Spring Buying Season

[stansd]

Great post, SDR…very insightful-I wouldn’t have guessed there would be those kinds of downs floating around PQ. That said, I believe much of these downs are still being funded from bubble money-sell high, buy high. Lop another 10% off the SD market, and a number of those downs evaporate and a number more shrink sizably.

I think much of what moves the market still comes down to the entry level home buyer who supports the rest of the pyramid. I have a lot of friends in that demographic-the DINK’s who are both engineers have no problem coming up with the down. There are a good number of these around. There are also a lot of more average folks making 70K-90K/HH, and none of these can fund it. That’s the demographic that’s got to be able to buy in before we hit an equilibrium…currently, many of these are leaving the state, and many others are quietly suffering and will leave in the future.

Stan

Stan

[SD Realtor]

Hi Stan –

Yeah I was actually pretty surprised as well. The money could be move up money like you said. Again, it doesn’t matter to me as it is not a metric that I look at regularly although it is an interesting statistic. As long as volume is moving down then that suits me fine. The demo you mentioned may be what is needed to hit that equilibrium and it will happen at different times in different areas. The secular trend is locked in and I am not at all surprised to see spring activity. It will come and go though. As Bugs posted overall the median moves are historical so if we look at it like that then things are moving right along. People have money and will continue to have money and I see no major shifts unless layoffs of 6 figure salaries start to happen.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Stan –

Yeah I was actually pretty surprised as well. The money could be move up money like you said. Again, it doesn’t matter to me as it is not a metric that I look at regularly although it is an interesting statistic. As long as volume is moving down then that suits me fine. The demo you mentioned may be what is needed to hit that equilibrium and it will happen at different times in different areas. The secular trend is locked in and I am not at all surprised to see spring activity. It will come and go though. As Bugs posted overall the median moves are historical so if we look at it like that then things are moving right along. People have money and will continue to have money and I see no major shifts unless layoffs of 6 figure salaries start to happen.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Stan –

Yeah I was actually pretty surprised as well. The money could be move up money like you said. Again, it doesn’t matter to me as it is not a metric that I look at regularly although it is an interesting statistic. As long as volume is moving down then that suits me fine. The demo you mentioned may be what is needed to hit that equilibrium and it will happen at different times in different areas. The secular trend is locked in and I am not at all surprised to see spring activity. It will come and go though. As Bugs posted overall the median moves are historical so if we look at it like that then things are moving right along. People have money and will continue to have money and I see no major shifts unless layoffs of 6 figure salaries start to happen.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Stan –

Yeah I was actually pretty surprised as well. The money could be move up money like you said. Again, it doesn’t matter to me as it is not a metric that I look at regularly although it is an interesting statistic. As long as volume is moving down then that suits me fine. The demo you mentioned may be what is needed to hit that equilibrium and it will happen at different times in different areas. The secular trend is locked in and I am not at all surprised to see spring activity. It will come and go though. As Bugs posted overall the median moves are historical so if we look at it like that then things are moving right along. People have money and will continue to have money and I see no major shifts unless layoffs of 6 figure salaries start to happen.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Stan –

Yeah I was actually pretty surprised as well. The money could be move up money like you said. Again, it doesn’t matter to me as it is not a metric that I look at regularly although it is an interesting statistic. As long as volume is moving down then that suits me fine. The demo you mentioned may be what is needed to hit that equilibrium and it will happen at different times in different areas. The secular trend is locked in and I am not at all surprised to see spring activity. It will come and go though. As Bugs posted overall the median moves are historical so if we look at it like that then things are moving right along. People have money and will continue to have money and I see no major shifts unless layoffs of 6 figure salaries start to happen.

SD Realtor

[sdnerd]

I’m not surprised about the 20% down payments – but what does surprise me a bit are some of the much larger ones (and the % of them from your sampling). 50% down payment on a $600-700k house, etc.

I would guess those are people who did sell at the top, and need to move the cash into a new purchase.

And I am still shocked about the perception that an $80k/year income is inadequate to save up a down payment. Assuming you live reasonably, that is still more then enough to save up quite a big chunk of money after a few years. And a dual income couple making that much money (is most likely) either very young – or probably shouldn’t be buying in CV, PQ, MM, etc but somewhere a bit more in-line with their salary ranges.

[sdnerd]

I’m not surprised about the 20% down payments – but what does surprise me a bit are some of the much larger ones (and the % of them from your sampling). 50% down payment on a $600-700k house, etc.

I would guess those are people who did sell at the top, and need to move the cash into a new purchase.

And I am still shocked about the perception that an $80k/year income is inadequate to save up a down payment. Assuming you live reasonably, that is still more then enough to save up quite a big chunk of money after a few years. And a dual income couple making that much money (is most likely) either very young – or probably shouldn’t be buying in CV, PQ, MM, etc but somewhere a bit more in-line with their salary ranges.

[sdnerd]

I’m not surprised about the 20% down payments – but what does surprise me a bit are some of the much larger ones (and the % of them from your sampling). 50% down payment on a $600-700k house, etc.

I would guess those are people who did sell at the top, and need to move the cash into a new purchase.

And I am still shocked about the perception that an $80k/year income is inadequate to save up a down payment. Assuming you live reasonably, that is still more then enough to save up quite a big chunk of money after a few years. And a dual income couple making that much money (is most likely) either very young – or probably shouldn’t be buying in CV, PQ, MM, etc but somewhere a bit more in-line with their salary ranges.

[sdnerd]

I’m not surprised about the 20% down payments – but what does surprise me a bit are some of the much larger ones (and the % of them from your sampling). 50% down payment on a $600-700k house, etc.

I would guess those are people who did sell at the top, and need to move the cash into a new purchase.

And I am still shocked about the perception that an $80k/year income is inadequate to save up a down payment. Assuming you live reasonably, that is still more then enough to save up quite a big chunk of money after a few years. And a dual income couple making that much money (is most likely) either very young – or probably shouldn’t be buying in CV, PQ, MM, etc but somewhere a bit more in-line with their salary ranges.

[sdnerd]

I’m not surprised about the 20% down payments – but what does surprise me a bit are some of the much larger ones (and the % of them from your sampling). 50% down payment on a $600-700k house, etc.

I would guess those are people who did sell at the top, and need to move the cash into a new purchase.

And I am still shocked about the perception that an $80k/year income is inadequate to save up a down payment. Assuming you live reasonably, that is still more then enough to save up quite a big chunk of money after a few years. And a dual income couple making that much money (is most likely) either very young – or probably shouldn’t be buying in CV, PQ, MM, etc but somewhere a bit more in-line with their salary ranges.

[patientlywaiting]

I’m not surprised at all with the down-payments. People are flexible and will come up with ways to buy if they want to qualify.

In other countries (such as Italy or Greece) where it’s common to pay cash for houses, people find ways to buy houses. But that doesn’t mean they saved up the whole amount and that they don’t owe money to someone.

Often times, debt owed to hard-money lenders who will beat you up if you don’t pay up, or to relatives is less risky that mortgage debt. The same is true for immigrant communities in America.

[patientlywaiting]

I’m not surprised at all with the down-payments. People are flexible and will come up with ways to buy if they want to qualify.

In other countries (such as Italy or Greece) where it’s common to pay cash for houses, people find ways to buy houses. But that doesn’t mean they saved up the whole amount and that they don’t owe money to someone.

Often times, debt owed to hard-money lenders who will beat you up if you don’t pay up, or to relatives is less risky that mortgage debt. The same is true for immigrant communities in America.

[patientlywaiting]

I’m not surprised at all with the down-payments. People are flexible and will come up with ways to buy if they want to qualify.

In other countries (such as Italy or Greece) where it’s common to pay cash for houses, people find ways to buy houses. But that doesn’t mean they saved up the whole amount and that they don’t owe money to someone.

Often times, debt owed to hard-money lenders who will beat you up if you don’t pay up, or to relatives is less risky that mortgage debt. The same is true for immigrant communities in America.

[patientlywaiting]

I’m not surprised at all with the down-payments. People are flexible and will come up with ways to buy if they want to qualify.

In other countries (such as Italy or Greece) where it’s common to pay cash for houses, people find ways to buy houses. But that doesn’t mean they saved up the whole amount and that they don’t owe money to someone.

Often times, debt owed to hard-money lenders who will beat you up if you don’t pay up, or to relatives is less risky that mortgage debt. The same is true for immigrant communities in America.

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