they didn’t rise as much as MM, but they haven’t fallen as badly as MM either. Based on rent, mortgage is still well above rental price. So if we see rent as a fundamental that we must return to, then these areas still have much further to fall than MM.

The lending standard and requirement of 10-20% down will force a contraction of price as well, just like how it was 10-15 years ago. The priced difference between 1300 sq-ft house in MM, and 1800 sq-ft house in PQ wasn’t that huge, probably around 20%. Right now, the gap is more like 40%. Same with Carmel Valley, in 1998, a 1500 sq-ft house in MM, was around $160k while a 2000 sq-ft house in CV was around $260k, which was a 60% premium. The same 1500 sq-ft house in MM right now have fallen back to around $350k. Add that 60% premium will put the price @ ~$560k. However, they’re listing around $700-$750k right now. Even if MM house doesn’t fall anymore, CV is still 20-25% away from that 60% premium. Like Rustico said, it’s much easier to come up w/ 20% down on a $350k house than $560k house.

[an]

Here’s my take on Mira Mesa and surrounding areas. In short, I think Mira Mesa experienced the majority of its declines already. We’re talking about ~40% off from peak. The question is will we see 45% off peak to trough or 60% and how the remaining 5-15% will play out. We can very well go into a soft landing from here and let inflation eat away the other 5-15%. Right now, mortgage is quite similar to rent, even w/ 0% down. With 20% down, you’re well under the rental rate of the area. If the buying demand doesn’t die down in 3rd and 4th Q, we might be forming a bottom.

Regarding surrounding areas, like PQ, they didn’t rise as much as MM, but they haven’t fallen as badly as MM either. Based on rent, mortgage is still well above rental price. So if we see rent as a fundamental that we must return to, then these areas still have much further to fall than MM.

The lending standard and requirement of 10-20% down will force a contraction of price as well, just like how it was 10-15 years ago. The priced difference between 1300 sq-ft house in MM, and 1800 sq-ft house in PQ wasn’t that huge, probably around 20%. Right now, the gap is more like 40%. Same with Carmel Valley, in 1998, a 1500 sq-ft house in MM, was around $160k while a 2000 sq-ft house in CV was around $260k, which was a 60% premium. The same 1500 sq-ft house in MM right now have fallen back to around $350k. Add that 60% premium will put the price @ ~$560k. However, they’re listing around $700-$750k right now. Even if MM house doesn’t fall anymore, CV is still 20-25% away from that 60% premium. Like Rustico said, it’s much easier to come up w/ 20% down on a $350k house than $560k house.

[an]

Here’s my take on Mira Mesa and surrounding areas. In short, I think Mira Mesa experienced the majority of its declines already. We’re talking about ~40% off from peak. The question is will we see 45% off peak to trough or 60% and how the remaining 5-15% will play out. We can very well go into a soft landing from here and let inflation eat away the other 5-15%. Right now, mortgage is quite similar to rent, even w/ 0% down. With 20% down, you’re well under the rental rate of the area. If the buying demand doesn’t die down in 3rd and 4th Q, we might be forming a bottom.

Regarding surrounding areas, like PQ, they didn’t rise as much as MM, but they haven’t fallen as badly as MM either. Based on rent, mortgage is still well above rental price. So if we see rent as a fundamental that we must return to, then these areas still have much further to fall than MM.

The lending standard and requirement of 10-20% down will force a contraction of price as well, just like how it was 10-15 years ago. The priced difference between 1300 sq-ft house in MM, and 1800 sq-ft house in PQ wasn’t that huge, probably around 20%. Right now, the gap is more like 40%. Same with Carmel Valley, in 1998, a 1500 sq-ft house in MM, was around $160k while a 2000 sq-ft house in CV was around $260k, which was a 60% premium. The same 1500 sq-ft house in MM right now have fallen back to around $350k. Add that 60% premium will put the price @ ~$560k. However, they’re listing around $700-$750k right now. Even if MM house doesn’t fall anymore, CV is still 20-25% away from that 60% premium. Like Rustico said, it’s much easier to come up w/ 20% down on a $350k house than $560k house.

[Author]

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